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RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears

Goldhedge

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RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
Clients told to seek safety of Bunds and Treasuries. 'This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small'

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
7:54PM GMT 11 Jan 2016

RBS has advised clients to brace for a “cataclysmic year” and a global deflationary crisis, warning that major stock markets could fall by a fifth and oil may plummet to $16 a barrel.

The bank’s credit team said markets are flashing stress alerts akin to the turbulent months before the Lehman crisis in 2008. “Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small,” it said in a client note.

Andrew Roberts, the bank’s credit chief, said that global trade and loans are contracting, a nasty cocktail for corporate balance sheets and equity earnings. This is particularly ominous given that global debt ratios have reached record highs.

“China has set off a major correction and it is going to snowball. Equities and credit have become very dangerous, and we have hardly even begun to retrace the 'Goldlocks love-in' of the last two years,” he said.

Mr Roberts expects Wall Street and European stocks to fall by 10pc to 20pc, with even an deeper slide for the FTSE 100 given its high weighting of energy and commodities companies. “London is vulnerable to a negative shock. All these people who are ‘long’ oil and mining companies thinking that the dividends are safe are going to discover that they’re not at all safe,” he said.

More here:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-everything-as-deflationary-crisis-nears.html

 

Merlin

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Thanks, I needed that. My equity accounts are already way off their 2007 highs. I've probably taken $100,000 in distributions since 2007. But that leaves $300,000 in losses. Peter Schiff has not been right about foreign shares being a safe place to invest in the eight years I've followed his advice. He may eventually be proven right; but I could be broke by then at the rate things are going :(
 

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If these quotes from the OP article don't get the hair on your neck standing, not sure what will.


The bank’s credit team said markets are flashing stress alerts akin to the turbulent months before the Lehman crisis in 2008. “Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small,” it said in a client note.

Andrew Roberts, the bank’s credit chief, said that global trade and loans are contracting, a nasty cocktail for corporate balance sheets and equity earnings. This is particularly ominous given that global debt ratios have reached record highs.

“China has set off a major correction and it is going to snowball. Equities and credit have become very dangerous, and we have hardly even begun to retrace the 'Goldlocks love-in' of the last two years,” he said.


RBS first issued its grim warnings for the global economy in November but events have moved even faster than feared. It estimates that the US economy slowed to a growth rate of 0.5pc in the fourth quarter, and accuses the US Federal Reserve of “playing with fire” by raising rates into the teeth of the storm. “There has already been severe monetary tightening in the US from the rising dollar,” it said.

It is unusual for the Fed to tighten when the ISM manufacturing index is below the boom-bust line of 50. It is even more surprising to do so after nominal GDP growth has fallen to 3pc and has been trending down since early 2014.
 

Ahillock

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Of note, RBS was || that close to going bankrupt during the collapse of 2008. I'm sure they don't want to have a repeat of that and will try to be the first to the exit when they sense the water level rising in the boat.
 
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Thanks, I needed that. My equity accounts are already way off their 2007 highs. I've probably taken $100,000 in distributions since 2007. But that leaves $300,000 in losses. Peter Schiff has not been right about foreign shares being a safe place to invest in the eight years I've followed his advice. He may eventually be proven right; but I could be broke by then at the rate things are going :(

I like schiff, but never understood why he suggested invest in europe they are worse off than us, no one has any money, it's all a ponzi scheme
 

Cigarlover

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So it looks like cash is king still. Sit on the sidelines and wait. Boring but if preservation of capital is what we are talking about then IMO its the best strategy. If the banks are indeed in a fragile state I would also bring that cash home. This is the reason JS has been saying GOTS. (Get out of the system)

I also dont think 10-20% is all we are looking at. 50% would be my guess at a minimum. This time real estate needs to come back down as well. It was saved last time because of the bank bailouts but they have already said no bailouts this time which should make everything correct. At least back to 2000 levels and possibly back to 2001 levels where this all began.
 

Ahillock

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So it looks like cash is king still. Sit on the sidelines and wait. Boring but if preservation of capital is what we are talking about then IMO its the best strategy. If the banks are indeed in a fragile state I would also bring that cash home. This is the reason JS has been saying GOTS. (Get out of the system)

I also dont think 10-20% is all we are looking at. 50% would be my guess at a minimum. This time real estate needs to come back down as well. It was saved last time because of the bank bailouts but they have already said no bailouts this time which should make everything correct. At least back to 2000 levels and possibly back to 2001 levels where this all began.

+1. GOTS and "if you don't hold it, you don't own it."
 

latemetal

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I love betting in crooked casinos, and betting on Powerball, wish me luck...
 

the_shootist

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RBS is a mess as an organization. Take that from someone who was there and knows them internally
 

GOLD DUCK

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hell, that's my retirement plan
QWAK,Buy physical GOLD as much as you can as fast as you can also buy some SILVER for day to day wants and needs!:thumbs up 2:

The fractional banking and FIAT scams on a global scale are becoming OBVIOUS to even the low IQ people ----- the FRAUD is just too damned obvious!:thumbs down:

It could be days not years till the implosion starts.:shit happens:

the DUCK :winks2:
 

the_shootist

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QWAK,Buy physical GOLD as much as you can as fast as you can also buy some SILVER for day to day wants and needs!:thumbs up 2:

The fractional banking and FIAT scams on a global scale are becoming OBVIOUS to even the low IQ people ----- the FRAUD is just too damned obvious!:thumbs down:

It could be days not years till the implosion starts.:shit happens:

the DUCK :winks2:
Stop trying to cheer me up Duck :)
 

GOLD DUCK

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Stop trying to cheer me up Duck :)

QWAK,the_shootist,Wile I expect my GOLD and SILVER to increase in value 5 to 10 times :thumbs up 2: I don"expect to see HAPPY TIMES once it happens in my lifetime.

Too many things for daily life will just stop and not be there any more.:thumbs down:

Just having GOLD SILVER guns and food will NOT make it a good time to be living. :(

the DUCK :winks2:
 

the_shootist

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QWAK,the_shootist,Wile I expect my GOLD and SILVER to increase in value 5 to 10 times :thumbs up 2: I don"expect to see HAPPY TIMES once it happens in my lifetime.

Too many things for daily life will just stop and not be there any more.:thumbs down:

Just having GOLD SILVER guns and food will NOT make it a good time to be living. :(

the DUCK :winks2:
Sadly, I think you're spot on
 

southfork

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QWAK,Buy physical GOLD as much as you can as fast as you can also buy some SILVER for day to day wants and needs!:thumbs up 2:

The fractional banking and FIAT scams on a global scale are becoming OBVIOUS to even the low IQ people ----- the FRAUD is just too damned obvious!:thumbs down:

It could be days not years till the implosion starts.:shit happens:

the DUCK :winks2:


Could be, or if, how many times have we heard this?
 

GOLD DUCK

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Could be, or if, how many times have we heard this?

QWAK,southfork,I bought my land and cabin in 1980 and started prepping so I could do that in 1973. :thumbs up 2:

I started buying GOLD back in 2000 when it was under $300.00 I could save up and buy LBs back then ---- the good old GOLD days!:thumbs up 2::gold:

the DUCK :winks2:

PS: Better years early than even one day too late!:blew up:
 
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Ahillock

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RBS is a mess as an organization. Take that from someone who was there and knows them internally

Honestly, I think that spreads to all of the big wall street guys and financial institutions. They all screwed and in a big mess.
 

the_shootist

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Honestly, I think that spreads to all of the big wall street guys and financial institutions. They all screwed and in a big mess.
That's pretty much it!!!
 

nickndfl

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Thanks, I needed that. My equity accounts are already way off their 2007 highs. I've probably taken $100,000 in distributions since 2007. But that leaves $300,000 in losses. Peter Schiff has not been right about foreign shares being a safe place to invest in the eight years I've followed his advice. He may eventually be proven right; but I could be broke by then at the rate things are going :(

I saw Jimmy Rogers on television last month. If everybody remembers he was the bow tie wearing inflationary commodity guy who rode a motorcycle across the USA and wrote a book about his life and making money.

I was thinking he looked like a broken man if he took his own advice and went long on materials and China.
 

AurumAg

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Buy physical PMs.

Even if the commodities tank 20%, by that time the ETF fraud will have been exposed for the (between 40 and 100) multiplier of ethereal "metal" to physical.

My wife and I cashed in our 401Ks years ago.

My parents are so worried, because their retirement is still riding the Wall Street Bull.
 

Ahillock

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Buy physical PMs.

Even if the commodities tank 20%, by that time the ETF fraud will have been exposed for the (between 40 and 100) multiplier of ethereal "metal" to physical.

My wife and I cashed in our 401Ks years ago.

My parents are so worried, because their retirement is still riding the Wall Street Bull.

"He who panics first, panics best."
 

the_shootist

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GOLD DUCK

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Buy more PMs

If you like your PMs, you can keep your PMs

QWAK,the_shootist,When I was buying GOLD at under $300.00 and telling people to sell stock and buy GOLD I got called "Chicken Little" a lot :rotf: ---- people see and believe what they WANT to see and believe.:secret:

the DUCK :winks2:
 

the_shootist

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QWAK,the_shootist,When I was buying GOLD at under $300.00 and telling people to sell stock and buy GOLD I got called "Chicken Little" a lot :rotf: ---- people see and believe what they WANT to see and believe.:secret:

the DUCK :winks2:
You're one smart Duck! :2 thumbs up:
 

GOLD DUCK

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You're one smart Duck! :2 thumbs up:


QWAK, the_shootist,A hooker in Nam explained to me that "GOLD is money" and every thing else a substitute for GOLD! :secret:

She was RIGHT and the more I learned about money the more I understood how right she was!:2 thumbs up:

the DUCK :winks2:
 

the_shootist

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QWAK, the_shootist,A hooker in Nam explained to me that "GOLD is money" and every thing else a substitute for GOLD! :secret:

She was RIGHT and the more I learned about money the more I understood how right she was!:2 thumbs up:

the DUCK :winks2:
Thank you for your service Duck. I'm old enough to remember Nam but too young to have served with you.
 
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nickndfl

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Can't go wrong with physical gold and silver as long as you don't buy at the peak and don't get robbed or lose it in a fire.
 

GOLD DUCK

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Can't go wrong with physical gold and silver as long as you don't buy at the peak and don't get robbed or lose it in a fire.

QWAK,nickndfl,The GOLD was here for billions of years before people walked the earth --- one can expect it will still be here billions of years after after the last person is gone ---- you can trust in GOLD:thumbs up 2: --- no FIAT ever lasted 50 years --- bankers invented FIAT as a way to get something for nothing!:thumbs down:

the DUCK :winks2:
 

VTEEZER

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I saw Jimmy Rogers on television last month. If everybody remembers he was the bow tie wearing inflationary commodity guy who rode a motorcycle across the USA and wrote a book about his life and making money.

I was thinking he looked like a broken man if he took his own advice and went long on materials and China.

Now that you mention it, I haven't seen much or heard much of JR lately. Maybe he jumped off one of those empty Chinese high risers!?