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Silver next upswing

d-lod

dawn
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http://www.kitco.com/ind/Lewis/20120510.html


How Supply and Demand Theoretically Determine Prices

According to the theoretical supply and demand model of price determination, the price per unit of a commodity will fluctuate until it stabilizes at the level where the amount demanded at that price is equal to the amount supplied at that price. The result is an equilibrium state in terms of price and quantity.

The traditional relationship between supply and demand is often depicted by a graph plotting quantity on the x-axis against price on the y-axis for both the inclining supply curve and the declining demand curve.

These curves generally slope in opposite directions since rising prices tend to both decrease demand and increase supply, while falling prices tend to increase demand and decrease supply of a commodity.

The point of intersection between these curves represents the equilibrium price and quantity for the commodity, which should ideally be the same as the market price.

Covert Silver Market Manipulation Could Eventually Create a Crunch

If the silver market is indeed being secretly manipulated by the use of paper futures contracts to keep physical metal prices artificially low, as some people believe, then the market may well be a coiled spring just waiting to snap and propel silver prices upward.

They argue that if this manipulation ceases, the result could be a substantial market crunch when the forces of supply and demand for silver are ultimately allowed to find their equilibrium point at a considerably higher price level.

For example, if metal futures exchange rules were changed so that all silver futures contracts were required to be settled in physical metal, rather than just having physical delivery be at the option of the future contract’s seller, then any manipulation of the silver market by those excessively rich in printable paper currency would very likely have to stop.

The price of silver would then probably rise to meet its proper equilibrium level, unless more manipulative steps were taken to prevent this from occurring.
 

REO 54

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"For example, if metal futures exchange rules were changed so that all silver futures contracts were required to be settled in physical metal, rather than just having physical delivery be at the option of the future contract’s seller, then any manipulation of the silver market by those excessively rich in printable paper currency would very likely have to stop."There it is.Think they will change the rules anytime soon? :vollkommenauf:
 
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"For example, if metal futures exchange rules were changed so that all silver futures contracts were required to be settled in physical metal, rather than just having physical delivery be at the option of the future contract’s seller, then any manipulation of the silver market by those excessively rich in printable paper currency would very likely have to stop."There it is.Think they will change the rules anytime soon? :vollkommenauf:
That would WIPE OUT the ability to hedge, a major function of the futures market.
 

REO 54

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That would WIPE OUT the ability to hedge, a major function of the futures market.
So is the ability to hedge an important nessasary fuction ,or is one of the new contrived financial schemes of the 21st century?

Still learnin'.......whats it all about....
 

d-lod

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So is the ability to hedge an important nessasary fuction ,or is one of the new contrived financial schemes of the 21st century?

Still learnin'.......whats it all about....
REO 54


I have a handwritten book on future market, its from the days when printing book was not common and 400 hundred pages of hand written book, but believe me even then there was hedging, but it was based on calculated future demand for present supply.

This one is based on free available supply of currency that each player has, so this is different and is in direct proportion to printed cash and acquiring it by unlawful borrowing.
 

REO 54

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Hey d-lod,look at your post time,then look at mine......you posted ahead of me,yet your time is 5 min into our future.Must be because where you
are located...:hmmmm2:
 

d-lod

dawn
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Hey d-lod,look at your post time,then look at mine......you posted ahead of me,yet your time is 5 min into our future.Must be because where you
are located...:hmmmm2:
Right now REO, I am enjoying Canadian spring in Toronto, last two days, I was in Detroit and was glad to see Reality Market picking up.
 

d-lod

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Fibo level of the correction from $4 to $49 could consolidate to 21.46, If this wave is actually corrective larger wave TWO, If this is 1st wave of large wave THREE, than the correction could go upto 26.90 and further to 23.91.
 

d-lod

dawn
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How to buy silver......................



http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article34669.html


Choosing a Silver Dealer
However you choose to buy physical silver, gold or other precious metals, the most important rule is to deal only with reputable dealers who have proven experience in the business and clearly stated policies and warranties - especially if you're purchasing by phone or online.

Several long-standing firms in the United States with solid reputations include:

•American Precious Metals Exchange (apmex.com) - This Oklahoma City-based firm offers both bullion and collectible metals products, as well as storage facilities. Quotes are updated every 15 minutes during trading hours. Purchase online or call 1-800-375-9006.
•Asset Strategies International (ASI) (assetstrategies.com) - This Rockville, MD firm has a large inventory of silver bullion products, and also offers regular metals markets commentary and analysis on its website. Sales representatives are available at 1-800-831-0007.
•Gainesville Coins (gainesvillecoins.com) - Based in Lutz, FL, they provide an extensive selection of silver coins and bars that can be reviewed online or purchased via phone at 1-813-482-9300.
•Kitco (kitco.com) - One of the world's largest metals dealers with offices in New York, Montreal, Hong Kong and elsewhere, Kitco provides a wide range of products and services, including real-time quotes and news updates. Purchases can be made online or by calling 1-877-775-4826.
•SilverTowne (silvertowne.com) - Founded in 1949, this Indiana-based firm specializes in all types of investment silver, from collectible coins to silver bars in varied weights. Phone: 1-877-477-2646.
•The Tulving Co. (tulving.com) - Based in Newport Beach, CA, Tulving provides 24-hour sales and service, tracking trading and price quotes in markets around the globe. U.S. and Canadian investors can call 1-800-995-1708.

Physical silver provides a long-term store of value, but it does carry some added risks - one of them being the potential for confiscation.

That possibility, similar to what happened with gold in 1933, is quite real. As such, if you're seriously considering silver as a hedge against future U.S. problems, you might consider choosing Canada or elsewhere offshore as a storage site for your metal.

Also, while it's easy to both buy and sell bars and coins with any of the above dealers, they're still a bit cumbersome for trading purposes, what with price mark-ups, storage, shipping and insurance costs.
 

d-lod

dawn
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This silver correction is not simple correction of past, On montly chart this is the third time silver is visiting 26. It means either silver is on the way to make lower low, way below 26, or silver is leaving twenties for ever, by giving triple bottom.

If A = C than silver will not go lower than 26, but if C = A x 1.6, than the figure that comes to mind is sweet sixteen. But all of us know that may not be possible.
 
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Au-myn

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This silver correction is not simple correction of past, On montly chart this is the third time silver is visiting 26. It means either silver is on the way to make lower low, way below 26, or silver is leaving twenties for always, by giving triple bottom.

If A - C than silver will not go lower than 26, but if C = A x 1.6, than the figure that comes to mind is sweet sixteen. But all of us know that may not be possible.
d-lod, I agree that there currently three bottoms at the 26 level.

I have a 2 x 3 LT P & F chart on Silver. The chart is still in a bullish market. A down move to 26 would issue a sell signal on a Bull Trap formation as noted by the single square up move to 36. This takes out short sellers stoplosses as well as the traders with buy-stop orders. It should also be noted that if a sell signal were to occur it is still above the LT bullish support line. Until a sell signal occurs under its bullish support line, the chart is still bullish.



Conversely, a reversal upward to 38 would issue a Triple Top formation buy signal penetrating the first top at 34, the second at 36 and the final top at at 38 being the buy signal. The ST bearish resistance line would also be taken out.
 

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d-lod

dawn
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d-lod, I agree that there currently three bottoms at the 26 level.

I have a 2 x 3 LT P & F chart on Silver. The chart is still in a bullish market. A down move to 26 would issue a sell signal on a Bull Trap formation as noted by the single square up move to 36. This takes out short sellers stoplosses as well as the traders with buy-stop orders. It should also be noted that if a sell signal were to occur it is still above the LT bullish support line. Until a sell signal occurs under its bullish support line, the chart is still bullish.



Conversely, a reversal upward to 38 would issue a Triple Top formation buy signal penetrating the first top at 34, the second at 36 and the final top at at 38 being the buy signal. The ST bearish resistance line would also be taken out.
Thanks Au-myn

It was a pleasant surprise to see your post, I just wish that varied technique be discussed on this thread more often.
I was wondering on my earlier comment that, if it is really triple bottom than this is the last opportunity to load REO 54 your truck.


http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:triple_bottom_revers

The only set back is this could be bottom of mid bull trend and not at the bottom of bear market.

And if that is so than be ready for upswing, folks we are still not certain how the pattern will play out!
 

d-lod

dawn
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The silver chart is giving rise to "flag" - a continuous pattern suggest, that silver may reach price of $67 in its first jump. The weekly chart has MACD that is giving positive divergence, if you remember, earlier it was on daily chart which was consider weak.
 

d-lod

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Thanks Au-myn

It was a pleasant surprise to see your post, I just wish that varied technique be discussed on this thread more often.
I was wondering on my earlier comment that, if it is really triple bottom than this is the last opportunity to load REO 54 your truck.


http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:triple_bottom_revers

The only set back is this could be bottom of mid bull trend and not at the bottom of bear market.

And if that is so than be ready for upswing, folks we are still not certain how the pattern will play out!


On this thread we have already about triple bottom in gold and silver, but today another technician has also written about triple bottom.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/weytjens051912.html


Gold has now made a bullish reversal on a weekly basis, as price rallied sharply on Thursday and Friday. Support held, which means Gold could be on the verge of setting a double/triple bottom around $1,550:

On a monthly basis, we can see that the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating that volatility has been low over the past couple of months (although it might not have felt like that for some traders). Volatility will not stay this low forever, so Gold is now getting ready for the next BIG MOVE. Notice that I am talking about a MONTHLY chart here, I am not talking about the day-to-day volatility (which has been quite extreme from time to time). This also means that it might take several more months before the next BIG move actually starts. However, keep an eye on the monthly Bollinger Bands, and follow the trend when the next Big Move starts.



On Silver:

Shorter term, we can see that the Commercials have reduced their Net Short positions in Silver to 15,980 contracts, a level not seen since late 2011, a time when Silver set a bottom at roughly the same price level as where it is trading today:
 

d-lod

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http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/maund052212.html


While gold's latest COT chart certainly looks bullish, silver's is much more strongly so, with the Commercial short positions having dropped to a very low level - about the same level as that which preceded the big rally in silver in January and February. Just by itself this strongly implies that silver has just hit an important low and that a new uptrend is dead ahead.

The 2-year silver to gold ratio chart is very interesting. While silver bugs were walking tall back in April 2011, with many being egged on by former vacuum cleaner salesmen etc, they are now almost ashamed to admit to owning the metal. This is certainly a good sign and this ratio chart shows that we are definitely at a good point for silver to start outperforming gold, as it is on strong relative support which has produced a turnaround twice over the past year, and if it starts outperforming gold it means that a PM sector uptrend will be under way.
This is what I have been suggesting on this thread since last few months that silver is in stronger position to recover versus gold. The only fear is that it is a nutty metal and like to visit south to the extreme.

 

d-lod

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Market has many player and there decisions affect market but eventually fundamental rules the market. In last one year silver has visited 26 thrice, it could be bullish triple bottom formation or this support is going to be next resistance. If bullion has store values of every country's fast depreciating FRN than this is triple bottom,and if it is reacting as industrial metal than 26 will be next resistance. All of you have answer, where it will go, just ask your gut.
 

lightcycler

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Market has many player and there decisions affect market but eventually fundamental rules the market. In last one year silver has visited 26 thrice, it could be bullish triple bottom formation or this support is going to be next resistance. If bullion has store values of every country's fast depreciating FRN than this is triple bottom,and if it is reacting as industrial metal than 26 will be next resistance. All of you have answer, where it will go, just ask your gut.


Thoughts on recent action Dlod?
 

d-lod

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A Descending Continuation Triangle features two converging trendlines. The bottom trendline is horizontal and the top trendline slopes downward. The pattern illustrates lows occurring at a constant price level, with highs moving constantly lower. The pattern displays two highs touching the upper trendline and two lows touching the lower trendline.

This pattern is confirmed when the price breaks out of the triangle formation to close below the lower trendline.

Criteria that Supports

Look for a region of support at the bottom trendline and a line of resistance at the highest high of the Triangle.

Moving Average

Compare prices to the 200 day Moving Average. When prices are close to or touch the 200 day Moving Average this signal is considered stronger.

Signs Of False Breakout

1) A real breakout should have a huge volume surge coming directly out of the pattern, in this case an Ascending Triangle pattern. Notice the obvious absence of a huge volume surge.

2) The volume should continue to rise for 2 or more days after the breakout before the first retracement. Notice that the volume rose a single day and then immediately began to fall. This spelled doom for the breakout.

3) The candlesticks should have shaven tops. Notice the long shadows on 5 candlesticks. These shadows were caused by institutions and individual traders fading the breakout. Each day, the bears gained more and more confidence that the bulls could not hold the breakout.
 

d-lod

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http://www.silverseek.com/article/silver-price-projection-%E2%80%93-2013-5921



An objective and reasonable estimate for the price of silver at the next intermediate peak (estimating 2013 – Quarter 2) is $50 to $60 per ounce (current price is about $28). This is not a prediction based on wishful thinking and hope, but a best estimate based on rational analysis of data stretching back to 1975. The actual price for silver at its next peak could be higher or lower, and the peak might be earlier or later, but this price range and approximate time is, by this analysis, the most probable.

Until the last century, silver and gold had been money for thousands of years. During the long history of gold and silver, the price ratio of gold to silver has averaged, depending on analysis, around 15 to 20. Since 1975, it has been as low as 17 and as high as about 102. The ratio is low when silver is expensive compared to gold – which occurs at peaks in the price of silver, such as in early 1980. Silver is a smaller market and much more volatile in price than gold, so the ratio can stretch one way or the other depending on the degree of speculative fervor in the market or the degree of price depression and disinterest in precious metals, such as in 1991. Extremes in the ratio usually occur at highs and lows in the prices of both metals.


How is this useful? Instead of working with the gold to silver ratio, invert it and use the silver to gold ratio. That ratio peaks with price peaks in silver and bottoms with price bottoms in silver. However, there is no simple answer as to what ratio is “high” or “low” since the ratio might be very different between the decade of the 1970s and the 1990s. There is, however, a technical indicator called the Relative Strength Index that is normalized between 0 and 100. The RSI can be used with any time scale, such as 5 minute price data, or 50 month data. The result is the same, a number between 0 and 100, with low numbers (such as 14) indicating a severely “oversold” condition and high numbers (such as 80) indicating a severely “overbought” condition.
 

d-lod

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Assuming correction was over at 26.05, the first reaction to $26/- level, than the first wave originated from 26.05 to 35.65. This impulsive wave had irregular correction so far which concluded at 26.12 (the third famous correction/alias triple bottom).

Based on above wave size following interpretation could be drawn.

wave i = 26.05 - 35.65 = 9.60
wave ii =
------a = 35.65 - 26.14 = 09.51
------b = 26.14 - 37.50 = 11.36
------c = 37.50 - 26.12 = 11.38
wave iii = 26.12 - 41.48/50.08

In nutshell the triple bottom was due to irregular correction and next upward impulsive wave may reach 41.48 or 50.08.
 

KnowNothing

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Are we at take-off already?