Manipulators connected with the Federal Reserve can handle unlimited paper losses. The real issue, IMO is when there will be divergence between physical and paper silver. When that happens, they will have to adjust the paper silver price upward or lose all credibility.
We need to focus on what wedges we can drive to separate physical and paper silver to cause this divergence.
Hoarder
It was 75%correction of first wave from $4 - $21 plus, to $8 and 2 1/2 year to reach to 49, if we want them to go barsake than correction from $8 - $ 49 should visit to 18.40 and the time period is November 2013.
As an aside, I have been bemused by how "easily" some commentators have been able talk about a single element of the financial market - the Fed - having the implicit ability to "control" the US economy. Clearly (to me at least) if the Fed embarks on QE to Infinity, the implicit assumption of these commentators is that "The Market" will just watch breathlessly whilst sitting on its hands. Clearly (to me at least) The Market will not just sit and watch. As the risks of inflation rise, so the risks of borrower defaults in the Private Sector Capital Markets will also rise, and Private Sector interest rates will inevitably rise to offset those risks. With its $40 billion (or so) mortgage purchases per month, The Fed may or may not eventually "control" 100% of the mortgage market through Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac. But even if 100% of all domestic mortgages are 30 year loans at low fixed rates, what about Credit Card rates, Hire Purchase Finance rates, Overdraft Rates, Consumer loan rates, Other?
In my view, 2013 will be a watershed year because 2013 will be the year when reality finally bites. This doesn't necessarily imply economic collapse. Indeed recognition of "reality" may be a good thing. When people stop kidding themselves and lying to each other, then consensus on significant economy management action is likely to become politically achievable, and the following seems at least possible, if not likely:
Eligibility for US government funded pensions will become subject to asset/income testing.
Retirement age will be pushed out by between 2 and 5 years.
The US will give up on its objective of being "The World's Policeman". The last time I looked, US Defence Spending was greater than the Defence Spending of the rest of the world combined.
Medical over-servicing will be significantly curtailed as health care budgets are cut; which will lead to "personalised medicine" becoming a subject of intense focus.
Because of rising risks in the Private Sector Capital Markets, rental of domestic property will become a more viable proposition from the perspective of property owners - which implies a fall in Real Estate capital values and a rise in rental returns. In turn, this will render it obvious to even an intellectual hunchback that Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac are hopelessly insolvent by any commercially acceptable yardstick. (Explanation: The idea of the Fed funding Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac purely by printing money is nothing short of a cockamamie, hair-brain scheme when it is seen in context of the Capital Markets as a whole. The Fed cannot possibly aspire to control the entire world's capital markets. Such an aspiration is pure lunacy. For one thing, the US Dollar does not exist in a vacuum.)
"Rorting the system" will become ever more difficult as reality bites. For example, Government incentives for building emerging, innovative businesses will be linked to employment opportunities created and will be forfeited/refundable if those opportunities are not created.
Voters will eventually come to understand that salaries of executives of large organisations should not automatically be higher than salaries of executives of high growth businesses because it requires far less "talent" to manage a large organisation with an already existing momentum in the market place. Some form of controls will need to be introduced whereby the CEO of any corporation cannot earn more than a Board nominated (of course, generous) multiple of that corporations' average executive earnings, benchmarked against similar standards for similar organisations at similar points in their life-cycles. It will follow that if a CEO wants to earn super income then he will have to accept part of his salary in shares (taxable as income) and work to raise the value of those shares against a (say) rolling 10 year median benchmark P/E ratio of the market as a whole. It does not take a rocket scientist to raise prices (and profit margins) in an oligopolistic competitive environment. Such behaviour is socially counterproductive and should be punished - not rewarded. This is not a "socialist" view - it is quite consistent with the concept that adding value should be appropriately rewarded. Arguably, raising prices (and margins) does not add value to anyone other than the price gouger. Arguably, such behaviour serves to undermine economic momentum.
Silver rose a paltry 0.43% this past week and is setting up a bear flag also which has the $28 area squarely in its sights.
Silver is all but guaranteed to hit the $28 area in the very near future and that is all there is to it.
That’s what the chart tells me and I don’t really care too much about the reasons why. Simply put, buyers and sellers are saying silver is heading lower. Who those buyers and sellers are is a different story but one I can’t control so I just read their moves and try and take advantage of them.
Silver looks nice here and it’s also building a great base that could eventually form a type of cup and handle pattern which is very powerful and that is marked in red on my chart.
You can clearly see the trend is higher on this long-term chart and we’re just in a base/power building phase at the moment.
The next move could take silver to the $120 area.
As the great Kenny Rogers said; “You’ve got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em”
Now is the time to “hold em”!
Long time no post. Gold and Silver really need to find support pretty soon and pretty close to these lows or we are in for some real fun on the downside. The correction in Silver is 20 months old now a fairly long time for a bull market. If I ran the zoo and wanted to scare the living crap out of the newcomers I would drop Gold to 1300 and Silver to 20. Let's see if they can do it.
Corrective wave with abc correction
wave a
i----37.41 -33.99 = 3.42
ii---33.99 -35.61 = 1.62
iii--35.61 - 32.46 = 3.15
iv--32.46 - 34.14 = 1.68
v--34.14 - 32.19 = 1.95( 3.15 x .62)
---------- 30.99 = 3.15(3.15 x 1)
-----------28.90 = 5.24(3.15 x 1.6) this may not be applicable as third wave cannot be smallest.
I bought 2 MS-69 ATB coins yesterday so PMs are going done now :yes:
I am still waiting for my monster box to get cheaper :biggrin:
Will take kahunas of steel to sit tight. It has been a long wait for this leg to come. I've had dry powder for a month. Come on..... baby needs new shoes :)
My head hurts...........
Here are three more guesses from people I talk to:
1. will hang in 30-35 range for at least 3 more months
2. will go to 26-30 range and stay there for at least 3 more months
3. will go up in December towards 50. will see it in upper 40s within a month
I know, I know ... we are missing a guess of silver going below 26. Otherwise, we are covered :biggrin:
Wasn't spot going to be "north of $60" by Christmas?....still time...
d-lod, one of the best things I can say about your use of EW is that there is no emotion involved concerning the analyst. Sure, emotions are involved by the masses (your circular chart of the seasonal habits clearly shows this), but as an analyst, you simply look at history repeating itself in its predictable and irresistible ebb and flow.
As the tide rises, it will surely fall, and rise and fall again.
I think this thread is so quiet due to the fact nobody knows which way silver heads next. Expect silver to bounce around due to massive floods of paper silver. Once Iran makes the front page of newspapers, light the rockets!
Is it obvious by now? 2 chances at $26 you will not get another. Notice the positive divergences on the second move down in late December.
Maybe just editing the title and keeping the thread.I dunno. I'm a fan of the thread for sure. What say Klichko,lightcycler and others??
For me the only way this could hurt me is if I decided to sell.....I'm not-- so CARRY ON!!!:cool05:
lhslancers3270
The silver is herself if she visits early twenty, and my deepest fear would come true. Lets just see.
Even three 26 didn't fetch them enough silver, we are not going to leave station, till the big player bully us out of our silver??///////////////
Is that their game? they are going to pay for this.
There is not enough physical silver for them to cover 25% of their shorts, 3 digits coming soon at a crimex near you.
What percentage of the longs in those trades actually want delivery? That my friend IS the important question! "Naked" longs are out there too!! They are the ones making short term bets on a rising price.
SF, I'd be happy and clean up with $100 silver. I'm not going to hold my breath.
You will be very happy , hold tight.
What percentage of the longs in those trades actually want delivery? That my friend IS the important question! "Naked" longs are out there too!! They are the ones making short term bets on a rising price.
That Folks, is why I don't buy that Easter Bunny COMEX is gunna default crap. JMHO, take it or leave it.
'cubed
That Folks, is why I don't buy that Easter Bunny COMEX is gunna default crap. JMHO, take it or leave it.
'cubed
You are right Gcubed, very few would stand for delivery, this game would have been over in 2008, when they drove price to $8. The very number 8 was reached because of nakedness in delivery demand, and that is why silver is volatile, if we had loyal investors as in gold, silver would have been 120$
I can't go for the $120. Just too much of the stuff and more coming on line. I don't care what Teddy B says.![]()
Where is the price of silver going near term?What's your opinion, IMO we have a good chance of silver testing the $26 area support. I will add to the stack at the point.
Thanks for keeping up with the thread, D-lod! I haven't had time to log on recently, so its nice to read back through the thread and see what all I missed.
I must say, I'm a bit worried here. Either this is the bottom of this little correction, or we go much lower, IMO. If we go lower, we would delay the next major upleg another year or 2.
Personally, I think we begin moving up soon. However, I'm not so sure.
The major upleg will not be in next two years, it would be before August.
Rest assured you will double your earlier investment within this year.
History rhymes and PM peaks every two and half year.
"...what I would do to you, if that is true!"
Use a condom. :s9: