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Silver next upswing

d-lod

dawn
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Silver in its minor wave correction, the wave lifted silver from its third bottom at 26.12 to 35.38. A rise of $9.26.
This rise is being corrected at present level, as everyone knows that correction takes place in abc pattern, so following analysis can give us probable level for wave c.


a=4.72------------(35.38-30.66)
b=3.74------------(30.66-34.40)
c=?

It could be 3.11/4.72/7.83............as per fibo levels. It could be any of this number and result would be

c=$31.28
c=$29.68
c=$26.52


We have three golden number for silver to finish before it start its journey to next upleg of $15.37 or $24.07


http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article38067.html

Weak Hands Make for Easy Profits

The participation of individuals with weak hands in a market like silver’s are sometimes seen by the larger and more unscrupulous traders as providing the opportunity to make quick and easy profits.

This is especially effective if the weak handed traders’ stop loss levels can be reasonably deduced by having an understanding of how trading systems tend to operate based on technical analysis, for example.

Their large trading size and deeper pockets often allows the big market makers and players to temporarily push the market through key support or resistance levels in order to trigger the stop loss orders placed by smaller traders who cannot afford to run losing positions very long.

Some of these large traders are even working stop loss orders for weak handed clients, so they know exactly what level or levels need to trade in order for their contrary positions to earn extra profits when the stops are triggered. The conflict of interest in such situations seems considerable.
 

d-lod

dawn
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Silver in its minor wave correction, the wave lifted silver from its third bottom at 26.12 to 35.38. A rise of $9.26.
This rise is being corrected at present level, as everyone knows that correction takes place in abc pattern, so following analysis can give us probable level for wave c.


a=4.72------------(35.38-30.66)
b=3.74------------(30.66-34.40)
c=?

It could be 3.11/4.72/7.83............as per fibo levels. It could be any of this number and result would be

c=$31.28
c=$29.68
c=$26.52


We have three golden number for silver to finish before it start its journey to next upleg of $15.37 or $24.07

Silver has been behaving as if in no mood to come out of 15 months slumber, yes folks, the 2008-09 correction took 8 month while this time it is taking nearly 15, so does this suggest that Alf is wrong once again?

The time factor is suggesting that we are into corrective larger WAVE II than in third.
 
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d-lod

dawn
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Silver in its minor wave correction, the wave lifted silver from its third bottom at 26.12 to 35.38. A rise of $9.26.
This rise is being corrected at present level, as everyone knows that correction takes place in abc pattern, so following analysis can give us probable level for wave c.


a=4.72------------(35.38-30.66)
b=3.74------------(30.66-34.40)
c=?

It could be 3.11/4.72/7.83............as per fibo levels. It could be any of this number and result would be

c=$31.28
c=$29.68
c=$26.52


We have three golden number for silver to finish before it start its journey to next upleg of $15.37 or $24.07



few cents to first level of support...................
 

d-lod

dawn
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Healthy correction till 29.68, after that it becomes a bit weak till 26.52 and after that, it would be in hand of manipulators, till how much loss they can take.



A lesson learned forever, the financial institutes will sell whatever they are making profit in during yearly closings.
 

hoarder

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Manipulators connected with the Federal Reserve can handle unlimited paper losses. The real issue, IMO is when there will be divergence between physical and paper silver. When that happens, they will have to adjust the paper silver price upward or lose all credibility.

We need to focus on what wedges we can drive to separate physical and paper silver to cause this divergence.
 

d-lod

dawn
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Manipulators connected with the Federal Reserve can handle unlimited paper losses. The real issue, IMO is when there will be divergence between physical and paper silver. When that happens, they will have to adjust the paper silver price upward or lose all credibility.

We need to focus on what wedges we can drive to separate physical and paper silver to cause this divergence.
Hoarder

It was 75%correction of first wave from $4 - $21 plus, to $8 and 2 1/2 year to reach to 49, if we want them to go barsake than correction from $8 - $ 49 should visit to 18.40 and the time period is November 2013.
 

d-lod

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Hoarder

It was 75%correction of first wave from $4 - $21 plus, to $8 and 2 1/2 year to reach to 49, if we want them to go barsake than correction from $8 - $ 49 should visit to 18.40 and the time period is November 2013.
It was April 2008, when silver made low of $15.99 and than rose to $19.48 in July. In next month it crossed low of 15.99 and traveled to $8, by November, breaking the triangle.

This time it may be different because 26$ has been visited thrice, and time taken in consolidation is twice. But still be cautious, cause there are likes of this bloom who are alerting us.


http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/bloom121912.html


As an aside, I have been bemused by how "easily" some commentators have been able talk about a single element of the financial market - the Fed - having the implicit ability to "control" the US economy. Clearly (to me at least) if the Fed embarks on QE to Infinity, the implicit assumption of these commentators is that "The Market" will just watch breathlessly whilst sitting on its hands. Clearly (to me at least) The Market will not just sit and watch. As the risks of inflation rise, so the risks of borrower defaults in the Private Sector Capital Markets will also rise, and Private Sector interest rates will inevitably rise to offset those risks. With its $40 billion (or so) mortgage purchases per month, The Fed may or may not eventually "control" 100% of the mortgage market through Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac. But even if 100% of all domestic mortgages are 30 year loans at low fixed rates, what about Credit Card rates, Hire Purchase Finance rates, Overdraft Rates, Consumer loan rates, Other?

In my view, 2013 will be a watershed year because 2013 will be the year when reality finally bites. This doesn't necessarily imply economic collapse. Indeed recognition of "reality" may be a good thing. When people stop kidding themselves and lying to each other, then consensus on significant economy management action is likely to become politically achievable, and the following seems at least possible, if not likely:

Eligibility for US government funded pensions will become subject to asset/income testing.


Retirement age will be pushed out by between 2 and 5 years.


The US will give up on its objective of being "The World's Policeman". The last time I looked, US Defence Spending was greater than the Defence Spending of the rest of the world combined.


Medical over-servicing will be significantly curtailed as health care budgets are cut; which will lead to "personalised medicine" becoming a subject of intense focus.


Because of rising risks in the Private Sector Capital Markets, rental of domestic property will become a more viable proposition from the perspective of property owners - which implies a fall in Real Estate capital values and a rise in rental returns. In turn, this will render it obvious to even an intellectual hunchback that Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac are hopelessly insolvent by any commercially acceptable yardstick. (Explanation: The idea of the Fed funding Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac purely by printing money is nothing short of a cockamamie, hair-brain scheme when it is seen in context of the Capital Markets as a whole. The Fed cannot possibly aspire to control the entire world's capital markets. Such an aspiration is pure lunacy. For one thing, the US Dollar does not exist in a vacuum.)


"Rorting the system" will become ever more difficult as reality bites. For example, Government incentives for building emerging, innovative businesses will be linked to employment opportunities created and will be forfeited/refundable if those opportunities are not created.


Voters will eventually come to understand that salaries of executives of large organisations should not automatically be higher than salaries of executives of high growth businesses because it requires far less "talent" to manage a large organisation with an already existing momentum in the market place. Some form of controls will need to be introduced whereby the CEO of any corporation cannot earn more than a Board nominated (of course, generous) multiple of that corporations' average executive earnings, benchmarked against similar standards for similar organisations at similar points in their life-cycles. It will follow that if a CEO wants to earn super income then he will have to accept part of his salary in shares (taxable as income) and work to raise the value of those shares against a (say) rolling 10 year median benchmark P/E ratio of the market as a whole. It does not take a rocket scientist to raise prices (and profit margins) in an oligopolistic competitive environment. Such behaviour is socially counterproductive and should be punished - not rewarded. This is not a "socialist" view - it is quite consistent with the concept that adding value should be appropriately rewarded. Arguably, raising prices (and margins) does not add value to anyone other than the price gouger. Arguably, such behaviour serves to undermine economic momentum.
 

d-lod

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http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1356851040.php




Silver rose a paltry 0.43% this past week and is setting up a bear flag also which has the $28 area squarely in its sights.

Silver is all but guaranteed to hit the $28 area in the very near future and that is all there is to it.

That’s what the chart tells me and I don’t really care too much about the reasons why. Simply put, buyers and sellers are saying silver is heading lower. Who those buyers and sellers are is a different story but one I can’t control so I just read their moves and try and take advantage of them.



Silver looks nice here and it’s also building a great base that could eventually form a type of cup and handle pattern which is very powerful and that is marked in red on my chart.

You can clearly see the trend is higher on this long-term chart and we’re just in a base/power building phase at the moment.

The next move could take silver to the $120 area.

As the great Kenny Rogers said; “You’ve got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em”

Now is the time to “hold em”!
 

engineear

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I glanced through this again and I keep coming up with the answer...your guess is as good as mine. Charts and graphs sound just like "franks and beans, franks and beans" to me. From the Mary movie...funny.
 

d-lod

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lhslancers3270


Long time no post. Gold and Silver really need to find support pretty soon and pretty close to these lows or we are in for some real fun on the downside. The correction in Silver is 20 months old now a fairly long time for a bull market. If I ran the zoo and wanted to scare the living crap out of the newcomers I would drop Gold to 1300 and Silver to 20. Let's see if they can do it.

The silver is herself if she visits early twenty, and my deepest fear would come true. Lets just see.
 

d-lod

dawn
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Corrective wave with abc correction

wave a
i----37.41 -33.99 = 3.42
ii---33.99 -35.61 = 1.62
iii--35.61 - 32.46 = 3.15
iv--32.46 - 34.14 = 1.68
v--34.14 - 32.19 = 1.95( 3.15 x .62)
---------- 30.99 = 3.15(3.15 x 1)
-----------28.90 = 5.24(3.15 x 1.6) this may not be applicable as third wave cannot be smallest.
some of the jwells from past
 

d-lod

dawn
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Will take kahunas of steel to sit tight. It has been a long wait for this leg to come. I've had dry powder for a month. Come on..... baby needs new shoes :)
patience but how much of it? This has been longest correction so far time wise.....................

longer the correction sharper the upleg................
 

d-lod

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Here are three more guesses from people I talk to:

1. will hang in 30-35 range for at least 3 more months
2. will go to 26-30 range and stay there for at least 3 more months
3. will go up in December towards 50. will see it in upper 40s within a month

I know, I know ... we are missing a guess of silver going below 26. Otherwise, we are covered :biggrin:
Remote chances are in vicinity?
 

d-lod

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d-lod, one of the best things I can say about your use of EW is that there is no emotion involved concerning the analyst. Sure, emotions are involved by the masses (your circular chart of the seasonal habits clearly shows this), but as an analyst, you simply look at history repeating itself in its predictable and irresistible ebb and flow.

As the tide rises, it will surely fall, and rise and fall again.
Its really very wet-y now, surfing all those waves !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 

d-lod

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I think this thread is so quiet due to the fact nobody knows which way silver heads next. Expect silver to bounce around due to massive floods of paper silver. Once Iran makes the front page of newspapers, light the rockets!
Truthful and wisest of all, we really do not know what big player wants? our physical or their short covering? The only thing that they are getting is few nickles here or there,,,,,,,,,,,cause we are sitting tight with our physical-----------
 

d-lod

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Is it obvious by now? 2 chances at $26 you will not get another. Notice the positive divergences on the second move down in late December.
Even three 26 didn't fetch them enough silver, we are not going to leave station, till the big player bully us out of our silver??///////////////

Is that their game? they are going to pay for this.
 

GOLD DUCK

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QWAK,For SILVER to actualy CORRECT it should and WILL be well over $100.00 an ounce!:idea::thumbs_up:

The fact that SILVER is SOooooooooooooooooooo CHEEP is WRONG :thumbs_down::realmad: it is ARTIFICIAL and the RESULT of BANKING and GOVERNMENT CORUPTION:realmad::thumbs_down: exploiting the IGNORENCE which they intentionaly promote for personal profits of INSIDERS like AL GORE!:thumbs_down::realmad::cry_smile:

Just keep STACKING -- concider it a GIFT :cheerful::551: or your personal INSURANCE of a FUTURE that avoids POVERTY!:idea::thumbs_up::23_28_100s:

TPTB are SOoooooooooooooo short of REAL SILVER -- they can walk under a THUMB TACK and use it as an UMBRELLA and not bump there heads! :)

the DUCK :s9:
 
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Hi Ho Silver

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For me the only way this could hurt me is if I decided to sell.....I'm not-- so CARRY ON!!!:cool05:
 

southfork

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Even three 26 didn't fetch them enough silver, we are not going to leave station, till the big player bully us out of our silver??///////////////

Is that their game? they are going to pay for this.
There is not enough physical silver for them to cover 25% of their shorts, 3 digits coming soon at a crimex near you.
 
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There is not enough physical silver for them to cover 25% of their shorts, 3 digits coming soon at a crimex near you.
What percentage of the longs in those trades actually want delivery? That my friend IS the important question! "Naked" longs are out there too!! They are the ones making short term bets on a rising price.

SF, I'd be happy and clean up with $100 silver. I'm not going to hold my breath.
 

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What percentage of the longs in those trades actually want delivery? That my friend IS the important question! "Naked" longs are out there too!! They are the ones making short term bets on a rising price.

SF, I'd be happy and clean up with $100 silver. I'm not going to hold my breath.
You will be very happy , hold tight.
 
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What percentage of the longs in those trades actually want delivery? That my friend IS the important question! "Naked" longs are out there too!! They are the ones making short term bets on a rising price.
That Folks, is why I don't buy that Easter Bunny COMEX is gunna default crap. JMHO, take it or leave it.

'cubed
 

d-lod

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That Folks, is why I don't buy that Easter Bunny COMEX is gunna default crap. JMHO, take it or leave it.

'cubed

You are right Gcubed, very few would stand for delivery, this game would have been over in 2008, when they drove price to $8. The very number 8 was reached because of nakedness in delivery demand, and that is why silver is volatile, if we had loyal investors as in gold, silver would have been 120$
 

savvydon

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That Folks, is why I don't buy that Easter Bunny COMEX is gunna default crap. JMHO, take it or leave it.

'cubed
I'm sorry to flaunt my ignorance here, but doesn't every short have to have a corresponding long? In my minds eye I kinda see silver as a football with a few players on the field buying and selling physical and then this stadium full of lunatics screaming their arses off about who is winning. The spectators are the longs and shorts. What is the deal - you are only supposed to go short or long if you actually have the silver or the intention on buying it?
 
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You are right Gcubed, very few would stand for delivery, this game would have been over in 2008, when they drove price to $8. The very number 8 was reached because of nakedness in delivery demand, and that is why silver is volatile, if we had loyal investors as in gold, silver would have been 120$
I can't go for the $120. Just too much of the stuff and more coming on line. I don't care what Teddy B says. ;)
 

d-lod

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I can't go for the $120. Just too much of the stuff and more coming on line. I don't care what Teddy B says. ;)
The absolute $120 is the price in equivalency to gold price of 1979-80, if gold was 800 and had high of 2000/- than silver should have at-least reached 120/-from than high of 50$........................:cool1:
 

silverwood

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Where is the price of silver going near term?:confused: What's your opinion, IMO we have a good chance of silver testing the $26 area support. I will add to the stack at the point.
 

d-lod

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Where is the price of silver going near term?:confused: What's your opinion, IMO we have a good chance of silver testing the $26 area support. I will add to the stack at the point.
Most probably it should return from here, for several reasons, the last visit as you call third time 26, was actually beginning of new impulsive wave as per wave count, if this is third wave of metals bull than the corrections are shallow and fast, and thirdly on weekly and monthly there are doji -which sujjest trend reversal, and MACD LOOKS BULLISH.......................


But than Obama is second time serving and he has to exceed his past performances......................so anything can happen, we may see 2008-09 rhyming..............
 

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Thanks for keeping up with the thread, D-lod! I haven't had time to log on recently, so its nice to read back through the thread and see what all I missed.

I must say, I'm a bit worried here. Either this is the bottom of this little correction, or we go much lower, IMO. If we go lower, we would delay the next major upleg another year or 2.
Personally, I think we begin moving up soon. However, I'm not so sure.
 

d-lod

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Thanks for keeping up with the thread, D-lod! I haven't had time to log on recently, so its nice to read back through the thread and see what all I missed.

I must say, I'm a bit worried here. Either this is the bottom of this little correction, or we go much lower, IMO. If we go lower, we would delay the next major upleg another year or 2.
Personally, I think we begin moving up soon. However, I'm not so sure.
Jelly

Whenever silver take a dip I think of you. There are very remote chances of 80:20 of it falling. This was a major correction, and it took nearly 17 months to show bullish sign. If you see weekly chart, it will show you fear of shorts, where they are not ready to go below 26. The battle had been long one but PM has emerged as currency of distrust among nations and within nation between Govt and people, so though it has visited 26 but not gone beyond it.

Lets take 20% probability of it going down than, the reaction (not correction) will be very swift, as institutions and big buyer already have placed there buy order since long.

The major upleg will not be in next two years, it would be before August.

Rest assured you will double your earlier investment within this year.

History rhymes and PM peaks every two and half year.
 

daozen

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The major upleg will not be in next two years, it would be before August.

Rest assured you will double your earlier investment within this year.

History rhymes and PM peaks every two and half year.
"...what I would do to you, if that is true!"