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Silver next upswing

Zed

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Zed

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Is your money where your words are (or aren't)?

Everyone knows Warren Buffet strongly advises against holding PMs, but he always held that viewpoint, so it could be argued that his opinion is biased.

But this year, lots of former PM bulls are advising holding no PMs or very little PMs.
I hold zero silver right now and only core position in gold.

I only buy paper silver because physical is so damn bulky.

I will not buy any silver until gold's monthly chart turns bullish. Silver is the laggard, so it is much better to wait for gold to exhibit some long-term bullishness before doing anything.
 

d-lod

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Which wave this one is?

If it is fourth than we have covered our correction, as EW rule suggest that 4th wave never enter area of 1st and in silver's case it was 21+.

The fall has stalled by a bullish candle on weekly, there is very small +ve on MACD using 1/3 denominators of value 4,9,3.

Bollinger position suggest a bounce
 

d-lod

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If the correction stops here than it would be 3-5-5 wave correction and it would be 4th wave

also


Buy in May and than go away
 

d-lod

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If you are seeking fundamental of PM, TA of PM, and if any other insight is required than just go through this article and many other posted. There has been mention of Kondratieff Cycle in one of my earlier post too.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1369117863.php

“Tumbling commodity prices over recent weeksare a warning sign to investors that China’s economic miracle is actually agross manipulation of markets that eventually have a nasty ripple effect acrossthe world. Something has changed andmore significantly, people have noticed the change. The world’s major central banks have beendistorting the true price of assets, such as stocks and commodities, bysuppressing interest rates and printing trillions of dollars’ worth of currencyin an effort to stimulate demand. Suchpolicies by the People’s Bank of China will prove particularly harmful giventhat they are layered on top of the central planning policies of the CommunistParty. Efforts by the U.S. FederalReserve and other central banks to jump-start demand have failed. Each new dollar or yuan added to the economyis having less and less of a stimulus effect and is instead further inflating assetand consumer credit bubbles. As China’seconomy continues to slow, commodity prices will decline further and it’spossible that China will even slip into a recession. Today, financial crises arrive faster andmore furiously. While it took 25 yearsfor stocks o rebound from the Great Depression in the 1930s, it took only fouryears for stock markets to recover from the financial crisis of 2009. The accelerated cycles are the result ofdistorting policies and they leave governments and markets more accidentprone. Investors should respond bykeeping large amounts of cash, looking for buying opportunities in depressedsectors … Keep in mind that the price of gold is the reciprocal of the world’sfaith in management of the world’s central banks. Accordingly, investors should own some gold.”
 

d-lod

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http://goldsilverworlds.com/price/5-signs-of-an-imminent-gold-silver-price-rally/


5 Signs Of An Imminent Gold & Silver Price Rally


(1) Excessive speculative shorts and growing commercial longs

In the short run, gold and silver prices are primarily dominated by the futures market (COMEX) as reported in the weekly COT reports. The futures positions of commercials are increasingly long while the speculators are historically short. The first chart below shows those positions. It appears that the short positions of small speculators (small and private investors) are as high as in the years prior to 2000 (just before the current huge bull market started). The divergence between the commercial long and speculative short positions is considerable. Ted Butler repeatedly reports the influence of commercials in driving the price, so the likeability of a rally is high. However, there is one caveat. No matter how well a contrarian position can work, the speculative short positions are so high that it could break whichever rule has worked in the past. Chart courtesy: Sentimentrader and Standard Bank Research.


(2) Sentiment is at extreme levels

Related to the excessive short positions by speculators is their extreme pessimism. The Hulbert Gold Sentiment index is at a reading not even seen in 2008. Current readings have almost no downside; the potential to correct to the upside is higher. Chart courtesy: Sentimentrader

(3) US Dollar is running into resistance

The US Dollar is widely accepted as negatively correlated with the gold and silver price. The following chart of the US Dollar index shows that current readings are at a major resistance point. The 84 level has been tested twice since 2010, so from a chart point of view this is the third retest. The recent upside breakout has been invalidated fast. But if the dollar would confirm its break out it will be very bearish for the metals. Meantime, a short break is likely, meaning it could spur a (temporary) gold and silver rally.

(4) Stock market shows sign of a (temporary) slowdown

The stock market and precious metals are the most negatively correlated assets. No wonder that the S&P 500 and gold have been moving into the opposite direction for the last 7 months now. But the first sign of a slowdown in the equity market is a fact. Moreover, as Zerohedge points out, high yield credit markets start heading down which happened in 2007 as well, exactly one year before the biggest financial crash ever. This could point to increasing volatility. Although the rise in equities is probably not over, the short term moves in both directions are increasingly likely which should give room to a gold and silver bounce.

(5) Gold and silver prices have successfully retested their lows

So far the mid-April lows in the gold and silver price have hold, at least on the daily chart. Silver has breached its lows on an intraday basis, but recovered quite fast. It is too early to have a confirmation of their mid-April lows, but so far (let’s repeat that: so far) it is likely that the lows have been successfully retested.

In no way does it mean that the mid-April lows have been the final lows.
 

d-lod

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Silver has been behaving as if in no mood to come out of 15 months slumber, yes folks, the 2008-09 correction took 8 month while this time it is taking nearly 15, so does this suggest that Alf is wrong once again?

The time factor is suggesting that we are into corrective larger WAVE II than in third.
so is bottom in?
 

eboard10

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Another interesting comment by Avi Gilburt in his latest article on silver:

Silver - We Have Not Likely Hit Bottom Yet
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1474951-silver-we-have-not-likely-hit-bottom-yet

As for where silver is now headed, as long as we remain below the $23.05 resistance, I will be looking for a low with a $19/20 handle before we are able to see a rally back to the $25-27 region. However, I still believe that the rally to the $25-27 region will be sold one last time before a true low is seen in silver.
 

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Another interesting comment by Avi Gilburt in his latest article on silver:
Avi? Another member of the banking tribe telling us the alternative to fiat isn't worth much.:rolleyes:
 

eboard10

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Avi? Another member of the banking tribe telling us the alternative to fiat isn't worth much.:rolleyes:
Actually, he expects Silver going to at least the $60+ region once this correction is over

Yes, I say 60 minimum . . and I can easily see just over 80. And, it is certainly possible to reach that region by mid 2014 . . but I think we may exceed 50 within the next 12 months . . . We will see. But, timing is very hard to determine until we complete the correction.
Feb 10 10:43 PM
Another comment I found enlightening:

Thank you Doug . . but was it ever a consideration that we could see a deflationary depression before silver goes over 100??? And, just like they all got caught holding at 50 and having the market come back in their face, is it possible that we can run to 80 and then fall hard back down to 20?

The problem with the perspective most take is that silver MUST go over 100 and stay there!! Again, markets are not linear, but everyone seems to assume that silver will defy this market principle.
Jan 27 10:38 AM
 
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looks like the bull market is over until it restarts on a monthly time-frame. I've been ignoring the markets all this time and am only replying to advise you to do the same. will be buying a little bit of physical in the 1200s then 1100s.

I'm treating gold like insurance now and not a way to make frns. The nsa and the rest of the crooks in washington are going to destroy this country and gold is a pretty good thing to own just for that reason. If the u.s.a doesn't crash and burn, then at least gold will be valuable again in about 20 years, lol... That's my mindset now anyhow... but it just feels like there needs to be a final act in the gold bull but I'm not counting on it to make money...
 

d-lod

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I'm not buying any silver in the 19.xx because I have a long-term chart says silver wants to visit $15.xx

If silver closes for multiple weeks above $24.50, then I am wrong.
SCOFIELD

The way the correction is taking place, I beleive common investors have abandoned PM, otherwise each dip would have been supported by quick buying and hence all those long doji. But now the dips are just flatlands.....................

so is it time to test your long expected 15+
 

d-lod

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http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/1/18_Rosen_-_Expect_Stunning_%24233_For_Silver_As_It_Begins_To_Soar.html


Ever since the bull market in silver began at $4.01 in November 2001, important and prolonged corrections have taken the form of a triangle. After spending many months forming the triangle a breakout to the upside would take place. The breakout to the upside on each of the three triangles on this monthly chart of silver was followed by a return to and successful test of the breakout level. The successful test was followed months later by a peak at a new high.


The peak of $21.44 after the first triangle was 3.93 times the triangle low of $5.455.


The peak of $49.82 after the second triangle was 5.93 times the triangle low of $8.40.


The third triangle had its breakout to the upside and appears to have completed its testing of that breakout level. If we use the Fibonacci progression that has followed each triangle, the next peak should be 8.93 times the third triangle low of $26.105. This would produce the next silver high of roughly $233....
 

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I beleive common investors have abandoned PM, otherwise each dip would have been supported by quick buying
No. The demand is still strong. Investors have been fooled by paper silver which has more than filled a void of demand, dragging real silver with it. If said paper silver investors wake up and convert to physical silver, it will go parabolic.
 

eboard10

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SCOFIELD

The way the correction is taking place, I beleive common investors have abandoned PM, otherwise each dip would have been supported by quick buying and hence all those long doji. But now the dips are just flatlands.....................

so is it time to test your long expected 15+
If the price of silver drops to those levels, could it mean that we are actually in Wave 2 of a much larger degree? That would also imply that the following upside potential will be huge!
 

d-lod

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If the price of silver drops to those levels, could it mean that we are actually in Wave 2 of a much larger degree? That would also imply that the following upside potential will be huge!
12-08-2011 07:03 AM #255
d-lod
Quote Originally Posted by lightcycler View Post
I really see gold and silver dropping. Gold appears to be tracing out a contracting triangle. I talk about gold because they move somewhat in tandom. My target for gold is around 1600. Silver in the 24 to 26 range. I have dry powder and just waiting. I think this happens over the next two weeks. An explosion higher is coming for sure after that.
DITTO


I know I may be wrong, this is the first time, I am not so sure, but if we have completed Major WAVE ONE than the correction will be deeper.

The technical are simple to analyze as far as precious metal is concerned, on weekly chart the momentum of 14 value has gone deeper than in correction of silver from 21 to 8. That worries me the most.
http://www.goldismoney2.com/showthread.php?16871-Silver-next-correction/page6


This was posted on august 12 2011, and had been repeated many times in this thread, but had few followers.
 

d-lod

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http://www.silverseek.com/commentary/nsa-scandal-may-sober-gold-and-silver-investors-12212



The breaking of the latest National Security Agency scandal practically guarantees there will be no justice for silver and gold investors from the CFTC.



Most likely, precious metal investors will eventually receive yet another disappointing denial from the CFTC that manipulation exists in the silver market, when the concentrated positions and massive dealing size of the major players strongly suggest otherwise.

Basically, without a fair and civil value transmission process in the precious metals market, the great majority of investors are being ultimately robbed of an asset more precious than silver, gold or diamonds. They are deprived of their valuable time that was spent earning the money they are investing.
 

d-lod

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A = 49.78 - 26.05 = 23.73 i.e. 48% fall from the top
B = 26.05 - 37.50 = 11.45
C = 37.50 - 19.50 = 18.00 i.e 48% fall from 37.50, second top.





Any challenger?
 

hoarder

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If the price of silver drops to those levels, could it mean that we are actually in Wave 2 of a much larger degree? That would also imply that the following upside potential will be huge!
If the price of paper silver drops to those levels, it means the supply of paper silver is unlimited. If a small fraction of paper silver investors switch to physical silver, the upside potential will be huge!
 

d-lod

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A = 49.78 - 26.05 = 23.73 i.e. 48% fall from the top
B = 26.05 - 37.50 = 11.45
C = 37.50 - 19.50 = 18.00 i.e 48% fall from 37.50, second top.





Any challenger?



So no comment? Thats' poor show, oh common, I have now my old laptop back and can count waves to detail!
 

d-lod

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A = 49.78 - 26.05 = 23.73 i.e. 48% fall from the top
B = 26.05 - 37.50 = 11.45
C = 37.50 - 19.50 = 18.00 i.e 48% fall from 37.50, second top.





Any challenger?


The challenge is in weak technical...............Macd - no positive divergence, RSI - way below 2009 correction, momentum drowning and all other technicalS are not supporting EW.
 

REO 54

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The challenge is in weak technical...............Macd - no positive divergence, RSI - way below 2009 correction, momentum drowning and all other technicalS are not supporting EW.
So to summarize in laymans terms.......?
 

d-lod

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So to summarize in laymans terms.......?
REO

Its hitman world now the powerful hitter will get its way.

The PM may go up from here and would come back to form same level or deeper correction and still technical could show positive divergence, or this is MAJOR TWO and may correct the whole upleg from $ 4 to $ 49+.

As the correction has crossed 61.8% retracement from $ 4, it has second one at 18.82 and last one at 13.78 ( that would be above 78+% of total upleg)

That seems odd even for paper transactions.
 

Silver Buck

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So no comment? Thats' poor show, oh common, I have now my old laptop back and can count waves to detail!
I can't speak for the rest but this time of year I'm typically quite busy outside and don't spend so much time inside on the computer.

My monthly chart is screaming 'buy' now.
My weekly was begging me to buy back in the week of April 15, but I knew it was a fake out.
My daily shows that we should be set for a run up.
Monthly options just expired, and quarterly are due next week: http://www.marketwatch.com/optionscenter/calendar

The thing is, we're still more than twice the close of the Oct '08 (our 5 year low).

Anyway, I haven't delved deeply into wave theory, but it seems that folks look for 'waves of 5'. Without too much thought, I've added in what I see as 5 up, 5 down waves onto a chart I was doing up for fun using my own TA parameters.

Let's take a look and tell me what you think (remember, I'm just a hack who does this more for fun):



I tossed this together at 4 am, so don't take it too seriously.

The question I see is: Is the 5th leg done going down, or are we headed to $17.75, or even $15.25, before we start legging it up?
 

savvydon

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In EW theory one typically looks for a five wave move up followed by a three wave, ABC, downward correction. The place it gets complicated is that these waves are further broken up into sub waves. The 'art' lies in interpreting where within the matrix we are at any one point: i.e., finding the true wave count.
 

d-lod

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I can't speak for the rest but this time of year I'm typically quite busy outside and don't spend so much time inside on the computer.

My monthly chart is screaming 'buy' now.
My weekly was begging me to buy back in the week of April 15, but I knew it was a fake out.
My daily shows that we should be set for a run up.
Monthly options just expired, and quarterly are due next week: http://www.marketwatch.com/optionscenter/calendar

The thing is, we're still more than twice the close of the Oct '08 (our 5 year low).

Anyway, I haven't delved deeply into wave theory, but it seems that folks look for 'waves of 5'. Without too much thought, I've added in what I see as 5 up, 5 down waves onto a chart I was doing up for fun using my own TA parameters.

Let's take a look and tell me what you think (remember, I'm just a hack who does this more for fun):



I tossed this together at 4 am, so don't take it too seriously.

The question I see is: Is the 5th leg done going down, or are we headed to $17.75, or even $15.25, before we start legging it up?


Bravo Silverbuck


You have been great in posting that response, specially when it is posted at 4 am.

EW has three golden rules:


Rule 1: Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave 1.

Rule 2: Wave 3 can never be the shortest of the three impulse waves.

Rule 3: Wave 4 can never overlap Wave 1.


There are two types of waves: impulse and corrective. Impulse waves move in the direction of the larger degree wave. When the larger degree wave is up, advancing waves are impulsive and declining waves are corrective. When the larger degree wave is down, impulse waves are down and corrective waves are up. Impulse waves, also called motive waves, move with the bigger trend or larger degree wave. Corrective waves move against the larger degree wave.

Lets answer your question whether this corrective waves has any further downward motion?

It could be answered using various technical analysis tools.

One of them is combination of fibo retracement levels and EW, according to it, I have already posted the level

A = 49.78 - 26.05 = 23.73 i.e. 48% fall from the top
B = 26.05 - 37.50 = 11.45
C = 37.50 - 19.50 = 18.00 i.e 48% fall from 37.50, second top.

so 19.50 could be last downward movement. Secondly only using fibo is 18.82. or 13.8, of which there is remote chances.


Just use rough analogy

Silver prices increased from $ 4 to $ 21+ that is more than five times and than it increased from $ 8+ to $ 49+ that is more than six times, while it retraced to $ 8+, that is twice the price of bottom, if we go by that than this time it should retrace upto 18+, as that is 2 and 1/2 time of $ 8+.
 
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