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Silver next upswing

d-lod

dawn
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So to summarize in laymans terms.......?
REO

Its hitman world now the powerful hitter will get its way.

The PM may go up from here and would come back to form same level or deeper correction and still technical could show positive divergence, or this is MAJOR TWO and may correct the whole upleg from $ 4 to $ 49+.

As the correction has crossed 61.8% retracement from $ 4, it has second one at 18.82 and last one at 13.78 ( that would be above 78+% of total upleg)

That seems odd even for paper transactions.
 

Silver Buck

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So no comment? Thats' poor show, oh common, I have now my old laptop back and can count waves to detail!
I can't speak for the rest but this time of year I'm typically quite busy outside and don't spend so much time inside on the computer.

My monthly chart is screaming 'buy' now.
My weekly was begging me to buy back in the week of April 15, but I knew it was a fake out.
My daily shows that we should be set for a run up.
Monthly options just expired, and quarterly are due next week: http://www.marketwatch.com/optionscenter/calendar

The thing is, we're still more than twice the close of the Oct '08 (our 5 year low).

Anyway, I haven't delved deeply into wave theory, but it seems that folks look for 'waves of 5'. Without too much thought, I've added in what I see as 5 up, 5 down waves onto a chart I was doing up for fun using my own TA parameters.

Let's take a look and tell me what you think (remember, I'm just a hack who does this more for fun):



I tossed this together at 4 am, so don't take it too seriously.

The question I see is: Is the 5th leg done going down, or are we headed to $17.75, or even $15.25, before we start legging it up?
 

savvydon

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In EW theory one typically looks for a five wave move up followed by a three wave, ABC, downward correction. The place it gets complicated is that these waves are further broken up into sub waves. The 'art' lies in interpreting where within the matrix we are at any one point: i.e., finding the true wave count.
 

d-lod

dawn
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I can't speak for the rest but this time of year I'm typically quite busy outside and don't spend so much time inside on the computer.

My monthly chart is screaming 'buy' now.
My weekly was begging me to buy back in the week of April 15, but I knew it was a fake out.
My daily shows that we should be set for a run up.
Monthly options just expired, and quarterly are due next week: http://www.marketwatch.com/optionscenter/calendar

The thing is, we're still more than twice the close of the Oct '08 (our 5 year low).

Anyway, I haven't delved deeply into wave theory, but it seems that folks look for 'waves of 5'. Without too much thought, I've added in what I see as 5 up, 5 down waves onto a chart I was doing up for fun using my own TA parameters.

Let's take a look and tell me what you think (remember, I'm just a hack who does this more for fun):



I tossed this together at 4 am, so don't take it too seriously.

The question I see is: Is the 5th leg done going down, or are we headed to $17.75, or even $15.25, before we start legging it up?


Bravo Silverbuck


You have been great in posting that response, specially when it is posted at 4 am.

EW has three golden rules:


Rule 1: Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave 1.

Rule 2: Wave 3 can never be the shortest of the three impulse waves.

Rule 3: Wave 4 can never overlap Wave 1.


There are two types of waves: impulse and corrective. Impulse waves move in the direction of the larger degree wave. When the larger degree wave is up, advancing waves are impulsive and declining waves are corrective. When the larger degree wave is down, impulse waves are down and corrective waves are up. Impulse waves, also called motive waves, move with the bigger trend or larger degree wave. Corrective waves move against the larger degree wave.

Lets answer your question whether this corrective waves has any further downward motion?

It could be answered using various technical analysis tools.

One of them is combination of fibo retracement levels and EW, according to it, I have already posted the level

A = 49.78 - 26.05 = 23.73 i.e. 48% fall from the top
B = 26.05 - 37.50 = 11.45
C = 37.50 - 19.50 = 18.00 i.e 48% fall from 37.50, second top.

so 19.50 could be last downward movement. Secondly only using fibo is 18.82. or 13.8, of which there is remote chances.


Just use rough analogy

Silver prices increased from $ 4 to $ 21+ that is more than five times and than it increased from $ 8+ to $ 49+ that is more than six times, while it retraced to $ 8+, that is twice the price of bottom, if we go by that than this time it should retrace upto 18+, as that is 2 and 1/2 time of $ 8+.
 
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Silver Buck

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It's going to take me some more time of studying this (perhaps another year or so) but I do find charting and wave theory fascinating.

Looking at different sources, charts, and theories, it does seem that this coming week could be the bottom. If not then, then perhaps in August?
 

Silver Buck

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In EW theory one typically looks for a five wave move up followed by a three wave, ABC, downward correction. The place it gets complicated is that these waves are further broken up into sub waves. The 'art' lies in interpreting where within the matrix we are at any one point: i.e., finding the true wave count.
I take it you count the crests on the way up, but do you count the troughs on the way down?
 

d-lod

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It's going to take me some more time of studying this (perhaps another year or so) but I do find charting and wave theory fascinating.

Looking at different sources, charts, and theories, it does seem that this coming week could be the bottom. If not then, then perhaps in August?
yes it takes two correction and lots of losses to be at my level:s9::s9::burnout:

Now along with EW, I use fibo and other indicators. But you will learn by fumbling and expressing.
 

savvydon

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I take it you count the crests on the way up, but do you count the troughs on the way down?
Waves are counted trough to crest and crest to trough. The correct terminology is that the waves are impulse when they are in the direction of the overall trend and corrective when they are against the larger trend. Impulse waves are grouped in fives and corrective ones in threes. The corrective waves, since they run against the overall trend, are often less easily defined, and are classically said to fall into one of four patterns, Zigzag (further broken down into 5-3-5 wave patterns), Flat (3-3-5 patterns), Triangle (3-3-3-3-3 patterns either ascending,descending,contracting, or expanding), or double three and triple three combined structures.

The real trick is to recognize the larger picture and then be able to systematically find the counts on progressively shorter time frames until you have a reasonable understanding of where you think you are in the wave count at present. By using the simple rules such as presented above by d-lod you can find instances where patterns are violated and then you have to find where you mislabeled and adjust accordingly.

A decent place to start learning EW is the book Elliot Wave Principle by Frost and Prechter.
 

lightcycler

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Glad to see this thread still kicking. It has been a long time since it felt like a bottom was near. Sure wish I had a ton of free FRN's. Good work all and especially Dlod. Good stuff. Looks like you have been studying hard savvydon.
 
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savvydon

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Glad to see this thread still kicking. It has been a long time since it felt like a bottom was near. Sure wish I had a ton of free FRN's. Good work all and especially Dlod. Good stuff. Looks like you have been studying hard savvydon.
Trying, my friend... Good to see you still on the boards. :party30:
 

d-lod

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Bravo Silverbuck


You have been great in posting that response, specially when it is posted at 4 am.

EW has three golden rules:


Rule 1: Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave 1.

Rule 2: Wave 3 can never be the shortest of the three impulse waves.

Rule 3: Wave 4 can never overlap Wave 1.





Lets answer your question whether this corrective waves has any further downward motion?

It could be answered using various technical analysis tools.

One of them is combination of fibo retracement levels and EW, according to it, I have already posted the level

A = 49.78 - 26.05 = 23.73 i.e. 48% fall from the top
B = 26.05 - 37.50 = 11.45
C = 37.50 - 19.50 = 18.00 i.e 48% fall from 37.50, second top.

so 19.50 could be last downward movement. Secondly only using fibo is 18.82. or 13.8, of which there is remote chances.


Just use rough analogy

Silver prices increased from $ 4 to $ 21+ that is more than five times and than it increased from $ 8+ to $ 49+ that is more than six times, while it retraced to $ 8+, that is twice the price of bottom, if we go by that than this time it should retrace upto 18+, as that is 2 and 1/2 time of $ 8+.


All technical and fundamental (production cost+demand and supply) are converging to price between 18 - 19) as bottom, on top of it, tomorrow is quarterly option expiry.

Silver was more stabilized than gold today, that may indicate bottom formation. The challenge still is with positive divergence.
 

REO 54

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D-lod and 'lancers.........a good match to watch. WAY better than dancing the stars!
:thumbs_up:
 

d-lod

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yeah, its needed that $20 for a long time........that will set up large Elliott wave big 3 up of giant 3..........i'm bullish, believe it or not.....giant wave 1 was from $4 to $21, big wave two down was back to $8, wave 1 of this giant 3 was $8 to $50, hopefully this is it for wave 2 ($50 down to $20ish), then ??? $20 to $100??? (multiples of 500% ???).....cheers from an old man....$100
So pimples

is it MAJOR II or wave 2 of MAJOR III?
 

d-lod

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One of the better EW guys out there maybe...Dont see 1180 mentioned anywhere here. Wonder where this puts his wave count currently? Metals due for a good bounce after the unrelenting down move off the mid 1500's in Gold.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/field041413.html
10-01-2011 06:28 PM

http://www.goldismoney2.com/showthread.php?21077-GOLD-IN-THIRD-WAVE&p=270589&viewfull=1#post270589

http://www.goldismoney2.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=11424&stc=1&d=1317508092

Steep uptrend violated on this P and F chart. You can see where support comes in.

M'Lord

You have answered your query earlier too
 

d-lod

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One of the better EW guys out there maybe...Dont see 1180 mentioned anywhere here. Wonder where this puts his wave count currently? Metals due for a good bounce after the unrelenting down move off the mid 1500's in Gold.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/field041413.html


A = 1920 - 1525 = 395 roughly
B = 1525 - 1800 = 275 approx
C = 1800 - 1405 = 395 (a = C)
C = 1800 - 1168 = 632(1.6 of A)
Posted on 05-28-2013 12:18 PM #352 d-lod


This wave counts were posted on 28th of May, nobody might have thought that we will be visiting nearly 1168, but EW had facilitated that projected price, 1180.20, to be precise.
 

d-lod

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http://www.sprottgroup.com/thoughts/articles/silver-is-winning-india%E2%80%99s-%E2%80%9Cwar-on-gold%E2%80%9D/


While India imported 1,900 tonnes of silver in 2012, in the first five months of 2013 alone, imports have touched 2,400 tonnes. According to industry estimates, silver imports during the January-March quarter stood at 760 tonnes. Imports shot up to 720 tonnes in April alone, and in May they further swelled by 920 tonnes.2 Let’s put these numbers in perspective, according to the Silver Institute, the world produced 24,478 tonnes of silver in 2012, implying that Indians have imported almost 10% of world production so far this year. If they continue to import at the same rate as they have in May, over the next 12 months India could import close to half of world silver production which is a truly staggering shift in demand for silver.


Indian..............Indians..................The Golden Bird breeding silver birdee
 

Zed

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Posted on 05-28-2013 12:18 PM #352 d-lod


This wave counts were posted on 28th of May, nobody might have thought that we will be visiting nearly 1168, but EW had facilitated that projected price, 1180.20, to be precise.
Nobody?

Steady on old chap, that is a bit strong. :cheerful:
 

d-lod

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As you are aware 1180 support was rising and was subsequently violated to the downside. The target price/time date was 20 months ago. All supports on the way down have been violated. Same with Silver. Anyone still bullish Silver and buying dips has to reconcile a double top, violation of the 50% of the highest selling price of 25, violation of the 50% of the range 3.50-49 at 26, breaking through a double bottom bottom at 26, breaking through the old highs of 21.30.

PNF chart I posted doesn't answer the current question about Gold at all. Maybe Field sticks the dreaded X wave in here.;)
Field is busy re-calculating his waves
 

andial

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As you are aware 1180 support was rising and was subsequently violated to the downside. The target price/time date was 20 months ago. All supports on the way down have been violated. Same with Silver. Anyone still bullish Silver and buying dips has to reconcile a double top, violation of the 50% of the highest selling price of 25, violation of the 50% of the range 3.50-49 at 26, breaking through a double bottom bottom at 26, breaking through the old highs of 21.30.

PNF chart I posted doesn't answer the current question about Gold at all. Maybe Field sticks the dreaded X wave in here.;)
What a barrage of punches that was, surprised Silver is still standing after that.
 

d-lod

dawn
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Correction has ended?

What a barrage of punches that was, surprised Silver is still standing after that.
Andial

You are decider, whether among elliot or Ishlancer, who should win.

Here are the count as per Elliot

This is larger ABC correction of Wave 2 of rise from 8+ to 49.78.

A= 49.78 - 26.05 = 23.73 --------------approx. 48% from 49.78 top
B= 26.05 - 37.50 = 11.45
C= 37.50 - 18.20 = 19.30 --------------approx. 48% from 37.50 top.
 

d-lod

dawn
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Re: Correction has ended?

Andial

You are decider, whether among elliot or Ishlancer, who should win.

Here are the count as per Elliot

This is larger ABC correction of Wave 2 of rise from 8+ to 49.78.

A= 49.78 - 26.05 = 23.73 --------------approx. 48% from 49.78 top
B= 26.05 - 37.50 = 11.45
C= 37.50 - 18.20 = 19.30 --------------approx. 48% from 37.50 top.


The silver short squeeze will support next upleg for sure....................


http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/06.13/squeeze.html


Now, let me let you in on my secret weapon… the Monthly VC Chart. This will be the only time that I post this chart. Based off the Monthly VC chart, we are between the buy1 and buy2 level. As a trader this is very exciting to see, especially now when many are pessimistic. July should be a very interesting month for silver based off these two charts. A short squeeze is coming our way sooner than some may think.

Before we get ahead of ourselves, after the first initial short squeeze, which I expect in July, I would not be surprised to see lows tested one last time to destroy any bullish confidence left in the market. I am expecting a nice swing trade coming out of this price action soon and then a larger swing trade to set up once the lows get retested. This could mean a lower low later in the year is possible.

As a trader I will be open to this, but one thing is sure, I am not selling my physical metal in expectation of this. I will only use further pull backs as invitations to buy more physical and trade the volatility to increase my cash flow as I scale in at these lows
 

andial

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Re: Correction has ended?

Andial

You are decider, whether among elliot or Ishlancer, who should win.

Here are the count as per Elliot

This is larger ABC correction of Wave 2 of rise from 8+ to 49.78.

A= 49.78 - 26.05 = 23.73 --------------approx. 48% from 49.78 top
B= 26.05 - 37.50 = 11.45
C= 37.50 - 18.20 = 19.30 --------------approx. 48% from 37.50 top.
Just saw this d-lod, me decider? I know nothing really of charting, am presently caught bag holding from the 2011 tops, and am hoping for a run up. You are going to have to find someone who is less partial.
 

d-lod

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http://hubertmoolman.wordpress.com/2013/07/03/silver-price-forecast-the-dow-and-gold-silver-ratio-signals-coming-silver-rally/


The ratio is currently retesting the area from which it broke down when it started the spectacular rally in 2010. If this area between 67 and 70 holds, then the ratio is likely to fall significantly. Note that this ratio falls significantly mostly when silver and gold is having a rally (with silver outpacing gold of course).

silver at breakout point

Silver is currently retesting its important breakout area of 2010 (similar to the gold/silver ratio). That breakout area of 2010 appears to be a critical area. If this area holds (which is very likely), then silver is likely to start a massive multi-month rally


I miss Ishlancer's skeptic, silver at 49 and Au-myn PF chart for gold and silver
 

d-lod

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Ishlancer is winning

The bottom of 18.20 is going to be surpassed in this feRocity of dumping, so we are again back to square.

There has been no positive divergence yet.
 

Garyw

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No matter what the price of physical metal when the crash comes barter will prevail and the words of Bruce Williams will shine! Something is only worth what someone else will give for it. Food Water Protection and all God given items will prevail. Save anything provided by God.
 

d-lod

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I wouldn't be surprised to see positive divergences on the retest of the previous bottoms. Then a rally failure followed by new lows. This should take some time though.
like alf, Iam calculating and recalculating......................OMG ITS TIRING...........

Ihslancers


The probable bottom could be sixteen, I was visting this and "Gold in third wave" - thread and this price was projected in t, you also were, suggesting similar number
 

Traderjoe

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I wouldn't be surprised to see positive divergences on the retest of the previous bottoms. Then a rally failure followed by new lows. This should take some time though.
Last time you were this negative silver took off like a rocket. ie actually silver sucks thread.
I don't want people loading up their hoards of silver and taking it to the lcs just yet. Nobody needs to be
scared. Some talk about the damage the pumpers do but there is another side.
 

Traderjoe

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Another from the peanut gallery. Actually the last time I was this negative Silver was trading above 45 bucks. But you can go ahead and delude yourself with your selective memory.
It was 16 or 17 dollars. Talk about selective memory. Do you have access to the thread you started called actually silver sucks?
 

engineear

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I'm sure myself or someone else has said the markets are manipulated, which, for me, begs the question...How can charts and graphs mean anything? If the person behind the curtain says..."grease 'er down Timmy", how is that connected to a chart/graph? Sorry, I just don't get it. ("grease 'er down Timmy" refers to the live Vanilla Fudge album where the lead bass player, Tim Bogert[self proclaimed lead bass]had his turn to solo and someone in the band yells to him..."Grease 'er down Timmy", his cue to shine...no reference to Tim-turbo-tax-Geitner)
"How did you get the beans over the frank?" Franks and beans, franks and beans!

Just my 2 centavos...play on play on.
 

Reason

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I'm sure myself or someone else has said the markets are manipulated, which, for me, begs the question...How can charts and graphs mean anything? If the person behind the curtain says..."grease 'er down Timmy", how is that connected to a chart/graph? Sorry, I just don't get it. ("grease 'er down Timmy" refers to the live Vanilla Fudge album where the lead bass player, Tim Bogert[self proclaimed lead bass]had his turn to solo and someone in the band yells to him..."Grease 'er down Timmy", his cue to shine...no reference to Tim-turbo-tax-Geitner)
"How did you get the beans over the frank?" Franks and beans, franks and beans!

Just my 2 centavos...play on play on.
They don't mean anything. This is the reason why when gold was going up everyone was up in arms that it's going to the moon. Meanwhile, as gold began to plunge heavily you began to see masses of people become awkwardly uncomfortable. We're not talking about two different camps here, either. We're talking about the same consensus that gets formed whether up or down. And you can see the mass consensus being formed live in front of your eyes on a moment to moment basis whenever gold/silver goes up sharply or down.

The ONLY things to consider are the following:

1) Big trends lead to inevitable outcomes (how will our money printing end up?)
2) What price are you willing to buy at?

Everything else is mental masturbation.

Whether gold/silver goes up or down in the short run is literally irrelevant when it comes to the long-haul.

I think in this game it's more appropriate to not hold your eye on the ball, but on the game at large. Where the ball ends up is irrelevant if the subject is the game as a whole.

With that said - I think too many people have too much time on their hands by trying to predict certain patterns. Maybe I'm wrong.
 

shades

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I did some casual math, any point under 20 here is a good buy-in point, long term. I think I predicted it going as low as 18 earlier this year.

The tricky part is actually getting your hands on it when it is selling well.
 

hoarder

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17.85 to be exact and I didn't run away and hide at that point but fully admitted it. How many pumpers got guys in trouble buying 40's Silver and 1700 plus Gold. To da moon.
The manipulators got people in trouble. The fundamentals never changed.
 

bemac

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The manipulators got people in trouble. The fundamentals never changed.
It should be obvious now that paper gold was helping to push prices up, not down. Just a lot of speculation caused by the Fed. It's what they do.
 

hoarder

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It should be obvious now that paper gold was helping to push prices up, not down. Just a lot of speculation caused by the Fed. It's what they do.
How does increasing the supply of a commodity push prices up?
 

d-lod

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They don't mean anything. This is the reason why when gold was going up everyone was up in arms that it's going to the moon. Meanwhile, as gold began to plunge heavily you began to see masses of people become awkwardly uncomfortable. We're not talking about two different camps here, either. We're talking about the same consensus that gets formed whether up or down. And you can see the mass consensus being formed live in front of your eyes on a moment to moment basis whenever gold/silver goes up sharply or down.

The ONLY things to consider are the following:

1) Big trends lead to inevitable outcomes (how will our money printing end up?)
2) What price are you willing to buy at?

Everything else is mental masturbation.

Whether gold/silver goes up or down in the short run is literally irrelevant when it comes to the long-haul.

I think in this game it's more appropriate to not hold your eye on the ball, but on the game at large. Where the ball ends up is irrelevant if the subject is the game as a whole.

With that said - I think too many people have too much time on their hands by trying to predict certain patterns. Maybe I'm wrong.
I believe everyone has time, and if we could predict it properly, it is well used (time). this thread has manage to predict well upto previous bottom, but since the extended, downfall, it has lost the objectivity.

We were happy with extended 5th wave extension to 1912, but are not able to look positively at correction.
Night follows day, ideal time to get rest, and so is this correction. I understand that some of us are holding bag from 40,$, but than if we are in physical, it is part and parcel of accumulating wealth. I have purchased when it was four dollar and also at 19-20, when it was hammered to 8+, but overall I am not in red.

I have used TA to utilize it to trade this two metal at their differential ratios..............so for me it is challenge, fun, gain and loss.
More than FRN, we are loosing our time (life) which is most precious, so enjoy the game till it last and make FRN out of this active game.

And yes PM is very undervalued for the scarcity of it below ground for ever growing world population.