Silver next upswing

[GOLDZILLA]

I think alot of people think silver is topping, but still despise the dollar. Maybe alot of them are trading silver to gold to avoid this or the rumored margin call coming tomorrow.

 

[d-lod]

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Banister/may022011.html

Silver then eventually ran to $45 per ounce in April of 2011 and had a brief spike to near $50 to test the all time highs just in the past week or so. The action has been wild since then, because after a wave pattern from $18 to $31, then back to $26, then up to $47… the crowd will begin to turn mildly pessimistic in a current “wave 4 “ correction pattern. This is when you will begin to hear excuses for Silver dropping, including believe it or not blamed on the death of Osama Bin Laden. In truth, whatever happens near term to explain the current correction in Silver is simply Monday morning quarterbacking. Using the current days headlines to explain the action that I already know is coming. Other excuses are the change in margin requirements on silver contracts and the squaring of positions at end of month etc.

I expect Silver to correct to the 40 to $42.75 areas based on my Fibonacci work and Elliott Wave views, and after this 4th wave consolidation we will see a surge to as high as $60 per ounce. Any pullbacks in Silver should be bought here and same with the Silver stocks post haste. Below is my latest chart forecast on Silver:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/maund/may022011_silver.html

To say that silver's uptrend looks unsustainable on its long-term charts would rank as one of the understatements of the year, given how incredibly overbought it is on its MACD indicator, yet, as we have observed the latest COT chart does suggest another upleg. You have all heard the saying "Be careful what you wish for - (because you might not like the consequences if it comes true), and that is certainly the case here, for if silver's meltup continues, and gold moves into meltup mode too, which may have just started on Friday, then it probably means a collapse in the dollar - not a drop, a COLLAPSE, that will have disastrous consequences for the US economy and way of life as a result of inflation ramping up in the direction of hyperinflation, which will collapse living standards in the US and destroy the middle class (what's left of it), most of whom will suddenly find gas unaffordable and food very costly. It will be back to commuting to work on a bus, if you are lucky enough to have a job, that is, and if you happen to live near a bus route. Look on the bright side, it will at least help to conserve the world's oil supplies.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Handwerger/may022011.html

My basic objective of this service is to help readers secure profits and realized gains. You must sell and take partial profits as targets are reached. Selling at overhead resistance or while it is still advancing is reminiscent of the great investors such as the Rothschild’s and Bernard Baruch who stated that no one gets the top or bottom. The goal is catching the majority of the move.

Once my technical targets begin getting hit, I begin to reduce my exposure as the price continues to advance past that target. One has to remember that the reason we are in this position of sitting with hefty gains is because we bought right in late January as gold and silver were oversold and reaching long term support. Now in late April three months later silver has reversed reaching overhead resistance and gold is still in the process of reaching the $1600 target. I would use gold’s upper resistance line as a more valid place to look for profit taking opportunities on both metals.

It is important to learn to sell when others are too optimistic and buy when others are scared to death. Silver (SLV) is close to 70% above the 200 day moving average, moving parabolically and surpassing overhead resistance, while gold (GLD) is only 12% above the 200 day moving average. This is extremely divergent from the historical mean. We may see silver stalling while gold plays catch up. We are in a buying hysteria and short squeeze in silver. During these times it has historically been wise to sell into euphoria. When the herd begins exiting it may be painful...the pigs wanting the top may get slaughtered.

 

[d-lod]

BREAKING OF 43.11 WILL BE QUICK DOWNFALL

 

[Solo]

BREAKING OF 43.11 WILL BE QUICK DOWNFALL

I sure hope so! Come on $30 :cool1:!!!!

 

[d-lod]

I sure hope so! Come on $30 :cool1:!!!!

40.48

Touched already and still moving towards its correction level

 

[jelly]

Keep up the good work D-lod. I'm studying this movement and am trying to determine if this is just a minor correction before a violent spike up. Or if this is indeed the start of the summer correction I've been waiting for, to drop us down to the low $30's. What do you think? This should be interesting.

 

[d-lod]

Keep up the good work D-lod. I'm studying this movement and am trying to determine if this is just a minor correction before a violent spike up. Or if this is indeed the start of the summer correction I've been waiting for, to drop us down to the low $30's. What do you think? This should be interesting.

Jelly

This is not reaction, it is correction. 49.78 - 40.48 = 9.3 is more than 15% so far.

Lets see probable CORRECTIVE waves ABC

i - 49.78 - 44.60 = 5.18$
ii - 44.60 - 49.54 = 4.94$
iii - 49.54 - 42.14 = 7.4o$
iv - 42.14 - 47.36 = 5.22$
v - 47.36 - 39.08 = 8.28$

 

[daozen]

I know nothing technical or otherwise, except what I've been learning this last month or 2, but intuitively If you look at a 6 month, 1 year graph you can see the price should be about 40, which means correction to low 30's, thing is will the market let get there, it might bounce back right after it goes below 35.

Personaly and unfortunately it doesn't change much for me since I'm limited to ebay, prices haven't dropped at all. I'll still wait till it hits $34 to buy at $58 + shipping!, hopefully sellers will have some mercy and drop a few $s :eek:

 

[Solo]

Personaly and unfortunately it doesn't change much for me since I'm limited to ebay, prices haven't dropped at all. I'll still wait till it hits $34 to buy at $58 + shipping!, hopefully sellers will have some mercy and drop a few $s :eek:

You just need to play the rebate game. You can routinely buy 90% under melt using the IE9 rebate right now. Try searching just the US coins and/or the bullion categories by themselves while sorting by "Newest First". There are several of us on the GIM2 that buy gold and silver below melt nearly every day (see the great snags thread) so it can be done.

 

[Argentsum]

Silver is a harsh mistress. She will treat you like crap, spurn your attention, laugh at your grief. Just when your ready to throw in the towel she's a voracious little minx who sets you on a pedestal with your head in the clouds...right after which she kicks the pedestal out from you and acts like nothing happened.

Gold is the lady you show to your parents. Silver is the broad whose photo you show the guys at the bar.

 

[REO 54]

Silver is a harsh mistress. She will treat you like crap, spurn your attention, laugh at your grief. Just when your ready to throw in the towel she's a voracious little minx who sets you on a pedestal with your head in the clouds...right after which she kicks the pedestal out from you and acts like nothing happened.

Gold is the lady you show to your parents. Silver is the broad whose photo you show the guys at the bar.

That is quite a metaphor...and it may be true....but you can still make gains on her....

 

[budfox]

Silver is a harsh mistress. She will treat you like crap, spurn your attention, laugh at your grief. Just when your ready to throw in the towel she's a voracious little minx who sets you on a pedestal with your head in the clouds...right after which she kicks the pedestal out from you and acts like nothing happened.

Gold is the lady you show to your parents. Silver is the broad whose photo you show the guys at the bar.

You've met my x-wife?

 

[d-lod]

Jelly

This is not reaction, it is correction. 49.78 - 40.48 = 9.3 is more than 15% so far.

Lets see probable CORRECTIVE waves ABC

i - 49.78 - 44.60 = 5.18$
ii - 44.60 - 49.54 = 4.94$
iii - 49.54 - 42.14 = 7.4o$
iv - 42.14 - 47.36 = 5.22$
v - 47.36 - 39.08 = 8.28$

v - 47.36 - 39.08 = 8.28$

38.82 has been reached, over the target of 39.05

so the next move would be upside unless silver wants to correct by 2.6% of 5.18 (wave i) = 13.46 = 33.90

 

[d-lod]

38.82 has been reached, over the target of 39.05

so the next move would be upside unless silver wants to correct by 2.6% of 5.18 (wave i) = 13.46 = 33.90

Marching towards 33.90

 

[Argentsum]

That is quite a metaphor...and it may be true....but you can still make gains on her....

Don't I know it. I just completed a quick, in-an-out, slam-bang-thank you Ma'am on the poor girl.

 

[d-lod]

Don't I know it. I just completed a quick, in-an-out, slam-bang-thank you Ma'am on the poor girl.

She ain't poor girl. She is very rich and makes me richer.

I got back my 3kg silver (that is 100 0z only) at 33.05. Sold at 49.50

 

[d-lod]

38.82 has been reached, over the target of 39.05

so the next move would be upside unless silver wants to correct by 2.6% of 5.18 (wave i) = 13.46 = 33.90

33.90 is acheived

 

[REO 54]

Don't I know it. I just completed a quick, in-an-out, slam-bang-thank you Ma'am on the poor girl.

Nice.Nothing wrong with that,long as you said thank you to the nice lady for a goodtime..er I mean profit.

 

[CiscoKid]

Is it "buy time" yet???

 

[d-lod]

Is it "buy time" yet???

The wave A was 49.78 to 33.05 =16.73
wave B could be 33.05 to 37.04/39.38/41.37/43.36

 

[d-lod]

The buying time for physical holder may come latter when the MACD shows positive divergence at the real bottom. The present upside movement is technical correction in a major downward wave.

 

[Silver Sahara]

The buying time for physical holder may come latter when the MACD shows positive divergence at the real bottom. The present upside movement is technical correction in a major downward wave.

So where do you speculate the real bottom and when do you speculate that could be?

 

[d-lod]

The wave A was 49.78 to 33.05 =16.73
wave B could be 33.05 to 37.04/39.38/41.37/43.36

39.49 was the level that silver went to on the upside, and it means little less than 38.2 fibo level

 

[lhslancers3270]

39.49 was the level that silver went to on the upside, and it means little less than 38.2 fibo level

Only managing a 3/8 retrace means a "weak" market. If the C equals the A leg down we could see 17 bucks peeled off that 39 dollar handle or 22 bucks just above the old 21.30 high. I would nibble 30 on down in small ounces if I wanted Silver.

 

[d-lod]

Only managing a 3/8 retrace means a "weak" market. If the C equals the A leg down we could see 17 bucks peeled off that 39 dollar handle or 22 bucks just above the old 21.30 high. I would nibble 30 on down in small ounces if I wanted Silver.

Right on lhslancers3270

It is 22.76 to be precise and near to tn wave I level of 21.34 march 2008. Wave IV has its rightful bottom at the top of wave I.

but puru has different opinion

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1305259185.php

 

[d-lod]

Wave B of the correction is on and it will give rise to Wave C of equal value to A. That will end correction by end of fall.

 

[d-lod]

Wave B of the correction is on and it will give rise to Wave C of equal value to A. That will end correction by end of fall.

22.03 if it is going to be A = C

 

[d-lod]

If level of 35.56 is taken away than next expected support would be in the range of 29.23.

 

[Jodster]

D-lod,

I have a hard time visualizing your projections without a chart. I understand you take this seriously and put a lot of thought into this . . . Thank you for keeping us updated.

Whatever tools you TA folks use . . . . be it Fibonacci or Elliott wave or whatever, keep up the fine work! I won't make my decisions based on it solely, but I see the value in it.

 

[d-lod]

D-lod,

I have a hard time visualizing your projections without a chart. I understand you take this seriously and put a lot of thought into this . . . Thank you for keeping us updated.

Whatever tools you TA folks use . . . . be it Fibonacci or Elliott wave or whatever, keep up the fine work! I won't make my decisions based on it solely, but I see the value in it.

Hey Jodster

I understand your challenges without charts, but the technique that I follow is Elliot wave and it is mostly all about wave counts, so I haven't bothered myself with learning the uploading part.

As I had mentioned that wave C will be deeper than wave,( as in this thread it was mentioned in month of may that )the wave C may extend upto 22.6.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Trendsman/jun272011.html

Gold has actually peaked at $1550 and looks headed down to $1475. It hasn’t bottomed but is in a bullish consolidation that will likely continue into August. In terms of sentiment, Silver looks excellent. Sentiment suggests a lack of material downside but Silver’s rebounds continue to fail and now the metal will retest $33. It could bottom at $30-$31. To conclude, further consolidation in Gold will likely fuel a stronger breakout at somepoint but not until August at the earliest. Silver needs to confirm a bottom and build a strong base. We won’t see an explosion until the market exceeds $50 which may not happen for another 12 months. First these markets need to sustain an uptrend before an explosion can happen. It is just wishful thinking.

 

[d-lod]

http://www.kitco.com/ind/maund/jun272011.html

While the long-term chart for gold shows a steady uptrend that looks set to continue, free from the kind of speculative excess that would indicate a possible top, the same cannot be said for the 4-year chart for silver, on which the late April peak looks like even more of an anomaly. This chart suggests that at best silver needs more of a rest before it can gain serious traction again, and that it is likely to dip to the $28 - $30 area first - lower still if the stockmarket tanks as look likely soon - more on this subject in the Gold Market update.

Technical Analysis is also about seeing picture before it emerges, we had been able to do it before two months. At the peak of 49, this thread had suggested bigger draw back in prices.

 

[d-lod]

Only managing a 3/8 retrace means a "weak" market. If the C equals the A leg down we could see 17 bucks peeled off that 39 dollar handle or 22 bucks just above the old 21.30 high. I would nibble 30 on down in small ounces if I wanted Silver.

CATCH 22

Buyer will be happy as eventually she is rising to make a big B, while non buyer will have great opportunity to buy at lower rates. It is win win for both.

 

[jelly]

So you think silver is still in correction mode, right? You are saying we are in an upmove right now, still waiting for the final wave down to end this correction?

 

[d-lod]

So you think silver is still in correction mode, right? You are saying we are in an upmove right now, still waiting for the final wave down to end this correction?

Yes Jelly, because corrections are correction and not reactions. The correction patterns last time was 8 month old. If we look at history the first wave was corrected from

Wave 2 - 08.43 to 05.52 = $ 02.90. in April 2004
Wave 4 - 15.18 to 09.42 = $ 05.76 in July 2007
Wave A - 21.34 to 15.98 = $ 05.36, 34%
Wave B - 15.98 to 19.44 = $ 03.46, 21%
Wave C - 19.44 to 08.46 = $ 10.98, 56%

It took 8 months to correct 60% of total price and 74% of price rise.

 

[Jodster]

d-lod,

Can you give us a ballpark projection as to what we'll see in the coming weeks and months? I honestly thought the pullback in the last 2 weeks would be deeper and was going to stock up if silver hit $32/oz. It never did.
Do you think this run up will reverse once QE3 is announced and how far back do you see silver going?

Thx.

 

[d-lod]

d-lod,

Can you give us a ballpark projection as to what we'll see in the coming weeks and months? I honestly thought the pullback in the last 2 weeks would be deeper and was going to stock up if silver hit $32/oz. It never did.
Do you think this run up will reverse once QE3 is announced and how far back do you see silver going?

Thx.

Your answer Jodster is mentioned in this thread.

It took 8 months to correct 60% of total price and 74% of price rise.

This is correction and will be advancing as per past patterns.

CATCH 22

Buyer will be happy as eventually she is rising to make a big B, while non buyer will have great opportunity to buy at lower rates. It is win win for both.

Hey Jodster

I understand your challenges without charts, but the technique that I follow is Elliot wave and it is mostly all about wave counts, so I haven't bothered myself with learning the uploading part.

As I had mentioned that wave C will be deeper than wave,( as in this thread it was mentioned in month of may that )the wave C may extend upto 22.6.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Trendsman/jun272011.html

 

[Thornapple]

What happens if the US credit rating goes from AAA to AA in a downgrade? Interest rates go up and commodities and stock markets will get hit big time. Commodities going down along with paper silver in the stock market dragging it down will cause another dump in silver no? That would be my thought on a good buying time.

 

[Uglytruth]

I was thinking they raise the debt limit or default, PM's go up, then they come to some sort of solution & then PM's tank, by fall they announce QE3 thru QE99 and it's a rocket ride as the currency collapses & we become Zimbabwe / Argentina. Might get one last change to get in.

Would love to hear any other ideas out there.

 

[Artificial Sheep]

I was thinking they raise the debt limit or default, PM's go up, then they come to some sort of solution & then PM's tank, by fall they announce QE3 thru QE99 and it's a rocket ride as the currency collapses & we become Zimbabwe / Argentina. Might get one last change to get in.

Would love to hear any other ideas out there.

We are not Zimbabwe / Argentina. We are printing DEBT!!! not money. Failing to raise the DEBT ceiling will cause defaults and shrink the supply of available money/debt. We could also QE to infinity and still have deflation. Don't see how everyone thinks this equals Zimbabwe / Argentina style hyperinflation.

 

[prophet]

We are not Zimbabwe / Argentina. We are printing DEBT!!! not money. Failing to raise the DEBT ceiling will cause defaults and shrink the supply of available money/debt. We could also QE to infinity and still have deflation. Don't see how everyone thinks this equals Zimbabwe / Argentina style hyperinflation.

Same Difference?