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Silver next upswing

d-lod

dawn
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The manipulators got people in trouble. The fundamentals never changed.
Its not manipulation it is our greed, if we the general public, refuses to play paper money whom they will play this game with?

So don't talk about manipulator alone but it is us and our greed. It take two hand to clap isn't it?:grin10:
 

bemac

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How does increasing the supply of a commodity push prices up?
Paper made it convenient to speculate, and the Fed created the liquidity to speculate with, and with QE and ZIRP, they created the motivation to speculate. Not the whole story, but that's the gist of it. IMO, it was a paper gold bubble. If you think about it, the bigger picture, it makes sense it would happen. You should be glad the paper bubble popped, that's necessary for the physical bubble to begin. IMHO.
 

bemac

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Its not manipulation it is our greed, if we the general public, refuses to play paper money whom they will play this game with?

So don't talk about manipulator alone but it is us and our greed. It take two hand to clap isn't it?:grin10:
It's not so much greed, but more so, fear, caused by the Fed. The Fed says get out of dollars, we're going to devalue it, get somewhere else. So people scrambled into all kinds of things.
 

d-lod

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It's not so much greed, but more so, fear, caused by the Fed. The Fed says get out of dollars, we're going to devalue it, get somewhere else. So people scrambled into all kinds of things.
Bemac

Thanks for contradictory view,

but for me it is same and equivalent to debate of, whether the glass is half filled or half empty. Fear is antithesis of greed, either its fear of fed, or greed to preserve,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,same for me.............just take action, either drink the water or throw it.

ok so coming back to silver technical.........

Unless 18.71 is crossed on downside, silver will reach 21.75 / 23.65$
 

bemac

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Bemac

Thanks for contradictory view,

but for me it is same and equivalent to debate of, whether the glass is half filled or half empty. Fear is antithesis of greed, either its fear of fed, or greed to preserve,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,same for me.............just take action, either drink the water or throw it.

ok so coming back to silver technical.........

Unless 18.71 is crossed on downside, silver will reach 21.75 / 23.65$
Fear, greed, if Mises and Hayek were here, they'd call it something else. Malinvestment. Yeah, there's some fear, some greed, but the bottom line is the Fed is the cause. They are the motivator, with ZIRP and QE, they are putting a fire under the seats of dollar holders.
 

Anakin

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As far as I've been able to tell, the latest round of sanctions against Iran bans gold transactions but not silver transactions. This could be a new source of demand and perhaps explain some of the Indian imports.
 
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As far as I've been able to tell, the latest round of sanctions against Iran bans gold transactions but not silver transactions. This could be a new source of demand and perhaps explain some of the Indian imports.
Dream on...
 

d-lod

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As far as I've been able to tell, the latest round of sanctions against Iran bans gold transactions but not silver transactions. This could be a new source of demand and perhaps explain some of the Indian imports.
Next step would be bartering.
 

d-lod

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http://www.sprottgroup.com/thoughts/articles/silver%E2%80%A6-light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel/


The train to China has picked up momentum..................


In the COMEX futures exchange, the “Commercials” category of traders, made up of large banks, has traditionally held significantly large “short” positions – which means that the banks are either hedging an existing silver position or betting that silver will depreciate. The recent COMEX disclosures have revealed a staggering drop in the “Commercials” outstanding short positions, however – representing a decrease from 259 million ounces in February 2013 to 20 million ounces as of the last Commitment of Traders (“COT”) report released June 25th.1 This represents a significant change in the positioning of the silver futures market, and also suggests that previously ‘short’ participants have exited the “short silver” trade altogether. This drop actually represents the cumulative purchase of approximately 240 million ounces of ‘long’ silver contracts to cover the previously mentioned short positions, so despite silver’s price decline, the silver futures market has actually seen an abundance of buying.

Unfortunately, the COT and Bank Participation Reports don’t name the largest holders of futures contracts, but it has been alleged that one of the largest commercial ‘short’ contract holders is JP Morgan. JP Morgan has long been questioned by silver investors who suspect that the bank may be manipulating the price of silver for its own benefit. This speculation has also been fueled by the fact that JP Morgan acts as the physical custodian for the largest silver ETF, the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), which has just over $6 billion in underlying assets.
 

d-lod

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http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/past-week-gold-8




In our view, the ongoing recovery in America’s housing market is a big tail-wind for the world’s largest economy and it may provide the necessary impetus for a sustainable advance on Wall Street. In fact, as American property prices continue to appreciate, the number of households with negative equity will diminish and unleash a powerful ‘wealth effect’. When American homeowners breathe a sigh of relief, they will undoubtedly open their wallets and increase their discretionary spending.

Bearing in mind the ongoing improvement in America’s property market, we remain optimistic about the prospects of Wall Street. In our view, if the housing recovery plays out, American businesses will prosper and become more valuable; thereby pushing up their corresponding stock prices. Moreover, we suspect that the laggards of the previous decade (biotechnology, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, financials and healthcare) will continue to outperform the broad market. Conversely, we believe that the cyclical sectors such as commodities and industrials; as well as precious metals miners will continue to disappoint investors.

Given our expectations, we have allocated our equity and fund portfolios to the strongest sectors and geographical areas. Short-term volatility notwithstanding, we remain confident that our holdings will produce good growth over the following months.
USD UP - METAL DOWN, US UP - CHINA DOWN:thumbs_down:
 

d-lod

dawn
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Ok so we are going to enjoy short term rise at-least, even if Puru Saxena is right.


OTHER USES OF SILVER:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/changes-silver-part-3-so-who-buying

Ethylene oxide (EO) is used in the production of antifreeze, polyester, heat transfer liquids, gas dehydration, and solvents. It is also used in cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, lubricants, paint solvents, soaps, detergents, gas purification, emulsifiers and dispersants. Because of the wonderful properties of this reactive chemical, its growth has benefited the silver market as well. Because the precious metal is used as a catalyst in EO production.

Some 90% of silver's total catalyst demand comes from EO production. The EO market has enjoyed a 30-year continued growth cycle, according to consultancy Metals Focus Ltd. In 2002 it consumed 100 million ounces of silver, and it is projected by 2017 to reach 225 million ounces per annum. This rivals the historical high of the photographic industry. However, the EO market will not continue to grow at this pace. Because consumers are able to recover the silver from the catalyst. This means that at some point its demand will stabilize and perhaps decrease.

By geographical area, the United States is the largest consumer of silver. It is also the largest consumer of silver jewelry. Over the last couple of years demand to buy silver as jewelry has remained strong, as gold remained at high prices, leading consumers to substitute. But now, with the recent decline in the gold price, there's good reason to think silver will have a bigger struggle to keep its share of the market.

What of that other major consumer of silver – investment? This is not a primary user. We are talking about the investor, who can substitute at will. As of this writing, the SLV (which is the call sign for the largest exchange-traded silver trust fund or ETF) is holding 320 million ounces of silver. This number represents 31% of annual world silver supply using 2012's statistics.

What are the concerns then for an investor? What happens if the silver comes back into the market that is in the hands of investors? What happens if the price goes down? Finally what happens if the price goes up?

The funny thing with silver is that when the price goes down demand from the industrial sector and jewelry sector will rise and it will be consumed. It may take some time but it will happen. At the same time if the price is low then there will be less mining because of profitability. Eventually the fundamentals will drive the price higher.

If the price makes new highs we usually see large liquidations of metal either from scrap recovery or investors. This will force market prices to correct to a level that will sustain the available material. Of course if silver were to be demanded as forms of currency, then all bets are off. The price of silver would then reach unknown heights.
 
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d-lod

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I'm thinking we'll see a bit of a dip as Expiry approaches in a couple of weeks, but will keep an eye on that 25.5.
SB

Silver did disappoint us in formation of wave 1,it rise from 18.20 to 20.60, arise of 2.40 only, which retraced back to 19.17.

Wave 1 = 2.40 (18.20 - 20.60)
Wave 2 = 1.43 (20.60 - 19.17)
Wave 3 = 2.40 / 3.84 / 4.80 / 6.24 (19.17 - 21.57) / (19.17 - 23.01) / (19.17 - 23.97) /(19.17 - 25.41)



21.57 / 23.01 / 23.97 / 25.41


RIGHT NOW 5TH MINUTE WAVE IS YET TO BE FORMED, SO THAT WOULD GIVE US FINAL FIGURE.
 

d-lod

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SB

Silver did disappoint us in formation of wave 1,it rise from 18.20 to 20.60, arise of 2.40 only, which retraced back to 19.17.

Wave 1 = 2.40 (18.20 - 20.60)
Wave 2 = 1.43 (20.60 - 19.17)
Wave 3 = 2.40 / 3.84 / 4.80 / 6.24 (19.17 - 21.57) / (19.17 - 23.01) / (19.17 - 23.97) /(19.17 - 25.41)



21.57 / 23.01 / 23.97 / 25.41


RIGHT NOW 5TH MINUTE WAVE IS YET TO BE FORMED, SO THAT WOULD GIVE US FINAL FIGURE.


We have all ready crossed two level, and some more.
I was confident that the first thirst of impulsive wave should be a powerful one if it was an impulsive wave.
 

d-lod

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Like I said. 19 means nothing.

Just use rough analogy

Silver prices increased from $ 4 to $ 21+ that is more than five times and than it increased from $ 8+ to $ 49+ that is more than six times, while it retraced to $ 8+, that is twice the price of bottom, if we go by that than this time it should retrace upto 18+, as that is 2 and 1/2 time of $ 8+.

Ihslancers3270


I win



You are persistent ain't you!

Your style is, TOP to TOP and my style is to seek mediatry TOP too.

For me 19.46 was top of first wave from bottom of 8+

If it goes below 18 than you win and if it stays within it than I win, is that ok
 

pimples

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close enough for govt work I hope....we thought $20 but maybe it was $18 .....now its 18 times 5 right?....$90? but sell at $75? hard to view anything in this market. bond yield over about 4.5% and the budget would be completely consumed with the interest on the existing us debt....what would that do to pos...lol....I can dream.
 

d-lod

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close enough for govt work I hope....we thought $20 but maybe it was $18 .....now its 18 times 5 right?....$90? but sell at $75? hard to view anything in this market. bond yield over about 4.5% and the budget would be completely consumed with the interest on the existing us debt....what would that do to pos...lol....I can dream.
pimples

it should be seven times 18, because first top was at 21+ = 5X of 4, second top at 49+ = 6X of 8, and now it should be 126 = 7X of 18.


:beerglass::beerglass::beerglass: 126..........................
 

pimples

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pimples

it should be seven times 18, because first top was at 21+ = 5X of 4, second top at 49+ = 6X of 8, and now it should be 126 = 7X of 18.


:beerglass::beerglass::beerglass: 126..........................
ok good, sign me up......:beerglass:
 

southfork

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pimples

it should be seven times 18, because first top was at 21+ = 5X of 4, second top at 49+ = 6X of 8, and now it should be 126 = 7X of 18.


:beerglass::beerglass::beerglass: 126..........................
Love the math, what's your time frame I want to back up the bus one last time.
 

d-lod

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Love the math, what's your time frame I want to back up the bus one last time.
SF


It should be 21/2 to three years.

I am good at math, but bad at time calculation, I have once predicted that metal will top after August, and here we are at beginning of III of Major THREE.

2002 - 2009 - a journey from 4 to 21 to 08. 7 years
2009 - 2013 - a journey from 8 to 49 to 18. 4 years
2013 - 2015/16-a journey from 18 to 126 to 38 2 1/2 year:cool05:
 

d-lod

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SB

Silver did disappoint us in formation of wave 1,it rise from 18.20 to 20.60, arise of 2.40 only, which retraced back to 19.17.

Wave 1 = 2.40 (18.20 - 20.60)
Wave 2 = 1.43 (20.60 - 19.17)
Wave 3 = 2.40 / 3.84 / 4.80 / 6.24 (19.17 - 21.57) / (19.17 - 23.01) / (19.17 - 23.97) /(19.17 - 25.41)



21.57 / 23.01 / 23.97 / 25.41


RIGHT NOW 5TH MINUTE WAVE IS YET TO BE FORMED, SO THAT WOULD GIVE US FINAL FIGURE.
How far is the target now? and if Syria will help than will see more extension.
 

southfork

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How far is the target now? and if Syria will help than will see more extension.

Quote Originally Posted by d-lod View Post

SB

Silver did disappoint us in formation of wave 1,it rise from 18.20 to 20.60, arise of 2.40 only, which retraced back to 19.17.

Wave 1 = 2.40 (18.20 - 20.60)
Wave 2 = 1.43 (20.60 - 19.17)
Wave 3 = 2.40 / 3.84 / 4.80 / 6.24 (19.17 - 21.57) / (19.17 - 23.01) / (19.17 - 23.97) /(19.17 - 25.41)



21.57 / 23.01 / 23.97 / 25.41

RIGHT NOW 5TH MINUTE WAVE IS YET TO BE FORMED, SO THAT WOULD GIVE US FINAL FIGURE.
How far is the target now? and if Syria will help than will see more extension.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
No doubt Syria along with rising oil and gas prices are part of the equation, I suspect silver may hit 25.41 today or tomorrow at latest, where does that put us.
 

d-lod

dawn
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Quote Originally Posted by d-lod View Post

21.57 / 23.01 / 23.97 / 25.41

RIGHT NOW 5TH MINUTE WAVE IS YET TO BE FORMED, SO THAT WOULD GIVE US FINAL FIGURE.
How far is the target now? and if Syria will help than will see more extension.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
No doubt Syria along with rising oil and gas prices are part of the equation, I suspect silver may hit 25.41 today or tomorrow at latest, where does that put us.

Sorry was out of town SF

the fifth wave finished at 25.12 and the probable correction targets are 23.70 / 22.85
 

silverblood

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The result on the right side of the equation is the absolute value of the arithmetic expression on the left, but I don't know what it means. I'm guessing if I read the thread from the beginning, it will become more clear. Could you explain generally what is being displayed, or point me to something that would shed some light?
 

d-lod

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The result on the right side of the equation is the absolute value of the arithmetic expression on the left, but I don't know what it means. I'm guessing if I read the thread from the beginning, it will become more clear. Could you explain generally what is being displayed, or point me to something that would shed some light?
Bravo BRO SB


It is rough sketch of silver moves by a humble analyst, for next 2 and 1/2 year

The final will be painted by helicopter, banks, gata, govt of world, and above all........US that means not united state but US the investors of physical metal
 

jelly

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I will bite. I'm not arguing that you are wrong, but rather I have a question.
Wouldn't a fall from 86 to 26 be too severe of a correction, especially if you expect this all to happen roughly in the next 2 1/2 years? I would imagine a fall from $86 to $50 in a giant move to $126 would be possible in a 2 1/2 year timeframe. But I see a correction from $86 to $26 to be so severe that it would require several years to work through, much like what we are experiencing now.

Or rather, are you expecting the next move over the next 2 1/2 years to take us to $86, and then a correction to $26, and several more years before we work to $126?

Thanks,
Jelly
 

d-lod

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I will bite. I'm not arguing that you are wrong, but rather I have a question.
Wouldn't a fall from 86 to 26 be too severe of a correction, especially if you expect this all to happen roughly in the next 2 1/2 years? I would imagine a fall from $86 to $50 in a giant move to $126 would be possible in a 2 1/2 year timeframe. But I see a correction from $86 to $26 to be so severe that it would require several years to work through, much like what we are experiencing now.

Or rather, are you expecting the next move over the next 2 1/2 years to take us to $86, and then a correction to $26, and several more years before we work to $126?

Thanks,
Jelly
In reality that is what should have happened Jelly.

Regardless of investor's psychology and scarcity of PM, silver had corrected from 49 - 18 and it was two dollar above double of earlier bottom, that is 8(16+2). Fund management when sell million ounce, the price get corrected by 5 dollar and they gain more by it. So silver investor is victimized than gold investor
 

d-lod

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