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Silver next upswing

silverblood

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d-lod, thanks for posting that. I'm guessing that forecast data was published in early 2013. Every one of the forecasters missed the mark for Au and Ag in 2013. Both metals have been trading well below the low end of each forecaster's predicted range. Whatever it was that happened in April and in June was clearly on no one's radar.
 

d-lod

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d-lod, thanks for posting that. I'm guessing that forecast data was published in early 2013. Every one of the forecasters missed the mark for Au and Ag in 2013. Both metals have been trading well below the low end of each forecaster's predicted range. Whatever it was that happened in April and in June was clearly on no one's radar.

IN PAST THEY WERE VERY SUCCESSFUL IN FORECASTING RIGHT tops and bottoms.

All of you agree that breaking 1525 support and 26 for silver is the MR. US govt. desperation to get back German and their own gold back / also can be translated into MANIPULATION / PAPER MONEY
 

d-lod

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http://www.silverseek.com/article/silver-4-cycles-12-years-12602

Crash Lows: 11/23/2001, 5/7/2004, 6/16/2006, 10/24/2008, 7/5/2013

Launch Lows: 3/21/2002, 8/26/2005, 8/17/2007, 2/5/2010

Breakouts: 5/2/2003, 10/14/2005, 9/21/2007, 4/16/2010

Highs: 4/2/2004, 5/12/2006, 3/14/2008, 4/29/2011

Since the bottom in November 2001 at a weekly close of $4.03, silver has had four launch lows, breakouts, highs, and crash lows. We await the next launch low, subsequent breakout and a new high in the 5th cycle.

Based on the chart, the high in April 2011 was quite high, the subsequent low in July 2013 was an unusually deep correction and substantially delayed compared to previous cycles. I interpret this extended and deep low as a reaction to the huge rally from about $18 in mid-2010 to nearly $50 in April 2011. High Frequency Trading and massive intervention since the crash of 2008 have pushed the prices for gold and silver much higher and much lower than in previous cycles. They have also made the timing projections less reliable, but certain parallels are clear.

The last four cycles from crash low to high have taken from 1.75 to 2.5 years. That suggests an upcoming high sometime in 2015 - 2016. The last four cycles from crash low to launch low have taken 1.0 to 1.3 years. That suggests an upcoming launch low sometime in 2014. Following the launch lows, highs occurred approximately 0.5 to 1.2 years later. That suggests a high sometime in 2015 or 2016. We will wait and see.

But what if the market has fundamentally changed and the April 2011 high near $50 was a long term top that might not be repeated for another decade or so? I doubt it, but reputable forecasters such as Harry Dent believe that gold will drop to about $750 during the long term commodity bear market that he sees this decade. To address the possibility, consider this table:



We could add many more rows to this table, but they would tell essentially the same story: increasing debt, increasing money supply, weaker economy, and QE-forever that is necessary to enable government deficit spending. We don’t foresee declining gold and silver prices unless we fall into a deflationary collapse. The Fed has made it clear – no deflation! The US congress and the President have made it clear; they want to spend, spend, spend! Accidents do happen, but “Don’t Fight The Fed.” Expect money printing, inflation, increased debt, and higher prices.

CONCLUSIONS:

Since 2001 the silver and gold markets have gone up substantially as a reaction to the 20 year precious metals bear market from 1980 – 2000, massive increases in military spending, weakening global economies that REQUIRE Quantitative Easing to avoid deflation, the rise of competing currencies that weaken the dollar’s trading status, excessive debts in Europe, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, and so much more.

We should also learn from the past 12 years of silver cycles: a high, crash low, launch low, and breakout, will repeat until the global monetary system fundamentally changes from unbacked debt based paper money and returns to some form of a gold backed currency, whether it is the dollar, an IMF currency, or another hybrid currency.

Unless the world jumps off a cliff into a deflationary collapse that fundamentally changes our world, we should expect more government expenses, more QE, increasing debt, higher consumer prices, more expensive wars, and higher precious metals prices. We should expect an upcoming launch low, breakout, and high in the silver (and gold) market. The “gravy train” of government expenditures must continue rolling – powerful vested interests are everywhere and cannot be ignored – and few, if any, government programs will be reduced unless such reductions are forced by absolute necessity.


hmmmhmmhm..............2014 low and top in 2015 / 16

Ihslancers..............that's written with your help for sure
 

d-lod

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http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1382364540.php



This week we got a major clue when the US dollar finally finished its third backtest to the bottom rail of the 11 point diamond top. It’s possible that gold and US dollar can trade in the same direction for awhile but I don’t think that will be the case longer term. So lets look at some charts for the US dollar first as that’s where the biggest clues lie.

A diamond is generally consider a bearish topping pattern but from my experience they can go either way. I’ve shown you some beautiful diamond consolidation patterns that worked out very well. It’s the same with the rising and falling wedges. Whichever way they breakout will be the direction of the next move. It just so happens that our 11 point diamond pattern on the US dollar has broken down and out of the pattern. If the reversal point at #10 held and the price action rallied back up and through the top rail it would have been a consolidation pattern but that is not the case. After a month or so of backtesting the bottom rail of the diamond pattern it now looks like the move down on Thursday maybe starting the impulse leg lower.
 

d-lod

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failure failure and more failure...........................

prediction have failed and so many of them


http://www.silverseek.com/article/silver-miner-suspends-sales-35-production-due-low-prices-13710

Lastly, investors need to be prepared for the time that acquiring physical gold and silver will be virtually impossible. It seems as if (and according to the speculation of many in the precious metal industry) the rise in the price or value of gold and silver will not occur as it did from 2009 to 2011.

This time around, the values of the precious metals will probably skyrocket virtually overnight… thus creating a huge panic for the public to FINALLY GET IT. Unfortunately, it will be too late as physical metal will be in very short supply. Which is why I believe, some of the mining stocks will be the NEXT BEST THING to own.


this time lets not comment any further with rocket picture...........let the graph rocket
 

crushmymugshot112

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I have to scratch to find any. I know a lot have been shipped overseas to Europe, which says something about what THEY think about the euro's future. These coin's disappearance points to strong demand for gold.
 

d-lod

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Last but not least, the price of energy is also coming under pressure and sellers are firmly in control of this market. Turning to specifics, it is notable that the price of crude has declined to a 52-week low and it is currently trading beneath the key moving averages. Elsewhere, the price of natural gas has also sliced through the key moving averages and the price of uranium is at a multi-year low.

Given the fact that the prices of various commodities remain in a primary downtrend, the related stocks are also struggling and this is not the time to be exposed to these securities.

Although the energy stocks performed well up until the summer months, the Oil Index (XOI) has broken down badly and it is now trading below the 200-day moving average. Moreover, the oil services and pipeline stocks have now also joined the downtrend, so our readers should consider liquidating their positions in this sector.

In summary, commodities are passing through a lean patch and the primary downtrend is likely to persist for several years. Therefore, we currently have no positions in the physical commodities or the related stocks.


http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1413555480.php



PURU was the first to announce, quitting metals
 

d-lod

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Silver price history for 200 years


1561122311822.png
 

d-lod

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1561122206063-png.134246




To even untrained eyes the difference between gold and silver chart is inevitable. Silver has only finished cycle 1. ( Early Monday morning, silver prices surged 8% to $49.82 an ounce. That was just shy of the $50.35-an-ounce intraday record hit in January 1980, but higher than the all-time high closing price of $48.70 per ounce set 31 years ago.Apr 25, 2011 ). It means, that silver's high in 2011 is just part of correction, rather than cycle III. gold top was $850 in 1980 and $1920 in 2011. while silver top in both year was just around 50$

Please refer "Gold in III wave" for gold analysis.
 

savvydon

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1561122206063-png.134246




To even untrained eyes the difference between gold and silver chart is inevitable. Silver has only finished cycle 1. ( Early Monday morning, silver prices surged 8% to $49.82 an ounce. That was just shy of the $50.35-an-ounce intraday record hit in January 1980, but higher than the all-time high closing price of $48.70 per ounce set 31 years ago.Apr 25, 2011 ). It means, that silver's high in 2011 is just part of correction, rather than cycle III. gold top was $850 in 1980 and $1920 in 2011. while silver top in both year was just around 50$

Please refer "Gold in III wave" for gold analysis.
So, does this mean you think that silver will not run with gold on this next climb?
 

savvydon

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16.71 / 18.16 / 19.13
Here in the short term silver continues to lag, as the GSR now hovers just below 92. I think when TPTB begin to lose their iron clad grasp on the suppressed price of silver that we will see it move through these levels fairly rapidly.
 

d-lod

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Here in the short term silver continues to lag, as the GSR now hovers just below 92. I think when TPTB begin to lose their iron clad grasp on the suppressed price of silver that we will see it move through these levels fairly rapidly.



savvydon ................ always try to look things in perceptiveness.

Gold rose from 254 - 1920 = 1666 = 6.55 times
Silver..................... 04 - 49 = 45 = 11.25 times

SHOULD YOU HAVE PATIENCE FOR nearly double profit? so what is the cost of your three month patience?
 
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d-lod

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Here in the short term silver continues to lag, as the GSR now hovers just below 92. I think when TPTB begin to lose their iron clad grasp on the suppressed price of silver that we will see it move through these levels fairly rapidly.

first will reach 16.06 minimum, but may be more
 

savvydon

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savvydon ................ always try to look things in perceptiveness.

Gold rose from 254 - 1920 = 1666 = 6.55 times
Silver..................... 04 - 49 = 45 = 11.25 times

SHOULD YOU HAVE PATIENCE FOR nearly double profit? so what is the cost of your three month patience?
I’m with you d-lod. I have been waiting patiently for a long time, and will continue to do so, as long as is necessary or as long as I am able, whichever comes first.
 

d-lod

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I’m with you d-lod. I have been waiting patiently for a long time, and will continue to do so, as long as is necessary or as long as I am able, whichever comes first.

The volume of silver against its value when compared to gold is the detrimental factor. Moneyed people don't like volumes. but it will outgrow gold, as and when it will start first leg, remembered what i wrote, it has not started its journey in 2011.
 

Uglytruth

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What are your thoughts on a "reasonable" G to S ratio that will hold long term?
 

d-lod

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1561586367146.png


In first minute (i) the rise was from 13.89 - 14.55 = .66 cents (first arrow)
In third minute (i) the rise is from 14.29 - 15.55 = 1.26 (second arrow)



1561586788495.png
 

d-lod

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So far this move in silver is looking as impressive as last months move was in gold. It will be interesting to see where we are at the end of the week.


I had counted that target in consideration of 1.6 times first wave of 1.26, but it may consolidate too.
 
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d-lod

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1563719922585.png




Look at the beauty of silver correction............if it rise minimum 1.6 time than the target is ?????????????????????

MACD on short and long value is ready to bounce.

1563720417387.png
 

Uglytruth

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Fed fireworks next week

What is the guess? 1/4 point?
Why would the ds cut rates? They are timed to destroy the economy before the election.
 

savvydon

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What is the guess? 1/4 point?
Why would the ds cut rates? They are timed to destroy the economy before the election.
My guess is less educated than your average pundit. Regardless, in any of the major scenarios an argument can be made that whatever is being done shines a light on the general poor health of the economy.
 

Pyramid

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Bearish article on silbur FWIW:

Can Silver Lead PMs Higher Still?
Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Thursday July 25, 2019 15:19
Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk
Featuring views and opinions written by market professionals, not staff journalists.

It’s not true that yesterday’s session in precious metals was uneventful. While gold and mining stocks didn’t do much, silver moved a bit above its previous high, closing at a fresh 2019 high. Sounds pretty remarkable, doesn’t it? In today’s analysis, we’ll put silver’s breakout into proper perspective and examine if the white metal has much more room to run.

Let’s dive in to the silver chart. The situation there seems to have changed - but is it really the case?

radomski_0725.png


There is actually much more to the silver story than just a breakout above the recent highs. In fact, the breakout itself is not that important. What is important, is the resistance that was just reached and how it relates to what we saw in the past.

By “resistance” we actually mean two resistance levels. One is created based on the line that’s parallel to the rising support line created by connecting the 2018 and 2019 bottoms. Copying this line and moving it higher so that it touches the early 2019 high creates the upper border of the rising trend channel. This is silver’s second move higher and the “C” part of a rising ABC correction pattern (the late-2018 – early-2019 rally was the “A” part of the move and the subsequent decline was “B”). The ABC corrections (a.k.a. zigzags) are relatively common corrective patterns that don’t change the preceding trend. In this case, the trend was down.

We can speak of the big downtrend that started in 2011, or we can speak of the more medium-term downtrend that started in 2016 – either way, the corrective ABC pattern seems to have already run its course as silver moved to the upper border of the trend channel.

There is also additional reason for silver to turn south from the current price levels that’s even more important. Taking the 2016 top as the starting price for the decline and using the 2018 bottom as the final (so far) bottom, we get $16.70 as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. This is a good reason on its own for silver to turn around, especially if we also consider the fact that silver moved to the above-mentioned upper border of the trade channel.

The extremely bearish outlook comes from something else, though. There are many things that emphasize that the outlook is extremely bearish (such as the recent volume readings in silver and silver stocks), but with regard to the price level that was reached yesterday, there is one more very important detail that most investors will likely miss.

The entire 2016 – now situation and the 2011 – late-2012 price movement are very similar.

In both cases there were actually four bottoms at very similar price levels that preceded the final upswing and the first one of them was very sharp (late 2011 and mid-2017). The timing between the following bottoms was different, but there are two major similarities that just can’t be ignored or left unmentioned.

The first thing is that all major tops were lower than the previous ones. The only outlier is the early-2019 top, which – as it turned out – wasn’t the final top for the rally, so overall it seems that the analogy remains intact.

The second thing is that the top (the one in early 2012) that preceded the final top of the consolidation is extremely similar to the mid-2018 one and this an extremely useful roadmap sign that tells us where silver is in light of the entire analogy.

The key thing is that the final pre-slide (late-2012) top formed at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level based on the preceding decline. The early 2012 top formed slightly below the 50% retracement (intraday high) and the weekly close was a bit below the 38.2% retracement. The mid-2018 top (analogous to the late-2012 one) also formed a bit below the 50% retracement and the weekly close of that top was a bit below the 38.2% retracement.

This means that if the analogy remains intact, silver should top at the 38.2% retracement right now, which is at $16.70. And what was silver’s high yesterday? $16.68 – almost exactly the level of the retracement. This price level is today’s pre-market high based on finance.yahoo.com and stooq.com prices.

The top that was just reached is likely much more important than it seems based on just today’s intraday chart.

Summary
Summing up, these are not pleasant times for anyone who refuses to jump on the bullish bandwagon just because prices are moving higher, but what’s profitable is rarely the thing that feels good initially. The relative strength in the silver market is a factor that’s beyond bearish, while the strength in gold stocks appears just as misleading as their weakness was back in early 2016. Gold has just invalidated its breakout above the previous highs, the late-2013 highs, and the upper border of the pennant pattern, which is a very strong bearish sign. The price levels that were just reached in silver imply that the top is in.

https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-07-25/Can-Silver-Lead-PMs-Higher-Still.html
 

Goldhedge

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It's been pointed out that the banks are now buyers of gold, yet everyone says Silver to da Moon.

Why aren't the banks buying silver?