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Silver next upswing
- Thread starter d-lod
- Start date
Jodster
you are right about silver being in consolidation territory. Any price between 28.46 and 26. 03 (3 times support on daily) is narrow trading range. WHILE 29.84 and 23.38 is the larger consolidation limits.
So technically it is in consolidation phase. Personally I am looking forward to wave "C" completion at a bit lower level
you are right about silver being in consolidation territory. Any price between 28.46 and 26. 03 (3 times support on daily) is narrow trading range. WHILE 29.84 and 23.38 is the larger consolidation limits.
So technically it is in consolidation phase. Personally I am looking forward to wave "C" completion at a bit lower level
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Is Silver the Next Tesla?
Jeff Clark, Senior Analyst, GoldSilver.com
SEP 14, 2020
It’s no secret that one of the Nasdaq’s best performing stocks this year has been Tesla. Its meteoric rise, until recently, flashed dollar signs in the dreams of its investors.
Given silver’s historical volatility, a question dawned on me: could silver log a similar runaway price advance in the not-too-distant future?
It’s a fair question. Not only can silver be highly volatile, but potentially life-changing catalysts are staring us in the face. So let’s have a little fun and see if silver could have a comparable parabolic run…
The Core Reason for Silver’s Volatility
Long-time silver investors already know this, but the primary reason the silver price is so volatile is because it’s a teeny tiny market. It takes less cash coming in to impact its price than it does other assets, including gold.
And when we look at just the investment market for silver, it’s even smaller.
While the amount of silver that is refined into coins and bars fluctuates every year, only 6.15% of total above-ground holdings are estimated to be in investment form.
And yet investment demand has the biggest impact on its price, because other uses don’t fluctuate all that greatly and investment demand can. If demand for bullion products is low, the price historically has not moved much. If it’s high, the price tends to jump.
Last year 36.2 million ounces of silver went to coins and bars, below its long-term average, and the price rose a modest 15%. Investment demand has changed in a big way this year, and the spike sent silver on a relentless surge, rising 145% from its March low to August high.
And yet, Tesla stock has trounced silver this year. Here’s how it’s performed year-to-date, vs. silver.
Tesla stock rose as much as 468% at its peak last month, vs. silver’s advance of 60%. Both have since pulled back, but despite silver’s strong performance this year, Tesla has gained almost eight times more in price.
That’s reflected in the growth of their market capitalizations, too… using the figure of 3.512 billion ounces of above-ground investment silver (CPM Group’s estimate), you can see how silver’s “market cap” has grown this year as the price has risen (right bars). But Tesla’s market cap has exploded (left bars).
Even with the recent big pullback in its share price, Tesla’s market cap is 360% higher now than when the year began. That’s a huge jump for an individual stock in less than nine months.
And let’s not forget that this is ONE company… all above-ground investment silver (at $26) is currently one-quarter the value of Tesla.
This again highlights just how small this market is, and why it can be so volatile.
With that context, let’s get to the big question…
Is Silver the Next Tesla?
Yes.
How can I state that so confidently? For starters, because it’s already matched Tesla’s performance in the past. And exceeded it.
Here’s Tesla’s one-year gain—which covers its big spike this year—vs. silver’s gains during its two biggest bull markets (2008-2011, and 1979-1980).
Silver’s run from its 2008 low to 2011 high comes close to Tesla’s performance over the past year. But silver’s parabolic move from January 1970 to its peak in January 1980 exceeded Tesla’s run by 221 percentage points.
Yes, the tiny silver market, largely ignored by Wall Street, provided investors a greater return in 1979-1980 than Tesla has this year.
Will silver see another run that rivals Tesla’s performance? Or even exceed it?
To match Tesla’s 501% run, silver would have to rise to $160 (from Friday’s closing price of $26.71). Given the monetary crisis that’s still ahead, this is not far-fetched.
In fact, Mike Maloney calls $150 silver a no-brainer.
And while I don’t like to count my eggs before they hatch, Mike lays out a case for how silver could even reach as much as $700.
There are certainly no guarantees, and everyone has to make their own investment decisions, but I can tell you that Mike and I are investing heavily in silver because we believe it will be a direct beneficiary of the monetary fallout that at this point is inescapable. And if that fallout includes inflation, look out above.
So my answer is yes, silver will be the next Tesla.
https://goldsilver.com/blog/is-silver-the-next-tesla/
Jeff Clark, Senior Analyst, GoldSilver.com
SEP 14, 2020
It’s no secret that one of the Nasdaq’s best performing stocks this year has been Tesla. Its meteoric rise, until recently, flashed dollar signs in the dreams of its investors.
Given silver’s historical volatility, a question dawned on me: could silver log a similar runaway price advance in the not-too-distant future?
It’s a fair question. Not only can silver be highly volatile, but potentially life-changing catalysts are staring us in the face. So let’s have a little fun and see if silver could have a comparable parabolic run…
The Core Reason for Silver’s Volatility
Long-time silver investors already know this, but the primary reason the silver price is so volatile is because it’s a teeny tiny market. It takes less cash coming in to impact its price than it does other assets, including gold.
And when we look at just the investment market for silver, it’s even smaller.
While the amount of silver that is refined into coins and bars fluctuates every year, only 6.15% of total above-ground holdings are estimated to be in investment form.
And yet investment demand has the biggest impact on its price, because other uses don’t fluctuate all that greatly and investment demand can. If demand for bullion products is low, the price historically has not moved much. If it’s high, the price tends to jump.
Last year 36.2 million ounces of silver went to coins and bars, below its long-term average, and the price rose a modest 15%. Investment demand has changed in a big way this year, and the spike sent silver on a relentless surge, rising 145% from its March low to August high.
And yet, Tesla stock has trounced silver this year. Here’s how it’s performed year-to-date, vs. silver.
Tesla stock rose as much as 468% at its peak last month, vs. silver’s advance of 60%. Both have since pulled back, but despite silver’s strong performance this year, Tesla has gained almost eight times more in price.
That’s reflected in the growth of their market capitalizations, too… using the figure of 3.512 billion ounces of above-ground investment silver (CPM Group’s estimate), you can see how silver’s “market cap” has grown this year as the price has risen (right bars). But Tesla’s market cap has exploded (left bars).
Even with the recent big pullback in its share price, Tesla’s market cap is 360% higher now than when the year began. That’s a huge jump for an individual stock in less than nine months.
And let’s not forget that this is ONE company… all above-ground investment silver (at $26) is currently one-quarter the value of Tesla.
This again highlights just how small this market is, and why it can be so volatile.
With that context, let’s get to the big question…
Is Silver the Next Tesla?
Yes.
How can I state that so confidently? For starters, because it’s already matched Tesla’s performance in the past. And exceeded it.
Here’s Tesla’s one-year gain—which covers its big spike this year—vs. silver’s gains during its two biggest bull markets (2008-2011, and 1979-1980).
Silver’s run from its 2008 low to 2011 high comes close to Tesla’s performance over the past year. But silver’s parabolic move from January 1970 to its peak in January 1980 exceeded Tesla’s run by 221 percentage points.
Yes, the tiny silver market, largely ignored by Wall Street, provided investors a greater return in 1979-1980 than Tesla has this year.
Will silver see another run that rivals Tesla’s performance? Or even exceed it?
To match Tesla’s 501% run, silver would have to rise to $160 (from Friday’s closing price of $26.71). Given the monetary crisis that’s still ahead, this is not far-fetched.
In fact, Mike Maloney calls $150 silver a no-brainer.
And while I don’t like to count my eggs before they hatch, Mike lays out a case for how silver could even reach as much as $700.
There are certainly no guarantees, and everyone has to make their own investment decisions, but I can tell you that Mike and I are investing heavily in silver because we believe it will be a direct beneficiary of the monetary fallout that at this point is inescapable. And if that fallout includes inflation, look out above.
So my answer is yes, silver will be the next Tesla.
https://goldsilver.com/blog/is-silver-the-next-tesla/
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I have to say that with my two cents worth I fully agree with you. My thoughts are that if you want to trade the price movements of the metals paper silver/gold is the way to go because of its liquidity, easy valuation and lack of any logistical problems to the sale. I am also a firm believer in the adage "if you don't hold it you don't own it" which is fine for those of us with the thoughts of TSHTF situations such as a total currency collapse where the physical holdings would provide an insurance type of reserve in those situations. Trading based upon the price movements of the metal is, to me, a completely different ball game in my estimation. Each holding has its place in a well diversified set of asset holdings depending on ones individual goals.
I plan on never selling my physical holdings and it is my biggest hope that I, as well as you, do not live in a time when the physical holdings have to be liquidated to meet the daily needs of staying alive. I do however hold a few shares in mining companies that I have bought and sold in my lifetime. Trading on price movements is for paper the way I see it and hopefully none of us will see the day that we have to sell our physical holdings.
Believe it or not this is something my mother drilled into my head when I was growing up in the 60's and 70's. She obviously did not live in a time of anarchy where she had to liquidate her physical holdings for survival and was therefore able to pass her so called insurance holdings to her ancestors. I too, with any luck, will do the same with my holdings that will provide a similar insurance holding to my ancestors. Incidentally here are a couple of bars of my mother's silver holdings. Barbaric holdings of prior generations some might say but they have endured on and to this very day still provide the same qualities that they originally did when they were first purchased some 50 or so years ago.
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Let's see how much fear there is IF...RGB seat is filled before November 3rd, Trump is reelected, more upheaval in more cities, Hiden is elected and becomes ill BEFORE inauguration!, war between China and India...etc.
Some many scenarios but fear rules the day and that could/will push silver to $40 by years end.
YMMV
Some many scenarios but fear rules the day and that could/will push silver to $40 by years end.
YMMV