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Silver next upswing

d-lod

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You saw the projections for what they might be worth in May I presume? 23 then 28 if 34 or the 32 and change lows do not hold. Hey this is a bull market Gold and Silver go down more than you want but not enough to make you feel comfortable buying more ya know?
lhslancers3270;

The projection was based on new Wave B of 44.17. Right now silver will make upward move from 32ish as fourth wave and than final down which will give long awaited +ve divergence.
 

TomJerry

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TomJerry

I said 33.57 or 26.71

Now as 33.57 is broken the next level could be reached as correction floor, and than last.
Well I didn't think 33.57 would be breached. Since it has, I guess I'm holding off buying phyzz until 26.71. There's no way it dips below that floor? :confused:
 

d-lod

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dlod if this is a true ABC down your target above the 25 dollar level is very close. The first move down the A was around 17 bucks give or take. 25-30 is a good area to accumulate if you are long term bullish.
lhslancers3270

You are right if this is end of wave from 8-49 than the correction should also be that magnificent. The metal should not breach 21........ as it was the top of wave I and this wave cannot cross it, though silver is silver and has broken that rule too.
 

KnowNothing

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26.71 was broken.

Now what? :)
 

Jodster

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First Majestic won't drop spot below $35/oz. Have we hit the critical point where theoretical spot diverges from physical supply? Spot can be $16/oz but if there's no metal available at that price, then we still pay what the seller decides. :banghead:
 

d-lod

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First Majestic won't drop spot below $35/oz. Have we hit the critical point where theoretical spot diverges from physical supply? Spot can be $16/oz but if there's no metal available at that price, then we still pay what the seller decides. :banghead:
Jodster, that is called backwardation and you will find that, as Silver will dip further it will be more.
The premium will decide the upward thrust. After a week of this dip the premium will stabilize.
 

REO 54

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Commodities Drop as Silver Slumps on Europe.....


Commodities declined, led by silver and industrial metals, after U.S. home sales added to speculation of slowing growth, curbing raw-material demand.

The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index declined 0.6 percent to 595.61 by 3:45 p.m. in London. It slumped as much as 2.6 percent to the lowest since Dec. 1. Silver fell below $28 an ounce for the first time since February and copper dropped below $7,000 a ton for the first time in more than a year.

Purchases of new houses in the U.S. declined in August to a six-month low as the biggest drop in prices in two years failed to lure buyers away from less expensive distressed properties. European policy makers are facing mounting pressure to step up efforts to prevent their sovereign-debt crisis from further roiling the world’s financial markets and economy.

“The debt crisis is one thing, but you also have fears that the global economy is slowing down significantly. ” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, the head of rates, foreign exchange and commodities strategy at Danske Bank A/S in Copenhagen.

U.S. home sales dropped 2.3 percent to a 295,000 annual pace, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. The median estimate of 73 economists in a Bloomberg survey called for a drop to 293,000.

More to Drop
“The state of the global economy that we are seeing now is worse than what we had three to six months ago,” Dominic Schnider, global head of commodity research for UBS AG’s wealth- management unit, said today by phone in Singapore. He predicted benchmark commodity indexes will drop 10 to 15 percent more.

The S&P GSCI Spot Index ended last week down 21 percent from the almost three-year high in April, meeting the common definition of a bear market. The last time the index fell that much was in 2008 when the global economy sank into its worst slump since World War II. Earlier today, cash silver plunged as much as 16 percent to its lowest level since November and copper slumped as much as 7.6 percent, a seventh day of declines and the worst losing streak since December 2008.

Silver for immediate delivery slumped 8.2 percent to $28.59 an ounce, after earlier today touching $26.07. Gold fell 2 percent to $1,623.90, almost $300 below its record $1,921.15 an ounce on Sept. 6, after earlier today touching $1,532.72, the lowest level since July.

“A rising fear factor coupled with sinking confidence levels should be helping gold, but this isn’t happening because of overriding concerns about liquidity, European bank funding and margin calls amid a stronger U.S. dollar,” UBS AG analyst Edel Tully said in a report today. “For now, investors are only finding comfort in the relative safety of cash.”

Lead, Copper
Lead for three-month delivery dropped 2.7 to $1,901.75 a ton on the London Metal Exchange. Copper was down 3.5 percent at $7,100 a ton.

Crude oil for November dropped 1.5 percent to $78.67 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Money managers cut the combined net-long position across 18 futures and options by 20 percent in the week ended Sept. 20, the most since February 2010, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.

To contact the reporters on this story: Maria Kolesnikova in London at mkolesnikova@bloomberg.net; Chanyaporn Chanjaroen in Singapore at
 

d-lod

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ABC CORRECTION

Wave 1 ...............................................Wave 3

A = 21.34 - 15.97 = 05.49............A = 49.78 - 32.32 = 17.46
B = 15.97 - 19.46 = 03.49............B = 32.32 - 44.17 = 11.85
C = 19.46 - 08.41 = 11.05............C = 44.17 - 26.71 = 17.46 (A=C)
...............................................C = 44.17 - 26.71 = 17.46 (A=C)



9-19-2011 02:00 PM #108
d-lod

.
.
.
..............A = 49.78 - 32.32 = 17.46
............. B = 32.32 - 44.17 = 09.85
..............C = 44.17 - 10.65 = 33.52 (A x .6)
............................- 17.46 = 26.71 (A x 01)
............................- 28.11 = 16.06 (A x 1.6)......... dream come true
 

lightcycler

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ABC CORRECTION

Wave 1 ...............................................Wave 3

A = 21.34 - 15.97 = 05.49............A = 49.78 - 32.32 = 17.46
B = 15.97 - 19.46 = 03.49............B = 32.32 - 44.17 = 11.85
C = 19.46 - 08.41 = 11.05............C = 44.17 - 26.71 = 17.46 (A=C)
...............................................C = 44.17 - 26.71 = 17.46 (A=C)
I would bet my left one we have seen the bottom or very very close. Looking at the chart for Wave C there is a definate wave 1 and wave 2. Wave 3 down just finished in my opinion. Wave 4 in progress with Wave 5 down to finish Wave C. I think it is likely we get a double bottom with that. Well thats my opinion of where we stand. I think we see close to $100 in 2012. That will be a huge hurdle at that time.
 

TomJerry

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I would bet my left one we have seen the bottom or very very close. Looking at the chart for Wave C there is a definate wave 1 and wave 2. Wave 3 down just finished in my opinion. Wave 4 in progress with Wave 5 down to finish Wave C. I think it is likely we get a double bottom with that. Well thats my opinion of where we stand. I think we see close to $100 in 2012. That will be a huge hurdle at that time.
I hope you're right about wave 5 down finishing wave C. I missed buying the lows this morning and I'm still optimistic we see them again (or close).
 

d-lod

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I hope you're right about wave 5 down finishing wave C. I missed buying the lows this morning and I'm still optimistic we see them again (or close).

In any major correction the bottom is retested, and the wave three corrections are shallow, while this one was not, so lets just pray that again it will be retested. My own opinion is that gold has yet to bottom. Silver on daily chart has made a sharp doji that represent bottom is in, but there is so no positive divergence that leaves some silver lining for you TomJerry.
 

d-lod

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I would bet my left one we have seen the bottom or very very close. Looking at the chart for Wave C there is a definate wave 1 and wave 2. Wave 3 down just finished in my opinion. Wave 4 in progress with Wave 5 down to finish Wave C. I think it is likely we get a double bottom with that. Well thats my opinion of where we stand. I think we see close to $100 in 2012. That will be a huge hurdle at that time.

Lightcycler

You are right about bottom retest, and with option expiration, people will be getting rid of their longs so it may be right time for any remaing dip, if there is leftout people.

I will count the waves and post it later.


 

d-lod

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I would bet my left one we have seen the bottom or very very close. Looking at the chart for Wave C there is a definate wave 1 and wave 2. Wave 3 down just finished in my opinion. Wave 4 in progress with Wave 5 down to finish Wave C. I think it is likely we get a double bottom with that. Well thats my opinion of where we stand. I think we see close to $100 in 2012. That will be a huge hurdle at that time.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/maund/sep262011_silver.html


If we now look again at the latest version of this chart we can see how, having crashed the support at the lower boundary of the large top area on Friday, silver is now in freefall, and while there is some support in the $30 that could produce temporary relief, the magnitude of the decline on Thursday and Friday against the background of emerging deflationary forces strongly suggests that silver will soon crash this support and continue its freefall even lower - and there is no significant support below the $30 area until it gets to the $20 area. This therefore looks like the downside objective for this decline. Even if we are wrong on this and the decline stops in the $30 area, we will have plenty of time to unload our shorts, as with confidence shattered it won't be going back up again anytime soon - first a base area would have to develop to allow confidence time to recover.


We are now entering a deflationary bust phase that politicians have been trying to ringfence since 2008. Now they are outmatched and outflanked and totally out of options, which means that we should see - and it started last week - a broad based commodity and stockmarket crash, and therefore we should expect the worst with regards to silver. How far could it drop during this phase? - the long-term 6-year chart will help us to determine this.

He means deflationary commodity breakdown across all metals, as dollar index is increasing.
 

silverwood

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Kilauea, Hi
In any major correction the bottom is retested, and the wave three corrections are shallow, while this one was not, so lets just pray that again it will be retested. My own opinion is that gold has yet to bottom. Silver on daily chart has made a sharp doji that represent bottom is in, but there is so no positive divergence that leaves some silver lining for you TomJerry.
Hey d-lod, I am hoping that we get the retest which will confirm the bottom. I have to admit I have been patiently waiting for a buying opportunity like we experienced today, I am also very pissed off that it occurred while I was sleeping. I love hugh spikes down in silver as it enables me to buy my favorite coins at reasonable prices, that is why I am still angry over what happened today in silver:banghead:
 

d-lod

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Hey d-lod, I am hoping that we get the retest which will confirm the bottom. I have to admit I have been patiently waiting for a buying opportunity like we experienced today, I am also very pissed off that it occurred while I was sleeping. I love hugh spikes down in silver as it enables me to buy my favorite coins at reasonable prices, that is why I am still angry over what happened today in silver:banghead:
silverwood,

You are not alone to be angry, I am a Canadian living in Asia. I wanted to repurchase my sold metal, but USD was high and I got very less profit. The only technical that I am waiting to buy is positive divergence, where price will be low and MACD, MOMENTUM AND RSI will be giving positive indication.
 

d-lod

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.............
.
.
...............i = 44.17 - 38.72 = 05.45
..............ii = 38.72 - 43.34 = 04.62
.............iii = 43.34 = 26.05 = 17.29
............iv = 26.05 = 33.51 = 07.46
.............v = 33.51 = ?
 

d-lod

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.............
.
.
...............i = 44.17 - 38.72 = 05.45
..............ii = 38.72 - 43.34 = 04.62
.............iii = 43.34 = 26.05 = 17.29
............iv = 26.05 = 33.51 = 07.46
.............v = 33.51 = ?


The last wave count

...............i = 44.17 - 38.72 = 05.45
..............ii = 38.72 - 43.34 = 04.62
.............iii = 43.34 = 26.05 = 17.29
............iv = 26.05 = 33.51 = 07.46
.............v = 33.51 = 30.19 = 03.32
...........................= 27.70 = 05.45
...........................= 24.79 = 08.72

So will it be 30.19..............27.70.............24.79..........
.
 

Strawboss

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The last wave count

...............i = 44.17 - 38.72 = 05.45
..............ii = 38.72 - 43.34 = 04.62
.............iii = 43.34 = 26.05 = 17.29
............iv = 26.05 = 33.51 = 07.46
.............v = 33.51 = 30.19 = 03.32
...........................= 27.70 = 05.45
...........................= 24.79 = 08.72

So will it be 30.19..............27.70.............24.79..........
.
I am interested in learning how you calculate the potential targets for v - unless its a closely guarded secret or something.
 

lightcycler

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I am interested in learning how you calculate the potential targets for v - unless its a closely guarded secret or something.
http://stocata.org/ta_en/elliott7.html

Look down to Price target for Wave 5. So this was Wave 5=0.681X Wave 1 then Wave 5=Wave 1 then Wave 5=1.61 X Wave 1. Where Wave 1 was $5.45 in length.

It takes time to see the waves and get good. In the end it is a guide and not a science. I lost a lot of money figuring that one out. :)

Thanks for all the work on this dlod and not meaning to impose. Hope that helps.
 

d-lod

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I am interested in learning how you calculate the potential targets for v - unless its a closely guarded secret or something.
Strawboss,

it is not a close secret, but a well known theory based on EW. This impulse waves and corrective wave always unfold in the vicinity of .x 6, x1, x 1.6, x 2.6, x 3.6 etc

Even the corrective patterns are also well defined. I calculate EW and also look at major indicators. My main indicators are MACD with normal value and value of 4,9,3., momentum with 14 and 2, RSI 14 and 2. For turn around I look at higher value than 14. Knowledge and experiences are to be shared, and so I was waiting for question like yours to share my tools, so everyone is better equipped and do not loose money to big players.

This tools and my gut feeling helped me to pin down gold and silver top as well as secondary top.

d-lod
Quote Originally Posted by CiscoKid View Post
Is it "buy time" yet???

The wave A was 49.78 to 33.05 =16.73
wave B could be 33.05 to 37.04/39.38/41.37/43.36
This was posted on may 6 while the B wave completed on AUG 22-23 at 44.17 and london closing was 43.49.




The silver has mind of its own as far as its technical are concerned.
So far she has not reacted to gold's price rise. The bare fact of silver
is that it is chief by product of copper, gold and other industrial metal.
Those metals will be excavated, when industries are flourishing. The stock
market react six months in advance of future growth, if industries doesn't
need copper than less silver will be produced.

Right now the CMT also have changed their tunes for example Clive Maund - "C-leg convert" as per lhslancers3270 justify deeper correction in silver.
posted on AUG 09, when even Clive has changed his tune.

So technical comes correct 7 out of ten.

Lightcycler you have done good job second time so please feel free to post on this thread without being asked.
Ownership of knowledge is branded by sharing.
 

Strawboss

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I am interested in learning whether EW can be used for day trading - not just silver, but, in general. for example, I day trade AGQ and ZSL frequently along with MCP (basically anything with volatility). I would like to improve my entries/exits and am thinking what you are doing could benefit me in that regard.

If I am using a 1 minute chart, where would I begin?
 

d-lod

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I am interested in learning whether EW can be used for day trading - not just silver, but, in general. for example, I day trade AGQ and ZSL frequently along with MCP (basically anything with volatility). I would like to improve my entries/exits and am thinking what you are doing could benefit me in that regard.

If I am using a 1 minute chart, where would I begin?
Strawboss

It is equally great with day trading also. I have given Canadian Security exam of Technical Analysis. But depth of the analysis come with lot of failing and lot of trading.:biggrin:

ELLIOT WAVE can be learned from many resources one of them is

http://www.elliottwave.com/club/elliott-wave-principle/default.aspx?code=47574

They have free library.
and google.

Please feel free to ask all your query that way it will refresh my knowledge.
 

KnowNothing

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Having gone through the recent posts, so are we expecting another drop to the ~$25 range?

Is this a somewhat soon to occur predicament, or will it reach a certain top before it corrects again?
 

d-lod

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Having gone through the recent posts, so are we expecting another drop to the ~$25 range?

Is this a somewhat soon to occur predicament, or will it reach a certain top before it corrects again?
The last wave count

...............i = 44.17 - 38.72 = 05.45
..............ii = 38.72 - 43.34 = 04.62
.............iii = 43.34 = 26.05 = 17.29
............iv = 26.05 = 33.51 = 07.46
.............v = 33.51 = 30.19 = 03.32
...........................= 27.70 = 05.45
...........................= 24.79 = 08.72

So will it be 30.19..............27.70.............24.79........ ...

KnowNothing

As from last wave count you can see that, the bottom could be from 30.19 to 24.79 (even lower based on silver's history)
but I am sure that it should have +ve divergence on weekly chart for a guaranty of turnaround.
 

KnowNothing

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Interesting.

Just a litte ?

What do you mean by + divergence? That just a fancy way of saying "increase?" :redface:
 

southfork

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wish they would hurry the bottom, I have a coin show next weekend.
 

d-lod

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Interesting.

Just a litte ?

What do you mean by + divergence? That just a fancy way of saying "increase?" :redface:

Knownothing this will help to know:biggrin:



http://www.goldismoney2.com/showthread.php?21077-GOLD-IN-THIRD-WAVE/page4

d-lod

Quote Originally Posted by TomJerry View Post
What is positive divergence?
In simple words it a technical condition where prices are moving lower and indicators are taking upward position. If positive divergence takes place on weekly chart than there is possibility of upturn that is sustainable.

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/58...-stock-pattern


Positive Divergence is when the MACD makes a higher low but the market makes a lower low. This situation gives us a hint of a possible reversal to the upside. The other situation is Negative Divergence and is noted when the MACD makes a lower high while the market makes a higher high. This situation gives us a hint of a possible reversal to the downside.
 

d-lod

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http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1317016811.php



On 23 Sep 2011 the price of silver is $30.45 and the 200 day moving average is $35.76 which yields a relative price between the two of 0.8516x.

THE LEHMAN BROTHERS COLLAPSE

This ratio has never been lower in the past decade except shortly after Lehman brothers collapsed. Within a year the price had doubled. Within three years the price had gone up five-fold. The current correction and ensuing consolidation is setting the stage for a triple digit FRN$ silver price

But the savvy investor may ask, “But is not gold the proper numeraire?” Yes. Sure, this chart is showing silver through the FRN$ lens. The gold to silver ratio, currently around 48 ounces of silver per ounce of gold, does tell a different story. Silver is not nearly as cheap today as it was in the early part of the decade when the ratio was over 100. But as this secular bull market progresses the ratio should continue declining.

It will likely reach 16:1 and may even overshoot to 8:1 or as some rather bombastic commentators have made the case it may even go to parity, 1:1, or it may actually take more than one ounce of gold to purchase one ounce of silver. While it may seem unbelievable and in my opinion a low probability I do not think it is a completely unrealistic scenario.
GOLD PRICE SUPPRESSION SCHEME

Six years ago South African gold market analyst Peter George said at GATA’s Gold Rush 21 conference in Dawson City, ”In the last 10 years the central banks have effectively shown that when there’s a real crisis, gold actually goes down, and it’s so blatant, it’s a joke.” The central bank script has not changed.



THANK YOU
 

TomJerry

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If I understand your position on the PM markets, d lod, (for short and long term) gold and silver will take another hit based on TA, and then skyrocket to never before seen highs.

So I conclude that, on the next significant hit to PMs (1350ish gold/low-mid 20s silver?), one should invest as much as they can because it may the last chance to buy before they go parabolic.

That's may 2 cents anyway.
 

d-lod

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If I understand your position on the PM markets, d lod, (for short and long term) gold and silver will take another hit based on TA, and then skyrocket to never before seen highs.

So I conclude that, on the next significant hit to PMs (1350ish gold/low-mid 20s silver?), one should invest as much as they can because it may the last chance to buy before they go parabolic.

That's may 2 cents anyway.

TJ

so you are back with small query that need lot of analysis:biggrin:

Ilike your this query and yes to your observation. My experiences are telling me this:

PM, Precious stones, and any form of natural resources are way expensive than in sixties and that is only fifty year before, so think for yourself of fifty years after!

Not only prices but quality is diminishing precious stone(less skilled polishing), cotton and other agricultural commodity (fertilizer/pesticides) etc

Human being with less of intrinsic value, and many such other stuff.

So do me a favour open netdania site and open gold/silver chart, look at forest chart with pivot, you will see whenever there is gap between pivote point and price rise the metal consolidate to pivot or below it.
 

d-lod

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TJ

this is for you as well

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1317326819.phphttp://


Delay Buying



It should be recommended to anyone who is currently accumulating metals that purchasing silver immediately after a correction is a poor investment decision, especially in physical metals. Dealers, who have long exposure to silver, will surely price in silver’s fall into any metals sold immediately after a dip. Weak hands who wish to lock in profits and losses are going to be tough to sell, as well.



Therefore, for investors who want to double down on what is essentially a 9-month discount on silver, it may be best to wait. Those most eager to re-enter will be making what is a practical “donation” to a silver dealer, paying well above market price to cover some of the dealer’s cost of business.



Wait for the dust to settle. At less than $30 per ounce, paper silver is cheap, but the real deals won’t “trickle down” to physical silver for at least a few weeks.
 

Dairygirl

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According to this interview, we are entering another recession. How do you think this will affect the silver/gold prices in the near future.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/dail...han-says-recession-unavoidable-141929160.html
I'm thinking it is time to start stacking more since we are getting into the fall buying season. Now I am wondering if it wouldn't be better to wait a bit and see how this new recession affects the metals.
 

silverblood

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Dairygirl, I don't personally think we're in for another recession. I don't think the recession that started in 2007 ever ended, so this is just a worsening of the ongoing state of affairs. Analysts split hairs based on all kinds of indicators and government proclamations, but the number of people out of work and unable to find work, along with the falling home prices throughout the period tell the real story. Everything that has been hailed in the MSM as indicative of "recovery" since 2007 is just the effects of misallocation of resources induced by artificially low interest rates set by the FED (mainly to save the TBTF) and the effects of the FED's more recent reckless policies of QE.

I made a small purchase of a few ounces of silver at the beginning of the dip, but I didn't buy much because the premiums were high. I've decided to hold off a bit. Dealers I buy from have increased their premiums in spite of the dip, which in my mind lays to waste the oft-claimed justification for premium price creep we've seen over the last year. Some will tell you that premiums are determined by a percentage over spot price, but it's funny that they don't go down when the spot price drops. They premiums may come down eventually, but my theory is that right now they are staying high to cover the dealers losses.

This is what the article d-lod posted a link to (link fixed below) is referring to, and it serves as confirmation to me that my observations are spot on (pun intended).

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1317326819.php

$.89 to $1.99 over spot for 90% generic junk silver, $2.49 an ounce premium on generic rounds and 5 to 100 oz bars, and $5 premiums on government-issued coins doesn't get me very excited. I'm going to wait for lower premiums before I buy. If the metals take an upturn and I miss the boat, then that's on me. I'm willing to take that risk.

You should read, listen, and consider both the markets and your own individual situation before buying. In other words, DYODD. In the end, you are solely responsible for the decisions you make.

BTW, I follow this thread closely, but I don't pretend to understand all the TA. I'm grateful to d-lod for posting because it has gotten me interested in learning about EW and TA. I'm starting to study the topic so I can do my own analysis.
 
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Oldmansmith

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According to this interview, we are entering another recession. How do you think this will affect the silver/gold prices in the near future.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/dail...han-says-recession-unavoidable-141929160.html
I'm thinking it is time to start stacking more since we are getting into the fall buying season. Now I am wondering if it wouldn't be better to wait a bit and see how this new recession affects the metals.
I agree with Silverblood. Another recession?

The Fed creates trillions out of thin air, the government then lies about the inflation rate, and announces that the economy "grew" by a measly percentage point or so. Righty-right. Figures don't lie; but liars figure. The recession ended when the depression started.
 

Dairygirl

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If you have time to listen to the interview, he states that recessions in the past have lasted just a couple of years. Apparently, he is usually right according to the show's host and he states that this recession is going to be worse. He doesn't say it is the start of a depression just that all the technical indicators are that it will be a lot worse. Personally, I never knew that we got out of the last recession but he states that we did according to the indicators he watches.

I know premiums are high right now but I am buying a small amount every month of silver since the drop. Looking back when silver hit around $19 and then backed off to $12, I kicked myself for buying high. Now it looks like a good deal. As often stated here, buy when you can an average it out. I know premiums are high but that video that History Student referenced really makes the point that silver bullion could get real scarce real fast just for the sheer fact of how many people are now on the planet.

I guess I should have worded my question better. I'm not surprised that we dropped after reaching the $50 mark but I am surprised that we haven't started back up given the fact that fall is here and the wedding season in India has started. If the last recession ended in 2009 like he said and is now starting back up, how is that going to affect the metals? Looking back at my figures, during the recession of 07-09, silver stayed within a few dollars range. In 10-11 it exploded to the upside which was when we were out of a recession according to the analyst.. If we are in another recession or depression are we looking at another few years that it will vacillate up and down a narrow range?
 

Eyebone

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Dairygirl, I believe recessions are a degrading cycle, that is each 'recession" adds to the effect of the next, especially when they occur so close together, if we truly recovered from 2008.
 

Silver Art

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I think that the intra-day low of $26 that silver made a week ago was the bottom and it bounced off from the $26 level. I think that there is a possibility that silver could go back down and test the $26 level but if that happens, then I expect that silver will pass the test and $26 will hold from there.