Silver next upswing

[Silver Art]

I am surprised anyone on this site would be scared off of buying metals because of a recession. It's tough to remember when things were good. If you bought Silver expecting the economy to increase the price of Silver I wonder.

I am speaking for myself when I say this but, honestly speaking, I am not scared of the silver smack down. However, I am buying for a different reason than most on this board since I am just a silver art bar collector. As far as I am concerned, a lower silver price is good for me since I can buy silver art bars at a cheaper price (if I can find them locally at a decent premium). The silver smack down was bound to happen and it did and it does not bother me.

 

[Silver Buck]

I am surprised anyone on this site would be scared off of buying metals because of a recession. It's tough to remember when things were good. If you bought Silver expecting the economy to increase the price of Silver I wonder.

I purchased Silver because the banks wouldn't give me more than 1% on a Money Market account of $10K. That is the primary reason why I got into metals. It wasn't a 'get rich quick' scheme but a way to preserve some of my wealth.

Right now I'm debating where to put my profits. Do I put them back into the business or into metals? Or do I simply stock up on FRNs for now and 'wait and see' which way things go?

I'm thinking that since I do have my desired position in metals that I'll simply stock up on FRNs for the rest of the year, or until something else comes along to change my mind.

 

[Dairygirl]

Clive says the bottom is in and its time to buy. I guess that answers my question.
http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=67

 

[Silver Buck]

Clive says the bottom is in and its time to buy. I guess that answers my question.
http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=67

Patience.

Hold and wait.

Right now the world's economy rests on the edge of a knife. Europe (especially Germany) has sold its soul to weakly try and save Greece (a failing endeavor) and the US has been crippled due to 'Operation Twist'.

See what happens within the next couple of weeks before you pull the trigger.

 

[silverblood]

That was an interesting article, Dairygirl, thanks for posting.

It's fascinating to see the different schools of thought.

In this opinion http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=67 Clive Maund says silver will soon take off, perhaps sooner than people expect, and now is the time to buy.

In this opinion http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1317326819.php Dr. Jeffrey Lewis cautions against jumping in right now on physical acquisitions because dealer's are covering their losses with high premiums. He advises to wait for the dust to settle before buying.

One difference is that Maund is talking about paper silver and silver-related assets, whereas Lewis is talking about physical. But if Maund is right, the dust may not settle before silver takes off again.

I'm only buying physical; I'm not daring enough to get into paper options, futures, puts, and so forth. I'm sure I'd end up being one of the fleeced investors that Clive talks about if I tried. So I'm going to let the dust settle before buying, but I'll be keeping a close eye out for signs of silver rocket ignition and liftoff.

 

[d-lod]

According to this interview, we are entering another recession. How do you think this will affect the silver/gold prices in the near future.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/dail...han-says-recession-unavoidable-141929160.html
I'm thinking it is time to start stacking more since we are getting into the fall buying season. Now I am wondering if it wouldn't be better to wait a bit and see how this new recession affects the metals.

When you think of global village, it is just a monopoly game of big players. The real estate money from US has gone to growing countries where 1 million house is costing 8 million. The wisdom of eastern country believes gold as only tangible, highly liquidating investment, selling of which could be kept secret and so a face saving investment in worst case scenario.
As it is a marriage season in India, people are buying ceaselessly, regardless of prices.

Yes you may buy 50% to calm your nerves, either way you will benefit. I divide my investment in five portion and take advantage of falling knife and rising tree. DYODD

 

[Silver Buck]

Awesome Stuff

I have difficult time reading your missives (it's my eyes, they be damned), but I appreciate your message.

I am a fundamentalist, but I am being persuaded to use your 'waves' to time my moves.

Thanks for the work you do and that you take the time to not only share your observations but spend the time to explain to us who are only now beginning to see how you work your magic.

 

[d-lod]

I purchased Silver because the banks wouldn't give me more than 1% on a Money Market account of $10K. That is the primary reason why I got into metals. It wasn't a 'get rich quick' scheme but a way to preserve some of my wealth.

Right now I'm debating where to put my profits. Do I put them back into the business or into metals? Or do I simply stock up on FRNs for now and 'wait and see' which way things go?

I'm thinking that since I do have my desired position in metals that I'll simply stock up on FRNs for the rest of the year, or until something else comes along to change my mind.

http://alshamy70.files.wordpress.com/2011/02/kondratieff-cycle.jpeg

Silver Buck
Everytime it is a different form of investment that maximize the ROI. The above cycle will enlighten you. Right now as it is winter phase of 60 years(approx) cycle the natural resources will appreciate most.

 

[d-lod]

That was an interesting article, Dairygirl, thanks for posting.

It's fascinating to see the different schools of thought.

In this opinion http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=67 Clive Maund says silver will soon take off, perhaps sooner than people expect, and now is the time to buy.

In this opinion http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1317326819.php Dr. Jeffrey Lewis cautions against jumping in right now on physical acquisitions because dealer's are covering their losses with high premiums. He advises to wait for the dust to settle before buying.

One difference is that Maund is talking about paper silver and silver-related assets, whereas Lewis is talking about physical. But if Maund is right, the dust may not settle before silver takes off again.

I'm only buying physical; I'm not daring enough to get into paper options, futures, puts, and so forth. I'm sure I'd end up being one of the fleeced investors that Clive talks about if I tried. So I'm going to let the dust settle before buying, but I'll be keeping a close eye out for signs of silver rocket ignition and liftoff.

silverblood

Clive Maund has inertia of pendulum, in a way it is good but I have lost money initially in following him. You can refer few pages of this thread, he is often convert of his own prophesies.

 

[d-lod]

Dairygirl, I believe recessions are a degrading cycle, that is each 'recession" adds to the effect of the next, especially when they occur so close together, if we truly recovered from 2008.

Eyebone

Recession for me, are great turnaround for maximizing profit. If you have healthy portfolio of real estate, cash (bank deposit), precious metal and bond/shares. You can be king of this world. At any given time, one or two of them are topping and one is bottoming. Exchange your topping for bottoming investment. Right now it is us/pm or us/real estate.

So the intelligent is supreme and use it your benefit.

 

[Hystckndle]

Crouching silver...

 

[southfork]

Not this kind. :biggrin:

Could this be the back on the new GIM round?

 

[d-lod]

close below 29.80 will take silver further down.

 

[platinumdude]

When Silver hits $18 I'm buying all in.

 

[d-lod]

When Silver hits $18 I'm buying all in.

Are you sure we will see that price?

 

[Silver Art]

When Silver hits $18 I'm buying all in.

Hey Platinumdude, good luck with silver hitting $18 on the downside. I feel that silver has already bottomed out at $26 since it had a strong bounce off of that level. I do not see silver breaking $26.00 on the downside. There is that possibility that silver could go down and test that $26.00 level but if that was the case, then I feel that $26.00 would hold and bounce off from that $26.00 level.

 

[Silver Buck]

While actual industrial buyers may want $18, I can say that many bought at the latest downturn toward $30 because they were blindsided by the run up toward $48 (ask Kodak - their butts still hurt).

With this downturn, they have loaded up and now it is up to the speculators to shore up the price. The commercial shorts have liquidated their positions (and/or the longs bailed while the could) and now it seems that the floor is around $30.

Sucks to be the 'Johnnies Come Lately' to Silver (and Gold), but if they buy now, they will reap great rewards decades from now.

*ahem*

Excuse me, but the Cabernet seems to be having its way at the moment.

 

[platinumdude]

I bought silver when it was $13 and the premiums were cheap. Looking for a good fall to buy a little more.

 

[d-lod]

While actual industrial buyers may want $18, I can say that many bought at the latest downturn toward $30 because they were blindsided by the run up toward $48 (ask Kodak - their butts still hurt).

With this downturn, they have loaded up and now it is up to the speculators to shore up the price. The commercial shorts have liquidated their positions (and/or the longs bailed while the could) and now it seems that the floor is around $30.

Sucks to be the 'Johnnies Come Lately' to Silver (and Gold), but if they buy now, they will reap great rewards decades from now.

*ahem*

Excuse me, but the Cabernet seems to be having its way at the moment.

Silver Buck

I have a different scenario that is my own interpretation, rather than ALF FIELD'S. He feels that wave One is completed and we are in Third, but I feel we are in 3 of One.

The silver upward movement started in November 2001 and wave 1 completed in March 2008, ie 6 years and 4 months.
The wave 3 started in Oct 2008 and finished in April 2011 and lasted for 2 years and 6 month. giving rise to 17$ and 41$ price rise.

So analyzing, time factor the wave 3 took .38% of time to finish, if this is so than the next would be swift bigger and with unimaginable

 

[d-lod]

Silver Buck

I have a different scenario that is my own interpretation, rather than ALF FIELD'S. He feels that wave One is completed and we are in Third, but I feel we are in 3 of One.

The silver upward movement started in November 2001 and wave 1 completed in March 2008, ie 6 years and 4 months.
The wave 3 started in Oct 2008 and finished in April 2011 and lasted for 2 years and 6 month. giving rise to 17$ and 41$ price rise.

So analyzing, time factor the wave 3 took .38% of time to finish, if this is so than the next would be swift bigger and with unimaginable

.

Silver in congestion belt between 29 -32, forming a triangle, the pattern should resolve soon

 

[d-lod]

Silver in congestion belt between 29 -32, forming a triangle, the pattern should resolve soon

Silver on short term time frame is giving sell signal with long term, weekly, the rsi and momentum still stuck to bottom.

Make your positions clear, if traders take it to 36-38 the bottom was last 26 dollar bottom , but if 36 is not reached than it will blow 26 bottom on the down side.

 

[Garyw]

Hogwash Silver has found a bottom and is on its way up. Sure there will be small corrections but it is going to go up for the rest of this year and part of next year. Until the dollar implodes.

 

[d-lod]

Hogwash Silver has found a bottom and is on its way up. Sure there will be small corrections but it is going to go up for the rest of this year and part of next year. Until the dollar implodes.

Garyw

I agree this is what had happened when silver bottomed in eastern zone trading, but this time a hiccup is expected. None of the big dealer in eastern world has made big purchases. They are waiting for the lower prices.

This week or by end of oct silver will bottom. Right now the apex tip is suggesting fall below 31 will take to 28 and below it will be free fall and bottom of silver.

Only price of 36-37 will take it 50.

 

[klichko]

D-Lod,

Hope you are right about silver bottoming this month cause I am a buyer.

I wonder what is your current stand on silver vs. gold potential? Will you be buying more silver or gold or certain percentages of both (given that both bottom)?

Thanks.

 

[d-lod]

D-Lod,

Hope you are right about silver bottoming this month cause I am a buyer.

I wonder what is your current stand on silver vs. gold potential? Will you be buying more silver or gold or certain percentages of both (given that both bottom)?

Thanks.

klichko

I beleive you have taken into consideration of bullish count if silver reaches 36. I will be buyer when it goes below 26. I am not sure what will be price of physical than. Backwardation will be there.

Regarding gold to silver, I will be buying more silver than gold, because 11 years ago I had purchased both for same amount of FRN, and I exchanged double gold from my silver in may. Gold will bottom late around March/April, so plenty of time to buy gold, It took 9 months to bottom in 2008.

Silver is by-product of copper, gold and other metal, so is far rare than gold in comparing prices. Its production is 7 times more than gold but destructive consumption exceeds far.

 

[d-lod]

klichko

I beleive you have taken into consideration of bullish count if silver reaches 36. I will be buyer when it goes below 26. I am not sure what will be price of physical than. Backwardation will be there.

Regarding gold to silver, I will be buying more silver than gold, because 11 years ago I had purchased both for same amount of FRN, and I exchanged double gold from my silver in may. Gold will bottom late around March/April, so plenty of time to buy gold, It took 9 months to bottom in 2008.

Silver is by-product of copper, gold and other metal, so is far rare than gold in comparing prices. Its production is 7 times more than gold but destructive consumption exceeds far.

Silver and gold cheaper for Indians as today is most auspicious day to buy this two metals, comes every three years.

 

[d-lod]

Silver if breaks this apex of ascending triangle, will free flow below 30.25.Right now it is 30 .79

 

[Strawboss]

Silver if breaks this apex of ascending triangle, will free flow below 30.25.Right now it is 30 .79

CRASH you DOG. CRASH!!!! (I wanna load up on some of that new 3x silver ETF) :biggrin:

 

[Silver Art]

Silver if breaks this apex of ascending triangle, will free flow below 30.25.Right now it is 30 .79

The intra-day low so far today is $30.37. It will be interesting to see what happens later this morning. I still think that there is a possibility that $26 intra-day low that was made late last month could be tested. However, it seems to me that silver is staying in the $30-$31 range. I am just making a wild guess at this point since I do not know very much about TA or a chart analysis. We will see what happens.

 

[lightcycler]

CRASH you DOG. CRASH!!!! (I wanna load up on some of that new 3x silver ETF) :biggrin:

I'm looking at a monster box of eagles. Difference from yesterday to say $26 is $2500. I'll pull the trigger at $26

 

[d-lod]

CRASH you DOG. CRASH!!!! (I wanna load up on some of that new 3x silver ETF) :biggrin:

There are more buyers than sellers, big player will make them loose their position in one or other way, they will play their game to hoot. Big players tools are time and shorts.

 

[d-lod]

33.52...........26.71....................Right now silver has taken support at 38.74 and returned back, breaking of this support will take silver to 36.42 and if that is broken than it will reach first Elliot wave support at 33.52.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/maund/oct242011_silver.html

The times of greatest opportunity are usually masked by danger, and there is certainly great danger at this time of Europe failing and thus a lot of associated fear in the markets. Could things get even worse and tank the markets, possibly including gold and silver? - yes, of course they could and we looked at this blood curdling scenario last week, but whether or not this occurs one thing is clear - the normally right Commercials are banking on a resolution of this crisis and soon, and if things do get even worse it is safe to assume that their positions will become even more lopsided. The silver COT charts remain at their most bullish ever, and Commercial short positions dropped even more last week to a record, which just by itself suggests that silver is bottoming.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Bevan/oct242011.html

Silver is still basing out here and dropped 2.52% this past week. I really don’t have anything else to say about it. We can certainly go either way from here as we trade within the tightening range between $33 and $31.

The SLV ETF saw weak volume all week with a slight uptick on Thursdays move lower. The basing action in the chart and low volume is perfect here as we build this base.

Last week I did expect silver to have moved one way or another by now as the triangle was close to completing but that hasn't been the case so far. I do expect a resolution one way or another though over the next two weeks sometime.

 

[d-lod]

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2386283&cmd=show[s205928407]&disp=O


Silver, has not come near 36 where scenario turns bullish.............

The above link will suggest you what chart is telling in terms of trend and volume.

 

[lightcycler]

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2386283&cmd=show[s205928407]&disp=O


Silver, has not come near 36 where scenario turns bullish.............

The above link will suggest you what chart is telling in terms of trend and volume.

Its like the ketchup commericial of years ago. Anticipation ....its making me wait. Heinz is slow good :)

 

[d-lod]

Its like the ketchup commericial of years ago. Anticipation ....its making me wait. Heinz is slow good :)

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

Silver Chart improving but still bearish
Let's start by examining the weekly chart for a bit longer perspective. For starters, silver remains held under the 50 week moving average so strictly speaking it is still bearish. Once it climbs above this level, funds generally become more involved in the market so that will be the first achievement which the bulls will have to pull off to get the speculators more interested in the market. Note that the over the last two weeks, this level has effectively capped any upward progress although the bulls are working on securing a breach of this important technical level.



You might also notice that there are two sets of Fibonacci levels drawn on the chart. The first, in red, uses the peak near $50 and the subsequent spike bottom near the $26 level. The second set, in blue, uses the failed rally attempt culminating near $44.27 and the same spike low to project some potential resistance levels. The market has rallied back to exactly the 38.2% retracement level of the former and the 50% retracement level of the latter.

You can see that there is a confluence of THREE key resistance levels near the high made by silver this week. Until the bulls can better this level, the stronger-handed bears are not going to run.

What has been happening with silver is that the risk on, or risk-off trades continue to jerk the metal up or down depending on which trade happens to be in vogue on any given day. If we move into next week and market interprets any events in Europe in a negative fashion, silver is going to get sold down along with copper. If the converse is true, silver will move higher alongside of copper.

As has been the axiom of recent weeks, we will know what will happen only AFTER it happens. There is no predicting any of this madness. The bulls are very close to seizing the initiative but close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades.

The little mastero..........................

 

[TomJerry]

Been away from the PMs for a while, d-lod. What are the technicals looking like? Still bullish on both metals I assume? :)

How about short term? When should I be looking to buy more physical?

 

[d-lod]

Been away from the PMs for a while, d-lod. What are the technicals looking like? Still bullish on both metals I assume? :)

How about short term? When should I be looking to buy more physical?

A close above 36 is must for upward swing, as stated earlier, secondly the bottom should be built soon, as earlier too the silver's correction time ended nine month. Look at monthly chart and compare both correction of 2008-09 and this one, you will find the picture is not complete without one down leg.

It sure is also based on Europe issue as it looks larger than life. Everything is so much manipulated. China and India are devaluing currency to get export order, week dollar is made to seem mighty.

If Europe is helped truly than metals should run through roof.

 

[lightcycler]

A close above 36 is must for upward swing, as stated earlier, secondly the bottom should be built soon, as earlier too the silver's correction time ended nine month. Look at monthly chart and compare both correction of 2008-09 and this one, you will find the picture is not complete without one down leg.

I keep looking and it sure does need that down leg. I will be making a large physical purchase. Just sitting back and waiting like a lion in the bush.

 

[TomJerry]

I keep looking and it sure does need that down leg. I will be making a large physical purchase. Just sitting back and waiting like a lion in the bush.

About what price are you waiting for?

 

[lightcycler]

About what price are you waiting for?

$25 to $26