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Silver next upswing

d-lod

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http://www.kitco.com/ind/burak/nov072011.html

First we had a “box” pattern, then we had a triangular pattern, now we have an upward sloped wedge pattern. One of these day’s I’ll get it right. In the mean time the pattern is now a wedge with an upward tilt. These patterns are very often bearish pattern when they follow a bear trend. It works like a mid-way rest period or consolidation before the bear trend continues. Is that what will happen here? Only time will tell.

LONG TERM

Trend: Silver price is below its long term moving average line and the line is moving lower.

Strength: The long term momentum indicator is just above its neutral line and above its positive sloping trigger line.

Volume: The volume indicator did not take a severe plunge as did the price in Sept but at the same time it is not acting that great during the very recent advance. It is, however, above its positive sloping trigger line at the Friday close.

With the actions of the momentum and volume indicators the rating of silver at the Friday close is a – NEUTRAL rating, one level above a full bear.

INTERMEDIATE TERM

Trend: Although the price has recently been on the move higher it has not quite breached its intermediate term moving average line. It remains below the average line with the line still in a downward slope.

Strength: The intermediate term momentum has been on the rise recently and is above its positive sloping trigger line but the indicator has not quite made it into its positive zone just yet.

Volume: For the past two weeks the volume indicator has remained above its intermediate term trigger line and the trigger remains in a positive slope.

Despite the positive showing by the volume indicator it is not enough to overcome the other indicators. At the Friday close the intermediate term rating is still BEARISH. This bear is confirmed by the short term moving average line remaining below the intermediate term average, although the two are closing in on each other pretty fast.

SHORT TERM

Trend: Silver price has been above its short term moving average line for a couple of weeks but now looks to be close to moving below the line. Still, at the Friday close it remains above the line with the line in a positive slope.

Strength: The short term momentum indicator has entered its positive zone but as yet does not look that strong. It has moved below its trigger line although the trigger remains in a slightly positive slope.

Volume: As with gold the daily volume action here is relatively low and not the kind of activity one likes to see if we are looking for a strong bull move in the price.

Putting it all together the short term rating, at the Friday close, is BULLISH with the very short term moving average line confirming.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/maund/nov072011_silver.html


Silver did what was expected of it last week, by reacting back to support in the $33.50 area, although it very briefly touched $32 intraday on Tuesday, and then, also as expected it bounced back. On the 4-month chart the action last week looks like a normal reaction, that may be a bull Flag, within a young uptrend that was signalled by the clear break above important resistance in the $33 area, which marked the top of the now completed intermediate base pattern.

Silver looks good here, and like it is preparing to break clear above the 50-day moving average, which is falling just above the price and currently acting as a constraining influence. The next upleg is expected to see it run at the more serious zone of resistance in the $37.80 - $39.50 area, which will be a bigger obstacle, as at this level it will run into supply from earlier buyers who were fleeced during the recent plunge and remain unnerved and ready to sell when they see prices improve.

The COT chart for silver remains strongly bullish with low Commercial short and Large Spec long positions and we saw some improvement in these figures last week.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Bevan/nov072011.html


Looking back to the breakdown in September from the double top gives me an uptrend line which looks to me to be the next target for gold, and it’s likely to be hit in no more than a week and a half.

From there, around $1,840 by the time we get there, we should be expecting a consolidation and perhaps, if we get lucky enough, a handle of a cup and handle pattern will form, which would then propel gold well past the coveted 2k area.

All in all it’s shaping up to see a nice run into the end of the year and I’d expect a price over 2k by years end if we get lucky and the above plays out.
CME To Smash Gold and Silver


By Warren Bevan Printer Friendly Version Bookmark and Share
Nov 7 2011 11:02AM


www.preciousmetalstockreview.com

The markets were wild this week and in the end ended up at least 2% lower in the US. Two huge down days, two large up days then Friday saw modest weakness into the weekend.

To say the markets are schizophrenic is an understatement and we’re sitting on the sidelines in the swing trading portfolio, although these wild gyrations are setting up some pretty sweet charts that may give us a great chance to make some quick profits in the very near term.

The big swings were caused mainly by the Greek wavering on a potential referendum. I don’t know what’s wrong with these guys over there but they caused huge markets disruptions and look set on continuing the mayhem until something certain is set.

Late Friday night the Greek Prime Minister survived a vote of confidence by a margin of 153 to 145.

Let’s look at the charts which look great, but the CME has thrown a wrench into the spokes late Friday night so please keep reading to hear more about that.

Metals review

Gold rose only 0.66% on the week but did perform admirably with a couple solid days in the mix. I apologize for the chart being a bit complex this week. I normally try and keep things as simple as possible here but it’s not in the cards this week.

We had a breakout from a W pattern and now we’re forming an uptrend channel with higher highs, which is awesome.

Looking back to the breakdown in September from the double top gives me an uptrend line which looks to me to be the next target for gold, and it’s likely to be hit in no more than a week and a half.

From there, around $1,840 by the time we get there, we should be expecting a consolidation and perhaps, if we get lucky enough, a handle of a cup and handle pattern will form, which would then propel gold well past the coveted 2k area.

All in all it’s shaping up to see a nice run into the end of the year and I’d expect a price over 2k by years end if we get lucky and the above plays out.

The GLD ETF volume was perfect. Low volume on down days and strong but not outrageous volume on up days. Perfect bullish action as it should be.

Gold is acting in textbook fashion these day which is odd.

One thing to note is that Monday November 7th, Indian markets are closed so we could see weakness with their lack of buying, add to that the manipulative antics over at the CME which I talk about later and we’re sure to see the gold chart messed up a bit in the short term.

For the CME to make this move with the known lack of buying out of India on Monday just seems a little to perfectly choreographed to me.

Silver didn't fare quite so well and dropped on the week to the tune of 3.64%. While the week was down, the chart is very constructive. Silver recently broke out of the triangle I’d been talking about here and now is coming close to a resolution in the much larger triangle which will lead to a much larger move.

The large triangle is getting tight here so we are going to move one way or the other within a week or maybe a little more, but not much.

I’ve been known to read charts wrong at times as charts like to do that to a fella but this one looks really good for higher prices and soon.

Get your silver on sale now as it’s going to be at least ten times higher as I talk about later, and for me that is a layup, it should go much higher
Fundamental Review

Some huge news in regards to futures positions was released by the CME Friday well after the close, which is pretty underhanded. They said as of this coming Monday, November 7th, maintenance margin, to hold a position overnight, will now equal initial margin costs. Usually there is a 26% difference.

This means there is going to be a huge dump in gold, silver and many other commodities Sunday night and Monday as billions of dollars extra are going to have to be ponied up to hold positions.

The fact is many traders won’t be able to come up with the cash in such a short time.

If this isn’t manipulation I don’t have a clue what is. And to make it worse, it’s facilitated by the regulators. The CME should be investigated for market rigging.

The good news is you’ll be able to buy more gold and silver on sale this coming Monday! The coming drop will not last long so get it while you can.
 

lightcycler

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We already got that. If you are counting we have already had two large downlegs so that should be it.
I don't think the second downleg is complete. I agree with D lod that a break of $36 would be very bullish and would push me to buy at the higher price.

Edit: I think that final downleg has started.
 
Last edited:

klichko

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I bought 2 MS-69 ATB coins yesterday so PMs are going done now :yes:

I am still waiting for my monster box to get cheaper :biggrin:
 

soupbone

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Fast approaching $31. Am planning to buy today or tomorrow. How long should I wait?
 

d-lod

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Thanks to all recent posters and in correction patience pays big.
O.K so what would be bottom this time?
 

Silver Art

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Thanks to all recent posters and in correction patience pays big.
O.K so what would be bottom this time?
I still think that the $26.00 Intra-day low that was made on September 26 is the bottom and it will hold if silver continues to go down for a "retest" of that Intra-day low.
 

d-lod

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I still think that the $26.00 Intra-day low that was made on September 26 is the bottom and it will hold if silver continues to go down for a "retest" of that Intra-day low.
Silver Art

Once I get five response from experts, I will give mine recounted.
 

lightcycler

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Silver Art

Once I get five response from experts, I will give mine recounted.
Well looking back at that dlod guys numbers C=A at 26.71 :) Ultimately I will also be looking at gold for guidance. I think gold bottoms here at 1650. Dow looking for 11,000. The next few days should iluminate the way :)
 

klichko

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I still think that the $26.00 Intra-day low that was made on September 26 is the bottom and it will hold if silver continues to go down for a "retest" of that Intra-day low.
Anything can happen ... :bear_cry:

I even consider the possibility that Obuma is the last president of the US since there will be no longer UNITED states ... there will be just states. Just like USSR collapsed.

Silver does not look attractive right now. The silver sentiment is bad and it is heavy (never thought I would say this). Big players, big money will drive the price up. J6P cannot afford neither gold nor silver, just beer. $1 million can be parked in ~40 pounds of gold and ~2200 pounds of silver today. Feel the difference? An average car/truck won't take this load of silver. Big paper money will park in gold.

Yes, silver may (likely) fall to twenties but it may stay there for an extended period of time. Gold will perform!

I am thinking today that I will be buying gold instead of silver.
 

d-lod

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Anything can happen ... :bear_cry:

I even consider the possibility that Obuma is the last president of the US since there will be no longer UNITED states ... there will be just states. Just like USSR collapsed.

Silver does not look attractive right now. The silver sentiment is bad and it is heavy (never thought I would say this). Big players, big money will drive the price up. J6P cannot afford neither gold nor silver, just beer. $1 million can be parked in ~40 pounds of gold and ~2200 pounds of silver today. Feel the difference? An average car/truck won't take this load of silver. Big paper money will park in gold.

Yes, silver may (likely) fall to twenties but it may stay there for an extended period of time. Gold will perform!

I am thinking today that I will be buying gold instead of silver.
Thanks for your converted views and believe me US will remain united, as individual state, it will be difficult for them to restart.
A country that has maximized service sector and marketing skills, (only by marketing dollars forgot about its consequences) may not survive without other countries nor has resiliency to stand tall. 70 YEARS of luxury has spoiled them.
 

Silver Art

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Anything can happen ... :bear_cry:

I even consider the possibility that Obuma is the last president of the US since there will be no longer UNITED states ... there will be just states. Just like USSR collapsed.

Silver does not look attractive right now. The silver sentiment is bad and it is heavy (never thought I would say this). Big players, big money will drive the price up. J6P cannot afford neither gold nor silver, just beer. $1 million can be parked in ~40 pounds of gold and ~2200 pounds of silver today. Feel the difference? An average car/truck won't take this load of silver. Big paper money will park in gold.

Yes, silver may (likely) fall to twenties but it may stay there for an extended period of time. Gold will perform!

I am thinking today that I will be buying gold instead of silver.
You are correct in that anything can happen especially with a manipulated market such as silver. The only certainty about silver is volatility.
 

klichko

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Thanks for your converted views and believe me US will remain united, as individual state, it will be difficult for them to restart.
A country that has maximized service sector and marketing skills, (only by marketing dollars forgot about its consequences) may not survive without other countries nor has resiliency to stand tall. 70 YEARS of luxury has spoiled them.
USSR people did not know much about how other people lived - they were confident that they lived better than other people (and they did live better than many other nations). The collapse was initiated by greedy and corrupted politicians who wanted to have their own piece of pie only for themselves. Sheep were persuaded by corrupted media that dividing the country (becoming independent) would be the most beneficial for them. Based on the quality of our politicians and sheep, I would not rule this outcome out. Promise sheep a better life and they will follow.
 

d-lod

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USSR people did not know much about how other people lived - they were confident that they lived better than other people (and they did live better than many other nations). The collapse was initiated by greedy and corrupted politicians who wanted to have their own piece of pie only for themselves. Sheep were persuaded by corrupted media that dividing the country (becoming independent) would be the most beneficial for them. Based on the quality of our politicians and sheep, I would not rule this outcome out. Promise sheep a better life and they will follow.

Unknowing you have expressed the truth. The fragile ego of human being always feel that they have best of the life.
American thought luxury - as best lifestyle, Chinese thought industrious - as best lifestyle, .......so on and so forth.
Gold............Indian ways of giving gold (MARRIAGE AND GIFT) and increasing wealth has become a legend
 

Deuce

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Anything can happen ... :bear_cry:


Silver does not look attractive right now. The silver sentiment is bad and it is heavy (never thought I would say this). Big players, big money will drive the price up. J6P cannot afford neither gold nor silver, just beer. $1 million can be parked in ~40 pounds of gold and ~2200 pounds of silver today. Feel the difference? An average car/truck won't take this load of silver. Big paper money will park in gold.

Yes, silver may (likely) fall to twenties but it may stay there for an extended period of time. Gold will perform!

I am thinking today that I will be buying gold instead of silver.
Gold is the focus of US gov't tax reporting in the new healthcare bill scheduled to take affect Jan 1 2012. They are looking at profit and loss reporting for amounts over $600.00. This will hurt gold holders looking to sell but silver investors needing some cash for living can easily sell a few ounces and avoid reporting gains.
I wouldn't be too quick to rule out J6P's desire for the shiny metal as it will be the only one he can afford => poor man's gold.:smile:
 

Garyw

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If silver would drop to 5 or 10 bucks an ounce I could get well again and maybe even double my money.
 

d-lod

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If silver would drop to 5 or 10 bucks an ounce I could get well again and maybe even double my money.
Ta.ll wish list but truly welcome. Metal prices are directly propotionate to printed money because PM is money
 

d-lod

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http://news.silverseek.com/CliveMaund/1321836820.php


On the 4-month chart for silver we can examine recent action in detail. In the light of the latest thinking the rally from late September following the brutal plunge is now viewed as a weak relief rally, which failed on Thursday with a breakdown, which was anticipated on the site with a warning being given, and for a break lower by the broad stockmarket. Volume on this rally was weak, and after struggling beneath heavy resistance centered on $35 and its falling 50-day moving average for more than 2 weeks, silver broke down from the uptrend in force from late September. The MACD has dropped down through its moving average, which is a bearish development. We cannot hope to grasp the big picture of what is going on in silver on a 4-month chart, so now we will look at an 18-month chart.
he 18-month chart for silver shows all of the action from the start of the big ramp that began in August of 2010. Earlier thinking was that as a 3-wave decline, involving 2 crashlets, had completed by the September low, a new 5-wave major uptrend would follow, and of course it would if politicians obliged with a globally coordinated QE campaign, but unfortunately it doesn't look like they are going to get that together and we are instead looking at the specter of a deflationary implosion triggered by the collapse of Europe. This realization has prompted a reexamination of the charts which has led to the discovery of a large Head-and-Shoulders top in silver completing above an upsloping neckline as shown. Other technical factors suggesting that an H&S top is indeed completing are the volume pattern - there was no increase in volume at all on the latest rise to mark out the Right Shoulder of the pattern and a particularly ominous development is the strongly downtrending MACD indicator which is showing that the major trend is swinging steadily from up to down - and we are already firmly in down territory.

A reason for our bullishness in the recent past was the COT charts, which showed a very low Commercial short and Large Spec position. However, the COT has deteriorated in recent weeks with little to show for it in the way of a rally. Currently it still looks rather bullish, and it is difficult to reconcile this with the bearish picture we have just described which correlates with the potential for a brutal collapse in world stockmarkets associated with deflationary forces coming to the fore again.

Outlook bender........................Technical are bend and re-bend, only this thread has stood still with its predictions.
 
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Anything can happen ... :bear_cry:

Silver does not look attractive right now. The silver sentiment is bad and it is heavy (never thought I would say this). Big players, big money will drive the price up. J6P cannot afford neither gold nor silver, just beer. $1 million can be parked in ~40 pounds of gold and ~2200 pounds of silver today. Feel the difference? An average car/truck won't take this load of silver. Big paper money will park in gold.

.
At todays prices one million dollars is 2200 pounds of silver, but in tomorrow's silver price a million dollars will weight alot less than 2200 pounds. :565:

Start dream sequence: Possibly it may weigh 40 lbs.:biggrin:
 

NEBULOUS

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If you listen to the Ned Schmidt interview over at Financial Sense News Hour, he does not think that silver will bottom until the February to April time frame! :bear_unsure:
 

klichko

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At todays prices one million dollars is 2200 pounds of silver, but in tomorrow's silver price a million dollars will weight alot less than 2200 pounds. :565:

Start dream sequence: Possibly it may weigh 40 lbs.:biggrin:
Sure, as long as you are comfortable to pay $300 for a gallon of milk.
Neither silver nor gold will make one rich. They can protect wealth from inflation and that is basically it.
 

d-lod

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To me its a tough call right now. I've got a monster box of eagles in my sights and getting ready. Should be a fair drop today. Then assess where we stand.
No it is not, I am just waiting for more three guesses from visitors of this thread.

Silver Art

Once I get five response from experts, I will give mine recounted.
 

engineear

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The only ones who know are the manipulators. All others are guesses. Take your charts and graphs and toss 'em. On occasion the numbers fall into place on those charts but, I think, you can make them look however you'd like. Once the paper falls and we head to the moon what of the charts then?
Holding long term.
 

eboard10

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The fact that JP Morgan has bought all of MF Global's London Metal Exchange shares becoming the no.1 shareholder worries me even more. Not surprised if we'll experience a sudden drop in silver prices in the coming week (I honestly wouldn't mind at all :)
 

klichko

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No it is not, I am just waiting for more three guesses from visitors of this thread.
Here are three more guesses from people I talk to:

1. will hang in 30-35 range for at least 3 more months
2. will go to 26-30 range and stay there for at least 3 more months
3. will go up in December towards 50. will see it in upper 40s within a month

I know, I know ... we are missing a guess of silver going below 26. Otherwise, we are covered :biggrin:
 

d-lod

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Happy Thanksgiving, Everyone!
klichko

Same to you. OK. be ready for two counts, one as per Alf and second as per other probabilities. One of the probability is financial turmoil in Global village.

One see this wave as wave 1 of THIRD and second takes it as completion of major WAVE ONE.