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Silver
- Thread starter Strawboss
- Start date
And when it goes to $50?? $100????
You might want to get a head start - getting your leg behind you to kick your own ass!!
OK - that was a joke - but here's the thing..........I listen all the time to people saying when it gets to such and such a point, they will sell..............neither you nor anyone else with brains will sell if the market has taken off.........
I never set figures up - only figures down.
Right now I am up - roughly 45% - I will not sell till a) I need the cash or b) I see profit disappearing.........
Every time the metals go up - I raise the level to which I would sell on the way down.........and actually break it into 3 groups so I do not risk it all on a short-term move.......
But metals are going to go up for a very long time...........
This is NOT 1979-80.................trust me.............I was there in gold too......and sold at $825 the day before it plunged......!
This may rhyme - but I knew THEN it was a practice round for whats coming NOW!!!!
Cheers!!
Well, I am not sure I QUITE understand the question.........cause I need to know and average buy-in price........
In that case - my average silver buy-in (excluding numismatics) is $13.69...........so i would have ridden up to $21.30....and made note, as it started to drop, that the difference is $11.81 (at least my quick math - I haven't double-checked.)
So yes, I would have sold 1/3 each four dollars down (VERY generally speaking.....there are far more important factors at play here than technicals - tho I appreciate technicals - fundamentals are going to play a huge part in this next rally.)
Now - I just hope I asked the right question and that it made any sense.........and again, very generally speaking..........
Good to see you here - have really enjoyed your posts over the years.......
Cheers!
In that case - my average silver buy-in (excluding numismatics) is $13.69...........so i would have ridden up to $21.30....and made note, as it started to drop, that the difference is $11.81 (at least my quick math - I haven't double-checked.)
So yes, I would have sold 1/3 each four dollars down (VERY generally speaking.....there are far more important factors at play here than technicals - tho I appreciate technicals - fundamentals are going to play a huge part in this next rally.)
Now - I just hope I asked the right question and that it made any sense.........and again, very generally speaking..........
Good to see you here - have really enjoyed your posts over the years.......
Cheers!
I have a lot of people who have invested with me - and I have put out a newsletter a couple of times a week since 1996.........and trust me, NO ONE questions me more than myself!!! (I also have a group of writers I read and online radio shows I listen to......and a few dozen articles I force myself to read - just to hear the other side.)
I would be demolished if I had set these folks down the wrong path!
On the other hand.......... everyone busts my chops
(I suspect cause I do that to them too - but all in play!)
.......so I am sort of immune!!!
:haha:
I would be demolished if I had set these folks down the wrong path!
On the other hand.......... everyone busts my chops
(I suspect cause I do that to them too - but all in play!)
.......so I am sort of immune!!!
:haha:
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There is no question in my mind that silver is manipulated. There are times when said manipulation really screws up a chart and makes the technicals seem ridiculous to even talk about. But, that is probably 10% of the time. The other 90% of the time it does trade freely (or so it seems). And, those times when it is manipulated creates pretty good entries afterwards.
There are of course 2 sides to the equation - technicals and fundamentals. I sleep well at night because the fundamentals say silver is going much, much higher no matter how much they manipulate the market. So, thats my "backdrop" so to speak. I use the technicals to try to time entries and exits on trading positions. Plus, I have always seen silver as being the ultimate challenge. If I can be successful trading silver - I can be successful trading any market. I have been involved in this market since shortly after 9/11, and my average is still substantially less than $10/oz (although it keeps rising).
There are of course 2 sides to the equation - technicals and fundamentals. I sleep well at night because the fundamentals say silver is going much, much higher no matter how much they manipulate the market. So, thats my "backdrop" so to speak. I use the technicals to try to time entries and exits on trading positions. Plus, I have always seen silver as being the ultimate challenge. If I can be successful trading silver - I can be successful trading any market. I have been involved in this market since shortly after 9/11, and my average is still substantially less than $10/oz (although it keeps rising).
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The way i see silver at this point is the more the time it spends in 18+- range the easier it will slive thro 19.48 barrier on the rise and higher it will go.
Quite possibly this time when gold goes above 1220 silver may as well be breaking above 21s..
When remains to be seen. Maybe next week or next 1 or 2 months. Once 1940s give the surge should be quick.
This week was first possible week when that could have happened. Did not ..
Let us see how the third and fourth week of April plays out.
Quite possibly this time when gold goes above 1220 silver may as well be breaking above 21s..
When remains to be seen. Maybe next week or next 1 or 2 months. Once 1940s give the surge should be quick.
This week was first possible week when that could have happened. Did not ..
Let us see how the third and fourth week of April plays out.
You are the man.:bowdown:
It could be argued the Chinese took more of a beating because the authorities imposed more restrictions on real estate speculation. http://www.sinocism.com/archives/223
I view the new restrictions as more bullish for the Chinese stock markets as RE "investors" now have to find some new place to place their bets.
It could be argued the Chinese took more of a beating because the authorities imposed more restrictions on real estate speculation. http://www.sinocism.com/archives/223
I view the new restrictions as more bullish for the Chinese stock markets as RE "investors" now have to find some new place to place their bets.
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Todays action was encouraging as dip buyers appeared and drove prices well above the lows. As you no doubt know, I am bullish and believe we are in the early stages of a wave 5 of 1 of MAJOR THREE rally which will take gold to around $1350ish and silver to challenge the highs above $21 (and perhaps higher).
You should already be positioned and hang on tight. Dont let the bastards shake you out of your positions. There is a right time to sell - this isnt it!
You should already be positioned and hang on tight. Dont let the bastards shake you out of your positions. There is a right time to sell - this isnt it!
Thanks for the chart IHLancers. It looks like we are getting a good breakout above the red resistance and retest. If you were to extend the red line we would be just about right on it. I'd say we are ready to see some really good movement. In fact, I may have to see if I can dredge up some more FRN's.
Silver The Most Bullish Currency
I'm not convinced that the second chart is one of an inverse head-and-shoulders, but I agree with most of the essay, and I agree with hist price target (believing that Ag will return to one day's average wage).
Silver The Most Bullish Currency
By: Hubert Moolman
Gold appears extremely bullish in most of the world’s currency. Probably more than it has ever been in the last 30 years. However, there is one currency in which gold is looking really bearish.
That currency is none other than the world’s other true currency called silver. The outlook for silver as a currency is as bright as it has ever been; in fact, in my opinion, there is no currency that will match silver over the next couple of years
Below is a long term chart of the gold/silver ratio, which translates to the silver price of gold.
The current price of ounce of gold in real money is about 62.95 ounces of silver. If you look at the long term chart you will see that the highest price was about 100 ounces of silver and the lowest about 14; this is quite a ridicules fluctuation in the ratio between two of the most stable metals and forms of money on this planet. This big fluctuation is not a reflection on gold or silver’s instability, but it is indicative of the flawed monetary system we have today.
What one can also see on the chart is that the ratio has strong resistance around the 80 level and there is good support at the 45 – 50 level. The ratio has been range bound for almost 2 decades between the above mentioned support and resistance.
Notice that even during the market crash of end 2008; the ratio did not successfully breach the 80 level, despite silver being really weak. After falling back to 60-61 since the crash of 2008, the ratio has tried to challenge the 80 level again but has failed twice (can be seen on a short term chart) at the 70 level. This is a bad sign for gold’s price in silver and it is an indication that the momentum is on the side of this ratio going back to the 40-45 level (relatively fairly soon in my opinion).
On the chart of this ratio, a head and shoulder pattern has developed. Below I have illustrated this on the silver/gold ratio instead.
As you can see there is a reverse head and shoulder pattern developing. The price has broken through the neckline, has come back to test the support of that neckline, and is ready to take off to the target of 0.022 or alternatively stated as 45.45 in terms of the gold/silver ratio. What is also interesting is that this pattern is almost a replica of the extremely bullish pattern on the silver chart.
These are all good signs for silver as well as for gold going forward, since gold’s nominal (fiat) price normally rallies when silver’s gold price rallies.
Why is the case for silver so extremely bullish today?
To get to this reason, one has to know what silver is. If one does not know what silver is then one will not understand what will drive the world’s great silver rush.
Silver has many uses, possibly superior to any metal or at least the equal of any. However, there is one use that makes the other uses virtually immaterial. That use is silvers’ use as money. Here we specifically refer to money’s feature called: store of value.
Now however, silver’s use as money is not quite as active as it used to be. Silver was demonitized many many years ago. Therefore the paragraph above, though true, is not quite an “active truth”. Silver’s investment demand, which is a measure of its demand as a store of value, is significantly smaller than demand for industrial and other application. If silver has realised its true destiny as money, it should be the other way around; investment demand should be relatively much bigger than demand for industrial and other application.
What is the event or circumstance that will activate silver’s use as money, especially its use as a store of value?
That event or series of events (building up possibly to a main event) is the collapse of the current monetary system. As I have written before, the monetary system is extremely fragile and there have been clear signals that it should likely collapse under the weight of the high debt levels today, as it has in the past.
Over the next couple of years, as these events are unfolding and causing people to search for an alternative to fiat currencies, the time will come, and now is, that silver’s investment demand will explode and will eventually take the price of silver to $ 100 and beyond, and hopefully to where no fiat price exist.
Below is a chart of silver:
I have highlighted two patterns on the chart, to illustrate my fractal analysis. Both are marked by 4 points to illustrate how they are similar. The scale of the second pattern is bigger than that of the first, so if the rest of the pattern plays out the same as the first, then we should have a big rally that has started already at point 4 (the one on the right side). The first target is the resistance line as indicated on the chart.
If you would like to know more about my fractal analysis you can purchase my Gold or Silver Fractal Report at $ 50 (R 350) each. For more details contact me via email (below).
I am so confident of my gold and silver analysis that I offer to refund your money should gold not hit $1300 dollars by 31 July 2010 or Silver $21.50 also by 31 July 2010.
***
If you find this information useful, please forward it to friends or family so that I can continue to reach people that would not normally read such informative sites as this one. If you would like to subscribe to my newsletter please send me an email. My newsletter is free and I send it out whenever I have something to “say”. I do accept donations though, so that I can continue to research and write; email me for how.
To read more of my work you can read the rest of my blog: http://blogs.24.com/hubertmooolman
May God bless you.
Hubert Moolman
http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1271684225.php
I'm not convinced that the second chart is one of an inverse head-and-shoulders, but I agree with most of the essay, and I agree with hist price target (believing that Ag will return to one day's average wage).
Silver The Most Bullish Currency
By: Hubert Moolman
Gold appears extremely bullish in most of the world’s currency. Probably more than it has ever been in the last 30 years. However, there is one currency in which gold is looking really bearish.
That currency is none other than the world’s other true currency called silver. The outlook for silver as a currency is as bright as it has ever been; in fact, in my opinion, there is no currency that will match silver over the next couple of years
Below is a long term chart of the gold/silver ratio, which translates to the silver price of gold.
The current price of ounce of gold in real money is about 62.95 ounces of silver. If you look at the long term chart you will see that the highest price was about 100 ounces of silver and the lowest about 14; this is quite a ridicules fluctuation in the ratio between two of the most stable metals and forms of money on this planet. This big fluctuation is not a reflection on gold or silver’s instability, but it is indicative of the flawed monetary system we have today.
What one can also see on the chart is that the ratio has strong resistance around the 80 level and there is good support at the 45 – 50 level. The ratio has been range bound for almost 2 decades between the above mentioned support and resistance.
Notice that even during the market crash of end 2008; the ratio did not successfully breach the 80 level, despite silver being really weak. After falling back to 60-61 since the crash of 2008, the ratio has tried to challenge the 80 level again but has failed twice (can be seen on a short term chart) at the 70 level. This is a bad sign for gold’s price in silver and it is an indication that the momentum is on the side of this ratio going back to the 40-45 level (relatively fairly soon in my opinion).
On the chart of this ratio, a head and shoulder pattern has developed. Below I have illustrated this on the silver/gold ratio instead.
As you can see there is a reverse head and shoulder pattern developing. The price has broken through the neckline, has come back to test the support of that neckline, and is ready to take off to the target of 0.022 or alternatively stated as 45.45 in terms of the gold/silver ratio. What is also interesting is that this pattern is almost a replica of the extremely bullish pattern on the silver chart.
These are all good signs for silver as well as for gold going forward, since gold’s nominal (fiat) price normally rallies when silver’s gold price rallies.
Why is the case for silver so extremely bullish today?
To get to this reason, one has to know what silver is. If one does not know what silver is then one will not understand what will drive the world’s great silver rush.
Silver has many uses, possibly superior to any metal or at least the equal of any. However, there is one use that makes the other uses virtually immaterial. That use is silvers’ use as money. Here we specifically refer to money’s feature called: store of value.
Now however, silver’s use as money is not quite as active as it used to be. Silver was demonitized many many years ago. Therefore the paragraph above, though true, is not quite an “active truth”. Silver’s investment demand, which is a measure of its demand as a store of value, is significantly smaller than demand for industrial and other application. If silver has realised its true destiny as money, it should be the other way around; investment demand should be relatively much bigger than demand for industrial and other application.
What is the event or circumstance that will activate silver’s use as money, especially its use as a store of value?
That event or series of events (building up possibly to a main event) is the collapse of the current monetary system. As I have written before, the monetary system is extremely fragile and there have been clear signals that it should likely collapse under the weight of the high debt levels today, as it has in the past.
Over the next couple of years, as these events are unfolding and causing people to search for an alternative to fiat currencies, the time will come, and now is, that silver’s investment demand will explode and will eventually take the price of silver to $ 100 and beyond, and hopefully to where no fiat price exist.
Below is a chart of silver:
I have highlighted two patterns on the chart, to illustrate my fractal analysis. Both are marked by 4 points to illustrate how they are similar. The scale of the second pattern is bigger than that of the first, so if the rest of the pattern plays out the same as the first, then we should have a big rally that has started already at point 4 (the one on the right side). The first target is the resistance line as indicated on the chart.
If you would like to know more about my fractal analysis you can purchase my Gold or Silver Fractal Report at $ 50 (R 350) each. For more details contact me via email (below).
I am so confident of my gold and silver analysis that I offer to refund your money should gold not hit $1300 dollars by 31 July 2010 or Silver $21.50 also by 31 July 2010.
***
If you find this information useful, please forward it to friends or family so that I can continue to reach people that would not normally read such informative sites as this one. If you would like to subscribe to my newsletter please send me an email. My newsletter is free and I send it out whenever I have something to “say”. I do accept donations though, so that I can continue to research and write; email me for how.
To read more of my work you can read the rest of my blog: http://blogs.24.com/hubertmooolman
May God bless you.
Hubert Moolman
http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1271684225.php
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Re: Silver The Most Bullish Currency
Silver is looking very good technically. RSI has plenty of room on the upside to run, the MACD has remained positive through the correction and the stochastic is trending upwards with a positive cross.
When you consider the spotlight that JPM has on them as it relates to the CFTC investigation, they may not do what they normally do, i.e. sitting on the price by selling blocks of futures in order to absorb the buying. Add into this Obama's pre-emptive strike on Goldman in order to push forward the financial reform package, the continued nonsense in Euroland and the massive deficits in the US.
What you are left with is strong buying pressure with a limited amount of supply at current price levels. In an honest market, supply is made available by higher prices and that is what we may just see in silver going forward - a more honest market. It will definitely be a big test of what Obama's true intentions are - and help clear up the political roadmap we will be traveling upon in the coming months/years.
I agree with Sinclair in that the drama unfolding in Europe is simply MOPE that is designed to keep attention away from the real problem, i.e. the looming bankruptcies of dozens of US state governments on a scale that completely dwarfs Greece. God forbid if that reality becomes center stage in the worlds media.
The fundamentals are very friendly to silver. As a result, I am 100% bullish at the moment.
Silver is looking very good technically. RSI has plenty of room on the upside to run, the MACD has remained positive through the correction and the stochastic is trending upwards with a positive cross.
When you consider the spotlight that JPM has on them as it relates to the CFTC investigation, they may not do what they normally do, i.e. sitting on the price by selling blocks of futures in order to absorb the buying. Add into this Obama's pre-emptive strike on Goldman in order to push forward the financial reform package, the continued nonsense in Euroland and the massive deficits in the US.
What you are left with is strong buying pressure with a limited amount of supply at current price levels. In an honest market, supply is made available by higher prices and that is what we may just see in silver going forward - a more honest market. It will definitely be a big test of what Obama's true intentions are - and help clear up the political roadmap we will be traveling upon in the coming months/years.
I agree with Sinclair in that the drama unfolding in Europe is simply MOPE that is designed to keep attention away from the real problem, i.e. the looming bankruptcies of dozens of US state governments on a scale that completely dwarfs Greece. God forbid if that reality becomes center stage in the worlds media.
The fundamentals are very friendly to silver. As a result, I am 100% bullish at the moment.
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Re: Silver The Most Bullish Currency
COMEX May Silver options expire tomorrow and the 1st delivery notice for silver futures is April 30, this upcoming Friday. In months past, this has been when price has been shoved downwards to keep options from closing in the money and to discourage people from taking delivery on physical metals. It will be interesting to see what happens today and tomorrow... the majority of options are at the $18 level, so if past history is any indication, we can expect price to close below $18 tomorrow and be held below it through the end of this week.
COMEX May Silver options expire tomorrow and the 1st delivery notice for silver futures is April 30, this upcoming Friday. In months past, this has been when price has been shoved downwards to keep options from closing in the money and to discourage people from taking delivery on physical metals. It will be interesting to see what happens today and tomorrow... the majority of options are at the $18 level, so if past history is any indication, we can expect price to close below $18 tomorrow and be held below it through the end of this week.
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Re: Silver The Most Bullish Currency
If i had free 100$ (Hypothetical impossible all would be in gold/silver miners..) i would put 50% in AGQ and 50% in DZZ end of the day ..
Anyway keeping the finger crossed for HL earnings tommorow a 10% swing on upside is possible with great earnings and with silver crossing 18.50 tommorow. Both possible ..
If i had free 100$ (Hypothetical impossible all would be in gold/silver miners..) i would put 50% in AGQ and 50% in DZZ end of the day ..
Anyway keeping the finger crossed for HL earnings tommorow a 10% swing on upside is possible with great earnings and with silver crossing 18.50 tommorow. Both possible ..
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Re: Silver The Most Bullish Currency
Strange day for silver...
On the one hand, it was very noteworthy that price wasnt shoved below $18 for option expiration. That is the first time in a while that has happened. Is that a signal that JPM has decided to back off since they are under scrutiny by the CFTC?
Gold showed incredible strength, rising in the face of a rising dollar, but, silver couldnt figure out whether to follow the market lower or gold higher. Schizophrenic.
Was JPM active in the market today, but, rebuffed by massive silver buying? Were they trying to take advantage of the market falling to try to shove silver downwards below $18, but, unsuccessful because of massive buyers trying to keep pace with gold? The answer is that I dont know. The COT report may shed some light on this.
The mining shares didnt follow the market. They held up very well.
Interesting times we are living in. The very foundations of the global financial system are trembling, being held together by the monetization of debt and competitive (and coordinated) currency devaluations as well as by interest rate swaps that are under increasing stress. You thought the repercussions from the credit default swaps were severe - you havent seen anything yet. What do you think is going to happen when those IRS's are called to perform? Why is there no mention in the media about this?
Those that are proponents of "sell in May and go away" for the precious metals complex may end up regretting that decision.
We are in wave 5 of 1 of MAJOR THREE and gold is going to $1350ish and silver will test the previous highs above $21.
Strange day for silver...
On the one hand, it was very noteworthy that price wasnt shoved below $18 for option expiration. That is the first time in a while that has happened. Is that a signal that JPM has decided to back off since they are under scrutiny by the CFTC?
Gold showed incredible strength, rising in the face of a rising dollar, but, silver couldnt figure out whether to follow the market lower or gold higher. Schizophrenic.
Was JPM active in the market today, but, rebuffed by massive silver buying? Were they trying to take advantage of the market falling to try to shove silver downwards below $18, but, unsuccessful because of massive buyers trying to keep pace with gold? The answer is that I dont know. The COT report may shed some light on this.
The mining shares didnt follow the market. They held up very well.
Interesting times we are living in. The very foundations of the global financial system are trembling, being held together by the monetization of debt and competitive (and coordinated) currency devaluations as well as by interest rate swaps that are under increasing stress. You thought the repercussions from the credit default swaps were severe - you havent seen anything yet. What do you think is going to happen when those IRS's are called to perform? Why is there no mention in the media about this?
Those that are proponents of "sell in May and go away" for the precious metals complex may end up regretting that decision.
We are in wave 5 of 1 of MAJOR THREE and gold is going to $1350ish and silver will test the previous highs above $21.
Re: Silver The Most Bullish Currency
""You thought the repercussions from the credit default swaps were severe - you haven't seen anything yet""
No doubts about it, with hundreds of trillions bet and leverage of 100 to 1, one wrong calculation and it's game over. You really only need around 1-2% failure rate to bring down the whole house something no one envisioned when most were written.
No counter party risk here.....,LOL
""You thought the repercussions from the credit default swaps were severe - you haven't seen anything yet""
No doubts about it, with hundreds of trillions bet and leverage of 100 to 1, one wrong calculation and it's game over. You really only need around 1-2% failure rate to bring down the whole house something no one envisioned when most were written.
No counter party risk here.....,LOL
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Re: Silver The Most Bullish Currency
Here is the link to this weeks The Silver Mining Report. I hope you will review the final page of the report and consider the other options.
http://bullion-master.com/the-silver-mining_report-4.28.10.pdf
Here is the link to this weeks The Silver Mining Report. I hope you will review the final page of the report and consider the other options.
http://bullion-master.com/the-silver-mining_report-4.28.10.pdf
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Silver is looking very, very bullish.
We have cleared the fib levels from the move down to sub $15, we have a clearly defined uptrend, the technical indicators have plenty of room to move upwards and the fundamentals are acting as a strong wind against our backs. This is much different than the first time we were at this level a few years back. Back then, the speculation was rampant and sky high. This time, there is so much fear (even among the bugs) that skittishness reigns. This bodes well for silver to continue to rise - slow and steady - stealthily.
I am intensely curious as to how high we go with this wave (wave 5 of 1 of MAJOR THREE). Wave 5's sometimes extend which could take silver to ????? I would be interested in any thoughts any of you have on this.
I believe the parabolic phase for this move is imminent. We might be seeing the beginning of it now. This isnt the BIG one - just a snack in this bull run.
Can you tell I am bullish right now?
We have cleared the fib levels from the move down to sub $15, we have a clearly defined uptrend, the technical indicators have plenty of room to move upwards and the fundamentals are acting as a strong wind against our backs. This is much different than the first time we were at this level a few years back. Back then, the speculation was rampant and sky high. This time, there is so much fear (even among the bugs) that skittishness reigns. This bodes well for silver to continue to rise - slow and steady - stealthily.
I am intensely curious as to how high we go with this wave (wave 5 of 1 of MAJOR THREE). Wave 5's sometimes extend which could take silver to ????? I would be interested in any thoughts any of you have on this.
I believe the parabolic phase for this move is imminent. We might be seeing the beginning of it now. This isnt the BIG one - just a snack in this bull run.
Can you tell I am bullish right now?
