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ttazzman

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The trend is your friend...until it isnt...

interesting chart......


...why a 4 hr one......a 1 hr one would yield different results.....and would a 24hr one.....etc......why do you feel 4hrs is significant enough to post?? .......are you trading on 4hr windows???......are you considering 4hrs a trend establishing time period??

very curious here...
 

Strawboss

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interesting chart......


...why a 4 hr one......a 1 hr one would yield different results.....and would a 24hr one.....etc......why do you feel 4hrs is significant enough to post?? .......are you trading on 4hr windows???......are you considering 4hrs a trend establishing time period??

very curious here...
Its because we are pressing on downside resistance on the monthly chart (shown below) and it definitely bears watching...a 4 hour chart gives you about the past 6 weeks worth of price action - which is sufficient for shorter term moves as it gives you the "sense" of what the market is doing... When I am actually getting ready to place a trade - I will progressively drill down until I get what I am looking for (good entry with a nearby level to place a stop).

Anyways here is the monthly...its showtime for the bulls...they either put up or give up the ghost...

Untitled.jpg

Here is another view of the monthly with the Fibonacci retracement levels drawn in from the inception of the bull market to the peak in 2011. Notice that price respects those fib levels pretty nicely. Experience has taught me that silver often times will seek out the 78.6% fib level - which on this chart is at $14 - and yes - that is the basis of my long term estimate of $14 being the potential low of this multi year correction...

Untitled1.jpg

And finally - here is a potential scenario that gives the bulls a short term victory but still meets my bigger picture price objective...

Untitled2.jpg

Sorry for the small pics - not sure why its happening...
 
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Scorpio

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I am quite upset by having my stop hit the other day. It has cost me and I wont repeat that mistake again of publicly posting where I place my stops...
Straw,

Please understand at least this,

It doesn't matter if you yell it from the rooftops, or put your stops secretly away in a safe...........those who need to know have all the intel they need on your butt,

ie, they know exactly where your stops are, and everyone elses, and that is who makes the real money,

the guys between the buyers and the sellers,

your are gamed, I am gamed, we all are gamed,

it is part of playing in that sandbox,
 

Strawboss

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Scorp,

I know you are right.. it still pisses me off though...

Straw,

Please understand at least this,

It doesn't matter if you yell it from the rooftops, or put your stops secretly away in a safe...........those who need to know have all the intel they need on your butt,

ie, they know exactly where your stops are, and everyone elses, and that is who makes the real money,

the guys between the buyers and the sellers,

your are gamed, I am gamed, we all are gamed,

it is part of playing in that sandbox,
 

Godswill

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Strawboss, will you consider expanding your services to include marijuana stocks. I think they will be profitable for quite a while, we could use your skills. I'm willing to subscribe. Sorry off topic.
 

d-lod

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Its because we are pressing on downside resistance on the monthly chart (shown below) and it definitely bears watching...a 4 hour chart gives you about the past 6 weeks worth of price action - which is sufficient for shorter term moves as it gives you the "sense" of what the market is doing... When I am actually getting ready to place a trade - I will progressively drill down until I get what I am looking for (good entry with a nearby level to place a stop).

Anyways here is the monthly...its showtime for the bulls...they either put up or give up the ghost...

View attachment 58139

Here is another view of the monthly with the Fibonacci retracement levels drawn in from the inception of the bull market to the peak in 2011. Notice that price respects those fib levels pretty nicely. Experience has taught me that silver often times will seek out the 78.6% fib level - which on this chart is at $14 - and yes - that is the basis of my long term estimate of $14 being the potential low of this multi year correction...

View attachment 58140

And finally - here is a potential scenario that gives the bulls a short term victory but still meets my bigger picture price objective...

View attachment 58141

Sorry for the small pics - not sure why its happening...




Great charts and visuals, I agree with the more downside remaining, but the only thing I have doubt, that even people like Bernanke has some intelligence. The 5000 years old financial DNA, will not accept non gold based printing and it will revolt.

Hunts' days are over and the smallest town is linked with global affair. So those whoe live in rural china, india, brazil, africa, afghanistan are not going to part with their gold and CB will have to run with burning tail.
 

Strawboss

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Its fascinating to me that silver price is sitting right on the underside of the downtrend line on the monthly chart...and there is the referendum in Crimea this weekend.

It stands to reason that the downtrend on the monthly is a VERY STRONG level of resistance. And that it would take a VERY BIG external driver to push price up and through that level of resistance.

I ponder whether the situation in Ukraine has the ability to be that driver...and the obvious answer is that yes - it does...

Will it? Who knows...

I am thinking about buying an option straddle here (buying puts and calls). Havent decided yet as there is a 3rd scenario where price just sort of meanders sideways...(not likely - but definitely possible)...

Considering the carnage in copper - I am actually very impressed with silvers performance. Basically what I think is happening is that gold is trying to drag silver higher - and copper is trying to drag silver lower...your classic tug of war. I think Ukraine is driving gold higher and China is dragging copper lower.

Technically - gold needs a monthly close above the $1435ish level to be convincing on the longer term charts and it does seem possible that we are headed for a test of that. Whether it succeeds or not...who knows...

Also have to keep in mind that in this market - gold normally leads and then silver plays catch up at the end of the move...

Just thinking out loud...hope no one minds....if anyone has any thoughts to share on this subject - please feel free...
 

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My post at the link below has more about copper, but this quote is my view on the impact a falling copper price will have on the price of silver.

Dr. Copper has a new prescription, and it does not look bullish for some markets, but I continue to think silver will be an exception. The recent price plunge in copper will translate to reduced output from copper mines, and probably also from mines of other base metals. Since approximately 70% of new silver production is byproduct from base metal mining, the supply of new silver will drop sharply along with the reduced base metal mining output. As other factors continue to push the demand for silver higher, at the same time that the supply of silver drops, the resulting higher prices will create a vise to squeeze the silver shorts. The timing is uncertain, but I think accumulating silver below $25 will prove to be very profitable.
http://www.goldismoney2.com/showthr...current-levels&p=700988&viewfull=1#post700988
 

Strawboss

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For any newbies to the thread...Weatherman doesnt post very often...but, when he does - you would be wise to pay very close attention to what he says...

Just sayin'
 

jelly

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mining stocks have broken out of their consolidation trends on strong volume.
Looks like we are indeed heading higher. Mining stocks always lead the metals.

I will be adding to my miners in the morning.
 

Strawboss

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Ol' Scorp may end up being right...

Although silver has yet to breakout on the monthly chart - I am hard pressed to imagine a scenario where silver continues to be restrained if gold keeps rising...and with the referendum this weekend in Crimea and all the bluster going on...its going to be hard for either side to back down now...

I wouldnt want to be short silver going into this weekend...
 

southfork

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Ol' Scorp may end up being right...

Although silver has yet to breakout on the monthly chart - I am hard pressed to imagine a scenario where silver continues to be restrained if gold keeps rising...and with the referendum this weekend in Crimea and all the bluster going on...its going to be hard for either side to back down now...

I wouldnt want to be short silver going into this weekend...
I agree Boss, Im expecting to see liftoff Sunday nite.
 

Weatherman

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The 3/18 edition of Ed Steer's Gold and Silver Daily had this comment:
And just as a matter of interest, of the 1,851 silver contracts issued this month, JPMorgan has stopped 1,275 of them---a hair more than two thirds. That's more than 6 million ounces they've taken delivery of so far in March---and if they're buying it and taking delivery hand over fist, so should you.
I have been watching the JPM accumulation of silver too. In the full month of March 2013, JPM stopped (i.e., took delivery of) 970 contracts of silver. With a week and a half remaining in March 2014, JPM has already taken delivery of a third more than in March 2013. If JPM did not take these deliveries, it is likely that the price of silver would be significantly lower. I continue to think that JPM acts as a proxy (prostitute?) for the FED, and I see the JPM accumulation of deliveries as confirmation that the FED does not want silver to be cheaper than it is now. They must recognize that lower prices encourage deep pocket buyers of physical to accumulate more, so my guess is that the FED wants prices to rise modestly over time. YMMV so DYODD.
 

jelly

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Does JPMorgan act as a medium for some clients? I mean, don't some clients take delivery through JPM? I thought I heard this explained somewhere, but I don't know enough of the inner-workings to know for sure.
 

Weatherman

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Does JPMorgan act as a medium for some clients? I mean, don't some clients take delivery through JPM? I thought I heard this explained somewhere, but I don't know enough of the inner-workings to know for sure.
COMEX reports issues and stops daily and monthly. In those reports, they show the JPM client (C) in one line, and the JPM house (H) in a different line. Here is a screenshot of the JPM-H account which is stopping most of the silver issued in March. Below that is the JPM-C account which frequently trades in the opposite direction from the JPM house account:

JPM-H.jpg
JPM-C.jpg

My guess is that the issues and stops clients make through JPM are reported as JPM-C, but the issues and stops by JPM for its in house account are reported as JPM-H. The numbers Ed Steer and I are focused on are the stoppers this month by JPM-H. I think those are in line with the desires of the FED because a multitude of other banks more or less stay out of the way when JPM-H stops or issues contracts. That could be a phenomenal coincidence, but I think it more likely that the other banks are "encouraged" to not compete with JPM-H.
 

Scorpio

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I am hard pressed to imagine a scenario where silver continues to be restrained if gold keeps rising
and now with gold getting a correction, this isn't helping the weaker sister at all,

waking up this am and seeing it down 50 in silver is bad for the health :0)
 

Thecrensh

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That's good stuff, Weatherman...thanks for bringing it to our attention.

The 3/18 edition of Ed Steer's Gold and Silver Daily had this comment:


I have been watching the JPM accumulation of silver too. In the full month of March 2013, JPM stopped (i.e., took delivery of) 970 contracts of silver. With a week and a half remaining in March 2014, JPM has already taken delivery of a third more than in March 2013. If JPM did not take these deliveries, it is likely that the price of silver would be significantly lower. I continue to think that JPM acts as a proxy (prostitute?) for the FED, and I see the JPM accumulation of deliveries as confirmation that the FED does not want silver to be cheaper than it is now. They must recognize that lower prices encourage deep pocket buyers of physical to accumulate more, so my guess is that the FED wants prices to rise modestly over time. YMMV so DYODD.
 

Strawboss

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I want it to return to bull mode as much as anyone else...but, I am still pessimistic on it and think that $14 is definitely possible... 50-60% chance by my guesstimation...

and now with gold getting a correction, this isn't helping the weaker sister at all,

waking up this am and seeing it down 50 in silver is bad for the health :0)
 

Strawboss

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Remember what I have said about 4 candlesticks in a row and what that means? We now have 4 red ones in a row. So - we are in a confirmed downtrend which means that rallies will be sold. Rallies typically last about 2 units of time (in this case days) but can sometimes go 3 days. This will continue until we get a previous swing high taken out or we get 4 up days in a row.


silvertoday.jpg

Red channel = downtrend
Green channel = uptrend
 
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Ahillock

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I want it to return to bull mode as much as anyone else...but, I am still pessimistic on it and think that $14 is definitely possible... 50-60% chance by my guesstimation...
What do you think of as far down as $8 as Silver Art has been saying?
 

Strawboss

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There is no scenario I can envision where silver drops to $8/oz.

Now - that doesnt mean it couldnt happen...the silver market has taught me a level of humility that few others experience...I am simply saying that I cant imagine a scenario that takes silver that low.

What do you think of as far down as $8 as Silver Art has been saying?
 

jelly

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Things aren't looking good for the metals sector at the moment.
-Silver went under its break-out level of $20.50 last week, and is now under $20.
-Mining stocks had a failed break-out.

Looks very clear to me that we are going to have a rough few weeks/months ahead. The only question is how low do we go? Silver needs to stay above $19 for there to be hope, and above the $18.xx lows lest all hope be lost. If it goes under $18, we may see a suicidal plunge. I sure hope we only go sideways from here. March options expiration might give us a low, we will have to see.

I sold call options on my mining shares this morning to lock in gains without selling my miners. I went with the April expiration with the hope that this will be only short-lived.
 

Thecrensh

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Funny story. A few weeks back as PMs began to rise, I put a low-ball bid for some coins on Bullion Direct's "Nucleo Exchange". I figured the metals were rising and it would be unlikely that I would get those prices. Well...today I get some emails. Ooops. I had totally forgotten about those bids. Thank God I'm smart with my money and don't live paycheck to paycheck!!!

LESSON LEARNED


Things aren't looking good for the metals sector at the moment.
-Silver went under its break-out level of $20.50 last week, and is now under $20.
-Mining stocks had a failed break-out.

Looks very clear to me that we are going to have a rough few weeks/months ahead. The only question is how low do we go? Silver needs to stay above $19 for there to be hope, and above the $18.xx lows lest all hope be lost. If it goes under $18, we may see a suicidal plunge. I sure hope we only go sideways from here. March options expiration might give us a low, we will have to see.

I sold call options on my mining shares this morning to lock in gains without selling my miners. I went with the April expiration with the hope that this will be only short-lived.
 

Strawboss

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$19.08ish is last months low. Silver is currently retracing last months gains.

Couple of ways of playing this...

If you are looking to get long - consider an entry where your stop loss will be set at about $19.05. Price is currently falling - so its a function of how much risk are you willing to carry? Will you buy now and be ok with a 3-4 percent loss from current levels? Will you wait to see if price falls further so you can get closer to the stop loss level I am mentioning? Up to you...

There is no assurance from me that the previous low ($19.08 last month) will hold - so its a speculative play with a well defined profit/loss assessment.

Personally - I think silver has a lot of pressure on it pressing it down. The biggest one is what is going on in China and the impact it is having on the copper market. While Weatherman is right that depressed copper prices will curtail production over the medium term - and since a lot of silver is produced as a byproduct of copper mining - that would have an impact on the supply side...the reality is that in the short term - falling copper prices are a dead weight around silvers neck.

I feel really bad talking bad about silver knowing that many that read this thread are bullish on silver and positioned accordingly. I too am heavily invested in physical silver with a long term view that sees prices substantially higher. No one is more desirous of a high silver price than myself. But - we have to be objective in our thinking and see present realities for what they are - irrespective of how we wish them to be...

The reality is that silver has been a dog for quite some time. Scorp thinks I am fighting the last war - and he very well may be right (I wouldnt bet money against his wisdom and experience) - I am just trying to share what I think the charts are telling me (and they look bad)...

Silver needs to mount a rally above $22 to get me interested in a bullish scenario. Until then - its a dog that is meant to be shorted on every rally with an expectation of diminished returns the further it falls. My "back of the napkin" prognostications say that $14 silver is potentially possible (but I cant imagine prices much less than that).

If you are considering buying physical - I would suggest buying some now - but, to also hold back some funding so you can stagger your purchases over the next several months with an expectation of holding onto those physical purchases for some number of years.

I look forward to the day when I can proclaim my bullishness on silver...I really do.
 

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I believe your right Strawboss in reading the charts. Silver still looks and acts very weak and heavy. As opposed to some of the worthless companies that never go down, but that's another story. Both Martin Armstrong and a person who studied his system Larry Edelson have been calling for lower prices for some time. Armstrong has silver not switching to long-term bearish until closing monthly below $14.55. If we remember back to the last large run it spent tons of time $17.50 area and broke out from the $18.50 or so area. I drew a chart a long time ago thinking that we needed to retest that price (when it was $26 on the way up) of course I vastly underestimated that breakout but perhaps we still need to retrace all of that move. I think we could briefly go below that but I will start buying around that area (I hope).
 

Fjpod

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But if a lot of silver is produced as a by-product of copper mining, and copper mining is down, won't this depress the supply of silver, at least for the short term?
 

Strawboss

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It will take some number of weeks/months before decisions are made to curtail the production of copper (silver).

That is why I describe it as a "medium term" driver of silvers price. In the short term (measured in days/weeks) - copper will be a weight around silvers neck.

But if a lot of silver is produced as a by-product of copper mining, and copper mining is down, won't this depress the supply of silver, at least for the short term?
 

Spectrism

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I like silver.... as an asset to collect. I get nervous when silver goes up. Silver going up sharply means the system is about to crash. I have been glad to get more time and as prices drop, I will find ways to add a few more ounces to the party.

Playing the markets- whether stocks of metals.... it is a paper game fraught with market manipulations. Drops in prices are times to stock up and put away. It really wouldn't bother me to see silver reach: $12.06

As of today, 3-26-2014, anything under $19 (current price is $19.82) is a chance to keep adding... a little at a time. If you already have a fair amount, watch and wait. This time around, there may be a short window when physical is available in the lower prices.
 

jelly

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As of today, 3-26-2014, anything under $19 (current price is $19.82) is a chance to keep adding... a little at a time. If you already have a fair amount, watch and wait. This time around, there may be a short window when physical is available in the lower prices.
If silver goes too far below $19, we could see a waterfall event taking it much lower. If $19 is your buy point, you might want to wait for much lower prices. IF it gets that low. Until we get below $19.05 as strawboss says, we are still in a correction of this upmove, just like gold is correcting from its upmove.
 

Thecrensh

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Thanks to you guys for keeping one of the most informative PM threads on this website active...and interesting...and relevant!!!
 

Fjpod

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I'm sorta new to stacking, but not to investing. I have made a lot of money investing in stocks, but in one way and one way only... dollar cost averaging over time. Any time I took advice or played out hunches, I lost. It has been proven that throwing darts at stocks on a dartboard is more likely to give a higher yield than following the choices of mutual fund experts.

Theorizing which way silver is going based on what it did yesterday is just a fool's game... but it's fun to talk about.
 

jelly

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Here's an excellent analysis on the current market:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt032814.html

Take a look especially at his US T-bond video. The precious metals have closely followed US bonds over the past couple years. Now bonds are looking like they are going to have another move higher, especially given the extreme negativity on US bonds. If the metals continue to follow bonds, then silver and gold should start getting some traction soon.

The metals by themselves look, at the worst like they are due for a bounce, but if we are currently in the next wave that takes us to $3000 gold and $150 silver, then we should be putting in a bottom here. I especially like how volume has been decreasing as silver declines. This is very bullish for silver since volume would be increasing on the declines if silver were still in a bear market.
 

Strawboss

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Bought at $19.80. Lets see if we can get a bit of a bounce. Pretty tight stop... I am expecting a rally lasting for a few days...not much more than that.
 

Thecrensh

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I've added a little to my holdings as well...but just above $21. It would be nice to have this low ebb hang around a couple of weeks...just saying.

Bought at $19.80. Lets see if we can get a bit of a bounce. Pretty tight stop... I am expecting a rally lasting for a few days...not much more than that.
 

Strawboss

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That was a really short trade...Stopped out...

Silver is so weak it struggles to even stage a rally when it is oversold....

If it doesnt get something going on pretty soon - you might see it fall through the floor...
 

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DSLV is looking like a good hedge right now. I own plenty of USLV for when the inevitable moonshot comes. But today I will buy DSLV and if we are head lower sell DSLV after 18.50 is broken and settles at $16 and then buy back ultra cheap USLV. Same thing for an increase in the spot price, should we go higher probably won't break $22 at that point sell USLV and load up on DSLV.

I am long term bull and do see a moonshot coming just not this year.

DISCLAIMER: Leveraged paper derivatives are very risking and can cause significant paper losses. They are like a casino, just a gamble on a direction of a particular market. Only risk capital should be used when "investing" in these instruments and in case you don't know already the safest bet is owning the physical metal.
 

jelly

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I like what I see today. Now the question is this just a bounce before we head lower, or is this small correction over with...
I'm leaning toward the 2nd option, but I need to do some more research first.