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Thecrensh

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I've said it before, and I'll say it again; I don't mind if PMs drop even lower for a couple more months before they head to "da moon". ; )
 

krugger3

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Strawboss Quote: Silver is so weak it struggles to even stage a rally when it is oversold....

Truer words were never spoken.
 
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No offense taken. Perhaps I am the one in the minority which makes sense to me because most people on this board (and other gold and silver boards) are bullish. Fair enough. That does not change my stance on what gold and silver will do in the near future. Just have to agree to disagree and revisit this at a later date.



Oops!!! I did not mean to poke at the PM bulls here. I have a few silver art bars beside my computer to look at/fondle. My "Marilyn" silver art bar is also nearby just in case I want to see her pose. :)
I am currently bearish. I will remain that way until Silver settles into the $15.00 area. From there I think it will move side ways for a while before starting a slow & steady incline.
 

Mr Paradise

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It has been proven that throwing darts at stocks on a dartboard is more likely to give a higher yield than following the choices of mutual fund experts.
When something like 80% off all mutual fund managers can't beat an S&P 500 index fund it's awful hard for me to take these $100 Ag guys too seriously. I hope they prove me wrong and you guys make a killing but I'm in the small bear (flatline) camp.
 

Tinbox

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That was a really short trade...Stopped out...

Silver is so weak it struggles to even stage a rally when it is oversold....

If it doesnt get something going on pretty soon - you might see it fall through the floor...
“Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.” ― Sun Tzu
 

Weatherman

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I am currently bearish. I will remain that way until Silver settles into the $15.00 area. From there I think it will move side ways for a while before starting a slow & steady incline.
Since Lakeside and Silver Art have made the effort to show us ALL :sarc: of the technical detail which forms the basis for their “Wait & Hope & Pray” (WHP) strategy for getting lucky with a much lower price to buy silver, I feel empowered to offer a different wait and hope approach of my own. Note that despite their frequent posts elsewhere about how “sure” they are about much lower prices of silver ahead, both have explicitly confirmed that they are not willing to bet one cent on their “Wait & Hope & Pray” approach, so readers might want to agree with them that their WHP approach is worthless and bet the same nothing on the WHP imaginary and unfounded opinions.

In contrast, for full disclosure, I have been 100% long not too long ago, but now I am slowly accumulating cash by saving new funds so I will have dry powder for new purchases over the next few months. The active May silver contract will go into delivery late this month, and my guess is that the Banksters will work to keep prices contained in a boring sideways channel over the next six weeks to minimize any enthusiasm to take delivery of silver. The window from late May to early August is also a time when silver is typically in the summer doldrums, just before it stages a sharp rally into the end of the year. We haven’t seen that pattern much over the last two years, but the underlying forces that produce the pattern are still there, so a strong rally from July or early August into December is a good possibility.

The best part of a strong silver rally this year will not be the profits we will make, but it will be the sounds of silence from the humiliated WHP brigade! :haha:
 

Silver Art

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Since Lakeside and Silver Art have made the effort to show us ALL :sarc: of the technical detail which forms the basis for their “Wait & Hope & Pray” (WHP) strategy for getting lucky with a much lower price to buy silver, I feel empowered to offer a different wait and hope approach of my own. Note that despite their frequent posts elsewhere about how “sure” they are about much lower prices of silver ahead, both have explicitly confirmed that they are not willing to bet one cent on their “Wait & Hope & Pray” approach, so readers might want to agree with them that their WHP approach is worthless and bet the same nothing on the WHP imaginary and unfounded opinions.

In contrast, for full disclosure, I have been 100% long not too long ago, but now I am slowly accumulating cash by saving new funds so I will have dry powder for new purchases over the next few months. The active May silver contract will go into delivery late this month, and my guess is that the Banksters will work to keep prices contained in a boring sideways channel over the next six weeks to minimize any enthusiasm to take delivery of silver. The window from late May to early August is also a time when silver is typically in the summer doldrums, just before it stages a sharp rally into the end of the year. We haven’t seen that pattern much over the last two years, but the underlying forces that produce the pattern are still there, so a strong rally from July or early August into December is a good possibility.

The best part of a strong silver rally this year will not be the profits we will make, but it will be the sounds of silence from the humiliated WHP brigade! :haha:
Weatherman, we will have to agree to disagree. I feel the way that I feel about silver and I will not back down from my stance on silver. As for me "betting", fair enough. I got out of the internet betting business on December 31, 2011 when I won my bet against Ponce on the price of silver in 2011. If you do not know what I am talking about, then you will have to search the containment forum to get your answers there. I do not know how to trade futures and I am not interested in futures trading if that is what you mean by "betting" and I will admit that. FWIW I have physical silver (silver art bars only) and I plan to buy silver art bars (mostly '70's silver art bars) because it is my hobby. I do not consider this to be an investment for me. I enjoy what I do and I will continue to buy silver art bars regardless of what spot silver does. Silver art bars is the ONLY type of silver that I will buy because that is what I like to collect. I am not afraid about spot silver going down to $8 within 3 years from now which I feel will happen. If/When that happens, I will just continue to do what I have been doing for the last 5+ years and that is find and buy '70's silver art bar that I am interested in adding to my collection.

With that said, I am bearish on silver but it is just a gut feeling on silver. Nothing more nothing less. See my sig line. To be honest, nobody knows what will happen with the price of silver. ALL (including you Wetherman) are just making guesses. The only difference is that your guess is supposedly more "educated" than mine which that is fine but it is still a guess nevertheless. Even though I am just a collector, I do watch the markets and I just see things that you cannot necessary put on a chart. I do not mind you (or anyone else for that matter) disagreeing with me. Like I said, I have to just agree to disagree with you and we will have to revisit this at a later date.

EDIT: Sorry for continually editing my post. I had a lot to say and was trying to express myself in the best way possible. :)
 
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....
In contrast, for full disclosure, I have been 100% long not too long ago, but now I am slowly accumulating cash by saving new funds so I will have dry powder for new purchases over the next few months.

The active May silver contract will go into delivery late this month, and my guess is that the Banksters will work to keep prices contained in a boring sideways channel over the next six weeks to minimize any enthusiasm to take delivery of silver.

The window from late May to early August is also a time when silver is typically in the summer doldrums, just before it stages a sharp rally into the end of the year. .....a strong rally from July or early August into December is a good possibility.

:haha:
I agree that silver will drop further as I have shared, however I am not as bold as you to predict when it will happen & when it will rise again. I applaud you for putting your neck out like that.

So it's your recommendation that "dry powder' is held on to for another month or so then get in & enjoy the profits it will bring by Nov-Dec area? Any thoughts on what the price levels may be during this cycle?
 

Weatherman

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I agree that silver will drop further as I have shared, however I am not as bold as you to predict when it will happen & when it will rise again. I applaud you for putting your neck out like that.

So it's your recommendation that "dry powder' is held on to for another month or so then get in & enjoy the profits it will bring by Nov-Dec area? Any thoughts on what the price levels may be during this cycle?
Please do not misquote me. I have NOT recommended anything. I only shared FWIW my game plan, with the reasoning behind it, as a contrast to a WHP approach based only on gut feel and guesswork. I can guess how high or low prices might go, but it would be little more than a guess (based on my interpretation of the charts), so I have no desire to mention those numbers. I would not have posted anything, but your quote of Silver Art, and your assertion that "Lakeside says silver WILL drop to $15", repeated in this respected and technical thread, moved me to counter your negative vibes with a few positive thoughts of my own. You and Silver Art have your own threads about how low can it go. It would be better if you confine your baseless assertions to those threads (where we do not need to read them if we prefer to not see it all again), and to post in a respected and technically oriented thread when you have something more useful than "Lakeside says . . ." to add. Cheers :cheerful:
 
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Please do not misquote me.
I have NOT recommended anything. I only shared FWIW my game plan, with the reasoning behind it, as a contrast to a WHP approach based only on gut feel and guesswork.
I can guess how high or low prices might go, but it would be little more than a guess (based on my interpretation of the charts), so I have no desire to mention those numbers.
I would not have posted anything, but your quote of Silver Art, and your assertion that "Lakeside says silver WILL drop to $15", repeated in this respected and technical thread, moved me to counter your negative vibes with a few positive thoughts of my own.
You and Silver Art have your own threads about how low can it go. It would be better if you confine your baseless assertions to those threads (where we do not need to read them if we prefer to not see it all again), and to post in a respected and technically oriented thread when you have something more useful than "Lakeside says . . ." to add. Cheers :cheerful:
I don’t see where I misquoted you at all. If I have, please indicate so. I posted once in this thread before you responded to me.

When I found this thread I had read through it & liked it right away. I found the quote below from the OP, from this I felt encouraged to contribute & will do so moving forward.



Why hope not?

The deeper the better....

Stretch your thinking...always push to understand whatever is next...

Be fearless and unfraid of being wrong (we usually are)...

That is when the best learning happens...(at least in my experience).

PS - dont confuse being fearless about being wrong with just being wrong and stupid about it...HUGE difference between the 2.

What I am describing is a mindset of courage...The courage to dig into things that are not pleasant...or popular...the courage to face the truth...no matter how ugly and unattractive it is...

Hope that makes sense.
 

Silver Art

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I apologize to Strawboss, Weatherman and others here. I got carried away with my bearish statements on silver. I will leave this thread and bump up my Debbie Downer thread when I feel necessary to do so. Sorry for any trouble that I might have caused on this thread and others like it.
 

Strawboss

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While you guys are arguing - I have taken a long position in silver $19.82 - with a pretty tight stop. Trying once again to see if I can get something positive out of it...

Scalping...
 

Strawboss

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Since this is my thread - I feel the right to weigh in on the recent discussion between Weatherman and Silver Art guy and perhaps others...

I have no problem with people either being bullish or bearish... that is what makes a market after all...

Would prefer (and I use that word deliberately since ultimately - you can do whatever the hell you wish) that if you post a prognostication/projection/opinion/guess, etc... please provide some rationale for it.

Being willing to state the thought process behind your reasoning/conclusion will benefit all of us to better see what it is that you see...

Hope that makes sense...
 

jelly

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Hey fellas, great to see some of the old crew still battling the Evil Empire, Best of luck Strawboss/Weatherman/Hawk/Krugger/Scorpio and everyone else!!!!!

Goog!!!!!
Haven't seen Joegoog in a long time. Looks like the party is about to get started reminiscent 2008 - Fast money if you were on the right side of the trade!
 

Strawboss

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Hey Joegoog - if memory serves me correctly - arent you the guy that rode Seabridge all the way up to close to $40 and got out at just about the right time?
 

Strawboss

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Now lets see if I can make some money on this one.....

While you guys are arguing - I have taken a long position in silver $19.82 - with a pretty tight stop. Trying once again to see if I can get something positive out of it...

Scalping...
 

Weatherman

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Strawboss

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Stopped out...again...
 

fat panther

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Posted by Scorpio in "COT Breakdown" thread here at GIM

COT Breakdown
Dan Norcini

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Another Friday - another release of the Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC - let the entrail reading begin in earnest!

A caveat before we begin - the report only covers trading through the end of the combined pit and screen session on Tuesday of the current week. It therefore does not take into account the price action from Wednesday through the close of trading on Friday.

On Tuesday of last week ( 3-25-2014) gold closed at $1311.40. On Tuesday of this week, it closed at $1280 for a loss ( Tuesday - Tuesday ) of $31.60.

Here is what happened over that time period. Hedge funds were big sellers once again - therefore it should come as no surprise to see the price move lower. They bailed out of over 8000 long positions and added over 5500 NEW SHORT positions. The net impact was that they were sellers of some 13,687 contracts.

The other reportables, which include the big floor locals, CTA's, CPO's and other large private traders were also big sellers on the week. Their combined NET SELLING amounted to 4,724 contracts. By the way, this includes both futures and options combined for the funds and this other big group of speculators.

The combined selling of these large specs was 18,591 contracts.

The big commercial category were NET BUYERS on the week as were the Swap Dealers ( WHOOPS - there goes the theory of the evil bullion banks manipulating the price of gold lower). The combined NET BUYING from both these camps amounted to 14,858 contracts.

The balance was made up by the small spec category which were NET BUYERS of some 3,553 contracts.

In other words, we had the biggest speculators in the market selling with the commercial interests buying as price lost that $31.60.

This has been the pattern in gold since early 2001, more than a decade ago.

In some gold bug circles much ado was made about the big open interest drop in gold that occurred early in the week as if it was somehow a hugely significant market event and portended something big was about to happen in the gold market. As usual the hype, while amusing to read, was not based on anything remotely resembling reality. Guess what - April gold was entering its delivery period and many traders who were SPREAD using that month lifted their spreads.

The total number of spreads lifted was - are you ready for this? - 51,299 contracts ( futures and options combined). As you can see, that outnumbers the amount of actual buying and selling of outright positions by more than 3:1.

Remember this the next time some breathless article is written about some big open interest drop, especially if the market is entering a delivery period.

Where do things stand now ( as of this Friday)? As stated in a previous post, gold has had a nice bounce off an important chart support near the $1,280 level. I strongly suspect that the big rally off of $1280 has had more to do with short covering on the part of the hedge funds which stuck on some of those fresh shorts noted above. Without having the actual data in front of me ( we will need to wait until next Friday ( April 11), I would hesitate to be too dogmatic about this, but I would not look for the move over the last three days of this week to be characterized by a wave of brand new, aggressive long positioning.

Gold held where it needed to hold on the charts to prevent another leg lower and that ability to stay firm near $1280 has sparked another round of short covering. Now we need to see where the bulls can take this thing as the new week begins. There should be some overhead resistance centered near the $1320 level and again near $1340. If they can take it through both levels, I think we will see more aggressive short covering again and some new longs coming back in.

The key will be the Dollar and the US interest rate markets. There could also be some safe haven buying of gold if the US equity markets start looking shaky. We did get some of that in the recent past so it would not be unexpected to see it again if the selloff in the equity markets worsens.

Another way of saying this is that the bulls have regained some short term momentum. Whether or not they can capitalize on it is unclear. The charts will make it clear in their own time. In the meantime, stay flexible. Each new piece of economic data, whether from the US or from the Euro Zone or from China, is going to swing prices accordingly. I would suggest no one who is trading take too large of a position because it can reverse on you faster than you can blink. The name of the game right now is to survive. Let the computers chop up someone else besides you! Don't be the one providing them the funds for their extravagant lifestyles. Let them suck it out of someone else - blasted infernal leeches that they are.

As the reader can probably tell - I loathe what these computers have done to my profession. Mindless, unthinking machines ( in contrast to we carbon-based life forms known as discriminating human beings ) shoving markets all over the place, oftentimes without rhyme or reason, is in many quarters hailed as more efficient markets. I don't know whether to laugh in contempt or to weep with sadness over how shortsightedly blind our nation has become.

I have seen enough of the carnage these computer generated price moves can inflict on legitimate hedgers looking to offset risk to have had my complete fill of them. Sadly, it is here to stay and we have to learn to adapt to them in order to survive and prosper.

Dan Norcini is a professional off-the-floor commodities trader bringing more than 20 years experience in the markets to provide a trader's insight and commentary on the day's price action. His editorial contributions and supporting technical analysis charts cover a broad range of tradable entities including the precious metals and foreign exchange markets as well as the broader commodity world. He is a frequent contributor to both Reuters and Dow Jones as a market analyst for the livestock sector and can be on occasion be found as a source in the Wall Street Journal's commodities section as well as CBS Marketwatch where his views on the gold market can often be found. He is also an avid beekeeper.

www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.mx

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/privat...breakdown.html
 

jelly

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...I sold call options on my mining shares this morning to lock in gains without selling my miners. I went with the April expiration with the hope that this will be only short-lived.
The call options I wrote on my mining shares expired worthless over the weekend. This is like getting nice dividends on stocks that don't pay dividends. With the lackluster performance in silver, I'm considering selling more options another month out.

As time goes on, the more I agree with strawboss. Silver is looking extremely week. Ever since the beginning of 2013, silver has been putting in lower highs. Couple that with the fundamentals: strong deflation in Europe and slowing of inflation in china, as well as withdrawal of QE here in the US. Things do not bode well for silver at the moment.
Even the speculators have been exiting their positions in the mining shares, in case you couldn't hear the giant sucking noise coming from the miners.

As much as I want the metals to blast off ASAP, it appears we really need a catalyst for the metals to return to a bull market. Heck, there isn't even a good chance of a short covering rally at this point. Though I hope I'm wrong.
Geez, someone give me some good news on silver.
 

grooveboi

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The call options I wrote on my mining shares expired worthless over the weekend. This is like getting nice dividends on stocks that don't pay dividends. With the lackluster performance in silver, I'm considering selling more options another month out.

As time goes on, the more I agree with strawboss. Silver is looking extremely week. Ever since the beginning of 2013, silver has been putting in lower highs. Couple that with the fundamentals: strong deflation in Europe and slowing of inflation in china, as well as withdrawal of QE here in the US. Things do not bode well for silver at the moment.
Even the speculators have been exiting their positions in the mining shares, in case you couldn't hear the giant sucking noise coming from the miners.

As much as I want the metals to blast off ASAP, it appears we really need a catalyst for the metals to return to a bull market. Heck, there isn't even a good chance of a short covering rally at this point. Though I hope I'm wrong.
Geez, someone give me some good news on silver.
The good news? Well at least there seems to be some consensus of negativity; that usually portents a bottoming soon.
Peace,
groove
 

Strawboss

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Gonna try the short side again...entry at $19.63 stop at $19.75.

Let's see what happens...
 

Strawboss

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So of course price rises...takes out the stop and then declines...
 

pitw

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And declines some more.

Do they do the rise thingy to knock out players like you? Just asking cause I know nothing.
 

Strawboss

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Yeah - it happens...sometimes more than others... but - there are times where you get a good entry and can ride a 10-20% move which more than pays for all the small losses that this sort of activity causes...

And declines some more.

Do they do the rise thingy to knock out players like you? Just asking cause I know nothing.
 

Strawboss

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Couple of thoughts...

1. This is silver we are talking specifically about - so you sort of have to be a bit crazy in the first place...
2. Related to #1 - yes - its a form of gambling...
3. You are describing fundamentals - which I care nothing about. I trade purely on the technicals.

Not debasing your point - as there is some merit in it...but, if you take your thought process to the logical conclusion - no one would trade anything because there will always be the counterparty risks to deal with...

I follow this thread and enjoy the discussion. I'm curious as to why individuals still trade futures since the MF Global bankruptcy. It's always been a casino but, fraud and regulator corruption is now obvious. Neither Jon Corzine or anyone else have been prosecuted for the illegal use of customer's segregated funds.

Would anyone care to explain why they're still in?
 

Weatherman

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This weekend, Trader Dan has interesting (but mildly bearish) comments about silver.

http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2014/05/silver-comments.html

My guess is that silver could stay in a narrow sideways channel with a low around $18.20 and a high around $20.20 until the typical summer low in July (give or take a few weeks). My guess at a sideways channel is shown in my chart below. Note that this is only a guess, so DYODD because silver does not care much about where I draw lines on my charts.

SILVER weekly.jpg
 

southfork

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At this juncture in time Russia could Nuke the Ukraine and silver would go down along with gold, Im considering shorting slv this week.
 

ToBeSelfEvident

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Strawboss, who is the target in the game of moving the metal prices wherever they want them? It's the technical trader. They know exactly which way you'll jump when they apply a little jolt.
 

Thecrensh

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Still one of my favorite threads on this board...thanks guys for making the mud more clear for the rest of us unwashed masses. ; )
 

blueice

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My best guess, that Ag will be flat or down
10 to 15% for the year.

Not much better for Au.

The set up for gains are coming, albeit
not until 2017 or 2018.
 

jelly

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Strawboss

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How low will gold go?

My "guess" and it is just that...a GUESS...is we will see it down about $1000 or so. This would obviously occur at the same time that silver gets down to about $14ish...

I would strongly urge caution in the coming days/weeks...technically its looking pretty weak....

Gold broke through its support a couple days ago, but silver is looking somewhat decent.
My question is how low will gold go...
However, I don't understand why gold is falling in the first place. The US economy shrunk as of the latest report. I would have thought it would be good for gold:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-29/dollar-falls-as-u-s-economy-shrinks-for-first-quarter-since-11.html?cmpid=yhoo
 

Oldmansmith

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Thanks Boss, my Mom just gave me some money to buy gold/silver for her. I HATE buying for other people, but being that she is Sainted Mom and all...

I was thinking of holding off before your post anyway, seeing the weakness today.
 

southfork

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How low will gold go?

My "guess" and it is just that...a GUESS...is we will see it down about $1000 or so. This would obviously occur at the same time that silver gets down to about $14ish...

I would strongly urge caution in the coming days/weeks...technically its looking pretty weak....
Are you going short boss??
 

Strawboss

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I am definitely looking to get a short position on if silver can mount any sort of a rally...so far - it hasnt been able to.

News that China is cracking down on the use of copper to fund loans. I remember previous ZH articles about how the underlying collateral had been used multiple times and then subsequently sold. I think that is a mess with potential to really slam the price of copper downwards - not to mention new home building in the dumps...

I have said before - it is highly unlikely that silver will find strength while copper is being taken to the woodshed. Not impossible...but, highly unlikely.

Are you going short boss??
 

Usury

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The call options I wrote on my mining shares expired worthless over the weekend. This is like getting nice dividends on stocks that don't pay dividends. With the lackluster performance in silver, I'm considering selling more options another month out.

As time goes on, the more I agree with strawboss. Silver is looking extremely week. Ever since the beginning of 2013, silver has been putting in lower highs. Couple that with the fundamentals: strong deflation in Europe and slowing of inflation in china, as well as withdrawal of QE here in the US. Things do not bode well for silver at the moment.
Even the speculators have been exiting their positions in the mining shares, in case you couldn't hear the giant sucking noise coming from the miners.

As much as I want the metals to blast off ASAP, it appears we really need a catalyst for the metals to return to a bull market. Heck, there isn't even a good chance of a short covering rally at this point. Though I hope I'm wrong.
Geez, someone give me some good news on silver.
I presume you mean that you SOLD call options earlier? Is that the same as a PUT?
 

Ahillock

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I am definitely looking to get a short position on if silver can mount any sort of a rally...so far - it hasnt been able to.

News that China is cracking down on the use of copper to fund loans. I remember previous ZH articles about how the underlying collateral had been used multiple times and then subsequently sold. I think that is a mess with potential to really slam the price of copper downwards - not to mention new home building in the dumps...

I have said before - it is highly unlikely that silver will find strength while copper is being taken to the woodshed. Not impossible...but, highly unlikely.

Isn't falling copper prices good for silver prices? Falling demand and prices for copper mean this mines close and will affect supply for silver for all those mines that pull up silver with the copper.