• "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding high finance, politics, constructionist Constitution, and mental masturbation of all types"

Silver

Unca Walt

Midas Member
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 15, 2011
Messages
8,568
Likes
11,591
Location
South Floriduh
I find it hard to believe in the dollar getting stronger under any circumstances, the rest of the world is quickly moving from the dollar as a means of trade.
I'm whichoo, southfork: The dollar is RAPIDLY being destroyed by multiple nations -- governments/businesses that are simply just flat DONE with Dollar Imperialism. Oil dollars are almost history. Even fargin ENGLAND is joining the outflow to rubles, yuan, whatever. Without the prop of petrodollars...
 

Ahillock

A nobody
Mother Lode
Joined
Apr 30, 2013
Messages
12,478
Likes
12,026
Location
GIM2 server bay #5
^ I agree the dollar is going down the crapper but it might just be the shiniest turd. Doesn't mean much at that point, but the PhD's will try to sell us on that. The dollar is done for. Just a matter of when, not if IMO.
 
Joined
May 23, 2014
Messages
142
Likes
150
Just popping in for a quick cup of coffee:

Looking left at where we've been...

It appears we are on a downward trend...

As far as the weekly goes...
NOT.

Aren't you the one calling for silver never to reach $19 again in another thread last month?

August.... or perhaps the end of the year would be even better yet.

Or anytime the following year, or the year after, or the... since we may not see $19 for quite some time (I'm thinking 20 years).
http://www.goldismoney2.com/showthread.php?65642-Buying-time&p=736771#post736771


Those trendlines you draw are crap trendlines, too. Silver Cluck:



silver.jpg
 
Last edited:

Silver Buck

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Oct 22, 2010
Messages
2,378
Likes
1,477
Location
Western Shores of Lake Erie
Aren't you the one calling for silver never to reach $19 again in another thread last month?
Ayep, that is me. So I was wrong, for the moment, about the exact price of Silver for the immediate future. I'm still bearish on Silver, especially since the Weekly has been showing lower highs and lower lows for quite some time.

And I didn't use the word 'never', I said it would be quite some time before we saw $19 Silver again. Go ahead, mortgage the house and go all in on Silver today if you are that bullish on the stuff.

Myself, I'll sit back and watch the show for the next year or so.
 

southfork

Mother Lode Found
Mother Lode
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
16,010
Likes
15,066
Silver will most definitely go up today and tomorrow, theres a good coin show on the 4th of July, Ive yet to see prices fall before I go to a show.

Ayep, that is me. So I was wrong, for the moment, about the exact price of Silver for the immediate future. I'm still bearish on Silver, especially since the Weekly has been showing lower highs and lower lows for quite some time.

And I didn't use the word 'never', I said it would be quite some time before we saw $19 Silver again. Go ahead, mortgage the house and go all in on Silver today if you are that bullish on the stuff.

Myself, I'll sit back and watch the show for the next year or so.
 

Silver Buck

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Oct 22, 2010
Messages
2,378
Likes
1,477
Location
Western Shores of Lake Erie
Ah, but I bet the price would fall if you were setting up as a vendor. It's the 'Curse of the Metals' where the price plummets just after a major purchase or rises just after a major sale.

Why do we punish ourselves so!
 

Strawboss

America...Love it...or GTFO
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
4,191
Likes
6,691
Location
Metro Detroit area
As I mentioned...the current situation with silver has something for the bulls and the bears...lol

I saw this posted on ZH in the comments and thought it was worth sharing...very interesting.

Nostradamus: (Cent. 8 Quat. 28)

Les simulacres d'or & argent enflez,
Qu'apres le rapt au lac furent gettez
Au desouvert estaincts tous & troublez.
Au marbre script prescript intergetez.

Translates as:

The copies of gold and silver inflated, (ETFs)
which after the theft were thrown into the lake, (Boating Accidents)
at the discovery that all is exhausted and dissipated by the debt. (We are screwed)
All scripts and bonds will be wiped out. (First by inflation...then by deflation)...
 

bemac

Midas Member
Midas Member
Joined
Nov 5, 2010
Messages
5,432
Likes
4,485
I find it hard to believe in the dollar getting stronger under any circumstances, the rest of the world is quickly moving from the dollar as a means of trade.
That's more long-term thinking, and investors when faced with a massive crash in stocks will be short-term thinking, the dollar should rise as investors run toward their favorite safe haven. I do think gold will rise, too, and that's going to puzzle many folks. It'll rise because there will be enough investors who see two things; one, the crash in the stock markets and resulting further increase in unemployment and general market downturn as evidence the central banks don't know wtf they're doing, and two, the Fed has to keep inflating because the increase in the value of the dollar means an increase in the value of our $17 trillion debt and the downturn in the economy equals less tax revenue meaning even bigger debts.
 

tradeshack

Seeker
Seeker
Joined
Dec 6, 2011
Messages
178
Likes
101
That's more long-term thinking, and investors when faced with a massive crash in stocks will be short-term thinking, the dollar should rise as investors run toward their favorite safe haven. I do think gold will rise, too, and that's going to puzzle many folks. It'll rise because there will be enough investors who see two things; one, the crash in the stock markets and resulting further increase in unemployment and general market downturn as evidence the central banks don't know wtf they're doing, and two, the Fed has to keep inflating because the increase in the value of the dollar means an increase in the value of our $17 trillion debt and the downturn in the economy equals less tax revenue meaning even bigger debts.


Similar to what was experienced from May 2011 through July 2012 as the flight to dollars out of euros gave dollar strength that not even TPTB could see coming. Unfortunate then, that it delayed the gold money revolution.


Flight to Dollars.jpg
 
Last edited:

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
1,979
Likes
1,632
So far SLV (the silver substitute) has been walking the line. An extremely aggressive support line I must say. Without another SUPER GO-GO day that surges her up by, say, a dollar.. it seems very unlikely that this can last. The pressure seems intense, but the believers are keeping her above the line.

Question is, if/when she falls below that line, what is the likely punishment? Will the second, original support line hold?

Here are the options:
1) aggressive support line holds, silver gets a GO-GO day as the MO-MO players climb on board. The tension is eased by massive success. (Soros and Buffett to the rescue).
2) aggressive support line fails, but the original support line holds. We go up, but not so fast.
3) original support line fails, too. Down we go. Silver, forever pushing that boulder up the hill...

Any thoughts?
 

Attachments

Weatherman

In GIM since 2006
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
2,799
Likes
3,211
This is a good summary of my views, so i hope he is right! :s1:

Sean Rakhimov: Upward Trend a Silver Investor's Friend

The Gold Report: The Washington D.C.-based Silver Institute reports that net silver demand has exceeded net silver supply each year since 2004, with a supply deficit of 113 million ounces (113 Moz) reported in 2013. Why hasn't that trend translated into dramatically higher silver prices?

Sean Rakhimov: First, I don't put much faith in these numbers. For instance, CPM Group has somewhat different numbers. Either way, silver supply and demand have been roughly in equilibrium, in my opinion, over the past decade or so. Second, silver manifests itself as a precious metal in times of crisis or uncertainty. When it's business as usual, silver acts more like a base metal and trades more on supply and demand numbers. Silver prices will respond during a crisis as its perception changes from an industrial to precious metal. That's when you will see more of what we saw in 2011 when in the space of about six months silver went up three times. Another period like that is coming.

TGR: In early June we started to see stronger precious metals prices and that has carried through. Is this a trend?

SR: It is the beginning of a trend. Precious metals characteristically start going up after a prolonged decline, yet early in the reversal they rarely inspire any confidence because the last dozen or so similar moves fizzled after a 10�20% move. This could be one of those. Silver is at $21 per ounce ($21/oz) now, maybe next week it will test $18/oz again. It's anybody's guess but I believe that toward the end of the year we'll probably see higher numbers�maybe substantially higher.

TGR: Is there a telltale sign that shows investors that this upturn is real?

SR: There isn't one that I use. It's more of a gut feeling.

TGR: The existing silver fix mechanism expires on Aug. 14, 2014, and methods to replace it are currently being reviewed by the London Bullion Market Authority. Is a new silver fix system likely to yield stronger silver prices?

SR: It's likely. This new replacement for the silver fix would, at least for the next year or two, have less tinkering with it than had historically been going on with the fix. On that basis, the price should become more volatile. On balance it's probably going to be positive for the silver price.

TGR: What are your thoughts on the silver space?

SR: In this semi-stealthy firming up of silver instruments and investments, there is not much fanfare. Silver is certainly out of favor at the moment, which leads me to remember that it's always darkest before the dawn. And I believe that this is going to reverse itself in short order.

Lately I've been thinking about some passages from the thinly disguised biography of Jesse Livermore, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lef�vre He wrote, "There's a lot of early bulls in a bull market." I've been an early bull in a bull market for precious metals going back to the early 2000s. Many people exit along the way but Livermore's idea was that investors have to stick with it for the entire cycle. That's what I've been telling myself. Of course, convictions are tested along the way, such as during the last couple of years.

Silver is a little like water in that if you tell people you should invest in water, the first thing people do is look at you like something is wrong with you! Yet fresh drinkable water is a scarce resource. Silver is so familiar that it lulls people into this idea that it's not important. Unsophisticated people align it with gold, yet the fundamentals for the two metals could not be more different.

TGR: What makes silver special?

SR: If there is one adjective to describe silver, it's "indispensable." There are no adequate replacements. It is an extremely versatile metal, perhaps the most versatile in the periodic table. Silver can do a lot of good, too. For instance, it is being used more and more in medical implements that come in contact with the human body because silver kills bacteria in single-cell organisms. Silver is also used in the food industry to preserve and process foods like meat and dairy products.

But long before silver was improving our health and food safety, it was the world's currency. The word for silver is synonymous with money in 52 languages.

TGR: In April 2011 silver almost reached $50/oz before undergoing a dramatic correction. Investors' knees would surely start to wobble if we saw those prices again. How would you play those kinds of price gains?

SR: It all depends on the character of the move. Investors have to look at the volume, speed and market sentiment in order to determine the direction at that point.

TGR: What does the next leg up in the silver price look like?

SR: My outlook for silver for the next two or three years is somewhere between $50 and $100/oz. It could be shorter; it could be longer, but that's not critical. I'm going to stay with it for the cycle; it could be another 10 years to the end of the cycle. I do not expect this next leg to be final but I expect it to be a substantial run comparable to 2010�2011 when silver went from roughly $10 to $49.50/oz. The next move could go from about $20 to roughly $100/oz, but that will take time. Am I going to take money off the table along the way? Maybe in some stocks that got ahead of themselves or that are not responding to the price move. But I would not touch any of my physical silver.

TGR: What are the next three key resistance levels for silver?

SR: I think $26/oz will confirm that the trend has reversed. If we exceed $26/oz on good volume and strength, then we're off to the races. From there, the next resistance level would be $30�32/oz. If we reach beyond that level, it becomes $50/oz. And if we take $50/oz convincingly, then there's a good chance that this move is going to have some serious legs.

TGR: The Performance Report on SilverStrategies.com monitors 27 silver equities. Since early June, 26 of them are up, some more than 40%. June is typically a soft month for precious metals equities. What's supporting those bids?

SR: One thing is a possible top in the mainstream market. Another is that precious metals are up roughly 15% in the last month or so and stocks usually have an exaggerated move versus the metal price. And most of these stocks are coming off depressed levels. There was something of a vacuum so stocks tend to jump even on low volumes. Most of the sellers who wanted to sell did. On the flip side, it doesn't take a lot of money to acquire a lot of stocks. Again, this behavior is typical for the beginning of a larger move.
http://www.24hgold.com/english/news...direct=false&contributor=The+Gold+Report&mk=1
 

jelly

Silver Miner
Seeker
Joined
Dec 6, 2010
Messages
831
Likes
579
I don't know about anyone else out there, but this chart just looks beautiful to me. We are currently resting right on the 50 and 200 DMA's, and have bled off the overbought condition with the indicators ready to turn around. Looks like a perfect entry point to me, with a clear place to put your stop loss.
Just screams "BUY ME".
today.png

DYODD
 
Joined
May 23, 2014
Messages
142
Likes
150
Nice, jelly. That chart says a lot.

I am starting to (incrementally on this dip) convert another portion my dry powder/fiat to oz's (I bought a good amount in early June also).

I think we are getting a good pop this week (perhaps today).

Capture.jpg
 

jelly

Silver Miner
Seeker
Joined
Dec 6, 2010
Messages
831
Likes
579
I agree, I'm expecting a pop this week as well.
I purchased some Jan 2015 $20 call options at market open today. I don't like trading options, but given the set up, I think its worth the risk.
 

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
1,979
Likes
1,632
Hey Jelly,

Here is another perspective using SLV as a surrogate for Silver. I do like on your chart that Silver is sitting on the 50 and 200. If that support breaks, yes your stop loss should be kept close.

On my chart you can see that On Balance Volume has broken down from an uptrend, and the SLOW MACD settings that I use show it going under here. Plus using SLOW ICHI, it has entered the cloud. Using my system to try and find a trend, by all the rules, this is in a downtrend.

Still doesn't mean we don't get a bounce, but it gives another view only. Watching what it does vis-a-vis the current support will be enlightening.

dpong
 

Attachments

Joined
May 23, 2014
Messages
142
Likes
150
Yes, alternative view which could carry on for a little while longer - back under $20...

Capture.jpg

Which would make sense since I JUST NOW got SALE emails from both apmex and Jmbullion...
 

jelly

Silver Miner
Seeker
Joined
Dec 6, 2010
Messages
831
Likes
579
Thanks guys. Silver broke below the 50 and 200 DMA's, so I sold part of my call options for a small loss. I do think we get a bounce off $20 (or $19 in SLV), so I 'm holding the remaining options until we get the bounce, or until it goes below $20.

To be honest, I hope we get a few more weeks downside/sideways movement. I would like to pick up some more shares in my favorite juniors before things really take off this fall.
I've been researching Jr's when I have time and haven't found very many quality Jr.'s with sub-$500M market caps with plans for growth over the next 3 years. If anyone knows of any, feel free to enlighten me. Would trade knowledge of my favorites for your favorites!
 

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
1,979
Likes
1,632
Jelly, just did a little math. Most recent low from late May was 18.61. Most recent high was 21.63. A 50% retracement I calculate at 20.12 (21.63-1.51). We are almost there right now. My thinking is that a 50% retracement is not uncommon at all. But a retrace of MORE than 50% is usually not a great sign.

Eh, just some thoughts.

Me, I'm not bullish just at this moment. But I've been conditioned to the fetal position. LOL.
 

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
1,979
Likes
1,632
In the grand scheme of things, which P&F is very good at showing, there just isn't much happening yet. There is still time. No huge hurry. Though I am impatient.
 

Attachments

Strawboss

America...Love it...or GTFO
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
4,191
Likes
6,691
Location
Metro Detroit area
I would be surprised if silver only corrected 50%. Not impossible of course, but, not very likely in my opinion. Now - if it was gold you were talking about - I "might" agree with you - but, this is silver...and 50% corrections just arent in its DNA (I know I am exaggerating a bit here for theatrical effect). Not to mention that we are still in a sustained downtrend going back to 2011.

I am still bearish and havent yet seen anything that would convince me otherwise (although I still look).

Jelly, just did a little math. Most recent low from late May was 18.61. Most recent high was 21.63. A 50% retracement I calculate at 20.12 (21.63-1.51). We are almost there right now. My thinking is that a 50% retracement is not uncommon at all. But a retrace of MORE than 50% is usually not a great sign.

Eh, just some thoughts.

Me, I'm not bullish just at this moment. But I've been conditioned to the fetal position. LOL.
 

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
1,979
Likes
1,632
Great to hear from you, boss.
 

Strawboss

America...Love it...or GTFO
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
4,191
Likes
6,691
Location
Metro Detroit area
Been busy with...life...

Silver will again have its day...keep your eyes on gold too as gold typically leads in the early stages of a new uptrend and silver "catches up" with a vengeance later on...

Gonna start eyeing some attractive miners in the coming months...I think the miners will lead the metals higher and I think sometime in the coming months might be just about right...

Great to hear from you, boss.
 

Weatherman

In GIM since 2006
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
2,799
Likes
3,211
Color me neutral. I continue to see gold and silver as being in a sideways summer funk. I am hopeful I can buy silver with a scale in approach from around $19.50 to below $19. If silver closes higher than $22 first, I will add some then (in case the proverbial train does not return to the station), and wait for another correction to go all in. I think the investment world will pile on with a vengeance when silver closes higher than the weekly downtrend line (currently a little higher than $24). Needless to say, DYODD, but I wanted to say it again anyway.

SILVER  20140805.jpg


GOLD 20140805.jpg
 
Joined
May 23, 2014
Messages
142
Likes
150
If this week (Tues 8/5 anyway) isn't a MT floor for this latest correction, sub-19.50's perhaps. I bought some on Tues and more last night and this morning on the dip when this Iraq bombing crap started...

on edit: Silver seems to hopping on gold's coattails finally, perhaps, after this recent "disconnect"/hammering. How much more (not that I'm hoping for it at all) global strife can there be today/this weekend without a serious uptick in Au/Ag?

Capture.jpg

Capture.jpg

one more on the 30:

Capture.jpg
 
Last edited:

jelly

Silver Miner
Seeker
Joined
Dec 6, 2010
Messages
831
Likes
579
I've been keeping an eye on the COT reports, and gold's COT report is looking much better. Gold shed a significant amount of commercial shorts over the past 2 weeks, and appears ready to blast off.
Silver on the other hand only had a small decrease in commercial shorts over the past 2 weeks. So I think wanderintheland is right in that silver is riding on gold's coattails.

I think we resume the uptrend now, IMHO.
 
Joined
Mar 29, 2010
Messages
1,702
Likes
602
I think they wash out the metals again. Still a bear market at least a cyclical one if not a secular one. Over three years now off the top in Silver.
 

jelly

Silver Miner
Seeker
Joined
Dec 6, 2010
Messages
831
Likes
579
I think they wash out the metals again. Still a bear market at least a cyclical one if not a secular one. Over three years now off the top in Silver.
It's certainly possible. We haven't had a clear breakout from the downtrend, so your right that technically its still a bear.
However, I think what most people forget to look at is the mining stocks. I can't see anything BUT a bottom in the shares. And the shares lead the metals.

Looks like they are attempting to wash out silver since its performing miserably. Gold/silver ratio is climbing fast.
 
Joined
May 23, 2014
Messages
142
Likes
150
Fine by me.

I am buying every dip now, as my finances allow. I will keep buying if goes lower or if it goes higher at this juncture. I bought the majority of my Au/Ag in 2007-2008 (before the markets started crashing) and sold much of it in 2011 not so far from the top (whether luck, gut, due diligence or a combination of them all, everything worked out fine for me) and had not bought since until this late spring. I have the same feeling now as in '08 and am now accumulating again. I am basing my buying now on escalating/accumulating/snowballing geo-political/environmental/financial events (just as before but even more intense) along with long-awaited crossover on the monthly MACD. I am aware the charts are showing a very possible drop to mid and lower 19's in short order - possibly more - but that's OK. I'll buy more if it happens. I'm also very curious if this silver fixing thing on Friday is going to smash it, cut it loose or be a big fat nothingburger.

I'm telling you, TS is about to HTF and I think silver is going to outperform gold even more than the last time and when this ball really gets rolling it's going to roll FAST and PMs are gonna be scarce. I do believe the markets and metals have been and are being manupulated but the particular toothpaste that is economic reality cannot be put back into the tube, no matter how clever TPTB think they are. There has to be a reset. It's mathematics. It's physics. Natural Law.

I'm really feeling "better safe than sorry" more than ever, like in '08.

on edit: not to ring my own cowbell, but I also had substantial puts on Bear Stearns right when they went down and fared pretty good, if that means anything. ;) Also, don't get me wrong - I also lost more money than I cared to lose being a 'permabear' until I finally realized 'they' could kick the can further down the road than I thought..

That said, seems stuck at 61.8 'nacci (19.75ish) for the time being and coiling:

Capture.jpg
 
Last edited:
Joined
May 23, 2014
Messages
142
Likes
150
Backing up the truck. Methinks this trendline will hold.

Screenshot - 08152014 - 08:47:35 AM.jpg

edit: Same trendline on the 15m (it has put pins through but seems to be withdrawing):

Screenshot - 08152014 - 09:03:17 AM.jpg
 
Last edited:

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
1,979
Likes
1,632
It's certainly possible. We haven't had a clear breakout from the downtrend, so your right that technically its still a bear.
However, I think what most people forget to look at is the mining stocks. I can't see anything BUT a bottom in the shares. And the shares lead the metals.

Looks like they are attempting to wash out silver since its performing miserably. Gold/silver ratio is climbing fast.
This is a weekly chart of SLV going back 5 years. I have tried to draw the downtrend line using closing weekly prices, instead of the peaks. That is more conservative and makes this look like less of a 'break-out' than it would had I used the peaks.

So a couple of things to note. First, yes, it is not much of a break-out at this point, not too convincing yet. Second, yes, we are above the downtrend line. Third, it would not take much upside from here to make it look as if it WERE a convincing breakout.

What to expect next? This is simply speculation. It would not be surprising to see us range bound and looking like we are in a box for a period of time. Although a box pattern is typically a continuation pattern, I do not mean it in this sense. Instead I think we may simply expect a somewhat drawn-out bottoming - this is SILVER after all. It doesn't have to be that way, but with silver often it is. Heck, even now we could be backtesting the break-out before moving higher.

Am I talking out of both sides of my mouth? Well, maybe. Heck, this is silver we're talking about. Well, SLV anyway.
 

Attachments

Strawboss

America...Love it...or GTFO
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
4,191
Likes
6,691
Location
Metro Detroit area
Look at the leading edge of the cloud dpong...the red lower border that is currently facing in a downward direction...that is NOT bullish...the current price is below the cloud...that is NOT bullish...

I really hope I am wrong in my projection that silver is going down to $14ish in the coming months...I hope that silver begins to rally upwards and breaks formidably through $26 and then upwards and onwards....I really hope I am wrong. I know that many of you have long positions....and that you are hoping/expecting it to rise...I hope it does too...

Unfortunately...I still see bearish technicals...they are what they are...

But...I hope I am wrong...
 

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
1,979
Likes
1,632
I am a watcher at this point, Strawboss, so if silver went down to 14ish, I would find that to be fascinating. I wish to participate in trends, but not to try and pick bottoms.

Let nothing surprise you. This is my position.
 
Joined
May 23, 2014
Messages
142
Likes
150
Look at the leading edge of the cloud dpong...the red lower border that is currently facing in a downward direction...that is NOT bullish...the current price is below the cloud...that is NOT bullish...

I really hope I am wrong in my projection that silver is going down to $14ish in the coming months...I hope that silver begins to rally upwards and breaks formidably through $26 and then upwards and onwards....I really hope I am wrong. I know that many of you have long positions....and that you are hoping/expecting it to rise...I hope it does too...

Unfortunately...I still see bearish technicals...they are what they are...

But...I hope I am wrong...
Yes, but his MACD also shows The Cross after being in a deep-dive for over a year. True that it could be said that also happened in fall of 2012 (according to his MACD setup), and if one had bought then and held I would have certainly hoped he/she would've sold gotten the message by the first part of 2013.

But I digress...

I know you have been around the block a few times Boss. I remember your old thread in GIM 1. Anyone here would be unwise to not heed your take on this and like dpong said, picking bottoms can be foolish.

That said, I'm placing my bets. I bought a fair amount today and might buy more before Monday (after some more homework) but I've not deployed all of the dry powder. Increments. The world is falling apart every which way from Sunday. I'm not buying silver to get rich, although I consider it a better investment (and safer) than letting my fiat sit in bank savings account and I'm too scared to play with any meaningful amount of money in this teeter-totter fake market, whether I go short or long. I have better things to do. At worst, my accumulated PM's will be valuable for my daughter and granddaughter, which these days is all I'm really interested in anyways. I'm in for the long haul this time.

How much lower can it go? How much higher can this market go? How much more blatant manipulation/bubble-blowing can there be before what is based in fantasy comes crashing down to reality? It's been almost 7 years and fundamentally nothing's changed, except the brazenness of the lies and manipulation. How much more bad news can there be in short order considering we just started Cold War 2.0, there are nasty petulance/plagues on the rise, major domestic discord/disconnect brewing and bubbling over for a variety of reasons, environmental catastrophes (natural AND man-made) of the likes modern man has not seen before, war again in the ME and elsewhere, etc, etc...?

The sh*t smells like Armageddon whatever that means and if there is such a thing. All I know is it's getting overwhelming watching/reading the news anymore. And that's WHAT YOU ARE ALLOWED TO KNOW.

How much lower can 'They' slam silver down? We're already back to late 2010 prices (when many/most were astonished that $20 silver actually happened [again]) and have remained there range bound and coiling for a whole year. What is capitulation? I see tons of people on various precious metals and financial blogs/forums calling silver a dog and that this could go on forever, even long-time silverbugs. Months ago many people at the Sh*tco forums (newbies who bought @ like $30 +/oz mostly) were capitulating and saying they were selling. If 'They' slam silver to $15 in this current environment, does anyone think there would be any silver to buy at that price? Also, there's a reason silver has not remained under $19 for very long every time 'they' tried to push it down that far over this last year.

I digress again, so here's my take on today:

Capture1.jpg

Capture.jpg

EDIT: almost forgot this:

GS-Monetary-Couple-15.jpg

GS-Monetary-Couple-16.jpg
 
Last edited:

Ahillock

A nobody
Mother Lode
Joined
Apr 30, 2013
Messages
12,478
Likes
12,026
Location
GIM2 server bay #5
For how long would the price of silver stay at $14? What about a corresponding <$900 gold? If the paper price is slammed that low, I'm not sure how there wouldn't be a divergence in the physical and paper market. They can price the paper gold and silver whatever they want. I am only concerned about the physical market myself.
 

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
1,979
Likes
1,632
Look at the leading edge of the cloud dpong...the red lower border that is currently facing in a downward direction...that is NOT bullish...the current price is below the cloud...that is NOT bullish...
Careful, Boss, I'm using a slow ICHI with adjusted parameters that I learned with the help of SAGI. It may not be interpretable in the same was as traditional ICHI. I've been doing all of my charts this way lately, just because, but I'm not attaching any specific meaning to the cloud on this one. Except that before you can trend up and through the cloud, you will start from underneath the cloud. Anyway, that 's all I see there.


I really hope I am wrong in my projection that silver is going down to $14ish in the coming months...I hope that silver begins to rally upwards and breaks formidably through $26 and then upwards and onwards....I really hope I am wrong. I know that many of you have long positions....and that you are hoping/expecting it to rise...I hope it does too...

Unfortunately...I still see bearish technicals...they are what they are...

But...I hope I am wrong...
Boss, I'm assuming you are busy with family and responsibilities, so I don't mean to be asking a lot from you here. But in a few words can you describe or give us a feel for what the ongoing negative technicals are? You mention $14 and you probably got that number from somewhere, and mentioned negative technicals, but I don't have a feel for what you are looking at.

Myself, I don't know if this is bottom territory or if we go lower. I'll just wait and see, so I'm advocating neither position. But you are. In a word, why?

Much thanks if you throw us a bone.

dpong

PS. Sorry, I've now gone back and looked at your post from about July 1st. Presumably this is still what you are looking at. Sorry I didn't remember this post when asking for your technicals. Still, if you have an update, we all like to hear your view.

http://www.goldismoney2.com/showthread.php?596-Silver&p=747822&viewfull=1#post747822
 
Last edited:

917601

Mother Lode Found
Mother Lode
Joined
Apr 2, 2010
Messages
11,337
Likes
9,416
With only three confirmed "participants" determining the new Silver pricing, I could assume all charts, cycles, Fib numbers, and waves will be of little help in determining the Silver price. Probably a good thing,with all the experts in the field crying foul, I believe this current system will 'go away" sooner than latter. I personally am looking for the East to develop a believable system, a 'hint" has already been given. The "unit of measure"in the London Silver Price has already been declared to be in "Lahk's", each Lahk is units of 100,000 ounces. This "unit of measurement' is not used in the west.

"Oddly, if you can identify who your orders are to go through, then you have to get the calculator out because Reuters advise that prices are no longer in US dollars per ounce but US dollars per "lakh" or 100,000 ounces ... why ?

The Reuters 'explainer' goes on to state that if the fix is within a 300,000 tolerance then it will fix ... so what happens to the residual amounts - especially if no one steps up to be a "participant" ? And do all the new participants or "fixing members" as they were formerly called all have bilateral credit arrangements so those deals can settle ? I have no
idea."


I do, when the smallest "unit" is 100,000 ounces instead of one ounce, look out below…….
 
Last edited:

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
1,979
Likes
1,632
Here I have attempted to mostly reconstruct Strawboss' monthly chart of Silver that he posted back on July 1st. This was for my own amusement and elucidation. Spoiler Alert: I'm not going to come up with any ground-breaking findings here, but I will work through what I believe that the ICHIMOKU chart says to me, and it does not disagree with what Strawboss was saying that he saw.

On this chart I have used full ICHIMOKU traditional settings, which as I stated previously is not exactly the same as the SLOW ICHI system that I normally use. I have had only minimal instruction on ICHIMOKU traditional so I'm not an expert and I probably lack some of the nuance that a more experienced ICHIMOKU practitioner might bring to the table. However, that said, I immediately took to ICHIMOKU and it all made great sense to me even after only a little bit of exposure to it. I have a hard time remembering all the Japanese-based names of all the lines, so I have gone and looked up the names for this post. I do, however, understand what they mean in the context of ICHI charts.

ICHIMOKU was invented with an eye towards TRENDING. Everything about ICHI and all of the tools (lines, clouds) are CENTERED around the question: Is this price TRENDING? All tools are geared towards quickly determining if a price is TRENDING, or merely RANGING. And the system is brilliant in this regard. IMHO. I love it for that.

I have build my chart using StockCharts.com so it doesn't look exactly like Strawboss' chart of July 1, but it is basically the same. This is a monthly chart of Silver with traditional ICHI settings. These ICHI charts (though actually pretty simple), appear very busy and like a 3-ring circus. For that reason, and because the names of the lines and clouds (spans) are not well known to a western audience, I drew some circles and numbered them so that I can point you to what I'm talking about. Still although simple in concept, it might be difficult to explain. I have heard the explanation of how all the lines and clouds are determined, but I have not memorized that. So I'm not going to be able to explain that very well. What I have focused on is how to USE the lines, not how to create them. Also I numbered the circles not in any particular order, but I suppose I will explain them in the order I have numbered them.

This chart does look very much like Strawboss' chart. First I have drawn a downtrend line (blue dashed line) and tried to use closing monthly prices as the guide. Stockcharts always seems to move the lines a little when I upload the annotated chart, so the line doesn't appear to be exactly carefully drawn, but I did the best I could. I have also drawn what appears to be some short term support, again a blue dashed line, which intersects with the downtrend line near the circle numbered '3'. We can notice one difference from Boss's chart is that the monthly Silver chart has traded and currently sits slightly above the downtrend line. While this gives us some 'hope', I personally would not make too much of it, until we see a convincing move above that line. But objectively, it is a little above the line.

Now, I will attempt to explain by the numbered circles what I think I see and what I think it means in ICHI-land.

1) The tenkan-sen (blue line) crossed below the kijun-sen (red line). I will avoid saying how they are created. However one can think of these like shorter and longer moving averages and use them the same way. The tenkan-sen moves more quickly and kijun-sen moves more slowly. So, when tenkan-sen crossed below kijun-sen it is one indicator of downtrend. In order for us to see Silver in an uptrend, one indicator will be when tenkan-sen crosses upward above kijun-sen, and of course we are a long way from that.

2) The kijun-sen in the short term is moving horizontally left to right. It is not trending (up or down), but moving sideways. This is an indicator that we are currently (ST) ranging, not trending. ICHI is always looking for TRENDING activity - part of why I love it so much.

3) If you look carefully at circle '3' you can see that the tenkan-sen (blue line) has moved from horizontal to pointing downward, just at the end. This is very short term indicative of continuing downtrend. So, tenkan-sen looks at a shorter period of time and shows downtrend. The kijun-sen from circle '2' uses a slightly longer time period and indicates ranging. Both lines are useful and see they are used together.

4) The green line is called the Chikou Span (or Lagging Span). This is really the easiest line to explain because it is simply the price moved backward 26 periods in time. See how it echoes the price chart? That is how this one is built, very simply. In this case it is moved backwards 26 months. The purpose of this line is so that you can look backwards from the current price back to the current price of the Chikou Span and see if there is congestion between the two. Here I have drawn (sloppily) a line that is supposed to be horizontal backwards from the current price (in circle '3') to the current price of the Chikou Span. In drawing this line you can see that there was very much congestion. I mean I had to draw the line through many candlesticks and also through the green cloud in order to reach the Chikou Span. This is a very quick and very easy check to see if you are trending or ranging. In order to be considered trending, you would want a clear clean shot from the current price back to the Chikou Span current price. By definition, if there is a lot of congestion between the two, then you are RANGING and not TRENDING. And this is what Silver is doing now.

5) In this circle I merely highlight the red cloud. In traditional ICHI, the bottom line of the cloud will represent a resistance level. Also, the top line of the cloud will represent another resistance level. In traditional ICHI, one does not get the green-light for entering the trade (with the trend) unless the price has cleared BOTH of these 2 resistance levels. It is in this regard that Strawboss correctly points out that we are below the cloud. It is believed that we will have at least 2 potentially strong resistance levels to pass through before we are safely trending.

6) In circle 6 I highlight one potential positive, that a positive MACD crossover appears to be happening.

Conclusions (what the chart says to me):

In the medium term and extreme short term, Silver is still trending DOWN - see circles '1' and '3'.
In the intermediate term, Silver is ranging sideways - see circle '2'.
Ranging is confirmed by circle '4'.
Silver is below the red cloud and must face some considerable resistance before being considered in an ICHI-defined uptrend - see circle '5'.
MACD crossover give some hope, though it could easily be reversed - see circle '6'.

Finally, ICHI is constructed to be very cautious (and successful) in identifying TRENDS. This is its nature, pure and simple. I see nothing on the chart that tells me whether this is the bottom or not (though I do see some short term support). I see nothing on the chart that dictates to me that the price MUST go lower before a trend can be born.

However, it is clear and simple that Silver is not currently in an uptrend. Indicators are that Silver is still in the downtrend signaled by circle '1', and that short term it is simply RANGING.

Strawboss is right to be cautious here. I hope this wasn't too boring or indecipherable. I like the ICHI very much.

Regards,
dpong

PS. RSI says we are not overbought. Duh!
 

Attachments

Last edited: