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fat panther

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With only three confirmed "participants" determining the new Silver pricing, I could assume all charts, cycles, Fib numbers, and waves will be of little help in determining the Silver price. Probably a good thing,with all the experts in the field crying foul, I believe this current system will 'go away" sooner than latter. I personally am looking for the East to develop a believable system, a 'hint" has already been given. The "unit of measure"in the London Silver Price has already been declared to be in "Lahk's", each Lahk is units of 100,000 ounces. This "unit of measurement' is not used in the west.

"Oddly, if you can identify who your orders are to go through, then you have to get the calculator out because Reuters advise that prices are no longer in US dollars per ounce but US dollars per "lakh" or 100,000 ounces ... why ?

The Reuters 'explainer' goes on to state that if the fix is within a 300,000 tolerance then it will fix ... so what happens to the residual amounts - especially if no one steps up to be a "participant" ? And do all the new participants or "fixing members" as they were formerly called all have bilateral credit arrangements so those deals can settle ? I have no
idea."


I do, when the smallest "unit" is 100,000 ounces instead of one ounce, look out below…….
Help me out here (no sarcasim). Can you explain what you're saying in layman terms to see if I can understand better? I think I got the gest but not sure. Thanks. FP
 

dpong

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FWIW, using all the ICHI criteria discussed above, and showing a Silver daily chart with traditional ICHI settings, in the short term Silver is unambiguously in a downtrend. This is not ranging, this is TRENDING downward.

Stand back, would be my order of the day based upon ICHI sensibilities.
 

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Ragnarok

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"Oddly, if you can identify who your orders are to go through, then you have to get the calculator out because Reuters advise that prices are no longer in US dollars per ounce but US dollars per "lakh" or 100,000 ounces ... why ?
...
I do, when the smallest "unit" is 100,000 ounces instead of one ounce, look out below…….
If dealers initially use this fix number as spot to quote for singles/tens of ounces, silver might be a very good deal for a while, until someone figures it out; at that point the premiums might go higher than what we presently consider "normal".

R.
 

jelly

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IMHO, this is reminiscent of the failed 2012 bull rally. The technicals in gold and silver were clearly saying we were heading higher. However, the miners broke down at the same time everyone was bullish. Those who paid attention to this would have gotten out in advance of the sell-off
Now things have flipped. Looking only at the technicals in gold and silver, you will come to the conclusion that the bear market is still going lower. However, mining stocks are breaking up. This is a clear, yet subtle warning that the trend is changing. Yet no one seems to be paying attention. Just like in late 2012, if you heed this signal, you will be ahead of everyone else. Its just a matter of time before the metals follow the miners and break out.

I'm buying this dip.
 

jelly

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Of note is the COT's
As of This Tuesday, commercials added 25,000 gold shorts, but only added 700 silver shorts.
However, the commercials purchased nearly 4,000 silver longs, and sold 9,000 gold longs.

If you don't follow the COT's, this is bearish for gold, and slightly bullish for silver. Its nothing drastic for silver, but it is a positive note for us bulls.
 
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IMHO, this is reminiscent of the failed 2012 bull rally. The technicals in gold and silver were clearly saying we were heading higher. However, the miners broke down at the same time everyone was bullish. Those who paid attention to this would have gotten out in advance of the sell-off
Now things have flipped. Looking only at the technicals in gold and silver, you will come to the conclusion that the bear market is still going lower. However, mining stocks are breaking up. This is a clear, yet subtle warning that the trend is changing. Yet no one seems to be paying attention. Just like in late 2012, if you heed this signal, you will be ahead of everyone else. Its just a matter of time before the metals follow the miners and break out.

I'm buying this dip.
Also, here's an example of that period (silver chart, not miners) and when I would have sold and/or shorted that period in 2012 had I bought the dip that summer (or bought before and held until this sell area) so as not to incur loss:

Screenshot - 08162014 - 09:34:40 PM.jpg

Screenshot - 08162014 - 09:45:34 PM.jpg
 
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jelly

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Of particular note is the premium on the Sprott physical silver trust has climbed to 4.67%. It has been CLIMBING while silver has been falling. I think this is the first time this year that the premium has been increasing significantly while the price of silver decreased.
This is the highest the premium has been on a dip this year.
 

jelly

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Playing around...

Playing around with a new charting system here...
The bigger view shows we are still above the downtrend line. I don't know how relevant this downtrend line is because it won't be much longer before the downtrend line itself is below silvers 2013 lows...
Silver8-17-2014.png

A closer look with the current downtrend line. Silver was holding nicely ontop of its 61.8% retracement level at $19.7 until Friday when it had a strong break down through that level. So not a good set-up for a bullish trade. Good news for the bulls is that it won't take much to break above this current downtrend line.
silvercloseup8-17-2014.png
 
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Strawboss

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Re: Playing around...

dpong - when the Chikou Span is below the candlesticks - that is an additional type of resistance. When the Chikou Span is above the candlesticks - that is very bullish...

Very nice work guys...I really enjoy coming on and seeing your work, charts, etc...

We all benefit from sharing our experiences, viewpoints, information, etc...
 

dpong

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Re: Playing around...

dpong - when the Chikou Span is below the candlesticks - that is an additional type of resistance. When the Chikou Span is above the candlesticks - that is very bullish...
Yes, that's exactly right. When I went back and saw your monthly chart I was surprised to see you were using the clouds. And pleased!
 

Strawboss

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A bit off topic...

The ebola situation has dominated my thoughts of late... when I consider how it can spread - geometric progression and all that...it seems very, very likely that it is headed here...within a few weeks? A month?

To imagine suicide bombers willing to infect themselves with the virus and then spread it as far and wide as they can...it is unimaginably evil...

Whats the solution? Options? Thoughts?

The potential ramifications of this thing seemingly are about as serious as it gets... (notice I say "potential")
 

Oldmansmith

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A bit off topic...

The ebola situation has dominated my thoughts of late... when I consider how it can spread - geometric progression and all that...it seems very, very likely that it is headed here...within a few weeks? A month?

To imagine suicide bombers willing to infect themselves with the virus and then spread it as far and wide as they can...it is unimaginably evil...

Whats the solution? Options? Thoughts?

The potential ramifications of this thing seemingly are about as serious as it gets... (notice I say "potential")
Don't know what to make of it, obviously a potential disaster. I am far more afraid of my own government (that flew an infected doctor back to the US) than terrorists.

How much lower on silver? I wanna buy some.
 

blueice

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A bit off topic...

The ebola situation has dominated my thoughts of late... when I consider how it can spread - geometric progression and all that...it seems very, very likely that it is headed here...within a few weeks? A month?

To imagine suicide bombers willing to infect themselves with the virus and then spread it as far and wide as they can...it is unimaginably evil...

Whats the solution? Options? Thoughts?

The potential ramifications of this thing seemingly are about as serious as it gets... (notice I say "potential")
Boss, too much work when an explosion will do and
do it with press coverage...

This is just another MSM panic session and should be completely disregarded...Just as long as McDonald does not
start selling McBola burgers, everything will be fine.
 

Strawboss

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There are interests in the world that want more than a sensational attack that provides sizzle - but, little substance...

The opportunity to decimate a world power - using infected suicide bombers - is a threat that should be taken very seriously... I have read musings about whether that is what the purpose of raiding the clinic was where they took all the infected sheets, pillows, etc...

Imagine a scenario where a group of suicide bombers liquiefy an ebola victim and then deliberately infect themselves prior to boarding a plane to the US.

Too far fetched some might say? If these crazies are willing to blow themselves up...why not?

Boss, too much work when an explosion will do and
do it with press coverage...

This is just another MSM panic session and should be completely disregarded...Just as long as McDonald does not
start selling McBola burgers, everything will be fine.
 

Silver Buck

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There are interests in the world that want more than a sensational attack that provides sizzle - but, little substance...

The opportunity to decimate a world power - using infected suicide bombers - is a threat that should be taken very seriously... I have read musings about whether that is what the purpose of raiding the clinic was where they took all the infected sheets, pillows, etc...

Imagine a scenario where a group of suicide bombers liquiefy an ebola victim and then deliberately infect themselves prior to boarding a plane to the US.

Too far fetched some might say? If these crazies are willing to blow themselves up...why not?
Infect themselves, spread the contagion, then blow themselves up thereby destroying any link to 'Patient 0'.

Rinse and repeat.
 
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Free (she has paid subscription site) take on silver from Lara today:


SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th August, 2014
by Lara · August 19th, 2014

Last Elliott wave analysis for Silver expected to see some upwards movement for a second wave correction, but this is not what happened. The first wave moved lower.

I expect now that we shall see downwards movement towards 18.802 to complete a third wave. Notice that since 1st of August Gold has trended sideways (and slightly higher) while Silver has clearly trended downwards. They quite simply do not always have to move together.

I expect that while Gold finishes an ending diagonal (very choppy, generally trending upwards) Silver will complete this downwards impulse and its fourth wave corrections will correspond to Golds upwards waves.

Main Wave Count.
silver18aug14weekly.jpg

Downwards movement subdivides so far as an incomplete double zigzag. This cannot be an impulse if the movement which I have labeled primary wave X is correct as a triangle because a triangle may not be the sole structure in a second wave position.

The first zigzag in the double is labeled primary wave W. The double is joined by a “three”, a triangle, in the opposite direction labeled primary wave X.

The second zigzag for primary wave Y is moving price lower to deepen the correction, and so this structure has a typical double zigzag look in that it has a clear slope against the main trend.

Within primary wave Y the triangle for intermediate wave (B) is now a complete barrier triangle. Movements following triangles, and particularly barrier triangles, have a tendency to be relatively short and brief. The higher target has a higher probability for this reason.

Within primary wave Y at 11.52 intermediate wave (C) would reach 0.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 5.309 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A).

Within primary wave Y intermediate wave (A) lasted 30 weeks, and intermediate wave (B) lasted exactly a Fibonacci 54 weeks. I would expect intermediate wave (C) to end in a total 21 or 34 weeks.

silver18aug14daily.jpg

The triangle for intermediate wave (B) is very likely to be complete.

Intermediate wave (C) downwards should subdivide as a five wave structure, either an impulse (most likely) or an ending diagonal (less likely). At this stage it is far too early to tell which structure may unfold.

Minor wave 1 is incomplete, and it is unfolding as a simple impulse. Within it the middle of a third wave has passed. There are no Fibonacci ratios between minuette waves (iii) and (i), nor any Fibonacci ratios within the subdivisions of minuette wave (iii). This is slightly unusual for Silver.

At 18.802 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i.

Within minute wave iii minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory above 20.735.

Minuette wave (iv) should last about three to seven days in total. It may find resistance at the upper edge of the green channel. Draw the channel using Elliott’s first technique: draw the first trend line from the lows of minuette waves (i) to (iii), then place a parallel copy on the high of minuette wave (ii).

silver18aug14hourly.jpg

Minuette wave (iii) is most likely over, and minuette wave (iv) has most likely begun.

Minuette wave (iv) may end when price comes very close to, or touches the upper edge of the Elliott channel copied over here from the daily chart.

I would expect minuette wave (iv) to end below the end of the fourth wave of one lesser degree.

Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory above 20.735.

Alternate Wave Count.
silver18aug14weeklyalt.jpg

This alternate wave count sees intermediate wave (B) as an incomplete zigzag and not as a complete triangle.

This alternate would expect intermediate wave (B) to break through resistance at the aqua blue trend line. However, this is unlikely and reduces the probability of this wave count to an alternate.

Intermediate wave (B) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (A) above 34.515.

silver18aug14dailyalt.jpg

Minute wave ii may be continuing lower; the structure must be incomplete.

The channel about minute wave ii is drawn using Elliott’s technique for a correction: the first trend line is drawn from the start of minuette wave (a) to the end of minuette wave (b), then a parallel copy is placed upon the end of minuette wave (a). Only the end of micro wave 3 is overshooting the channel, and as this is a third wave that is entirely acceptable, even should be expected.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i below 18.581.

I am still considering this alternate idea because for the main wave count (at the daily chart level) minor wave E of the triangle is such a strong overshoot. Sometimes E waves overshoot the A-C trend line of triangles when they come to an end, but not by that much. It has a slightly strange look.

This wave count requires a new high above 21.579 for confirmation. While price remains below 21.579 the main wave count will have a much higher probability.

At 25.484 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A.
 

jelly

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There's no way I will ever be an Elliot wave student. Waaaayyyy too boring. Very difficult trying to make sense of that, and sometimes I wonder if they understand it all? Not my cup of tea.
 
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Kinda a ghost town in here (not just Silver thread either), along with the 'other' PM forums I visit after todays ass whoopin....

Good sign.

:cool:
 

jelly

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The only thing I need to know about the current correction, is that its been over 3 years now. Times up, bears! You had your fun in the sun.
 

jelly

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Kinda a ghost town in here (not just Silver thread either), along with the 'other' PM forums I visit after todays ass whoopin....

Good sign.

:cool:
You know, the 1970's was well before my time, but I would bet the mid-70's 50% correction was similar to this in regards to activity. Being long at the bottom had to have been a lonely trade.

Personally, I'm getting anxious. I know there's a huge moving coming, and I can't wait for it to get here. I keep telling myself, just hold on until September, it'll be over before you know it, jelly! Its about like playing Jack-in-the-box. Each day its one more turn of the handle...when is Jack gonna come out the box?
 
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You know, the 1970's was well before my time, but I would bet the mid-70's 50% correction was similar to this in regards to activity. Being long at the bottom had to have been a lonely trade.
It's supposed to be.

I'll bet someone a silver maple that silver won't last 2 full US trading sessions (I WAS going to say 24 hrs but I gotta have a little leeway - weekend not included) below $19 - IF it makes it that far AND whomever loses has to change their avatar to something everyone here agrees is really ugly until we hit $20 again...

:cool:
 
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pitw

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It's supposed to be.

I'll bet someone a silver maple that silver won't last 2 full US trading sessions (I WAS going to say 24 hrs but I gotta have a little leeway - weekend not included) below $19 - IF it makes it that far AND whomever loses has to change their avatar to something everyone here agrees is really ugly until we hit $20 again...

:cool:
You are on but someone will have to put an avatar up for me as I don't know how and it would be nice if someone was to tell me if I win or lose too.:Stoned:
 
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You are on but someone will have to put an avatar up for me as I don't know how and it would be nice if someone was to tell me if I win or lose too.:Stoned:
That's right, you are Canadian. That's below $19 USD, of course.

You're the first taker so the bet's with you if you agree. I am a man of my word, and although I am newly registered here on GiM2, I was at GiM 1 back in the day but had not paid much attention to the PM markets these last several years because I wasn't going to bet against the Fed anymore - at least for awhile. Now I'm back and I'm not going anywhere 'cause I'm betting we are on The Precipice of Something Big 2.0. Like 2007/2008 except even worse 'cause the stretched rubber band of QE and other economic manipulations is coming back to snap the world - mainly the US/Europe - in the eyeball very hard and there's nothing anyone can do about it anymore. And that's just the economy.

So, I bet you a Canadian Silver Maple that silver will not be driven below $19 USD and STAY COMPLETELY UNDER for a total 2 full US trading sessions. I or someone else will tell you if does. You can PM me and we can trade email addys if you're game.

on edit: I or someone can tell you how to get an avatar when it comes to that.
:cool:
 
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pitw

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Sounds good to me. I'm up a ASE on this site so I figured I was the one who should take the bet as it was my idea last time. [L] I'll even send you a 25th anniversary one if I lose. Let me know the results, eh.
 
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Sounds good to me. I'm up a ASE on this site so I figured I was the one who should take the bet as it was my idea last time. [L] I'll even send you a 25th anniversary one if I lose. Let me know the results, eh.
OK. Everyone here sees the bet. Mine's a 2014 Maple.

If it's going to happen, it's going happen pretty soon (week or two?)...
 

blueice

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There are interests in the world that want more than a sensational attack that provides sizzle - but, little substance...

The opportunity to decimate a world power - using infected suicide bombers - is a threat that should be taken very seriously... I have read musings about whether that is what the purpose of raiding the clinic was where they took all the infected sheets, pillows, etc...

Imagine a scenario where a group of suicide bombers liquiefy an ebola victim and then deliberately infect themselves prior to boarding a plane to the US.

Too far fetched some might say? If these crazies are willing to blow themselves up...why not?
Boss, this has not been done because of the technical issues
faced by a bio-terrorist(s)...The use of agents, of any sort, are simply to constrictive of a tool, when explosives
provide all the modern means of storage and delivery with guaranty effects.

Now, if we can only blow up Ag prices, I would be quite pleased!
 

jelly

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OK. Everyone here sees the bet. Mine's a 2014 Maple.

If it's going to happen, it's going happen pretty soon (week or two?)...
Looks like there's going to be Fed minutes released this week, and Yellen meeting with Draghi to talk about monetary policy. So I wouldn't be surprised if a move begins this week.
Seems like when the fed speaks, gold gets smashed reliably. And when the metals are coiling, this would be the perfect opportunity for them to smash gold again. This could be another billion-dollar trade for the big banks, just like the 2013 smash.

But I'm hoping for the best. There is definitely hope for us bulls looking at the charts.
 

Ahillock

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Jelly, FOMC minutes should be released today.



Edit: Minutes should be released around 2pm today.
 
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dpong

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OK. Everyone here sees the bet. Mine's a 2014 Maple.

If it's going to happen, it's going happen pretty soon (week or two?)...
Hey, wanderin', Not that it's any of my business but I think the statement of what your bet is, is incompletely formed. For instance, are we talking about the very first time it were to dip below $19? What if after a minor dip below 19, the following week it dips below 19 and trades there for 2 sessions? See what I mean? There is no time limitation and no mention of whether you guys are betting on the first dip, second dip, third dip. Taken to extremes, Silver could trade at $100 and then dip below 19. Who wins that one? Just sayin'. There is a hole with wiggle room. It could be clear when pitw wins the bet if silver goes straight to 18.75 and stays there. However, when and under what circumstances would we declare you the winner? First dip under 19 that doesn't stick, even if it sticks the following day? Sorry I'm too detail oriented I suppose. Enjoy your bet however it turns out! :)
 
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Hey, wanderin', Not that it's any of my business but I think the statement of what your bet is, is incompletely formed. For instance, are we talking about the very first time it were to dip below $19? What if after a minor dip below 19, the following week it dips below 19 and trades there for 2 sessions? See what I mean? There is no time limitation and no mention of whether you guys are betting on the first dip, second dip, third dip. Taken to extremes, Silver could trade at $100 and then dip below 19. Who wins that one? Just sayin'. There is a hole with wiggle room. It could be clear when pitw wins the bet if silver goes straight to 18.75 and stays there. However, when and under what circumstances would we declare you the winner? First dip under 19 that doesn't stick, even if it sticks the following day? Sorry I'm too detail oriented I suppose. Enjoy your bet however it turns out! :)
Thanks.

I thought about that this morning, too. Clarified: spot silver STAYS below $19.00 for 2 CONSECUTIVE US SESSIONS.

Better?

It was late last night, and I was tired, but thought a good old fashioned bet would liven this thread up a little.
 

Strawboss

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Untitled.jpg
Monthly silver chart showing fibonacci's. Target is the 78.6% correction with a backtest of the downtrend line around $14 with a timeframe of this coming winter...

Just a guess...
 

dpong

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Thanks.

I thought about that this morning, too. Clarified: spot silver STAYS below $19.00 for 2 CONSECUTIVE US SESSIONS.

Better?

It was late last night, and I was tired, but thought a good old fashioned bet would liven this thread up a little.
That explains how pitw could win. At what date, and under what circumstances would YOU be declared to have won? There has to be either some date or some event that would mean you won, not simply: it never did that. When? The end of time? :)
 

jelly

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Looks like there's going to be Fed minutes released this week, and Yellen meeting with Draghi to talk about monetary policy. So I wouldn't be surprised if a move begins this week.
Seems like when the fed speaks, gold gets smashed reliably. And when the metals are coiling, this would be the perfect opportunity for them to smash gold again. This could be another billion-dollar trade for the big banks, just like the 2013 smash.
As expected, gold/silver are heading lower. I'm just hoping someone doesn't dump an entire years mine supply on the market during NY hours. If we can make it through that, there's hope.
 
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That explains how pitw could win. At what date, and under what circumstances would YOU be declared to have won? There has to be either some date or some event that would mean you won, not simply: it never did that. When? The end of time? :)
Good 'till September 18th DEADLINE (i was going say year end, but lets keep an interesting and pressured timetable), day after the 2 day Fed meeting ends in Sept (Sept 16, 17 meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Chair), unless he objects and wants to negotiate other terms between now and then. If he wants to go further, to say, October 30th, the day after that Fed meeting (end of QE?), I'll do that.

What say you pitw?

http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
 
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pitw

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Good 'till September 18 (i was going say year end, but lets keep an interesting timetable), day after the 2 day Fed meeting ends (meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Chair), unless he objects and wants to negotiate other terms between now and then. If he wants to go further, to say, October 30th, the day after that Fed meeting (end of QE?), I'll do that.
He's just waiting for someone[likely you] to say to send or receive.LOL I've been kinda/sorta chuckling about this bet for 24 hours cause there is variables in which price ticker to watch. You sir make the rules and I'll play by them for a maple but if it was for 1,000 of them I might want some input.
 
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Understood. We could go by close on the daily. 2 consecutive closes below $19 on the daily. Sept or Oct dates posted above or what? You're choice.

LOL, it IS just a worthless ounce of silver, right?