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Silver

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In my initial post on this subject I wrote: "Of course it will take EXTREME panic and unrest in order for them to implement this".

It wont be effective marketing that ushers this in...it will be done in response to severe global panic...

For example...what would happen if people were "discovered" to have gotten Ebola as a result of touching paper money in circulation?

Another example...what if Ebola spreads enough where people quit going to work? Supply chains simply dissolve...commerce grinds to a halt. The banks and their bloated balance sheets and all the leverage in the world would come crashing down...

What would rise from the ashes?
Usually, nothing good rises from panic and unrest. Thanks to the internet, people today are much more wary of bankers and their schemes. What rises from the ashes depends on the effectiveness of propaganda and disinformation programs. Too many variables to predict, even for TPTB.

I'd still rather have physical silver than green pieces of paper with writing on them.
 

Unca Walt

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To expand on my last post...it is my expectation that a single global currency is on its way...how soon or how far - I have no idea...but, I am pretty sure it is in fact coming at some point in the not too distant future...

The question in my mind is how would gold/silver act in such a scenario. Using past performance doesnt make sense to me because there has never been a single global currency...so - to make the argument that it will continue to act as it always has (even though the underlying fundamental would be different) is faulty.

It seems like a reasonable assumption to me that there is potential for gold/silver to act differently in a world with only 1 official currency...
The existence/non-existence of a global currency will have no importance regarding the fungibility of PM's. Here's why: Politician WILL spend more than they have. ANY currency -- without exception ever, and no matter whether accepted in 99% of the world -- has ever withstood this immutable trait.

There WILL be, and always HAS been... inflation/currency debasement.

But you cannot print gold or silver.

Politicians have never figured out a way. And, as said above: You cannot be taxed out of something they (the politicians) don't know you have.
 

Zed

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I am recasting my silver into door wedges just in case! This market is seriously distorted and someone is VERY wrong on price direction. A years worth of production in OI near mid term low prices, yikes, this should be washing out to relative OI lows. When it moves properly it should be fast in whatever direction. Logic says that it should be up, but then again the last time we had this setup $25 broke down badly. Silver is a bomb waiting to go bang... be prepared to move fast, it could be a buy of a life time if we washout or a trip to triple digits for the first time in history.
 

Chester-Copperpot

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So on a positive note, how fast would the market move to take silver in to triple digits. Is this something that builds over a few years, or just takes off like a........... Rocket!
 

Zed

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So on a positive note, how fast would the market move to take silver in to triple digits. Is this something that builds over a few years, or just takes off like a........... Rocket!
I honestly don't know, the potential looks tantalising and silver can and does move fast BUT I have not seen this often enough to guess just what it could mean.
 

Zed

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:biggrin:
I've been told that price doesn't matter. The relationship between assets and the dollar should be ignored. Then the crowd cheered.
Yeah, right :Stoned:. Only if you are digging a shallow grave for the USD'S imminent demise!

... wait a sec, I didn't say that did I? I hooked into the red wine last night, and well, things happened. I will just say a blanket sorry and ask no questions.

Seriously, I listened to Jim Willie yesterday and, as much as I find him a bit of a chore these days, I have to agree with him in that I think the USD probably melts up before it runs into significant trouble. In fact I think the run up will trigger the issues that .gov will finally respond to.

As I have said before I am, maybe mistakenly, in the USD up, gold up, DOW up camp... a Mises 'crack' up boom as the competitive devaluation (or inflation) between the Euro, Yen and USD moves into the next phase.

I'm watching with interest... this may surprise a few people in how it actually plays which will mean some exciting moves as people back out of what where considered certain trades. Is short silver one of them?... stay tuned! :biggrin:
 

EO 11110

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frn inc has the perfect setup -- a one world currency with regional sub currencies for hocus pocus, profit, and control (yen, yuan, euro, peso....all subs)

you think nyc.dc let japan/germany off? we own their azzes since the big booms

you think china's yuah is a competitor....while nyc.dc fawn all over them? MOST FAVORED

fade the hype
 

skychief

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These are wonderful times for start-up stackers like myself. Not so much fun for the ETF traders, I imagine. But i hope the $17 silver holds out for another year. They're practically giving it away. When the correction hits, some folks stand to make alot of money.
Historically, Silver has traded at roughly 1/12 that of Gold. Today Gold is trading @ $1240. Silver should be trading around $103. imo

Time to buy, buy buy..
 

GOLD DUCK

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These are wonderful times for start-up stackers like myself. Not so much fun for the ETF traders, I imagine. But i hope the $17 silver holds out for another year. They're practically giving it away. When the correction hits, some folks stand to make alot of money.
Historically, Silver has traded at roughly 1/12 that of Gold. Today Gold is trading @ $1240. Silver should be trading around $103. imo

Time to buy, buy buy..
QWAK,skychief,The long established historical SILVER/GOLD rato is 16/1 but it has not been there in a long LONG time!:cheerful:

The average current cost to mine and refine SILVER is about $24.00 perhaps a tat higher.:wink:

the DUCK :15_1_70v:
 

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Seemingly heavy selling on this move...new shorts? Capitulation? The beginning of something bigger? Who knows...

What I do know is that silver is having difficulty mounting any type of rally. That simply means the sellers are in control. No sense denying that...its simply a fact. Now - who those sellers are and what their motives are...that is a completely different conversation. attpBut for the moment - they have the upper hand.

Buying physical seems like a good idea...even more as price declines.

Miners are being stressed - they should do well when this tide turns (assuming it eventually does)... Question to the group...What is your single best mining play? I would love to hear what you think and your reasons...
 

Zed

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This is the December contract with total (all contracts) volume overlaid.



It doesn't look like volume is ramping up on sell offs to me...

+ the major bumps in volume since the year began have been on rallies save maybe a little recently.

Going into Comex hours last night Silver had that look it gets when the algos are dominating the scene... Kitco's chart gets a real saw-tooth pattern.

I think we are battling the algos and will continue to do so until a fundamental catalyst kicks in. That may be as simple as light pressure on deliveries, it shouldn't take a whole heap, gold taking off a bit... you name it, any number of small events could flip the scene here. It looks charged to me.
 

savvydon

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This is the December contract with total (all contracts) volume overlaid.

Interesting how that run up in February was looking like it wanted to close the gap at $22.50 when someone stepped in to do some heavy selling. Looks like that number was heavily defended.
 

Zed

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Interesting how that run up in February was looking like it wanted to close the gap at $22.50 when someone stepped in to do some heavy selling. Looks like that number was heavily defended.
Yes, a tactical release of pressure. There are mostly 1st division market players involved in this, I think that most all amateurs have left the stage.

Recent major sell offs have been driven from a position where the Large and Small Specs have been relatively long and the Commercials relatively short. This last sell off started with Large Specs relatively long again but the Small Specs more neutral. By the look of COT it is close to done and they have not achieved anything like the first operation. It looks like they got the desired setup in terms of market structure but the haven't had anywhere near the result, as damaging as it has been. IMO it is looking wrung out, I doubt that there is much juice left here or much scope to rinse and repeat. JMO. FWIW.
 

skychief

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QWAK,skychief,The long established historical SILVER/GOLD rato is 16/1 but it has not been there in a long LONG time!:cheerful:

The average current cost to mine and refine SILVER is about $24.00 perhaps a tat higher.:wink:

the DUCK :15_1_70v:
Okie dokie..I stand corrected...

let's use the the 16:1 Gold-to-Silver ratio.

Gold trading @ $1243 divided by 16 = $77.

Still a bargain at $17, would you agree? :beer1:
 

Zed

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16:1 comes mainly from the period prior to 1900. Silver was acquired and used differently back then, the whole market was very different. There is no reason why that ratio should be meaningful in today's world. Silver and gold are chalk and cheese in many respects, how they relate to each other is determined by a number of factors that you can't really distill into a fixed ratio to ascertain under or over valuation.

If you where to use a long term moving average, of say 50 weeks, since the mid 90's Gold has been worth around 55 to 65 Ozs of Silver. Currently the average sits at 55 and the price @ 72 indicating near term undervaluation relative to gold. The $48 silver peak took us to 31 odd indicating a near term overvaluation re gold. If we stay within the confines of the ratios laid down so far in this bull market and gold gets to the low $5000's (not impossible here) then you could reasonably expect silver to be over the $150 level and approaching the $200 level.

We may see 16:1 again, even less, but as a number it will mean little other than it will be likely that silver is over valued at the time.
 
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skychief

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...a number of factors that you can't really distill into a fixed ratio to ascertain under or over valuation.

If you where to use a long term moving average, of say 50 weeks, since the mid 90's Gold has been worth around 55 to 65 Ozs of Silver. Currently the average sits at 55 and the price @ 72 indicating near term undervaluation relative to gold. The $48 silver peak took us to 31 odd indicating a near term overvaluation re gold. If we stay within the confines of the ratios laid down so far in this bull market and gold gets to the low $5000's (not impossible here) then you could reasonable expect silver to be over the $150 level and approaching the $200 level.
I'm reading between the lines here, but I'm gleaning that the Gold trading prices are being manipulated by adverse market forces. Is this the case? Correct me if i'm wrong... Im kinda new to the PM stratagem.

But, as Gold Duck pointed out, the actual cost of resources to extract silver from the Earth far exceeds its current value, thereby making it a sound investment.
 

Zed

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But, as Gold Duck pointed out, the actual cost of resources to extract silver from the Earth far exceeds its current value, thereby making it a sound investment.
That is a reasonable postion to take for the long term but a large part of supply in both the gold and silver markets comes from investor dishording which can override that factor in the short to medium term. The swing factor is net investor demand, if investors are selling for a prolonged period you can see below mine cost for sometime. So in the short to medium term it may not matter what mine cost is, investor sentiment rules. In the long term below cost shuts mines, that restricts supply, so eventually we must end up over cost again. You need to judge when it matters and when it doesn't. Investor sentiment is king here. JMO.

The ratio has nothing to do with cost, it swings with sentiment.
 

blueice

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To expand on my last post...it is my expectation that a single global currency is on its way...how soon or how far - I have no idea...but, I am pretty sure it is in fact coming at some point in the not too distant future...
Boss, it would be unworkable and a massive failure like the Euro.

Too much nationalism and no flexibility for too many countries.
 

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Boss, regardless of whether the price of silver drops a little lower or not, these were outstanding and timely calls. I will listen more carefully to your words of wisdom in the future.

View attachment 64227
Monthly silver chart showing fibonacci's. Target is the 78.6% correction with a backtest of the downtrend line around $14 with a timeframe of this coming winter...

Silver right now is weak. Rallies are being sold. As I have mentioned ad nauseum - I think $14 is possible but not necessarily required... To give some insight into just how weak silver is...this is the time of year when silver is seasonally pretty strong...and yet price is declining...

Look to the weekly chart for a higher high and a higher low. I think when that happens - that will be the turning point for silver...until then...patience and fortitude are required. If you are stacking...these are pretty good prices right now - especially if you are dollar cost averaging by purchasing some each month...
 

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For perspective...

Did you know that the RSI on the monthly chart is at the lowest its been in 20 years? Its currently lower than it was back in 2008...

When you look into the future and ask yourself the question whether silver be higher or lower from current levels over the next few years (based on the monthly chart)...the odds seem to heavily favor a higher price...

Thats not a guarantee of course...but, I would say history suggests that the current weakness is probably not sustainable over time and that a rally is inevitable...

That - in my opinion - is the bullish argument for why I think current prices are a pretty good deal - especially if entering the silver market on a dollar cost averaging basis...
 

Weatherman

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I think we are definitely entering the BUY ZONE...
I hope you are right about this being the buy zone. FWIW, I bought my quota of physical (ASE before the premium increase) a week ago. Today, I pushed the rest of my chips onto the table when I saw silver and gold trade higher than the previous intra day highs, as shown in the small chart below.

PM Pop.jpg

My guess (again only FWIW, and all readers should DYODD) is that metals may bounce around the current price levels for the next month or so. The Banksters will not want to see too much bullish price action (that could encourage longs to take delivery) in the markets until well into the delivery notice period for the December contracts. By mid December, however, I hope that the Banksters will relax their control of the price ceiling, and then we could see a long overdue major rally in silver and gold.
 

Weatherman

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Silver's picking up good vibrations. Its giving me excitations. :s1:

Silver Ready to Run by Adam Hamilton

Silver looks to be on the verge of a major new upleg, finally emerging from the past couple years’ ugly sentiment wasteland.This beleaguered precious metal recently bottomed as futures speculators threw in the towel on their extreme shorting.And while investors’ ongoing silver stealth buying continues, it’s been modest.So there is vast room for capital inflows to accelerate dramatically as gold mean reverts higher.

Silver has always had a special allure for hardened contrarian investors.Its price action is exceptionally volatile, with massive rallies erupting from time to time that multiply capital deployed in it.With silver’s relatively-small market size, it doesn’t take a lot of new investment buying to catapult prices higher.And shifting sentiment, a powerful self-feeding motivator, fuels the big swings in capital flows that really move silver.

When investors wax bullish on this white metal, its price soars with a fury few other investments can match.Later when silver falls out of favor again, prices collapse.And that’s the miserable story of the past couple years.Silver dropped 19.7% in 2014 after plunging a brutal 35.6% in 2013.Such dismal performance naturally left silver universally despised, the pariah of the investment world.But that is changing.

Silver is ready to run again, a very exciting prospect given the huge uplegs it is renowned for.Silver’s fundamentals are quite unique.Though it is primarily an industrial metal with steady global supply and demand, investment capital can slosh in and out in a big way.The bullish sentiment that’s necessary to trigger big silver demand spikes comes from one thing, gold prices.Gold dominates silver psychology.

When gold is weak like during recent years, investors shun silver so its price crumbles and languishes.But when gold strengthens, investors flood back into the white metal.Silver leverages and amplifies gold’s gains, making it one of the best investments when gold is returning to favor.And gold’s long-overdue mean-reversion rebound upleg out of recent years’ crazy anomalous lows is now underway.
More, with Adam Hamilton's signature charts, at: http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-silver-ready-to-run.aspx?article=6265866504H11690
 

Strawboss

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$23 and $28 are looking like logical targets based on the monthly chart. Not sure yet that the correction is over. If it wasnt for Armstrong - I would be 100% bullish right now...I had set $14 as a downside target long back and having hit it and then a strong bounce off of it...seems pretty bullish...

However - Armstrongs perspective on the capital flows and the further likely weakness in gold/silver based on the US dollar continuing to strengthening as capital flees EM and Europe...

So...I would consider my viewpoint as being very bullish...but, very cognizant of Armstrong's viewpoint as well...

In terms of downside potential - we havent yet crossed below $14 (I believe the lowest future price I saw was $14.15)...if we do breach $14 on the downside - $8 becomes the next potential target...

Strawboss, you still around? See anything that you might want to share with us?
 

Strawboss

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Armstrong seems to be saying that the seasonal rally in gold is about over...if so...and gold resumes its decline - it would make sense that silver will follow...Reason being the strong dollar and all that...

I know I keep mentioning him...but, there is a reason...his analysis continues to make sense to me and many of his projections end up being pretty damn accurate - however he does it...

I would be a little nervous right now being long in anything silver except for your core physical positions...

On the weekly silver chart - we are bumping up against 60 on the RSI (no time to post a chart right now...you can check for yourself). Longtime readers know that in a bear market - the RSI typically wont rise above 60...

I think caution and being protective of your capital is the right frame of mind at the moment...
 

southfork

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And the EU just announced a 1.4 trillion printing scam, the US cant raise rates, dollar up ?? Why?? Dow pushing 18k WTF , Were worse off than anyone debt wise, nothing makes sense anymore.
 

Strawboss

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International capital flows...money is leaving the EU seeking safer harbors...some Japanese folks looking to get out of the Yen...trouble brewing in Ukraine...rising unrest in the Middle East...

When the big money gets nervous in their local currency...and they look around for a safer place to park their money...what do they see? The obvious answer is the US...which would explain the ridiculously high prices on US bonds, the stock market defying gravity, etc...

And the EU just announced a 1.4 trillion printing scam, the US cant raise rates, dollar up ?? Why?? Dow pushing 18k WTF , Were worse off than anyone debt wise, nothing makes sense anymore.