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Silver

Weatherman

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Armstrong seems to be saying that the seasonal rally in gold is about over
My guess is that Armstrong is calling the end of this rally too early. From 2003 through 2011 (until the Bankster bash in 2011), the gold and silver year end rally continued to mid March (plus or minus six weeks). After the fast rise in January, it is reasonable to expect a correction soon, but people who sell here may need to be quick to jump back in if the correction is brief. My plan is to wait another month or two before I take some chips off the table, and hopefully around $22. The downtrend line on the 5 year chart below is close to $22.50, and that looks to me like a good target for transition to the summer doldrums. YMMV so DYODD!

SILVER weekly through 20150123.jpg

Edited to replace the three year chart with this five year chart that shows the complete downtrend channel.
 
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gringott

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I heard them call it; "The cleanest shirt in the laundry basket" on Jim Puplavas Financial Sense podcasts.
I read a blog that called it "The Cleanest Shirt in a Laundry Basket that is on Fire".
 

Zed

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The reality is more like this...


You are up because they are down and next they will be up because you are down... and so it will go, until we all throw up!
 
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Strawboss

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Zed - you are not far off...Silver is a very volatile trading vehicle/investment...

It goes up...it goes down...

I just like riding the waves...

Hey Weatherman...good to see you...hope all is well for you and your family...
 

Strawboss

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For perspective...

Did you know that the RSI on the monthly chart is at the lowest its been in 20 years? Its currently lower than it was back in 2008...

When you look into the future and ask yourself the question whether silver be higher or lower from current levels over the next few years (based on the monthly chart)...the odds seem to heavily favor a higher price...

Thats not a guarantee of course...but, I would say history suggests that the current weakness is probably not sustainable over time and that a rally is inevitable...

That - in my opinion - is the bullish argument for why I think current prices are a pretty good deal - especially if entering the silver market on a dollar cost averaging basis...
Right on time...

1.jpg
 

Weatherman

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BrotherJohnF speculates that the current world wide surge in paper stock markets may be an inflationary blow off in which investors are herded into risky stocks by the policies of ZIRP and NIRP. His guess is that a crash in the world stock markets is inevitable, at an unknown point in time. He continues to see silver as being a most undervalued asset. He also sees technical signs that the silver bull may have already begun to move. I hope he is right on all counts!

 
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Ahillock

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There really isn't any fundamentals to support the current value of stocks. The current price of stocks is based on corporate buy backs, NIRP/ZIRP, QE, central bank stock purchasing, plunge protection team work, high frequency trades...etc. It is all one big scam going around and around in a circle of debt denominated assets. Sure you can try and jump on the merry-go-round and have fun while it picks up speed. Question is, can anyone of us jump off and head to the exit before it self implodes? I know I don't have the ability to do that as I will be left holding the bag of chit the bankers left for me. Stocks and paper debt assets are all overly priced. I'd rather have some hard asset that has withstood the centuries of civilizations. Barbaric relic and all that.
 

Weatherman

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JPM has accumulated a huge stash of physical silver. My approach is to ignore what they say, and watch closely what they do!

JPM silver.jpg

Screenshot from http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd, but that info is here today and gone tomorrow.
 

Zed

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Sadly an inventory of that size probably offers more profit opportunity on the down side by leveraging it 100:1 selling short then only having to deliver the 1% they actually have. The loss on the physical inventory would be SUBSTANTIALLY eclipsed by the profit on the short contracts.

They can play that game until the threat of delivery rises to a point that breaks it.

... I have not done the math but I'd not assume that this is necessarily a bullish development.
 

savvydon

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Sadly an inventory of that size probably offers more profit opportunity on the down side by leveraging it 100:1 selling short then only having to deliver the 1% they actually have. The loss on the physical inventory would be SUBSTANTIALLY eclipsed by the profit on the short contracts.

They can play that game until the threat of delivery rises to a point that breaks it.

... I have not done the math but I'd not assume that this is necessarily a bullish development.
Am I right in assuming that the more silver they have the more they can control the market? In other words, the larger their physical position the more they can aggressively short the price down. While they profit from the shorted silver they can use that profit to buy more silver ever cheaper until they decide to let go of the leverage and watch the price slingshot back up - At this point they benefit directly from all their stockpiled silver.

Kind of a win/win for them, all stemming from their ability to influence/rig/control the market.
 

Zed

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Am I right in assuming that the more silver they have the more they can control the market? In other words, the larger their physical position the more they can aggressively short the price down. While they profit from the shorted silver they can use that profit to buy more silver ever cheaper until they decide to let go of the leverage and watch the price slingshot back up - At this point they benefit directly from all their stockpiled silver.

Kind of a win/win for them, all stemming from their ability to influence/rig/control the market.
Yes... it could work that way.

The restricting factor is physical takeoff, in theory at some point that idea/plan could/should be overwhelmed by demand for settlement in physical as the "off exchange" physical supplies dry up at the lower price and people start to seek physical Comex settlement over the easier route of Comex cash settlement and physical purchase in the OTC market. If the OTC market runs dry or refuses to transact they are a bit screwed.

In the end it all hinges on the physical market getting what it needs, while that is still occurring the paper market can still swing things too far in either direction. Curently this is a supply deficit market but that is not a cast iron gurantee that it can't be pushed further south successfully.

That is unless we assume that JPM actually see the physical as a real hedge of some sort and not just a chip in a game. Even then, as you point out, this may work to build inventory further... but I'd argue that is what has happened 2013 to date. I'd say we are near to the end of the accumulation and that the next step is coming soonish. So the fact is we can't know at this point, while it is interesting to observe, until the strategy that this is underpinning is executed we are really guessing... this could mean anything in the shorter term.

My 2c.
 

solarion

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Welcome to Monday morning smackdown episode 5,365! Dollars are awesome! PMs are barbaric relics to be shunned!
 

Mr Paradise

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Just in time for the Louisiana puck ...actually have to add something else to the cart to get the $99 free shipping.
 

solarion

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Silver and gold suck, I just dumped them all in the fkin trash.
Dangit. I shoulda just done that. It'd have been easier than sinking all those PM flavored boat anchors.
 

Strawboss

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The next bull market in silver will commence the day after Weatherman turns bearish...

Until then...the beatings will continue until morale improves....
 

Deweydog

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Thank God I dumped at $35-$40.....

Pity the fools that bought in during the tail end of the run up to 48.......their butts gotta be stinging.....
 

Weatherman

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The next bull market in silver will commence the day after Weatherman turns bearish...
I sure do hope you are right about that. I would love to be surprised by a year end rally this year, just like the predictable year end rallies from 2001 to 2011, but I am disillusioned now and I am buying nothing more. For me, that is as bearish as I can become, because I refuse to think about selling anything at these bargain basement prices. Just a month or two ago, I had hopes that a silver shortage would force the banksters to allow prices to rise. The two stories below, however, tell me there is abundant physical silver to meet probable demand, so the banksters can continue their profit printing machine which steals from investors and traders and the miners. I am no longer confident there will be a major rally until the wheels fall off the economic cart, and that could be a difficult time to cash in chips even if the bet wins big. Some days, I wish I was a stock market Pollyanna.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...iles-surge-as-demand-wanes-on-slowing-economy

http://www.silverdoctors.com/why-is-this-bank-stockpiling-silver-like-theres-no-tomorrow/
 
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i am bullish quite a few silver stocks if things play out like they should in a bull market over the next year. But silver stocks rallied 2 years before silver in 2001 and started under performing silver in 2004.

So if we get the silver stock rally that im suspecting that we will get within a year then we have another year to wait for silver to play catch up.

I have noticed the very cyclical nature of commodity markets and how its only a trade and not necessarily a buy and hold type of asset class...
 

Ahillock

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I have to admit gold and silver have been keeping the good fight. With all the talk of $600 gold and $9 silver, after every smack down they both rebound eventually to their current range defined price. With all of the deflation and search for liquidity going on, that is fairly impressive. $1200 +/- and $16 +/- will have to wait and see what happens this summer.
 

Chester-Copperpot

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What talk of $600 gold and $9 silver are you talking about. I don't recall many if any at all claiming gold and silver will fall to these levels.
 

CrimsonGuardJay

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What talk of $600 gold and $9 silver are you talking about. I don't recall many if any at all claiming gold and silver will fall to these levels.
A lot of "experts" have thrown those numbers around the past few months. I don't think it's likely, but I've surprised multiple times in the past few years, so, who knows. I'll just buy more.
 

Ahillock

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What talk of $600 gold and $9 silver are you talking about. I don't recall many if any at all claiming gold and silver will fall to these levels.
Harry Dent for one has said $700 gold and lower. #deflation. Martin Armstrong has gone on the record for stating gold to $600-700. I know I have heard/read of others that have said similar. So that point of view is talked about.

Silver Art for one has claimed $8 silver on here.

But if you take the current GSR of of ~ 73:1 and say $700-800 gold you get $9-10 silver.
 

Strawboss

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If $14 gives way as the floor for silver - then $8 is definitely a possibility. That doesnt mean it will happen - but, it would definitely be possible. If it was to occur - it would probably be an intraday event where price simply collapses down to that level before buyers jump in and run it back up. Physical would not be available at that price and there would be ridiculous margins added to any offers to sell phyz...

I dont think its probable that price would drop to that level and sit there for any amount of time. There would simply be too many buyers that would be willing to purchase with the intention of passing it along to the next generation at those prices.
 
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i have a feeling that silver has bottomed but no guarantees yet.
The thing is i drew the price objective of the 2013 breakdown at 13.72 and we got really close to it. Also the symmetrical breaks of the long term channel in 2011 and 2014 kind of tells of the end of a move. If on a log chart you draw a line from the 2001 bottom to the 2009 bottom and a parallel line from the 2008 top, you get a channel. In 2011 dilver exceeded this channel to the upside and now it has exceeded it to the downside. No one knows the future so i guess lets wait and see what happens in the next year. There is definitely potential for some silver stocks to reverse trend within 1 year, imo...
 

solarion

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PMs get taken down nearly every single day at the same time +/- a few MINUTES. Does anyone still seriously believe these markets...any markets, are driven primarily by anything other than manipulation? How anyone can still think that technical analysis has any merit whatsoever in a market that's so blatantly rigged is stunning. Forget the silly trendline theories already. All that matters is how much counterfeit metals commercial banksters can dump into the markets before people grow brains and stop playing their paper ponzi shell game.

l5TzFRa.png
Today's chart...but it could just as easily be any other day this week...or year.
 
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I dont see people complain metals were bottoming and breaking out to new highs almost the same way day after day, week after week during the bull market. why isnt that manipulation, too?
 

solarion

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I dont see people complain metals were bottoming and breaking out to new highs almost the same way day after day, week after week during the bull market. why isnt that manipulation, too?
Sorry I wasn't into metals in 1980 so I can't really address your question from personal experience. Last time I did the maths silver's all time inflation adjusted high was $147/ounce so I don't really see where this talk about "bottoming and breaking out to new highs" comes from. Are you referring to the late 70's? Seems a shame that necessity commodities like food and energy don't spontaneously devalue like PMs. Guess there's less motivation for banksters to suppress the price of beef eh?
 
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Im refering to the rally into the 2011 high. I guess only gold made new highs then but the same point stands. The thing with any market is they go through bull and bear markets.