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Strawboss

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I am thinking this rally in the PM's is getting a bit long in the tooth...my rationale is that silver typically "catches up" with gold at the end of rallies whereas gold leads the way. If you look at the percentage gains between the 2 since this rally began - you notice that gold has outperformed...keep an eye on silver. It will catch up in spectacular fashion...and that typically signals the end of the rally and the beginning of the correction.

I still stand by my belief (and its only that...a belief) that we haven't yet seen the bottom yet in the PMs...
 

Scorpio

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Renewing this thread

Please remember, last post from here above was in 2010
 

arminius

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FunnyMoney

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Yea, i think it was a mistake for me to talk about fundamentals. I really only care about technicals...

Well if it works then keep using it. But typically a time will come when the fundamentals will take over. The technical charts will then get quickly redrawn after the fact and everyone will say see, the chart does predict what we just saw. A successful trader usually has to follow all details, but if overly weighting the technical cycle inputs is making you money then by all means, ride the wave.
 

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Strawboss

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Here is a weekly chart of SLV which I am using as a proxy for silver itself. As you can see - price has been consolidating for the better part of a couple of years - but I think that is soon going to come to an end.

Currently - we have a good opportunity for a long entry if you are adventurous (sell a weekly close below $15.50 as a stop).

Additional support for this trade is the fact that the GSR is above 80 - which is historically on the high side.

DYODD and all that...

slv weekly.png
 

Strawboss

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The strongest stock in the sector at the moment is Fortuna.

silver stocks performance.png
 

Strawboss

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A good entry at present with a stop at about $4.45

Fortuna.png
 

Weatherman

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Keep an eye of RGLD too. RGLD was very strong in 2016-17, and it could be a winner again this year. Te chart below shows RGLD divided by FSM over the past three years.

RGLD.jpg
 

Strawboss

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silver-huge-cup-and-handle-pattern-in-play-feb-22.jpg
 

solarion

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I'm stacking moar in here. 2017 Eagles are currently 17.43 any quantity from amagimetals.
 

solarion

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LOL You're right! I got that price from comparesilver.com and pounced immediately. Now it says 20.51 for the same eagles.

Edit: now 18.73...they're all over the place. Oh well, long as they ship me mine for 17.43. ;p

Weird! For some strange reason, they don't seem to be in a hurry to fill my order! lol



Now those Eagles are 21.15 and their buyback price is .19 lower than where I purchased.

Seems their webmaster made a gaff.

Edit2: Finally got shipping notify on this order. Not complaining as it's a fantastic price. Never had a problem with Amagimetals, but they are slow to ship compared to others.
 
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Strawboss

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silver cot.jpg
 

solarion

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The markets are fake, so I don't pay all that much attention, but silver is silly cheap when it takes 80.4 ounces of the stuff to buy a single ounce of gold.

...and as is so oft the case, the USDx is down again even while both metals are lower. The dollar can't even get convincingly over 90 and yet the metals continue to show weakness. Fake. Phony. False.

Edit: Look at this crap! I swear these writers don't even try anymore. This "strong dollar" is why silver dropped almost 1% today?!? Who are these traders that are dumping silver because the USDx managed to not set a fresh 52 week low for a change?



There IS NO strong dollar!
 
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Strawboss

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Here is the most recent silver COT report. The large specs (bag holders) are continuing to add to their shorts and the commercials (smart money) are at the lowest short levels in a LONG time.

The way this market works is that as prices rise - the commercials sell into the price rise to lock in the higher price. The large specs are momentum focused...when prices rise - they add long positions...when prices fall - they add short positions (or sell their longs).

At major turning points - you will see the commercials on the right side of the upcoming trade - and the large specs on the wrong side. It happens every time. And we are currently at levels not seen in many, many years...

Coupled with the GSR ratio being so high...this is a setup for a pretty substantial rally in silver... this is an anomaly that I don't think will last very long.

silver cot.png
 

Strawboss

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For comparison - here is another silver COT chart that shows what it looked like as the rally began in 2016. Notice how the large specs increase their positions into a price rally...and how the commercials increase their short position into price rallies. At major tops/bottoms - you see the large specs on the wrong side and the commercials on the right side of what is coming next...

It was super bullish then...which makes the current set up even MORE bullish. As an aside...the commercials have NEVER been net long in silver. NEVER. Another week of large spec selling would push the commercials into a long net position as they are the other side of the trade.

Timing of this? That's always the conundrum... My best guess is that its imminent...next week? 2 weeks? A month? Hard to imagine it being longer than that. What would be even better would be if price actually fell first into the $15s on a sharp spike down to grab all the sell stops down there.


silver cot 2016.png
 

savvydon

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Good time to utilize some dry powder. Agree that any sharp spike down into the 15s with a resultant GSR moving toward to 85 range could be a good time to back up the truck. 2c
 

Strawboss

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Here is a look at the GSR (gold:silver ratio). There is a rising wedge completing which is a good indication of an upcoming change in trend.

GSR 1.png
 

Strawboss

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Here is a chart of the miners bullish percent index...steadily grinding higher...

BPI.png
 

Strawboss

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I have never seen silver charted like this before - looks pretty cool...

cool.png
 

Strawboss

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Updated GSR...we have confirmation of the breakdown of the bearish wedge...

GSR 2.png
 

solarion

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GSR down to 78.5 ...that was fast.
 

Uglytruth

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Hey something is wrong with the Kitco chart. Silver is over $17 & that just can't happen so it's gotta be broken. I'm not getting my hopes up.
 

Strawboss

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Hey something is wrong with the Kitco chart. Silver is over $17 & that just can't happen so it's gotta be broken. I'm not getting my hopes up.
Chicken...quack...quack...quack...

LOL
 

Strawboss

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gsr3.png

I expect to see a retest of the breakdown trendline...

Many of the miners gave a pretty ugly candlestick today - so not surprised if we see a bit of consolidation/backfilling for next several days...

No cause for alarm...this GSR ratio chart signals a significant change in trend...which is bullish.
 

savvydon

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Today was a pretty wicked silver spanking... Seems pretty clear there is a struggle going on.
 

Strawboss

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Today was a pretty wicked silver spanking... Seems pretty clear there is a struggle going on.
Yes - there will be a struggle...Remember I said to expect a retest of the breakdown trendline? Not quite there yet...

And as far as this being a "wicked silver spanking"...lol. This was mild. I have been involved in the silver markets for many years now...and I have said many times over the years that you have to have balls of steel to play in this sandbox. Silver will rip your throat out. Viciously. What you saw today is nothing compared to what silver is capable of... Why?

Its a tiny, tiny market. Soooo tiny that just about any player with deep pockets can influence it (in the short term). And they DO. For all sorts of reasons. Sometimes its to scalp a profit. Other times its to influence its big brother gold... Right now its reacting to the rise in the US dollar. The rise in the US dollar is a counter trend really (short covering).

But - what I can say to you confidently is this...silver is money. Its constitutional money. It has been used as money for thousands of years. It is one of the most amazing elements...tremendous numbers of industrial uses...for its antimicrobial properties, its electrical conductivity properties, for its reflective properties...Its truly an amazing metal...

The GSR ratio will resolve itself...and we will see it trade back in the 50's which has been its average over the past many years. On an overshoot we will see the 40's again (perhaps lower than that on a spike).

We are in the early stages of what I think is going to be a tremendous bull market in PMs. There are going to be times when we are all celebrating and posting rockets...and there are going to be times when we are dazed and confused - having just had our throat ripped out. This is all part of it. If anyone cant handle the ups/downs then perhaps they should focus on markets that are less volatile.

Its important to remind yourself on days such as today of what the underlying fundamentals are...

Silver is in deficit...meaning there is more being consumed than being produced each year. And the consumption is increasing because there are so many industrial applications for silver.
Silver scrap recycling is at a 26 year low.
Silver is currently very undervalued when compared to gold.
There are not that many primary silver miners out there as most silver is a byproduct of other mining (copper, zinc, etc...)
The US government is going to be running trillion dollar plus deficits FOREVER.
We are still in the early stages of the baby boomers retiring - and the financial impacts they are going to have on Medicare, Social Security, and pensions is yet to come.

Yes - they can push paper in a vain attempt to cap the price of silver. But only to a point...and we are near that breaking point.

And the more they push the price down - the more pent up energy the silver market will acquire for its ascent. Many years ago Axstone posted a picture of a beach ball forcibly pushed underwater. It was a metaphor of the price suppression attempts and his view of what would ultimately happen when those efforts failed. And they did fail as gold went from $650 to $1900...and silver from $8 to $50. This bull market we are in now (even though it desnt seem like one)...is going to dwarf the last one. Bigly.

Just my opinion...

GSR 1.png
 
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Uglytruth

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we will see it trade back in the 50's which has been its average over the past many years. On an overshoot we will see the 40's again
So we should buy as many oz of silver as we can with the thought of selling at least part of it when it hits 50's & trade that for gold to get more oz or fiat profit? That would be about a 60% gain / profit right?
 

Strawboss

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So we should buy as many oz of silver as we can with the thought of selling at least part of it when it hits 50's & trade that for gold to get more oz or fiat profit? That would be about a 60% gain / profit right?
That would be a very, very solid strategy. And if you can get a local coin shop to play ball...you can actually do it without incurring any capital gains taxes...
 

savvydon

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Just my opinion...
I happen to agree with most of it. The beauty is, when silver is really getting spanked, that's just another opportunity to buy more of it (As long as you are not diverting funds that would otherwise be used to pay off debt).
 

the_shootist

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Today was a pretty wicked silver spanking... Seems pretty clear there is a struggle going on.
There's always a struggle going on and I'm certain the high rollers are making money hand over fist at every opportunity
 

Weatherman

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So we should buy as many oz of silver as we can with the thought of selling at least part of it when it hits 50's & trade that for gold to get more oz or fiat profit? That would be about a 60% gain / profit right?
My view is that we should buy physical silver (or gold) to store securely as insurance against the financial disaster we will know as the transition, and to preserve some real wealth for the other side. However, I do not buy physical silver with an intention of selling some of it at $35 (a double!), or $50, or $100, or another higher fiat price. The buy-sell spread on physical is not as good as for stocks, and it is a PITA to move physical to sell (especially if in a rush during a financially difficult time). For funds that I allocate to investment for buy low now and sell higher later, I much prefer to buy good quality miner stock through a brokerage. I expect to gain significant leverage as the price of silver rises, and I can liquidate any of it in a moment with a simple sell transaction. My favorite choices now are WPM (primarily silver) and RGLD (primarily gold), but I also like PAAS and AEM. All of them are backed by real metal in the ground. They pay higher dividends than I can get as interest in a bank savings account (so waiting for the price to move higher isn't as painful as it would be with physical), and they provide far more leveraged appreciation than physical or any bank can offer. I recognize a risk that TEOTWAWKI could happen without warning and over a weekend, so I may not be able to liquidate my mining shares, but that is a risk I am willing to take with some of my investment funds. YMMV so DYODD, and do it the way that works best for you.
 

Thecrensh

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My view is that we should buy physical silver (or gold) to store securely as insurance against the financial disaster we will know as the transition, and to preserve some real wealth for the other side. However, I do not buy physical silver with an intention of selling some of it at $35 (a double!), or $50, or $100, or another higher fiat price. The buy-sell spread on physical is not as good as for stocks, and it is a PITA to move physical to sell (especially if in a rush during a financially difficult time). For funds that I allocate to investment for buy low now and sell higher later, I much prefer to buy good quality miner stock through a brokerage. I expect to gain significant leverage as the price of silver rises, and I can liquidate any of it in a moment with a simple sell transaction. My favorite choices now are WPM (primarily silver) and RGLD (primarily gold), but I also like PAAS and AEM. All of them are backed by real metal in the ground. They pay higher dividends than I can get as interest in a bank savings account (so waiting for the price to move higher isn't as painful as it would be with physical), and they provide far more leveraged appreciation than physical or any bank can offer. I recognize a risk that TEOTWAWKI could happen without warning and over a weekend, so I may not be able to liquidate my mining shares, but that is a risk I am willing to take with some of my investment funds. YMMV so DYODD, and do it the way that works best for you.
So you're not in agreement that having 500-odd oz of silver on hand is a good strategy?