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Weatherman

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My view is that we should buy physical silver (or gold) to store securely as insurance against the financial disaster we will know as the transition, and to preserve some real wealth for the other side.
Tell me which part of this is difficult to understand, and I will try to explain it better. :beer:
 

Strawboss

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Here is the most recent COT report for gold. I pay particular attention to what the swaps dealers are doing - as they seem to have a very good track record of being short at tops...and long at bottoms... in other words...if you want to know whats gonna happen to the price of gold...watch the swaps dealers...

gold cot.png


From the current setup - its reasonable to assume at least a $100 rise in the POG from here...and the potential for a $300+ move...said upwards move to last at least a few weeks (if a $100 move) to a few months if its a bigger move. The swaps dealers are the ones saying this is going to happen...right here...right now - and you can look at their track record for yourself. They seem to always be on the right side of trends...

So - why posting this on a silver thread? What do you think silver does when gold moves? LOL

Oh - remember me saying I was expecting a backtest of the GSR ratio breakdown after it fell through the bearish rising wedge?

gold cot.png
GSR4.png
 

Strawboss

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Everything is lined up for a rally in the metals. We are locked and loaded. The only thing missing is a catalyst to light the fire...and my guess is its gonna be either the Israel/Iran/Syria thing (tanks on border) or the Jerusalem embassy thing...but whatever its gonna be - its gonna happen in the next few days/weeks.

If I am wrong (always possible) - I believe it would be a brief but sharp correction as a way to clear out the stops below $1300 in gold and $16 in silver. If that was to occur - I would reposition my options on the mining sector to a shorter duration (6 months instead of LEAPs) that is slightly above the money.
 

Weatherman

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I too feel a strong rally will start soon, but I am keeping a significant amount of cash in reserve. The dreaded summer doldrums of May through July are not a time when I am eager to bet more on the upside.
 

Varmint Hunter

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Here is the most recent COT report for gold. I pay particular attention to what the swaps dealers are doing - as they seem to have a very good track record of being short at tops...and long at bottoms... in other words...if you want to know whats gonna happen to the price of gold...watch the swaps dealers...

View attachment 103748

From the current setup - its reasonable to assume at least a $100 rise in the POG from here...and the potential for a $300+ move...said upwards move to last at least a few weeks (if a $100 move) to a few months if its a bigger move. The swaps dealers are the ones saying this is going to happen...right here...right now - and you can look at their track record for yourself. They seem to always be on the right side of trends...

So - why posting this on a silver thread? What do you think silver does when gold moves? LOL

Oh - remember me saying I was expecting a backtest of the GSR ratio breakdown after it fell through the bearish rising wedge?

View attachment 103748 View attachment 103749
Thanks Strawboss for this information!
Could you please educate me on where to find these charts showing the swap dealers activity?
Many thanks!
 

Strawboss

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Thanks Strawboss for this information!
Could you please educate me on where to find these charts showing the swap dealers activity?
Many thanks!
I subscribe to COTbase - but there might be free sources out there as well I am sure. Of course you can always get the data yourself directly from the CFTC every Friday afternoon at this link https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm - but that would require that you collect, assemble and then analyze the data graphically in some fashion...

You have to make sure you are viewing the disaggregated data (which is where the swaps data is broken out into its own category)...and not the classic data which lumps the swaps dealers in with the commercials.

Its just easier for me to subscribe and have the data at my fingertips than to waste time gathering it myself.
 

Strawboss

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Here is a zoomed in view of the gold COT focusing just on the past 12 months. Again - focusing on the swaps dealers - it is very rare for them to be net long...and historically the ONLY times this happens is at bottoms. The swaps dealers are net short 99% of the time. Let that sink in for a minute so you truly grasp what I am saying.

gold cot2.png


I don't believe there is a more powerful signal than when the swaps dealers are net long (as they are now). You typically only get these sorts of setups once every few years (this is our 3rd one in the past 12 months)...

Combined with the GSR...this is a POWERFUL setup with an extraordinarily favorable risk/reward ratio - which is why I am positioned in LEAP options - something I have only done 1 other time in my life.

This is the sort of trade you only get a couple cracks at in your life...

DYODD...
 

Varmint Hunter

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A big thank you StrawBoss!!
I really appreciate you sharing this info with us & it looks like we may be in for some exciting times.
 

Strawboss

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Well - the rally in the metals hasn't played out as I thought it would. In fact - they have mostly traded sideways the past several months. Having said that though - I am becoming more and more convinced that $14 silver is a long term low. I have mentioned this price for silver several times before going back the past few years as its the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from the initial low in silver of $2.52 to the high near $50 reached back in 2011.

We have had a couple of bottoms at the $14 area and price has hovered slightly above it the past several months.

The GSR ratio is stubbornly above 80 which is at nosebleed levels.

I have become convinced that $14 silver represents bedrock. That isn't a guarantee of course - just my opinion. That means that silver can only go either sideways...or up from here. And its been going sideways for the past few months.

I think it would be wise to move your gold into silver at this juncture. The risk:reward heavily favors this.
 

Thecrensh

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Well - the rally in the metals hasn't played out as I thought it would. In fact - they have mostly traded sideways the past several months. Having said that though - I am becoming more and more convinced that $14 silver is a long term low. I have mentioned this price for silver several times before going back the past few years as its the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from the initial low in silver of $2.52 to the high near $50 reached back in 2011.

We have had a couple of bottoms at the $14 area and price has hovered slightly above it the past several months.

The GSR ratio is stubbornly above 80 which is at nosebleed levels.

I have become convinced that $14 silver represents bedrock. That isn't a guarantee of course - just my opinion. That means that silver can only go either sideways...or up from here. And its been going sideways for the past few months.

I think it would be wise to move your gold into silver at this juncture. The risk:reward heavily favors this.
Sorry guys...I pulled the trigger on some ASEs, so I'm to blame for the PM doldrums (contrary to what you may read in the papers, blogs and online). Apologies to all.
 

gringott

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Thanks for confessing, Thecrensh.
 

Son of Gloin

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Not to worry, everyone. I just dropped a bunch of frn's on the bland looking yellow metal. Silver is almost surely going to explode upward from here. Get ready...
 

solarion

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I too have been stacking white copper a bit at a time. The never ending blue light special relative to gold and the FRN cannot go on forever. That silver's ATH in absolute dollar terms remains Jan of 1980...nearly 39 years ago is beyond ridiculous...nevermind the Hunt brothers fairy tale. Gold is +43% in absolute dollar terms while silver is -71% during that time. lol

Meanwhile the cumulative rate of inflation during that time in the unit of account, the US dollar, is 206%. An ounce of silver that cost $49.45 in 1980 would be $151 in 2018...yet one can obtain 10.5 ounces of silver at spot for that. There are no other commodities that behave this way...it's clearly suppressed and does not reflect the principles of supply and demand.
 

gringott

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The weirdest thing to me is that silver and gold in the grand scheme of things meaning asset prices and size of the market are literally small potatoes. Plenty of these fat cats could corner the whole market if they wanted [or were allowed to].
 

gringott

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Not to worry, everyone. I just dropped a bunch of frn's on the bland looking yellow metal. Silver is almost surely going to explode upward from here. Get ready...
I too have been stacking white copper a bit at a time. The never ending blue light special relative to gold and the FRN cannot go on forever. That silver's ATH in absolute dollar terms remains Jan of 1980...nearly 39 years ago is beyond ridiculous...nevermind the Hunt brothers fairy tale. Gold is +43% in absolute dollar terms while silver is -71% during that time. lol

Meanwhile the cumulative rate of inflation during that time in the unit of account, the US dollar, is 206%. An ounce of silver that cost $49.45 in 1980 would be $151 in 2018...yet one can obtain 10.5 ounces of silver at spot for that. There are no other commodities that behave this way...it's clearly suppressed and does not reflect the principles of supply and demand.

What is this, Oprah? Everybody is confessing.
 

solarion

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Plenty of these fat cats could corner the whole market if they wanted [or were allowed to].
Haven't the fat cats already done that with their ETF scams, commodity "exchanges", and leveraged contracts? They swap counterfeit gold and silver paper/electrons back and forth while hardly being bothered with the underlying asset allegedly being "traded". Obviously if an "unlicensed" individual or group of individuals were to do these things they'd quickly be kidnapped and stashed away in a rape cage, but so called "market makers" do these things on a daily basis and call it a "service".
 

gringott

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Haven't the fat cats already done that with their ETF scams, commodity "exchanges", and leveraged contracts? They swap counterfeit gold and silver paper/electrons back and forth while hardly being bothered with the underlying asset allegedly being "traded". Obviously if an "unlicensed" individual or group of individuals were to do these things they'd quickly be kidnapped and stashed away in a rape cage, but so called "market makers" do these things on a daily basis and call it a "service".
You make good points. Obviously, you are correct, the fat cats are hidden. I have noticed every asset class they want to control they use ETFs exchanges and fake gambling products to control prices. The game is rigged for the most part. We need free markets but I am afraid we will not have them in my lifetime.
 

solarion

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It takes major shocks to wake people up. You won't catch people with first hand experience of the great depression mindlessly trusting banksters. Sadly most of those folks have died off or are simply ignored and people mindlessly trust banksters once again.

Perhaps stuffing shiny things under one's pillow(or in a nearby collection of dihydrogen monoxide molecules) is an archaic tradition and banksters can now be trusted. ...lol Okay that last bit is just ridiculous...don't trust banksters...our grandparents/great grandparents were not stupid, they merely experienced that which most today have not...and hopefully will not experience. For myself I'm not taking that chance. Banksters can go F themselves.
 

Thecrensh

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I have a deal for you all. In order to ensure an upward spike in the PM market, I propose this: all of you chip in and pool your money. I'll sell you all my silver coins/bars at the incredible price of $50 per troy ounce. Once you do this, and rid me of my devil metal, the prices will skyrocket.

Guaranteed.

Deal?
 

solarion

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Fifty per? Is that alot?

ALOT.jpg
 

Weatherman

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I have become convinced that $14 silver represents bedrock. That isn't a guarantee of course - just my opinion. That means that silver can only go either sideways...or up from here. And its been going sideways for the past few months.

I think it would be wise to move your gold into silver at this juncture. The risk:reward heavily favors this.
When 'da Boss speaks, silver snaps to attention!
Silver.jpg

I would add that the risk/reward for allocating more FRNs to silver looks very good to me.
 

louky

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It takes major shocks to wake people up. You won't catch people with first hand experience of the great depression mindlessly trusting banksters. Sadly most of those folks have died off or are simply ignored and people mindlessly trust banksters once again.

Perhaps stuffing shiny things under one's pillow(or in a nearby collection of dihydrogen monoxide molecules) is an archaic tradition and banksters can now be trusted. ...lol Okay that last bit is just ridiculous...don't trust banksters...our grandparents/great grandparents were not stupid, they merely experienced that which most today have not...and hopefully will not experience. For myself I'm not taking that chance. Banksters can go F themselves.
IMG_20181103_055832.jpg
 

solarion

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Which is where we get wise expressions about the past being prologue and those that ignore history being doomed to repeat it.

It doesn't take a genius to figure out that the current monetary system is not sustainable indefinitely. Even with a roughly 40% rise in rates over the past year(10y US paper) overall rates remain near historic lows. It's tough to see how rates could rise to historic averages of between 5 - 7% without things blowing up...given the mountains of debt out there. Perhaps I'm blind, but I don't see it happening. What's the cost to service the $21.7t in US federal regime debt alone if say 10y paper pays a 6% yield? Who wants that crap while it's dropping in price and rising in yield anyway? ...I sure don't.
 

stAGgering

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Here is a balancing slight, of silver analysis-"essesssess"- Gollum
Only part I wish was included, USD position during referenced times.
But hey, what the hell do I know ?

 

solarion

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We've all seen the metals taken down during stock market turmoil. Silver in particular gets beaten up badly. To me it's just more evidence that paper is being passed off as actual metal. Most don't even recognize what's being presented at this point. The video above repeatedly references "the silver market", but doesn't mention, ya know, actual metal even once. Silver stocks, silver ETF "shares", silver contracts, etc are NOT silver. They're just bankster frauds designed to make people believe they have metal "exposure".

For myself, I obtain actual metal...I don't deal in bankster fictions. Never have I seen anyone skip an ETF share off the surface of water more times than I can a silver Eagle. The things are just perfectly weighted and skip like crazy. Unfortunately it takes a lot of practice, so I'm saving up for more ammo.

USDebtClock.png
 

solarion

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According to US Debtclock, in order to get back to the bi-metalic standards of 1913 relative to the US dollar...gold would have to be 4x higher than it is now and silver would have to be 43x higher. An ounce of gold was fixed at $29.15 or 11.04 ounces of silver. Today an ounce of gold costs 85.47 ounces of silver...which is just insane. World production is currently 8.42(Ag) per ounce of gold according to the same source. Until I find a valid reason for silver to be so hated I'm going to keep stacking it...something is way not right here. An ounce of silver is a measly 5.36x as much in nominal dollar terms today than it was in 1913! Ag still hasn't set a new ATH since 1980. No commodity with allegedly limited supply should be incessantly dropping in value in nominal dollar terms...particularly as the unit of account is also being continuously debased.

Forced to speculate I would say that the paper gold price is being controlled by controlling the paper silver price...a much smaller market. Since we all know there's a historical relationship between gold and silver prices, it stands to reason that this can be used against PM stackers/investors.
 

Uglytruth

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181 : 1 paper to silver ratio?
92.26 : 1 Paper to gold ratio?

Would love to see the history of that in your face manipulation.
 

solarion

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181 : 1 paper to silver ratio?
92.26 : 1 Paper to gold ratio?

Would love to see the history of that in your face manipulation.
As with most successful scams it's in plain sight.

CashSettlement.png


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_contract

How can it be a metals market if the exchange itself can specify settlement in cash and not the allgedly "underlying" asset? The same is being done with bitcoin btw...where a contract for "bitcoin" doesn't even require that anyone actually have or provide "bitcoin".

These are nothing other than wagers for cash based upon price action that's disconnected from price discovery mechanisms by the very "markets" themselves...they're not commodity markets at all. It's just fakery stacked atop fakery.
 

keef

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You make good points. Obviously, you are correct, the fat cats are hidden. I have noticed every asset class they want to control they use ETFs exchanges and fake gambling products to control prices. The game is rigged for the most part. We need free markets but I am afraid we will not have them in my lifetime.
Not only do we not have free markets, you're gonna have a hard time running from Homeland Security when they come to confiscate your silver.

Hoard silver?/ check / He's definitely on the list.

The question should be, "Can I outrun a dog with this heavy-ass bag of silver on my back?"
 

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Not only do we not have free markets, you're gonna have a hard time running from Homeland Security when they come to confiscate your silver.

Hoard silver?/ check / He's definitely on the list.

The question should be, "Can I outrun a dog with this heavy-ass bag of silver on my back?"
If they confiscate silver it will be while it is cheap. This would ensure they own it before the price explodes.

They better hurry and get with it if they are going to.
 

solarion

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Silver ownership has never even been pretend restricted by goobermint drones to my knowledge. The US federal regime tricked Americans into giving up their gold and then convinced them gold ownership was illegal at one point, but never silver.

It seems unlikely either will Ag or Au will be "confiscated", but both are being suppressed with paper scams.

Edit: I suppose you could argue silver restriction when the US mint fails to make available enough silver eagles to meet demand...in violation of US "law", but when they do this, I simply get silver elsewhere.
 

Strawboss

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$14 Silver...

BEDROCK
 

Weatherman

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Here is your silver quiz for today: Which line breaks first, the Strawboss bottom at $14, or the bankster ceiling at $15? My bet is that Strawboss will win this one!

Silver.jpg