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Stock markets are in turmoil. What sector will benefit most?

What sector benefits most from volatility caused by Covid, political unrest and strong inflation?

  • Energy and natural resources, predominantly oil and natural gas.

    Votes: 12 52.2%
  • Agricultural products including grains, corn, soy, cattle and hogs.

    Votes: 13 56.5%
  • Primary precious metals Au, Ag, Pt, Pd.

    Votes: 11 47.8%
  • Secondary elements such as Uranium, Rare Earths, Copper, Aluminum, etc.

    Votes: 8 34.8%
  • Tech stocks including FAANG, I.T. and Meme stocks.

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Financials including banking, stock futures or government issued treasuries & bonds

    Votes: 2 8.7%
  • Other . . . I'll explain below.

    Votes: 4 17.4%

  • Total voters
    23

Jodster

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Oil and natural gas seem to be stealing the headlines lately, but it's impossible to ignore the runs in Uranium ad precious metals.
Powell and the central banks no doubt will try the stimulus tool, which seems to benefit the financial sectors.
A prolonged war and sanctions against Russia, and possibly China, takes a lot of manufacturing and refining of mined minerals offline.

What are your thoughts on safe havens in volatile times?
 

solarion

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Of the list there, I believe the biggest beneficiaries will be the PMs, though gold will be a dog compared to the others on a percentage basis. Not intended to hate on gold, but it's expensive relative to the others, so the others will catch up. Palladium too would be a dog, but the sanctions on Russia have turned it around in a big way. Uranium and uranium producers are also going to shock people. So my picks are platinum, silver, and uranium...in that order.
 

Jodster

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Yeah my dark horse is agriculture. It takes petroleum to run the mining machines for elements such as potash. That just went up.
Then to transport it to markets, that went up.
So the effect on poorer quality fertilizers will transmit to worse grain harvests, and ultimately higher costs for meat.
 

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the easy money has been made on most of the list. i would look at what's beaten down - stocks that have been hammered by russia russia russia or shorting the overvalued US 10 year treasury bond
 

Buck

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energy and banking

energy is a weapon and banking is their profit center

as they don't like metals, and foundational industries don't always fare well in downturns, that leaves tech and i think they've ridden a bubble for a very long time, once any corporation debt becomes due, they'll ride that out on the backs of fewer employees, weakening their R&D but not what they already have ready for the market (i've read many tech firms have software updates ready for a few years forward, so, currently they'll only flatten out, some will crash, but most will survive if their products are good and they have deep pockets or good .gov connections)

risk-on will be mitigated...

however...

imho, there aren't enough day traders to move any market, counter to what the majors can / will do, basically it's the major investors markets, to do what they want with it

employees aren't going to dump their portfolios or do many changes to it between now and 'then'

so, the professionals will step in and control it to the point, (i have no idea what will trigger any event), since it's literally their game, in their hands, with them at the controls, with current valuations based upon quite literally, Nothing...

so, really, idk what to prognosticate other than GL and watch what they do, not what they say
 

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Kimberly Clark is a big toilet paper manufacturer and the way I see it is that the USA Government will need a lot of toilet paper to its print money on
 
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#48Fan

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I'm going with defense. New arms deals are coming in hot and plenty.
 

Jodster

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the easy money has been made on most of the list. i would look at what's beaten down - stocks that have been hammered by russia russia russia or shorting the overvalued US 10 year treasury bond
Yeah that seems like the most obvious play but my Blackrock iShares ERUS got locked at midnight last night. I was going to buy today but no dice.
It’s been a hot topic in the Lunatic Fringe thread. Russia would be an awesome investment at these prices, but the Russia-phobia is pushing financial markets to break tradition and sometimes the rules.
 

BigJim#1-8

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Look at the top line...LOL
 

solarion

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Just in time for Arab spring 2.0. People are going to starve to death over this.
 

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bought a lot of the hard stuff over the last two years -- fertilizer, food, oil. today i sold some NTR, CF, XOM, ADM

never comfortable in the mainstream - start looking for the exits when they arrive
 

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I noticed not a single vote for tech stocks above. People are running from speculation in tech into physical tangibles.

see that the nazdak is down 20 percent. well deserved hair cut
 

solarion

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We're very plainly heading into a commodities super cycle...the likes of which will make the 2000-2015 cycle look like a scooter. That run took 5 years to triple the CRB, this one has done it in 20 months...and surging energy prices have only begun to affect prices.

1646692363428.png


Forecasts:

1646692469505.png


The sectors that will do the best are the sectors that are kicking ass right now. Energy and commodity producers. Gold, silver, PGMs, lithium, uranium, nickel, etc.
 

Goldbrix

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Crude Oil, Nat Gas NS miners of Gold and Sliver.
 

nickndfl

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Buying puts or selling calls. It's looking ugly now.
 

Jarrod32

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If anyone is looking for a way to play these sectors, these are the top 10 holdings of a Natural Resource ETF ticker symbol NANR.

Top Holdings​

NameSymbol% Assets
Exxon Mobil CorpXOM10.44%
Chevron CorpCVX9.43%
Freeport-McMoRan IncFCX6.61%
Archer-Daniels Midland CoADM6.25%
Corteva IncCTVA5.73%
Newmont CorpNEM5.13%
EOG Resources IncEOG5.03%
ConocoPhillipsCOP4.86%
Nutrien LtdNTR.TO4.49%
Barrick Gold CorpABX.TO4.19%

Fund Summary​

The fund generally invests substantially all, but at least 80%, of its total assets in the securities comprising the index. The index comprises publicly traded large- and mid-capitalization U.S. and Canadian companies in the natural resources and commodities businesses that meet certain investability requirements and are classified within the sub-industries of one of three natural resources categories: energy, metals & mining or agriculture. The fund is non-diversified.

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Goldbrix

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If anyone is looking for a way to play these sectors, these are the top 10 holdings of a Natural Resource ETF ticker symbol NANR.

Top Holdings​

NameSymbol% Assets
Exxon Mobil CorpXOM10.44%
Chevron CorpCVX9.43%
Freeport-McMoRan IncFCX6.61%
Archer-Daniels Midland CoADM6.25%
Corteva IncCTVA5.73%
Newmont CorpNEM5.13%
EOG Resources IncEOG5.03%
ConocoPhillipsCOP4.86%
Nutrien LtdNTR.TO4.49%
Barrick Gold CorpABX.TO4.19%

Fund Summary​

The fund generally invests substantially all, but at least 80%, of its total assets in the securities comprising the index. The index comprises publicly traded large- and mid-capitalization U.S. and Canadian companies in the natural resources and commodities businesses that meet certain investability requirements and are classified within the sub-industries of one of three natural resources categories: energy, metals & mining or agriculture. The fund is non-diversified.

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I'm happy with my hold on GOLD - Barrick. Did the bit with Tar Sands and Crude before the Spec. bubble burst. Did good but my long term view is that Gold and Silver miners are the place to be until a new "King of Currency" is crowned.
Lefties worldwide are hatin' on crude at this time, but it will be hard to fight wars on Solar and Wind power. YMMV
 

gringott

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Meme stocks are great if you get in before the pump and exit before the dump.
 

Goldbrix

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Look at the equity markets. They are on a yo-yo, UP a little DOWN a lot, UP a little DOWN again....
As a kid I learned what happens when you play too long with a yo-yo, The String Breaks.
It is just a matter of time for this economic string to break and stocks crash, even the miners. BUT the miners and commodities have always recovered faster and none went to zero value. Stocks have and some never recovered.
 

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solarion

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Shorting stuff works great...right up to the point it doesn't. Are US treasury yields going negative in nominal terms? I kind of doubt it, but who knows with this merry band of criminals running things.

Anyway yields are flopping all over the place. This is just the past month. Complete insanity.

1647011006391.png
 

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Shorting stuff works great...right up to the point it doesn't. Are US treasury yields going negative in nominal terms? I kind of doubt it, but who knows with this merry band of criminals running things.

Anyway yields are flopping all over the place. This is just the past month. Complete insanity.

View attachment 249197

i saw it clearly - and why my call in this thread has paid off. russia/war crap = temporary jump in gov bond prices. reversion = profit

take big easy profit here - or squeeze out another unit or two? either one will probably work out

got lucky
 

solarion

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I'll take the sure thing and hold steady. Commodity producers. I want leverage on things of real value, as those things of intrinsic value will seemingly rise massively while fake phony fiat currency dissolves rapidly.
 

Juristic Person

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Look at the equity markets. They are on a yo-yo, UP a little DOWN a lot, UP a little DOWN again....
As a kid I learned what happens when you play too long with a yo-yo, The String Breaks.
It is just a matter of time for this economic string to break and stocks crash, even the miners. BUT the miners and commodities have always recovered faster and none went to zero value. Stocks have and some never recovered.

Crypo is the biggest yo-yo I’ve ever seen...
 

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solarion

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heard it said that crypto = 5x leveraged bet on tech stocks
Meaning? That some banker made a crypto derivative? I fail to see the significance. Bankers find ways to put leverage on everything. A bitcoin in your own wallet has nothing whatsoever to do with tech stocks. It cannot be used to short, levered, or moved without your consent.
 

Juristic Person

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Meaning? That some banker made a crypto derivative? I fail to see the significance. Bankers find ways to put leverage on everything. A bitcoin in your own wallet has nothing whatsoever to do with tech stocks. It cannot be used to short, levered, or moved without your consent.

He might be referring to the blockchain or the software application of certain alt coins for tech companies. Either way, I don’t agree with the connection. The volatility of crypto right now has more to do with new players coming in and the rapid and instant exchanges in and out of various alt coins.

Bitcoin is unique for being the 1st, the most widely accepted and its limited supply. I’m in it for the long haul rather than short term gains. And I’m by no means “all in”. Diversification is the safest bet IMO.
 

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commods getting smoked by inverse 10 yr since victory lap post in quote

View attachment 249196
Just like the "Thread Killer", always around.

Never bothers me, though. I have become extremely thick skinned trading anything metals for the last 25 years.
Some good, some not so much.
Pretty sure we are (in the overall) up from here.
 

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Meaning? That some banker made a crypto derivative? I fail to see the significance. Bankers find ways to put leverage on everything. A bitcoin in your own wallet has nothing whatsoever to do with tech stocks. It cannot be used to short, levered, or moved without your consent.

he was referring to correlation
 

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Just like the "Thread Killer", always around.

Never bothers me, though. I have become extremely thick skinned trading anything metals for the last 25 years.
Some good, some not so much.
Pretty sure we are (in the overall) up from here.

the (intl banker) HATES commods, including AU. and use all of their weapons to suppress/debase them

tough going, fighting the monster that issues the currency and operates in secret
 

solarion

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he was referring to correlation
There's no question that cryptos have been correlated to the tech indices since banksters rolled out their "futures" scam for bitcoin several months back. Those "futures" btw are backed 100% by debt dollars. Zero bitcoin at all anywhere.

So no, a bitcoin is not leverage on tech stocks. A bankster derivative product may be, I don't know, because I hate banksters and everything they stand for. I hope that some day stupid idiots wake up and systematically exterminate bankers from the Earth. As well as the politicians in their pockets.
 

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the (intl banker) HATES commods, including AU. and use all of their weapons to suppress/debase them

tough going, fighting the monster that issues the currency and operates in secret
One thing I will say for sure. The volatility in metals keeps me from gambling in Vegas.
No fun in it, in comparison.