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Tesla in ‘Code Red Situation’ as Sell-Off Exceeds 20%

gnome

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How many Decades will it take to build that storage?
Oh, I'm guessing a week or two. :-D

https://www.powermag.com/worlds-largest-for-now-battery-storage-project-online-in-california/

World’s Largest—For Now—Battery Storage Project Online in California
A battery energy storage project in California is set to be the world’s largest in terms of generation capacity when the facility is fully energized later in September.


McCarthy Building Companies’ Renewable Energy & Storage group, based in Phoenix, Arizona, on Sept. 1 said the company had recently completed construction of LS Power’s 250-MW Gateway Energy Storage Project (Figure 1) in San Diego County. The Gateway installation is the latest in a series of large battery energy storage projects in California, a state counting on energy storage to help supplement its baseload power supply, and replace generation lost due to the closure of thermal power plants.

California wants to use battery storage to provide greater stability and reliability for the state’s power grid. Power customers in California recently endured another series of rolling blackouts instituted by the grid operator, California Independent System Operator (CAISO), as a major heat wave sent demand for electricity soaring.

Project Will Provide 250 MW
Gateway Energy Storage is currently energized at 230 MW and is on track to reach 250 MW this month, according to McCarthy. The project was launched and connected to CAISO’s grid in June, with an initial 62.5 MW of storage. LS Power said the project reached 200 MW of capacity on Aug. 1, with an additional 30 MW added on Aug. 17.

The facility is located in the located in the East Otay Mesa community in San Diego County. LS Power worked with NEC Energy Solutions to integrate the Gateway project, which utilizes LG Chem battery cells for its storage.


“We’re proud to be a part of this landmark energy storage project for LS Power Group in Southern California,” said Dhruv Patel, senior vice president of EPC within the Renewable Energy & Storage group at McCarthy, in a statement Tuesday. “We look forward to continuing our work on the project, delivering cost-effective, clean energy solutions to help the state meet its ambitious renewable energy goals.”


1. The Gateway Energy Storage project is located in San Diego County, California. At 230 MW of generation capacity, and soon to be at 250 MW, it is currently the largest battery energy storage project in the world. Courtesy: McCarthy Building Companies
The Gateway project has a 15-year offtake agreement with Southern California Edison (SoCal Edison), and another long-term agreement with Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E). Initially, the system will offer one hour of energy storage, increasing to nearly three hours in 2021 and to four hours later.

“McCarthy has built a fantastic project at Gateway Energy Storage, which was unique in the industry in terms of its size and complexity,” said Cody Hill, vice president of energy storage at LS Power, in a statement Tuesday. “They are a great partner and I would not hesitate to work with McCarthy again on future power plant and energy storage construction projects.”

The McCarthy Renewable Energy & Storage group provides engineering, procurement, construct (EPC) services on utility-scale solar installation projects and renewable energy storage projects across the U.S. The company Tuesday said it “has completed or is in the process of constructing more than 48 utility-scale clean energy projects in communities from coast to coast, representing a combined capacity of more than 3.6 GW of clean energy production and 350 MW of energy storage.”

Tesla Project Likely Will Be Larger
The Gateway project is larger in generation capacity than Tesla and PG&E’s Moss Landing energy storage system in Monterey, California, which had been touted as coming online in 2021 as the world’s largest. That project, using 256 of Tesla’s lithium-ion Megapacks, will be able to dispatch up to 730 MWh of energy to the electrical grid at a maximum rate of 182.5 MW for up to four hours. Tesla and PG&E, though, have the option to upgrade Moss Landing’s capacity to as much as 1,200 MW, which Tesla has said could power every home in San Francisco for six hours. A project of that size would dwarf any existing battery storage project.

The Gateway and Moss Landing projects are just two of the battery energy storage installations being developed across California, a state that has ramped up its use of renewable energy in recent years while phasing out electricity from coal, nuclear, and natural gas-fired power plants. Critics of the state’s energy strategy have said the elimination of baseload power sources is a threat to the region’s power supply, in part due to the intermittent nature of renewable energy generation.

The August blackouts were considered California’s first non-wildfire-related outages tied to the power supply since 2001, when Enron and other energy traders manipulated California’s electricity market. Authorities still are looking for what led to the blackouts, which were ordered by CAISO as it directed utilities around the state to shed their power loads.

Most analysts think there were several contributing factors, including higher-than-normal power demand; an inadequate transmission system; an overreliance on renewable energy; and problems with generation from the state’s remaining gas-fired power plants.

Problem of Rolling Blackouts
CAISO began enacting rolling blackouts the evening of Aug. 14, and blamed the outages on “high heat and increased electricity demand.” CAISO officials, in discussing the high temperatures at that time across the state, had said they would have adequate power reserves available for the 80% of California’s grid that it manages.

PG&E on Aug. 15 said CAISO directed the utility to shut off power for up to 250,000 customers to conserve supply; PG&E said outages ultimately impacted 220,000 customers. The outages affected areas along the central coast and Central Valley, including Monterey, Santa Cruz, and San Joaquin counties. The state’s three biggest utilities—PG&E, SoCal Edison, and San Diego Gas and Electric—turned off power to more than 410,000 homes and businesses for about an hour at a time that day, after CAISO for a second straight day declared a Stage 3 emergency, citing in a news release “increased electricity demand, the unexpected loss of a 470-megawatt [gas-fired] power plant, and loss of nearly 1,000 MW of wind power.”

The move came as temperatures around the state topped 100F in several areas, and the use of air conditioners soared. California also imports more electricity than any other state, meaning problems elsewhere have a cascading effect in the Golden State. The mid-August heat wave had spread across the Western U.S., and California could not import as much power as usual, which exacerbated the problem.

Analysts noted that on both Aug. 14 and 15, as the sun set—and utility-scale solar arrays and rooftop solar panels stopped generating power—the state’s supply of electricity fell, at the same time many customers were cranking up their air conditioners to cool homes and other buildings that had heated up during the day.

Battery storage is expected to help the state’s utilities avoid the need for such load-shedding efforts. Batteries provide the ability to dispatch to the power grid when electricity demand rises, which in California is often when the sun is setting.

Matthew Hoza, manager of Energy Analysis for Colorado-based BTU Analytics, in an analysis of the California situation said that as the situation worsened on Aug. 14, and power prices “rose to nearly $1,000/MW … Energy storage operators were able to capitalize on that price spike by aggressively dispatching during the two-hour price run, and then re-charging when prices dropped.” Hoza said that “With about 4 GW of, mostly longer-duration, energy storage projects in the Lower 48 [states] under construction or close to construction, expect batteries to grow their influence over power markets.”

—Darrell Proctor is associate editor for POWER (@DarrellProctor1, @POWERmagazine).
 

Buck

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Late afternoon, early evening. After solar production has peaked, but heat hasn't dissipated and people come home and crank the AC.
LOL

that's what they say, i've been through LA, earlier in the year, last year, idk, and they were reporting rotating black-outs in the middle of the day

and they were talking on the radio as if this is the 'new normal'

what they say is much different from what they do

and this battery solar is nothing but a money dump and it's not efficient nor will it last beyond our last taxpayer dime....
 

Buck

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oh yeah, and look who the 'key' players are...that's all i needed to know, Subsidy Kings and Queens

fleecing us is what they do best
 

Joe King

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Oh, I'm guessing a week or two. :-D
Keep guessing. Even the 1200Mwh project mentioned, will barely make a dent in CA's daily usage of 50Gwh's.

To put it in perspective, at current production rates it would take approx 500 years to produce enough batteries to store just one days worth of electric usage for the nation.
So how many Decades would it take just to take care of one day of usage in CA? Even your article says the 1200Mwh facility would only store 6 hours of usage for the city of San Francisco.
....and at what cost will those batteries be produced? How many more lithium and cobalt mines will we need in order to make all these batteries?
....and once those batteries are made, how many more will need to be made on an annual basis in order to replace the worn out batteries?

What's needed is a whole new battery technology that doesn't require so much toxic materials to produce, and that last longer than current lithium ion batteries. After a certain nuber of charge/discharge cycles, they need to be replaced in order to maintain the same depth of charge.
 

gnome

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South Australia’s Tesla ‘Big Battery’ saved consumers $116 million in electricity costs last year
SIMON THOMSEN
- MARCH 9, 2020
2 MIN READ

The Hornsdale Power-Reserve
The $200 million “Big Battery”, installed in South Australia in 2017 by Elon Musk’s Tesla company, has almost paid for itself, saving consumers around $116 million in higher power costs in 2019, a study by engineering and project management firm Aurecon has concluded.
That figure is nearly treble the $40 million saving in 2018.

The Hornsdale Power Reserve (HPR), 230km north of Adelaide, is owned and operated by French renewable energy producer Neoen, and connected to the company’s adjacent wind farm. It holds enough power for 8,000 homes for 24 hours, or more than 30,000 houses for an hour during a blackout

The lithium-ion battery is partly the result of a 2017 Twitter bet between Musk and Atlassian co-founder Mike Cannon-Brookes that Tesla would supply the battery within 100 days or it was free.

In November last year, Neoen announced plans to increase the battery complex’s size by 50% to 150MW, to be competed in the first half of 2020. It remains the largest battery in the world.

“Alongside additional power system reliability and continued cost savings to consumers, the expansion will provide an Australian-first large-scale demonstration of the potential for battery storage to provide inertia to the network which is critical to grid stability and the future integration of renewable energy,” Neoen said in announcing the expansion.

The South Australian Government helped fund the project with $15 million over five years, alongside $8 million from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency and debt financing from the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

The Aurecon report analysed the battery’s role in what’s known as Frequency Control and Ancillary Services (FCAS) – rapid response energy delivery when called upon by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO).

Quick deployment by the Hornsdale battery reserve stopped power prices spiking more than 50-fold in some instances, with prices stabilised at $270MW rather than climbing above $11,500MW in one incident.

“Upon the introduction of HPR into the FCAS markets, average yearly regulation FCAS costs from South Australian generators fell from a high of $470/MWh to less than $40/MWh, where they remain today, resulting in considerable savings in South Australian energy costs,” the Aurecon report says.

Aurecon concluded that Horndale delivered around $50 million in savings on the FCAS market alone, and captured 15% of the Contingency FCAS market volume (delivering $80m in savings) and 12% of the Regulation FCAS market volume (a $36M saving),across the mainland National Energy Market regions.

The Hornsdale battery “put considerable downward pressure on prices, especially in the Raise Regulation FCAS market,” Aurecon concluded. Without it being part of the energy mix, bid prices from other energy suppliers jumped by 25-39% in that market.

When South Australia was disconnected from the NEM during one incident last November, it saved $14 million over five hours after the Heywood interconnector went down. Nonetheless, 88% of the cost reductions occurred when the battery was connected to the other NEM regions

“HPR has responded to three South Australian separation events since entering service. On each occasion it has supported system security for the South Australian network by responding with its Fast Frequency Response capability to reduce the severity of the disturbance and support a return to normal frequency conditions,” Aurecon said in its report.

The impact its most noticeable on the Regulation FCAS side, with average prices sitting at around $450/MWh two years ahead of Hornsdale coming online, to sitting just above $20/MWh once it began feeding into the system.
 

Casey Jones

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Yeah. I figured the Musk-ists would have something to say, in the general buzz...Elon gonna make it happen.

Like he took Tesla private and made everyone rich. Like he got self-driving cars.

Like...every bit of his duplicitous bullshit...he's like a penny-arcade toy. Deposit a nickel, and he does his dance. Or, in his case, when he smells profit, or inhales pot...
 

Voodoo

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Late afternoon, early evening. After solar production has peaked, but heat hasn't dissipated and people come home and crank the AC.
So there's zero excess capacity already, what good is storage going to do?
 

gnome

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So there's zero excess capacity already, what good is storage going to do?
Plenty of capacity in the morning, just maybe less than 10% shortfall for a few hours during a historic heatwave. SanFernando Valley hit 120f, all time record and heat lasted for 4 days without cooling off.

These are the first blackouts due to capacity loss in 20 years - the ones 20 years ago were caused by Enron gaming gas prices. This time they were very brief (1 hour max) and only in a few neighborhoods.

Not necessary to back up San Fran or LA completely for 24 hours, just enough to cover a surge in demand for a couple of hours a few times a year.

Anyway, the battery companies are in the business of arbitrage, they will buy low and sell high, but the net effect for consumers should be a more stable grid and lower costs.
 

Voodoo

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Ok, This is now the second week in a row I've come to work (small downtown area) and there's been a Tesla parked on the wrong side of the road. Wondered why, well today I can see they ran a cord to the electrical box and are charging their car. From the public library or city's dime I can only imagine. :thumbs down:
 

Casey Jones

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Ok, This is now the second week in a row I've come to work (small downtown area) and there's been a Tesla parked on the wrong side of the road. Wondered why, well today I can see they ran a cord to the electrical box and are charging their car. From the public library or city's dime I can only imagine. :thumbs down:
Fire is your friend. Tesla fires, they last and last...you practically have to immerse those POSs to get a battery fire out.

I leave it to you to figure out how. Cellphones, kitchen matches, road flares taped to tires...
 

Cigarlover

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Tesla bros are back. Probably thinking battery day is going to be something other than sell the news. These people are so dumb/gamblers that I can't even tell if they are for real. The options volume numbers are just crazy. If for real the $1 is probably the $500-$510 call options that expire this Friday. I mean it opened at $380 and closed at $420. They did trade over 40,000 of those contracts today according to Yahoo.

View attachment 180476
Anyone heard from our friend Arnold since friday. :shit happens::dduck:
 

Voodoo

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Anyone heard from our friend Arnold since friday. :shit happens::dduck:
I was briefly looking but there are too many people and that was quite possibly not real anyway. So volatile. I really don't understand why ANYONE trades weekly options. I was watching those pretty close and he would have made money by Tues/Wed but then it just evaporates so quickly. And that's With the stock soaring from 380-445 for the week.
 

gnome

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Guessing tomorrow will see a bunch of people taking profit ahead of the news, with the faithful buying on weakness.
I might find myself in both categories.
 

gnome

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NIKOLA ceo resigns due to allegations of fraud. There goes one of Tesla's "competitors".
Stock rebounding above 200dma?!
The bigger story here is GM just bought 10% of this fraud and formed a partnership.
That shows you how incompetent GM is and how desperate they are to catch up in the EV game.

Screen Shot 2020-09-21 at 10.43.07 AM.png
 

Voodoo

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GM didn't just get the name Government Motors for nothing. That new CEO is a piece of work.
 

Voodoo

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Lol, more promises from mister genius. It's almost like I have a fricking degree in this area and understand the technology this guy promises is a load of crap. A million mile battery... hahahaha. more like a million bucks in Elon's pocket thanks to his million cult members.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...he-future-2020-09-22?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

Elon Musk said that some of the innovations showcased at the event were “close to working” and some three years away from fruition.
 

gnome

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Lol, more promises from mister genius. It's almost like I have a fricking degree in this area and understand the technology this guy promises is a load of crap. A million mile battery... hahahaha. more like a million bucks in Elon's pocket thanks to his million cult members.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...he-future-2020-09-22?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

Elon Musk said that some of the innovations showcased at the event were “close to working” and some three years away from fruition.
Buy the rumor sell the news. Buy the crash. Where does it stop? 50dma? 200dma? Lower?! Come to papa.

56% reduction in costs and 50% boost in range.
What they announced was the death of the ICE in 3-5 years.
How will Tesla's competitors get the batteries to scale to 20M vehicles per year in a decade?

Game over. Tesla won the decade and maybe the next one.
 

Voodoo

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Buy the rumor sell the news. Buy the crash. Where does it stop? 50dma? 200dma? Lower?! Come to papa.

56% reduction in costs and 50% boost in range.
What they announced was the death of the ICE in 3-5 years.
How will Tesla's competitors get the batteries to scale to 20M vehicles per year in a decade?

Game over. Tesla won the decade and maybe the next one.
How much does a gas tank cost? Because that's the comparable part in an ICE engine. I see this thing heading back to 50.

And now there entire system has crashed. So their system crashes and you can't drive your car... hmm seems to me like it's not even your car.
 
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gnome

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How much does a gas tank cost? Because that's the comparable part in an ICE engine. I see this thing heading back to 50.

And now there entire system has crashed. So their system crashes and you can't drive your car... hmm seems to me like it's not even your car.
The price of each component is irrelevant. Sticker price of the vehicle will be equal...running cost vastly lower, performance clearly superior (acceleration, handling, safety, autonomous driving). Game over. In 3-5 years.

This guy is very bullish, but he is one of the better analysts of TSLA cause he understands the company and does the numbers.
They just described their path to $1T in revenue in 10 years.
 

Voodoo

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The price of each component is irrelevant. Sticker price of the vehicle will be equal...running cost vastly lower, performance clearly superior (acceleration, handling, safety, autonomous driving). Game over. In 3-5 years.

This guy is very bullish, but he is one of the better analysts of TSLA cause he understands the company and does the numbers.
They just described their path to $1T in revenue in 10 years.
Sorry but he's just going to be really, really, wrong. Running costs are not "vastly lower". Unless electricity is free in your area (thanks Venezuela). We don't have the grid infrastructure to switch from gasoline to battery anyway. And the safety of these cars isn't anywhere close to most ICE cars on the road.

Dave Ramsey went on a rant the other week. Why is he expected to provide free battery charging during the day for his employees but not have a free gas station out front?

I also highly doubt that Tesla is going to be able to dominate the electric car market. They have plenty of competitors, after all they don't even own any of this battery tech. So any other company can buy the same batteries for their cars. There's no moat.
 

Voodoo

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Unless of course Elon actually figures out the actual power source that the Real Tesla used for his electric car. Batteries are never going to get the job done. I see another power source eventually taking over and making electric cars actually succeed. Either wireless energy transfer, zero point energy, cold fusion, or even the more plain fuel cell.

Imagine the performance and safety of an electrical car that doesn't have a 1500 lb extremely flammable battery. Now that could have potential.
 
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Voodoo

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The price of each component is irrelevant. Sticker price of the vehicle will be equal...running cost vastly lower, performance clearly superior (acceleration, handling, safety, autonomous driving). Game over. In 3-5 years.

This guy is very bullish, but he is one of the better analysts of TSLA cause he understands the company and does the numbers.
They just described their path to $1T in revenue in 10 years.
There's exactly zero technical information in all that garbage. 4% improvement from the cathode material, ok great, what improvements? If you want a high tech electrical grid/storage company take a look at someone like American Superconductor. None of the hype and more promise.

The video numbers are just pie in the sky straight line "forecasts". That just never works.
 

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newsom announced today......... no gas cars in commiefornia by 2035.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/politic...ban-sale-of-new-gas-only-cars-in-15591347.php

California to ban sale of new gas-powered cars in 2035 under Newsom order

Alexei Koseff and Dustin Gardiner Sep. 23, 2020 Updated: Sep. 23, 2020 2:21 p.m.



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1of3California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks at a press conference on Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2020, at Cal Expo in Sacramento where he announced an executive order requiring the sale of all new passenger vehicles to be zero-emission by 2035, a move the governor says would achieve a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. California would be Photo: Daniel Kim, Associated Press

2of3Cars are stacked in the parking lot at the Tesla car factory on Monday, May 11, 2020 in Fremont, California. California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2020 that the state will halt sales of new gasoline-powered passenger cars and trucks by 2035. On Wednesday he ordered state regulators to come up with requirements to meet that Photo: Gabrielle Lurie, The Chronicle

3of3Traffic flows through the Bay Bridge toll plaza on Thursday, June 8, 2017, in Oakland, Calif. California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2020 that the state will halt sales of new gasoline-powered passenger cars and trucks by 2035. On Wednesday he ordered state regulators to come up with requirements to meet that goal. California Photo: Noah Berger, Special to The Chronicle




SACRAMENTO — California will ban the sale of new gasoline-powered cars starting in 2035, the most aggressive action Gov. Gavin Newsom has yet taken to combat the causes of climate change.


Newsom signed an executive order Wednesday requiring that all new passenger vehicles sold in California by 2035 be zero-emission — a category that includes battery-powered electric cars and those that run on hydrogen fuel cells.
 

Voodoo

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newsom announced today......... no gas cars in commiefornia by 2035.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/politic...ban-sale-of-new-gas-only-cars-in-15591347.php

California to ban sale of new gas-powered cars in 2035 under Newsom order

Alexei Koseff and Dustin Gardiner Sep. 23, 2020 Updated: Sep. 23, 2020 2:21 p.m.



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3

1of3California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks at a press conference on Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2020, at Cal Expo in Sacramento where he announced an executive order requiring the sale of all new passenger vehicles to be zero-emission by 2035, a move the governor says would achieve a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. California would be Photo: Daniel Kim, Associated Press

2of3Cars are stacked in the parking lot at the Tesla car factory on Monday, May 11, 2020 in Fremont, California. California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2020 that the state will halt sales of new gasoline-powered passenger cars and trucks by 2035. On Wednesday he ordered state regulators to come up with requirements to meet that Photo: Gabrielle Lurie, The Chronicle

3of3Traffic flows through the Bay Bridge toll plaza on Thursday, June 8, 2017, in Oakland, Calif. California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2020 that the state will halt sales of new gasoline-powered passenger cars and trucks by 2035. On Wednesday he ordered state regulators to come up with requirements to meet that goal. California Photo: Noah Berger, Special to The Chronicle





SACRAMENTO — California will ban the sale of new gasoline-powered cars starting in 2035, the most aggressive action Gov. Gavin Newsom has yet taken to combat the causes of climate change.


Newsom signed an executive order Wednesday requiring that all new passenger vehicles sold in California by 2035 be zero-emission — a category that includes battery-powered electric cars and those that run on hydrogen fuel cells.
Well that's one way to boost EV sales. Completely illegal/unConstitutional. But Commiefornia was long lost to the Great Reset morons.
 

Uglytruth

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Kinda like forcing you to buy kenyancare......
 

MrLucky

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Down the rabbit hole but not deep enough
Guess it's time to buy used cars? Well, the headline states "new" not all gas fueled cars. So used cars should be OK. And since there is no snow/salt on the roads, the cars should last almost forever.
 

Casey Jones

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Maybe it won't matter.

The Bidet-HerAss Administration will no doubt require 20-percent ethanol in gasoline in a year or so. Already the Deep State is itching to do it - and it WILL destroy most cars, virtually all power equipment...anything that runs on gasoline.

Toyota has said for years it cannot and will not warranty cars run on E-15 or E-20. They are just not designed for it; and Toyota, with a reputation for reliability, says it does not know how to make an engine that holds up on ethanol.

Other makes' cars that are supposely certified for E-85, show major problems, early, when that rotgut corn squeezings is used.

So...all those used cars? They'll be broken used cars. Probably junked used cars, since major repairs, these days, are often more expensive than a 7-10 year old car is worth.

We'll all be on government choo-choos...running six hours late, as they do...
 

gnome

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I also highly doubt that Tesla is going to be able to dominate the electric car market. They have plenty of competitors, after all they don't even own any of this battery tech. So any other company can buy the same batteries for their cars. There's no moat.
They already have 80% market share in US and have the lead in China (Went from 6% to 21% almost overnight), 2 largest auto markets on earth. Only 17% BEV market in Europe, in 3rd place, Giga Berlin will change that. They already dominate globally. The question is can anybody catch them? Who?

The entire presentation of battery day is their own patented technology, everything from cell design to manufacturing processes.
56% decrease in $kwh at the pack level. 54% increase in range. 69% decrease in capex to build the factory.

I can respect skepticism on the timeline, the numbers and market cap.
I'm up 10x, drank Elon's kool aid and looking for another 10x from here.
 

gnome

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Nobody but collectors will want an ICE engine in 2035.
 

Zed

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They already have 80% market share in US and have the lead in China
... but it's from low base with very limited choice. Go back to the first automobiles and some car company that no one remembers now could make a similar claim. Then there was heaps of competition, then Ford changed the whole freaking game. Tesla has to face all that in the future... the truth is that for the average person electric cars are only just starting to be a viable choice... EVERY car company in the world is highly aware that the point in time that electric cars are the better choice is arriving SOON and they ALL intend to be there.

When it comes to tech hardware you are not often rewarded for being the bleeding edge. Some parts of Africa, late adopters of mobile phone tech have a way better phone system than we have in Australia and they paid less. We are stuck paying down our legacy equipment and dealing with the higher cost of switching up. Which is to say that in all probability new tech arrives from outside TLSA and the late adopters are making their initial investments at a better entry points in all respects. IMO battery tech is coming that will shift the ground significantly depending on who has access to the IP. I don't mean TSLA announcement, I mean a quantum leap

IMO this is going to be HARD, we will end up commoditizing the car in the same way PC's got commoditized. You will have a competing component manufactures with assemblers finding it harder to make a $ with shrinking margins. You will be buying "intel" motors, "NVIDIA" autopilot with an "AMD" motor and suspension control system. ANY smuck with the bucks will be able to buy quality parts and assemble a decent car. It's already gone that way somewhat.

This space will change alot IMO and staying ontop from the start is going to be the less probable expectation. A tough fight is about to erupt in this space, a fight to the death.

JMO etc...
 

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Nobody but collectors will want an ICE engine in 2035.
... they will fetch more than a 2020 Telsa! Ironically.
 

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Nobody but collectors will want an ICE engine in 2035.
Then why ban them? Because we both know that isn't true.
 

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It looks like I stumbled upon some technical detail on the 4% cathode improvement and cost reduction claims. From Kitco ironically.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-09-...nplays-Elon-Musk-s-cobalt-free-batteries.html

"From a commodities perspective, the most important announcement was the commitment to achieve a high-nickel cathode that will contain zero-cobalt and instead contain 2/3 nickel and 1/3 manganese, possibly with aluminium, which would make it an NMA formulation. While capacity issues seem to occur in all high-nickel formulations, this next generation cathode could lead to a 4% vehicle range increase while reducing costs and investment per GWH by 5% and 16% respectively, although no timeline was given for when this technology will be finalised," BMO Capital Research said in a note published Wednesday.

So, in the end this isn't even an IMPROVEMENT. This is simply skimping on costs by choosing an almost as good material that is cheaper. They could very well be making the capacity worse (ie fewer miles) because they need to cut costs.
 

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It looks like I stumbled upon some technical detail on the 4% cathode improvement and cost reduction claims. From Kitco ironically.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-09-...nplays-Elon-Musk-s-cobalt-free-batteries.html

"From a commodities perspective, the most important announcement was the commitment to achieve a high-nickel cathode that will contain zero-cobalt and instead contain 2/3 nickel and 1/3 manganese, possibly with aluminium, which would make it an NMA formulation. While capacity issues seem to occur in all high-nickel formulations, this next generation cathode could lead to a 4% vehicle range increase while reducing costs and investment per GWH by 5% and 16% respectively, although no timeline was given for when this technology will be finalised," BMO Capital Research said in a note published Wednesday.

So, in the end this isn't even an IMPROVEMENT. This is simply skimping on costs by choosing an almost as good material that is cheaper. They could very well be making the capacity worse (ie fewer miles) because they need to cut costs.
Tesla, the company and product...is the answer to a question that no one sane was asking.

And now it's going to be institutionalized - by bans, by laws requiring sales of Tesla-like cars, by, probably, tariffs keeping out foreign competition. And, eventually, more crony-favoritist laws that give Tesla singular tax breaks or contracts.

Because, of course, now the Fed can directly buy securities. STATE OWNERSHP OF THE MEANS TO PRODUCE.

Want to know why Renault, the French company, makes such lousy cars? Sixty years of State ownership - ended now (maybe temporarily) but for almost all of the postwar period, Renault was State competition. So the French government put in auto tariffs, keeping out German, American and Japanese competition...and Renault cars, always lousy, just got lousier.

They later purchased a controlling interest in Nissan. That is why Nissan went from a company with quality as high as Toyota, to the absolute-worst Japanese brand. Because Renault controls them and Renault looks to government, not to its purported customers.

Look for Tesla to go that way. Become America's own Trabant or Lada or Yugo...all State-controlled auto works.
 

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Tesla, the company and product...is the answer to a question that no one sane was asking.

And now it's going to be institutionalized - by bans, by laws requiring sales of Tesla-like cars, by, probably, tariffs keeping out foreign competition. And, eventually, more crony-favoritist laws that give Tesla singular tax breaks or contracts.

Because, of course, now the Fed can directly buy securities. STATE OWNERSHP OF THE MEANS TO PRODUCE.

Want to know why Renault, the French company, makes such lousy cars? Sixty years of State ownership - ended now (maybe temporarily) but for almost all of the postwar period, Renault was State competition. So the French government put in auto tariffs, keeping out German, American and Japanese competition...and Renault cars, always lousy, just got lousier.

They later purchased a controlling interest in Nissan. That is why Nissan went from a company with quality as high as Toyota, to the absolute-worst Japanese brand. Because Renault controls them and Renault looks to government, not to its purported customers.

Look for Tesla to go that way. Become America's own Trabant or Lada or Yugo...all State-controlled auto works.
If Commiefornia wants Tesla for their Volkswagon or Renault then that's fine with me. Those two can have each other. Just leave the rest of us out of your insanity.
 

Cigarlover

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Tesla, the company and product...is the answer to a question that no one sane was asking.

And now it's going to be institutionalized - by bans, by laws requiring sales of Tesla-like cars, by, probably, tariffs keeping out foreign competition. And, eventually, more crony-favoritist laws that give Tesla singular tax breaks or contracts.

Because, of course, now the Fed can directly buy securities. STATE OWNERSHP OF THE MEANS TO PRODUCE.

Want to know why Renault, the French company, makes such lousy cars? Sixty years of State ownership - ended now (maybe temporarily) but for almost all of the postwar period, Renault was State competition. So the French government put in auto tariffs, keeping out German, American and Japanese competition...and Renault cars, always lousy, just got lousier.

They later purchased a controlling interest in Nissan. That is why Nissan went from a company with quality as high as Toyota, to the absolute-worst Japanese brand. Because Renault controls them and Renault looks to government, not to its purported customers.

Look for Tesla to go that way. Become America's own Trabant or Lada or Yugo...all State-controlled auto works.
c'mon man Tesla is no Lada. Not by a long shot. Ladas are probably the biggest piece of shit ever produced at least of the POS I have driven in. Lots of them broken down in Cuba.
 

Voodoo

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c'mon man Tesla is no Lada. Not by a long shot. Ladas are probably the biggest piece of shit ever produced at least of the POS I have driven in. Lots of them broken down in Cuba.
Hmm I've never even heard of a Lada. Pretty sure those didnt cost 90k though. They made a good niche sports car but that's about it. It's like a poor man's Lambo. Nothing more nothing less.
 

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... but it's from low base with very limited choice. Go back to the first automobiles and some car company that no one remembers now could make a similar claim. Then there was heaps of competition, then Ford changed the whole freaking game.
Does the name Benz ring a bell? Still around.
Car manufacturing is a very hard game to break into because of the massive work & capex of scaling production.
Tesla is the first US carmaker to disrupt 100 years of dominance by the big 3.
What did Ford do? Scale.

Nobody innovates and scales like Tesla. At full capacity, Giga Shanghai will be the highest output car factory in the world - until it's surpassed by Giga Texas. They are building 3 of the highest output car factories in the world simultaneously.

They already co-own the largest battery factory in the world (giga Nevada) and their new prototype line in Fremont will have the 13th largest cell production in the world. Then they will scale to 10x the production of Giga Nevada, which is already the largest cell factory in the world.

If you want to understand Tesla you have to understand the speed at which they are innovating and scaling.

Two nice bounces off the 50dma, but lacking in conviction. Will the wedge break up or down?
Screen Shot 2020-09-25 at 6.32.12 PM.png
 

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Does the name Benz ring a bell? Still around.
The first automobile arrived close to 100 years BEFORE Benz. Benz applied later technology and had an advantage doing so giving berth to what is now known the first modern automobile. So where is Tesla? I'd argue that we are "pre-petroleum" in battery development terms.... so?

Mercedes Benz as we know it also didn't come about until about 1924 and was the result of merger, Daimler's efforts preceded and he had a patent on a type of ICE. Anyway, point being that there was a lot of development in that space prior.

I don't see that TSLA has any unique protection here.

Tesla is the first US carmaker to disrupt 100 years of dominance by the big 3.
What did Ford do? Scale.
Telsa relied on handouts from government, they'd be somewhere else entirely if there where no subsides. Chalk and Cheese.

Ford made money efficiently and lots of it by changing manufacturing for ever. Tesla, even with all the existing knowledge about how to build cars efficiently, developed the hard and expensive to build Model S.

Nobody innovates and scales like Tesla. At full capacity, Giga Shanghai will be the highest output car factory in the world - until it's surpassed by Giga Texas. They are building 3 of the highest output car factories in the world simultaneously.
Give me a call when they are running the highest output in the world and it is all hanging together. Nobody innovates like Telsa? Oh bullshit, that is arrogant shortsightedness... plenty is going on in that space. They are not the be all and end all by a long shot.

They already co-own the largest battery factory in the world (giga Nevada) and their new prototype line in Fremont will have the 13th largest cell production in the world. Then they will scale to 10x the production of Giga Nevada, which is already the largest cell factory in the world.
Sure but it is very likely to be superseded tech in the not to distant future.

We are also heading into the teeth of an economic pull back that will challenge all car makers, so, valuation??????

If you want to understand Tesla you have to understand the speed at which they are innovating and scaling.
It's not a matter of understanding TSLA... it's a matter of TOTALLY unrealistic market expectations.

Remember Mosaic, then Netscape, then king Yahoo... etc, etc You can pull up dozens of short lived tech kings, the space is just like that. TSLA has about as much protection from competition and these valuations remind me of the 90's

Anyway
 

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Anyway... the bet people are making here at these values is that TSLA will DOMINATE the space and there is no way that is going to happen. Others are making better cars already... so... yeah, they will be one of many if they survive. History is littered with dead car companies, many of them made great product, like Alvis... who you ask? Exactly, well made cars but things still went south.

Oh and... a Giga factory in China... yeah, I'm not feeling warm about the future of western companies in China of late, but maybe that is just me.