Tesla in ‘Code Red Situation’ as Sell-Off Exceeds 20%

[Ragnarok]

Quantum glass battery technology will finally make electric vehicles affordable and give them the same range or better than their ICE counterparts, it’s only a matter of when.

R.

 

[gnome]

Quantum glass battery technology will finally make electric vehicles affordable and give them the same range or better than their ICE counterparts, it’s only a matter of when.

R.

Lots of amazing battery tech in the pipeline, but even if you have a working prototype, it could be a decade away from commercialization.

In the meantime, Tesla's 4860 cells will allow them to compete with sticker prices for Corollas & F150's. The cells are already on the streets in vehicles and will absolutely wreck the ICE market within 3 years as they ramp production to terawatt scale.

 

[Buck]

Among these is Storm Watch, which maximizes energy storage during inclement weather and other conditions that may threaten the power grid.

uh huh

maximize, from what? baseline storage of a batter?
and if the battery is off of baseline, it's either low 'charge' or 'over' charge...i don't understand

it is what it is, how do you maximize the maximum?

 

[Voodoo]

Lots of amazing battery tech in the pipeline, but even if you have a working prototype, it could be a decade away from commercialization.

In the meantime, Tesla's 4860 cells will allow them to compete with sticker prices for Corollas & F150's. The cells are already on the streets in vehicles and will absolutely wreck the ICE market within 3 years as they ramp production to terawatt scale.

Not going to happen. But only time will tell.

 

[gnome]

Not going to happen. But only time will tell.

Here's Elon in 2014 saying Tesla will sell 500,000 vehicles in 2020. Looks like they are going to hit that number for 2020, despite the pandemic.
In 2014 that would have seemed impossible, but that's what they do.

The $25k Tesla is due in 2023. It's possible the timeline will be off by up to a year year and first ones to roll off the lines will be $30,000 premium version. But the car will arrive and it will crush the competition.
Cybertruck will start production in 2021 and will compete with F150.

 

[engineear]

Waiting for the fat battery in the 3 and the Y...also, their 1 piece casting for the front and rear of the same 2 vehicles.

Check out Sandy Munroe's explanation on youtoob...hes rather impressed.

 

[gnome]

Waiting for the fat battery in the 3 and the Y...also, their 1 piece casting for the front and rear of the same 2 vehicles.

Check out Sandy Munroe's explanation on youtoob...hes rather impressed.

Sandy's videos are great for understanding what Tesla is really up to.
The fat cells, cell-to-body, and 1 piece casting will all be in place when Giga Berlin opens, probably late next summer.

 

[gnome]

trend intact, break above resistance at $450, volume only moderate...resistance is now the all time high around $500/$2500 pre-split.

 

[Voodoo]

Breaking out while lowering prices on their cars. That's not strong enough to be a breakout, but I will cover on a significant new high. I'm sure they'll try to run the stops. Dont think they can but well see.

 

[gnome]

Breaking out while lowering prices on their cars. That's not strong enough to be a breakout, but I will cover on a significant new high. I'm sure they'll try to run the stops. Dont think they can but well see.

FYI, Earnings on oct 21st. They will be record earnings as they had record deliveries, but will it be enough to impress? Could be another case of buy rumor, sell news.

Their strategy is entirely based on lowering prices of electric vehicles to capture more market share, so get used to it. It is not a negative.

 

[Zed]

Lots of amazing battery tech in the pipeline, but even if you have a working prototype, it could be a decade away from commercialization.

There are projects that have been "proving out" over the last 5 years. I shouldn't be a decade away.

 

[Voodoo]

FYI, Earnings on oct 21st. They will be record earnings as they had record deliveries, but will it be enough to impress? Could be another case of buy rumor, sell news.

Their strategy is entirely based on lowering prices of electric vehicles to capture more market share, so get used to it. It is not a negative.

That's a great way to go broke. The only company it worked for that I can say is Amazon and that's a very low capital business. I think all they are doing is trying to desperately show revenue growth because the markets have been broken and don't "care" about earnings until this mysterious future date.

 

[Voodoo]

There are projects that have been "proving out" over the last 5 years. I shouldn't be a decade away.

And ANY other company can buy the same battery tech. That's my biggest problem, they have no noticeable moat IMO. I guess they have a good brand and a niche sports car.

 

[gnome]

That's a great way to go broke. The only company it worked for that I can say is Amazon and that's a very low capital business. I think all they are doing is trying to desperately show revenue growth because the markets have been broken and don't "care" about earnings until this mysterious future date.

Tesla lowering prices isn't primarily a reaction to markets. This was always the plan since they introduced the ultra-high end Roadster. Work down the food chain and deliver "best in class" vehicles in every market segment they enter.

Technology manufacturers do it all the time. Microprocessors? Solar panels? Markets entirely driven by declining costs. If you aren't lowering your prices and offering more for less you are going out of business. The auto industry is complacent with steady or rising prices for autos, therefore ripe for disruption.

Tesla's margins per vehicle are some of the best in the industry, and they are improving despite lowering their selling price.

 

[gnome]

There are projects that have been "proving out" over the last 5 years. I shouldn't be a decade away.

There's proof of concept. Then there's a working prototype. Commercialization is the hard part.
Please let me know who has a timeline for commercialization at scale, at what cost and what energy density?
Must be at least 100 GWh per year of production with a specific target date. I will buy that stock if I don't already own it.
Otherwise it's just another super battery in a lab.

 

[Zed]

Otherwise it's just another super battery in a lab.

BroadBit are one that are in the process of commercialization, it won't be a decade. + They actually have patents.

Tesla will become just another car maker... and pretty soon they will be just another car maker in a deep recession. They have been lifted to a ridiculous valuation by the fanbois. This sort of over pricing never ends well, never.

 

[gnome]

BroadBit are one that are in the process of commercialization, it won't be a decade. + They actually have patents.

I'll look into it.

 

[Voodoo]

If you really want to keep up with Lithium battery tech you need to keep up with Professor Goodenough at the university of texas. He invented the lithium battery.

 

[Voodoo]

Looks like a key earnings day now for Tesla this week. Either we are retesting the breakout or its a failed breakout and a bull trap.

 

[Zed]

This...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/42...ine-in-norway-volkswagens-e-golf-now-outsells

... Tesla will struggle against the titans of the industry once they bring product to market. This is with the nominally inferior eGolf, while on the other hand the Porsche is nominally superior and personally I'd buy the Rivian or Bollinger but not even look at that Cybertruck abortion. Sorry but that thing is horrible! Tesla should do relatively OK.... it is just hard to see these valuations holding. They are priced to DOMINATE and that just isn't going to happen.

 

[gnome]

This...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/42...ine-in-norway-volkswagens-e-golf-now-outsells

... Tesla will struggle against the titans of the industry once they bring product to market. This is with the nominally inferior eGolf, while on the other hand the Porsche is nominally superior and personally I'd buy the Rivian or Bollinger but not even look at that Cybertruck abortion. Sorry but that thing is horrible! Tesla should do relatively OK.... it is just hard to see these valuations holding. They are priced to DOMINATE and that just isn't going to happen.

I think VW has the best chance of any legacy maker to make the transition to EV's. They will grab some market share in the US as long as their vehicle credits last. One of the chinese makers could rival Tesla in mainland Asia, but they lack global presence.

Meanwhile, Tesla is growing 40% per year, even with pandemic shutdowns.
Sales way up. Revenue is increasing. EPS increasing. Cash on hand increasing. Operating margins improving.
Solar installations increasing. Grid storage increasing.

The stock price has massive growth priced in - they have to keep executing at a high level to justify it.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-reports-q3-earnings-2020-model-3-model-y-200910573.html
Tesla blows away estimates as deliveries ramp up, targeting 500K by year's end amid coronavirus
Emily McCormick
Emily McCormick·Reporter
Wed, October 21, 2020, 1:42 PM PDT
Tesla (TSLA) reported third-quarter sales and profit that topped expectations, as the company doubled down on its guidance to achieve a record 500,000 vehicle deliveries in 2020 in the face of a global economy still weighed by the COVID-19 outbreak.

Shares soared by over 4% in after-hours trading, adding to a stock run-up of more than 400% for the year to date through Wednesday’s close.

Here were the main results from Tesla’s earnings report, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

Q3 Revenue: $8.77 billion vs. $8.26 billion expected

Q3 Adjusted earnings per share: 76 cents vs. 55 cents expected

Ahead of its third-quarter earnings results, Tesla reported earlier this month that it had handed over a record 139,300 vehicles during the three months to September, for an increase of more than 40% over last year. Investors had been homing in to see whether the company still planned to hit a half-million deliveries for the full year.

Still, in order to meet that goal, the company would need to deliver more than 180,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter in an economy still stricken by the virus. On Wednesday, Tesla reiterated ithat it has the capacity installed to produce and deliver 500,000 vehicles this year.

“While achieving this goal has become more difficult, delivering half a million vehicles in 2020 remains our target,” the company said. “Achieving this target depends primarily on quarter over quarter increases in Model Y and Shanghai production, as well as further improvements in logistics and delivery efficiency at higher volume levels.”

Tesla CEO Elon Musk gets back into his Tesla after talking to media before visiting the construction site of the future US electric car giant Tesla, on September 03, 2020 in Gruenheide near Berlin. - Tesla builds a compound at the site in Gruenheide in Brandenburg for its first European "Gigafactory" near Berlin. (Photo by Odd ANDERSEN / AFP) (Photo by ODD ANDERSEN/AFP via Getty Images)
Tesla CEO Elon Musk gets back into his Tesla after talking to media before visiting the construction site of the future US electric car giant Tesla, on September 03, 2020 in Gruenheide near Berlin. - Tesla builds a compound at the site in Gruenheide in Brandenburg for its first European "Gigafactory" near Berlin. (Photo by Odd ANDERSEN / AFP) (Photo by ODD ANDERSEN/AFP via Getty Images)
More
The more affordable Model 3, and newer Model Y, comprised the bulk of the deliveries and all of the growth during the third quarter, while higher-priced Model S and X deliveries declined by more than 12% over last year.

Tesla, however, has been steadily slashing prices especially on its higher-end models in a move that may serve to stoke demand. Last week, it cut the starting price of the Model S twice to $69,420.

The car maker has also been ramping up production and deliveries out of its Shanghai Gigafactory, which has given the company a valuable hub in the world’s largest market for electric vehicles. And auto sales overall in China have rebounded strongly off the lows of its coronavirus lockdown, with sales climbing nearly 13% for a sixth straight monthly gain in September.

Tesla doesn’t break out vehicle deliveries by region, but analyst Dan Ives of WedBush pointed to Model 3 demand out of China as a “linchpin to the global Tesla demand picture,” according to a note this week. Tesla said Wednesday that its Model 3 production capacity had increased to 250,000 units per year, from the 150,000 annual run-rate it targeted initially after the factory first came online in December last year.

The California-based company also broke ground at its second overseas factory in Berlin earlier this year. There, construction “continues to progress rapidly,” the company said in its earnings report, and production is expected to start in 2021.

Tesla’s third-quarter results also come just weeks following the company’s inaugural “Battery Day” in late September. There, CEO Elon Musk laid out a path for the company to begin manufacturing its own “tabless” batteries to improve the cars’ range and power, and eventually help the company launch a $25,000 vehicle.

This post is breaking. Check back for updates.

 

[Zed]

Yeah but... growth off a LOW base with a PE over 1000. 7 is good value 10 to 20 is getting over valued depending on growth. 100 is insane, 1K + is LALA land.

 

[gnome]

Yeah but... growth off a LOW base with a PE over 1000. 7 is good value 10 to 20 is getting over valued depending on growth. 100 is insane, 1K + is LALA land.

The PE is now a little above 500, I think. Not bad for one quarter of increasing sales and improving operating margins.

 

[Voodoo]

It wasn't a bad quarter but I don't see them making the 500k cars this year and certainly not 1 mil next year. One thing I've noticed about Elon is he's the ultimate sales man and Always ignores the demand side of the equation. In all of their statements the demand is Infinite in their minds. Competition is coming on strong and the economy looks really weak IMO. Still very reliant on the tax credit schemes as well.

 

[Goldhedge]

OP post, not saying it was 'alarmist' or anything.... but 'Code Red'??
Dana Hull, Bloomberg might have got it wrong...?

 

[Buck]

details...

 

[Voodoo]

Looks like the market isn't as happy after digging, either that or just selling the news. Not many events left for the perpetual hope. Looking like a failed breakout now and below the trendline and 18 dma.

 

[gnome]

The chart looks very vulnerable.
I think the fundamentals have never been better.
4th quarter will be another record profit and 2021 will be a monster year.
They could cakewalk to 50% growth in vehicle sales on continued improving margins.

 

[Voodoo]

Ruh Roh. Definitely breaking down. Next stop $325

 

[Cigarlover]

Heard someone do a breakdown on tesla the other day. Basically trading at 1000+ PE.
Now if you take the 10 largest automakers, tesla is priced at the same as the top 8 combined. Definitely a great short opportunity if you can handle the swings.

 

[Cigarlover]

Here's the video. Start at the 6 minute mark. Thats where he breaks down tsla stuff.

 

[gnome]

Heard someone do a breakdown on tesla the other day. Basically trading at 1000+ PE.
Now if you take the 10 largest automakers, tesla is priced at the same as the top 8 combined. Definitely a great short opportunity if you can handle the swings.

Down today, putting the PE under 500.
But we all know Tesla is about future value, not current value.
Elon has said their goal is to spend money (R&D, acquisitions & production capacity) as fast as possible without wasting it.
They have growing profit margins despite their best efforts to spend every penny growing their lead.
Q4 will be significantly more profitable than Q3.
2021 they are aiming for 50-100% YOY growth in production.
Will they sell all those vehicles? That's the $400 billion question.

 

[gnome]

Tesla just added to S&P 500. Anybody got a spare $40B in shares lying around?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-huge-may-two-steps-000924103.html
Tesla Is So Huge It May Take Two Steps to Put It in the S&P 500
Sarah Ponczek, Lu Wang and Elena Popina
Mon, November 16, 2020, 4:09 PM PST·5 min read

(Bloomberg) -- Normally the process of adding a company to the S&P 500 is pretty straightforward. One company enters, another leaves. But as with so much else surrounding Elon Musk’s cutting-edge carmaker, with Tesla Inc. it’s complicated.

At almost $390 billion in value, Tesla would be the biggest company ever added to the benchmark. Pushing it all in at once would force index-tracking funds into serious contortions -- they’d need to sell upwards of $40 billion of shares in other constituents to make room, by some estimates. As a result, the index’s overseer, S&P Dow Jones Indices, is considering doing it in stages.

After months of speculation that contributed to a near-quintupling in the shares, S&P Dow Jones said Monday the 17-year-old company would be added to the gauge in December. The committee is seeking feedback from the investors on whether to add it in two separate pieces, an unprecedented step. The company Tesla replaces will be named later.

“It wasn’t easy to make such an important decision, and this decision has a big impact,” said Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones. (Silverblatt isn’t a member of the S&P 500 committee and isn’t associated directly with the decision to put in Tesla). “An open-ended dialog with investors will only help. You can’t put a company in at such a high level just like you would any other firm. The times have changed, the magnitude of the stocks that are being added has changed, too.”

News Tesla will enter the index, which drove its shares up more than 13% after hours partly in anticipation of demand from index trackers, ends one drama and starts a second. Besides boosting the uncomfortably large influence of technology companies in the biggest equity gauge, it starts what could be a frantic process among Wall Street’s sprawling passive investment machine to accommodate its addition.

About $11 trillion of investment assets are either tied or benchmarked to the S&P 500.

Given its heft, Tesla would likely be among the top 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500, falling somewhere between Johnson & Johnson and Procter & Gamble Co., with a weighting of more than 1%. That would equal the combined value of the 60 smallest stocks in the benchmark. S&P Dow Jones uses float-adjusted market-cap rather than the straight figure to apportion influence.

Usually when the S&P 500 is reshuffled, it occurs when a company is acquired or as part of a routine quarterly rebalancing. Often, changes happen due to shifts in a company’s size: one might be sent to the S&P’s small-cap or mid-cap indexes while another moves up to the large-cap gauge.

In October, industrial tech firm Vontier Corp. replaced Noble Energy Inc., which was acquired by Chevron Corp. Noble Energy last traded with a market value of $4.1 billion, not far off from Vontier’s $4.9 billion. E*Trade Financial, which was purchased by Morgan Stanley, was replaced by Pool Corp., a distributor of swimming pool supplies of roughly the same size.

In Tesla’s case, as far as index-trackers are concerned, there’s no single company large enough that its removal would offset its addition. Index-fund managers have speculated in the past that when the carmaker is added, they’ll need to sell small bits of other members of the gauge to create space.

“In effect, this is trading a pawn on the chessboard for a queen,” Lawrence Creatura, a portfolio manager at PRSPCTV Capital LLC, said by phone. “The size of Tesla as it’s being included in the index is much larger relative to the company that is likely to come out. That’s going to create a lot of shuffling among passive funds that track the S&P 500 explicitly.”

Given the sheer amount of investment dollars that track the benchmark, index mutual funds and exchange-traded funds were already hashing out strategies back in July for this possibility. Back then, when Tesla’s market-cap stood near $280 billion, Vanguard Group Inc. estimated managers of passive funds will have to sell about $35 billion to $40 billion of shares in the rest of the index’s companies to make a hole big enough to fit purchases of Tesla shares. Now, after over another $100 billion in value was added to Tesla, that amount is presumably larger.

Tesla’s path to the S&P 500 has been unconventional. Investors believed in Musk’s firm’s growth story enough to bid the share price ever higher despite a record dotted with more quarterly losses than profits. One rule for index inclusion requires that the sum of total earnings over the past four quarters must be positive -- a feat Tesla did not reach until this summer.

As S&P Dow Jones’ Silverblatt said, “the times have changed.” Companies go public when they’re older now, once they have already delivered solid growth. This may be the first time passive index overlords and fund managers have to deal with such an untraditional addition. But it may not be the last.

 

[EO 11110]

elon pissed off the (((vipers))) - just like chipotle did (remember the never-ending contamination lies?)

so they unleash their pathetic liars to attack

both companies TROUNCED the vipers' attempts to take them down

take note, and look for opportunities like this in the future

 

[Goldhedge]

@ $400/share today...

 

[gnome]

@ $400/share today...

$460 in aftermarket trading on high volume.
Could evaporate by morning, but should challenge the $500ish top by December when the add is completed.
I guess. Maybe.
I'm still long.

 

[gnome]

elon pissed off the (((vipers))) - just like chipotle did (remember the never-ending contamination lies?)

so they unleash their pathetic liars to attack

both companies TROUNCED the vipers' attempts to take them down

take note, and look for opportunities like this in the future

Musk sells short shorts on Tesla website for $69.42 and model S long range is $69,420
He trolls the shorts mercilessly and clearly has enough leeway in his margins to make jokes with pricing.

 

[Zed]

The thing looks like it is in a consolidation pattern. If it breaks northward it will target $700. I can't see any fundamental reason why it should but I do remember the 90's and anyshit.com trading like it was going to take over the world. Talked to an owner the other day, he believed that they where going to be the biggest company in the world with no real competent opposition. The coolaid is strong! I've been following Elon's twitter, I'm not sure he is sane, some of the crap! Oh jeeze... anyway Telsa's ambitions to build hot robot cat girls aside I think he spends his spare cash squeezing TSLA shorts for fun. Can't last forever but there looks to be a trade coming up!

 

[EO 11110]

here's why the code red operation was launched

 

[Voodoo]

The thing looks like it is in a consolidation pattern. If it breaks northward it will target $700. I can't see any fundamental reason why it should but I do remember the 90's and anyshit.com trading like it was going to take over the world. Talked to an owner the other day, he believed that they where going to be the biggest company in the world with no real competent opposition. The coolaid is strong! I've been following Elon's twitter, I'm not sure he is sane, some of the crap! Oh jeeze... anyway Telsa's ambitions to build hot robot cat girls aside I think he spends his spare cash squeezing TSLA shorts for fun. Can't last forever but there looks to be a trade coming up!

I think it's pretty clear there are all kinds of suspicious slush fund activities going on in this stock. The S&P 500 just took on a huge anchor to their whole index. Why would they do such a thing unless pressured? It's safe to say that none of this is about how many crappy cars they sell.