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Tesla in ‘Code Red Situation’ as Sell-Off Exceeds 20%

Uglytruth

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Way too much debt there for me to get involved. I try for longer term outlooks, I'll let the Reddit day traders have their fun and cheer em on.
That's the beauty of it. Throw a small amount at it & if you loose no big deal. If they can punish the shorts and they seem hell bent on it ride it. Sell off our investment and help them with the pain. It's not about fundamentals........ it's exposing the cheats.

I said something similar on here years ago when they were settling silver contracts with extra frn's because they had no physical. Pool money. Buy a contract. Hold and demand delivery. Take the "profits" and do it again and again and again. If they delivered that's OK also.

There has to be ways to punish them. All they do is steal, manipulate, skim fees & get bonuses & slap each other on the back.
At least Buffet has to bribe the commies to let his train run oil in his little dictatorship monopoly. But that's like fining a bank 10 million for stealing 5 billion..........
 

Voodoo

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That's the beauty of it. Throw a small amount at it & if you loose no big deal. If they can punish the shorts and they seem hell bent on it ride it. Sell off our investment and help them with the pain. It's not about fundamentals........ it's exposing the cheats.

I said something similar on here years ago when they were settling silver contracts with extra frn's because they had no physical. Pool money. Buy a contract. Hold and demand delivery. Take the "profits" and do it again and again and again. If they delivered that's OK also.

There has to be ways to punish them. All they do is steal, manipulate, skim fees & get bonuses & slap each other on the back.
At least Buffet has to bribe the commies to let his train run oil in his little dictatorship monopoly. But that's like fining a bank 10 million for stealing 5 billion..........

I don't know but I think concentrating on the one stock probably works best but attacking a fund's other positions has long been a strategy.

You are talking to someone who tried to take physical stock certificates in GME last year. That was too expensive now but I went and sold the shares in Etrade and bought GME direct registration shares.
 

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Betting against Elon Musk is like betting against Tom Brady.

It ain't going to turn out well...
 

gnome

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Betting against Elon Musk is like betting against Tom Brady.

It ain't going to turn out well...

Tesla seems to be finding support at 50dma now, in the last couple of years that's been a great entry point.
I'm nibbling. More concerned about the overall markets dragging Tesla down that Tesla itself.
 

Curtman

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Okay my reply was going to be too long for your thread I'm going to put it up in my market's thread
 
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Voodoo

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We have a serious breakdown now here. Looks like I missed the short this time. Oh well. Shorted some worse Fuel Cell Energy. Not a lot though.
 

Casey Jones

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We have a serious breakdown now here. Looks like I missed the short this time. Oh well. Shorted some worse Fuel Cell Energy. Not a lot though.

People have gotten devastated, shorting Tesla.

The reason being, its market cap, and its trending, have NOTHING to do with fundamentals. It's being traded completely independent of its actual value, measured in any metric.

Tesla is a cult. It's not worth a tenth of what it's trading at; but it BEING a cult, and our loony-toons government being what IT is, it's not likely to go down and very likely to be propped up, with sales incentives, bridge loans, or even open FRB buying of equity.
 

gnome

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We have a serious breakdown now here. Looks like I missed the short this time. Oh well. Shorted some worse Fuel Cell Energy. Not a lot though.

Fuel cells aren't gonna win the technology race, batteries are improving fast enough it's not worth building out the infrastructure.
NKLA is a pure zombie corp.

I sold most of my position in TSLA at $695, thought for a while there it might never come back. Not gonna catch a knife.
 

Voodoo

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Fuel cells aren't gonna win the technology race, batteries are improving fast enough it's not worth building out the infrastructure.
NKLA is a pure zombie corp.

I sold most of my position in TSLA at $695, thought for a while there it might never come back. Not gonna catch a knife.

At least a fuel cell actually produces energy. A battery does nothing but store power to use later.
 

Voodoo

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This retest of the ~50 dMA looks like an Ideal short entry. Do I have the balls? $762-$800. Think I'm gonna get me some of that.

1614224227166.png
 

gnome

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At least a fuel cell actually produces energy. A battery does nothing but store power to use later.

A fuel cell does not produce energy. It is just another store of energy.
Most hydrogen today is produced by methane hydrolysis of natgas, which involves heating the gas over 700 degrees Celsius. It's less efficient than natgas vehicles, but reduces street level emissions that cause asthma & heart disease. I've ridden hydrogen busses in Tokyo. Definitely easy on the lungs compared to diesel.

I don't think it can compete economically with batteries that keep dropping in cost and getting better range/lifecycle/power density as the reach economy of scale.
 

Casey Jones

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A fuel cell does not produce energy. It is just another store of energy.

I think what's being compared, is a FUEL, to an actual source of energy.

Gasoline is a fuel. Hydrogen in a fuel-cell, is fuel.

Electricity is power, made at another point by combustion or gravity (a small, unreliable amount through wind kinetic energy). A battery soaks up that power and then stores it, a percentage of it. With considerable loss.
 

gnome

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I think what's being compared, is a FUEL, to an actual source of energy.

Gasoline is a fuel. Hydrogen in a fuel-cell, is fuel.

Electricity is power, made at another point by combustion or gravity (a small, unreliable amount through wind kinetic energy). A battery soaks up that power and then stores it, a percentage of it. With considerable loss.

It requires thermal energy of 700f to convert natgas to hydrogen (at a considerable loss). Then it takes considerable energy to convert hydrogen to mechanical energy (or electrical energy for a hybrid) to power a vehicle. Hydrogen and batteries are both storage of energy, not production.

The first question is which is more efficient/cost effective. The second question is which tech will scale up faster.

There's a reason basically every auto major has announced they are going all electric, and it isn't because hydrogen is going to win the technology race. Hydrogen could carve out a niche for some trucking uses, but no question BEV will win with passenger vehicles and probably with trucking, too.
 

Voodoo

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A fuel cell does not produce energy. It is just another store of energy.
Most hydrogen today is produced by methane hydrolysis of natgas, which involves heating the gas over 700 degrees Celsius. It's less efficient than natgas vehicles, but reduces street level emissions that cause asthma & heart disease. I've ridden hydrogen busses in Tokyo. Definitely easy on the lungs compared to diesel.

I don't think it can compete economically with batteries that keep dropping in cost and getting better range/lifecycle/power density as the reach economy of scale.

Ok, I guess that it somewhat true. Hydrogen is the fuel and so you are storing chemical energy but the fuel cell is directly converting that to electrical energy. A battery is just storing electrical energy that is produced somewhere else. Missed my damn short entry though, really weak sign.
 

Casey Jones

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There's a reason basically every auto major has announced they are going all electric, and it isn't because hydrogen is going to win the technology race. Hydrogen could carve out a niche for some trucking uses, but no question BEV will win with passenger vehicles and probably with trucking, too.

There are two reasons why.

First, "Woke" management; and second, arm-twisting by the Deep State. Corporate leadership has turned on their customers. Because they don't believe they have to please their customers - only Big Brother.

Government wants those stupid things because it will be easier with them, to control, limit and discourage their use. Everything from a central turn-off via the Mothership, over the airwaves, the way Tesla has it, to brownouts and electricity rationing...that could easily be used to exclude private personal vehicles.
 

gnome

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Ok, I guess that it somewhat true. Hydrogen is the fuel and so you are storing chemical energy but the fuel cell is directly converting that to electrical energy. A battery is just storing electrical energy that is produced somewhere else. Missed my damn short entry though, really weak sign.

Too bad you missed it. Yeah, looks really weak. I'd like to see a retest of the low $600's before going long.
 

Voodoo

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Really important support here at the 18 week MA. $669.53. It's only been below that level, for 4 weeks last March during the pandemic, for the whole breakout since Sep 2019.
 
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Voodoo

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Damn, I was so close to timing this short really well. At least I've got a bunch of QQQ puts.
 

Voodoo

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Quick, Tesla is on Fire (and not in a good way) someone call the fire department. Oh wait, water won't put out a Tesla fire.

This is what happens when you have a lot of people in such a concentrated position. (also note my simple posting this is probably a sign of a low today).
 

Uglytruth

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This is what happens when you have a lot of people in such a concentrated position.

Could the same not be said about all the nose bleed stock valuations? No safe havens in CD's or MM accounts so money is forced to look for returns anywhere they can find it. To much fiat chasing weak fundamentals leads to this.
 

Voodoo

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Could the same not be said about all the nose bleed stock valuations? No safe havens in CD's or MM accounts so money is forced to look for returns anywhere they can find it. To much fiat chasing weak fundamentals leads to this.

Yes, that's true to a degree but Tesla was unique in that there were some large funds that became very crowded in this one stock. When you have some ETF's and even a damn mutual fund that is 30% plus in one stock, you've got a problem. Tesla had provided unique Beta for a variety of reasons and I think that helped drive the price up, because those funds were outperforming the S&P 500 simply because it was outside of the index.
 

gnome

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Yes, that's true to a degree but Tesla was unique in that there were some large funds that became very crowded in this one stock. When you have some ETF's and even a damn mutual fund that is 30% plus in one stock, you've got a problem. Tesla had provided unique Beta for a variety of reasons and I think that helped drive the price up, because those funds were outperforming the S&P 500 simply because it was outside of the index.

Specifically Ron Baron sold 1.8 million shares, but still holding 7 million, I think.
He didn't want to sell, but cited too much concentration. Considering his average share price is probably under $50, the remaining shares could be pure profit.
 

Uglytruth

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Not much legacy cost in these.


 

Casey Jones

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Not much legacy cost in these.


Legacy cost of a different sort.

What happens when all those robots are obsoleted, or worn out - and the manufacturer isn't around?

We see it, all the time. Remember those huge mainframe IBM computers eating punch-cards? What happened to those? (Scrapped, obviously) Where is the money spent on those things...like, gone?

The Post Office. Those generic mini-panel-vans they deliver main in. Made under contract by a project between Grumman-Olson (which used to make aluminum step-vans, with various truck makers' chassis) and Chevrolet (under that aluminum, the frame and running gear is a modified S-10). The contract called for the truck to be designed to last 25 years - it's been 33, now.

And Chevrolet has been through bankruptcy; and there is nothing in those trucks that's still made today. They aren't even really very GOOD compared to modern trucks - twelve miles a gallon, economy. Those were pretty pathetic trucks, but GM paid the requisite graft to get the contract.

Similar, here. Those robot-makers aren't necessarily going to be around. Parts may not be available; the whole line of them may have to be replaced in ten years. That is, if Tesla is around in ten years.

That's the New Age Business Model: Spend a dollar to save five pennies.
 

Joe King

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The Post Office. Those generic mini-panel-vans they deliver main in. Made under contract by a project between Grumman-Olson
You talking about these things, right? Apparently they like to catch on fire. I also read that when they get replaced, they're gonna crush 'em.

2:28

Actual video starts at 2:20

I kinda liked the little jeeps they used to use.
 

Casey Jones

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You talking about these things, right? Apparently they like to catch on fire. I also read that when they get replaced, they're gonna crush 'em.

2:28

Actual video starts at 2:20

I kinda liked the little jeeps they used to use.

The jeeps were garbage. I know this, as I had three, at various times - they were perfect Urban Transport Vehicles. No one would steal them. No one would shed a tear if it got scratched, folded, spindled, mutilated or wrecked.

You used to be able to pick up one for about $500. How long it lasted depended on how much work you wanted to do to it. Nickel-and-diming was the problem...they were well-worn when surped off; and also usually, rusty.

I can't imagine why the LLVs are burning - the inside of those things is all just painted metal. I suspect it has to do with the age of the wiring harness, and/or the crud buildup in the engine bay. Those were powered by the Pontiac Iron Duke four - an old-school engine in all the worst ways. One thing it did well was, seep and leak fluids like few modern cars do.

But I'll give GM some credit here: It's really impossible to design a vehicle that will last over 30 years, without periodic renovation. Especially wiring harnesses - as anyone who's owned a classic car knows. Age makes the plastic insulation crack; and movement, being driven about, makes things shift...and even with only twelve volts, you can get some interesting sparks and hot wires.
 

Casey Jones

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I also read that when they get replaced, they're gonna crush 'em.

Bodies are aluminum, and as such, are worth something as scrap.

The running gear is fully depreciated. One problem the Postal Service has, now, is finding mechanics who know how to work on such rigs - old GM engines, with a carb and a three-speed automatic transmission.

When they sold those DJ-5 trucks to the public, enough cretins rolled them, and their families filed enough lawsuits, that the last batch of Postal Jeeps got scrapped, instead of sold. And that's what the Postal Service wants to do with these old boxes, now.
 

Buck

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come on casey

poor maintenance...human errors

they poured good money into this design, as they did with the earlier jeep...they chose properly, they maintained some improperly, but not many

how many mile were put onto these 'mules'? i mean, they're what UPS and Fedex are based off of...this is the 'machine' most will bastardize, i don't, it's a Great System, 'we built it', it's got flaws, the human flaw, but it's a great enough foundation to steal from...more than bastardize
 

Buck

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UPS with their 'billion dollar design' their 'billion dollar gps program'
Amazon with their 'million dollar use someone else's design, someone else's gps program'
Fedex with their 'billion dollar design, their 'billion dollar gps program'
Pony Express, Train Service Air Mail
USPS with their original designs, their original purpose, without the banking system (wonder why?), their transportation system, the ability to touch almost every property in the usofa, still in use today, with cross-use from foreign countries...with bad deals that were dealt with, but probably about to be undone...ad nauseum **(e) you little bit...sorry i digress congress ain't far behind in that rant...ptewi
 

Casey Jones

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come on casey

poor maintenance...human errors

they poured good money into this design, as they did with the earlier jeep...they chose properly, they maintained some improperly, but not many

how many mile were put onto these 'mules'? i mean, they're what UPS and Fedex are based off of...this is the 'machine' most will bastardize, i don't, it's a Great System, 'we built it', it's got flaws, the human flaw, but it's a great enough foundation to steal from...more than bastardize

I don't know. I was running a Postal Jeep when that LLV contract came out...the Postal Service had a big garage in Cleveland, and in the pre-9-11 days, you could just walk in. I was getting service data out of their books...did you know, NOTHING used in the Postal "jeeps" corresponded to any Jeep sold in dealerships? The engine was the same; but detuned. Transmissions were different - Borg-Warner "Mickey-Mouse" units, until 1978 when the DJ line was switched over to Chrysler TorqueFlite transmissions.

Made in a factory in La Grange, Indiana (NOT Illinois). Military M38A1s were made on the same line, until the Army changed over to M-151s. The Postal truck didn't get the stretched frame in 1972 that CJs (made in Toledo) got. The frame was similar to the M38A1 but with fewer cross-members and braces. And that big six, put in starting 1971 (Kaiser bought Chevy II engines for the first Postal Jeeps; but Chevrolet discontinued the engine, and AMC wanted to use their own engines). That six sat over the front axle. CJs that used the AMC engine, had the frame stretched three inches to accommodate the bigger engines, from 1972. The Postals just had the engine too far over the axle...that was why that bugged-out front grille on mail trucks.

Made them VERY unstable, and unbelievably thirsty for gas. But, hey, they did always start...that six was basically a good engine, it just wasn't any good for that use.

Okay...thread-jack over. But I've absorbed quite a bit of trivia on postal trucks, from my experience with them.
 

Voodoo

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gnome

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oh, nothing to see here...just a 70% annual growth rate while the rest of the industry dies.
And two new hyper-efficient factories coming online in the next few months.

Screen Shot 2021-10-18 at 10.16.50 AM.png
 

Goldbrix

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oh, nothing to see here...just a 70% annual growth rate while the rest of the industry dies.
And two new hyper-efficient factories coming online in the next few months.

View attachment 228930
All Thanks to .Gov Loans and Hand outs ?
 

Cigarlover

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Didn't the Gov just order 600k teslas?
 

Voodoo

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It doesn't make any sense unless Tesla is going to be making a heck of a lot more things than just cars after the DS falls apart. Either way I'm not playing this one right now.
 

Voodoo

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Also looks like this could be a great time to short. Retesting the all-time highs and the momentum is clearly in decline. :ponder:

1634590135028.png
 

Casey Jones

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We don't have a real market, and Musky Elon is Woke.

He and his Potemkin company will be protected by the Fed's Plunge Protection Team.

Save your money. Buy real stuff, like guns, food and aspirin and ivermectin.
 

ttazzman

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Also looks like this could be a great time to short. Retesting the all-time highs and the momentum is clearly in decline. :ponder:

View attachment 228942

really need to understand Tesla before messing with it one way or the other........in cars i know they have orders in place years in advance ........and i know their battery tech is the thing to have for home solar tech.....i dont have a dog in this fight either way but it does seem to be real life ussage type tech
 

AurumAg

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I keep thinking that a good business model would be a fleet of mobile Diesel generators for charging EVs on demand in emergencies, peak prosperity/vacation zones and dead zones between charge stations whose distance exceeds the EV charge range.
 

gnome

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All Thanks to .Gov Loans and Hand outs ?
Tesla stopped receiving federal tax credits in 2018. Except for GM, the other auto manufacturers are still receiving it.
Yes, they get some state tax benefits. And regulatory tax credits which they sell to Fiat/Chrysler, who find it cheaper to subsidize Tesla than build their own EV's.

Top-10-EV-Automakers-by-Sales-June-2019.png