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Tesla in ‘Code Red Situation’ as Sell-Off Exceeds 20%

viking

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I hope he had a permit for that.
 

gnome

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Vehicle deliveries up 87% YOY.
Another quarter of record profit.

Screen Shot 2022-01-03 at 9.51.40 AM.png
 

Voodoo

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Record deliveries does NOT equal record profits. Although they should have a good quarter. I think they are gonna run out of demand or at least find it is not unlimited.
 

Casey Jones

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I don't think Tesla will outlive the popping of the Everything Bubble - and that's one more reason Musky Elon is selling his stock in such huge amounts.

As a primary automobile, an electric car simply will not work for most people. Hence, a Tesla is discretionary - and is a New Age fashion accessory, a gaudy way to announce ***I CARE*** to your rich Leftist neighbors.

We aren't going to be there. Between all the sickness, all the death, and all the debt...we're gonna be looking like End Times in ten years, seems like.
 

gnome

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Record deliveries does NOT equal record profits. Although they should have a good quarter. I think they are gonna run out of demand or at least find it is not unlimited.
It wlll be record profit and not even close. Their margins keep improving. More cars at better margins = more profit.

They keep raising prices (to try to quell demand) but are still sold out 6 months into the future.
Until otherwise noted, they are supply constrained, not demand constrained.
When demand starts to dip, they'll lower prices to stimulate demand.

Three more models coming - Semi, cybertruck and economy car.
Yes, eventually the market will be saturated and the'll have to turn to other sections of the business (energy, software, robots, insurance) to increase revenue.
 

Voodoo

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It wlll be record profit and not even close. Their margins keep improving. More cars at better margins = more profit.

They keep raising prices (to try to quell demand) but are still sold out 6 months into the future.
Until otherwise noted, they are supply constrained, not demand constrained.
When demand starts to dip, they'll lower prices to stimulate demand.

Three more models coming - Semi, cybertruck and economy car.
Yes, eventually the market will be saturated and the'll have to turn to other sections of the business (energy, software, robots, insurance) to increase revenue.

They should be thanking their lucky stars that the ICE car makers can suddenly not build cars. Geez, or is that not a simple coincidence. 300,000 (or ~1 million per year) is starting to get to real numbers but the growth rate must slow down now. Now they have to market to the masses and have run out of loonies to sell toys.
 

gnome

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I don't think Tesla will outlive the popping of the Everything Bubble - and that's one more reason Musky Elon is selling his stock in such huge amounts.
Musky Elon was exercising options with a due date and selling shares to cover the taxes on exercising the options. He basically had no choice but to exercise the options or let them expire.
He ended his massive sale with 564,000 more shares (fewer options) than he start with. ;-)
 
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gnome

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They should be thanking their lucky stars that the ICE car makers can suddenly not build cars. Geez, or is that not a simple coincidence. 300,000 (or ~1 million per year) is starting to get to real numbers but the growth rate must slow down now. Now they have to market to the masses and have run out of loonies to sell toys.
I'd be satisfied with the 50% growth rate that Tesla has been projecting.
 

Voodoo

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I'd be satisfied with the 50% growth rate that Tesla has been projecting.

He projects whatever he wants and then sells 10% of the company. Oh, that he gave himself in just stupid option compensation. Great for him, probably not great for stock buyers.
 

ttazzman

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Record deliveries does NOT equal record profits. Although they should have a good quarter. I think they are gonna run out of demand or at least find it is not unlimited.

just a fyi on demand.........my kids each have one ordered so 2 on order total ........from last spring (may) .......at a set price before increases ......order includes a order fee..........they suspect maybe another year till the order can be fullfilled .......there "place in line" is now worth about 4 times what their "order fee" was

but yes .......demand for expensive cars should drop as supply is fullfilled........the real question is the practical lifespan of a tesla.........are they 100k mile cars........or million mile cars .......i suspect that will have a lot to do with it.......also additional competition would certainly affect margins.........the main thing to understand also is currently they have not only the top hardware product .......they also have the top software product (self driving tech) on the market ......if you talk to a true Tesla minion and break them down they will keep coming back to Tesla just for the driving software ....my son has ~40k on his tesla now and while flying from city to city this holidays got hung up on canceled flights so he rented a normal car for a Hr Drive segment ........his quote to me was he had forgotten how tiring actual driving was and he didnt want to do it again
 

Voodoo

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just a fyi on demand.........my kids each have one ordered so 2 on order total ........from last spring (may) .......at a set price before increases ......order includes a order fee..........they suspect maybe another year till the order can be fullfilled .......there "place in line" is now worth about 4 times what their "order fee" was

but yes .......demand for expensive cars should drop as supply is fullfilled........the real question is the practical lifespan of a tesla.........are they 100k mile cars........or million mile cars .......i suspect that will have a lot to do with it.......also additional competition would certainly affect margins.........the main thing to understand also is currently they have not only the top hardware product .......they also have the top software product (self driving tech) on the market ......if you talk to a true Tesla minion and break them down they will keep coming back to Tesla just for the driving software ....my son has ~40k on his tesla now and while flying from city to city this holidays got hung up on canceled flights so he rented a normal car for a Hr Drive segment ........his quote to me was he had forgotten how tiring actual driving was and he didnt want to do it again

He does know that auto-driving is NOT a capability yet.... Talk about taking his life into luck's hand. I like to do things the hard way and will probably take a LONG time before I let just a stupid computer drive my car. I guess a good gauge of demand waning would be the price of those waiting lists. Where do they get this "value" for their place in line?

The mileage is going to depend almost entirely on the battery life. I doubt many batteries see 100k miles. It would all depend on the right conditions with no temp extremes, fewer long charging sessions, low consistent power consumption, etc. The warrant is what 6 years?... That would be about 72k miles for the average US person.
 
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ttazzman

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He does know that auto-driving is NOT a capability yet.... Talk about taking his life into luck's hand. I like to do things the hard way and will probably take a LONG time before I let just a stupid computer drive my car. I guess a good gauge of demand waning would be the price of those waiting lists. Where do they get this "value" for their place in line?

I guess its a definition of "auto-driveing" ........i dont know the exact term for the software in his car.......but its hands free 95% of the time includeing lane changes etc ......maybe a super duper cruise control? LOL........and i remember him saying just the software part cost a extra 10k ish...........and i guarantee he is addicted to it...........the whole point to my post was there are reasons this tech is advancing and gaining traction/followers ...i still cant justify in my mind 70-100k cars and pickups

my perception of the "auto-pilot" when i rode with him was much like flying a plane....set course ...monitor fuel....occasional course adjustments......take off and landings etc... but mostly hands free
 
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Casey Jones

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I guess its a definition of "auto-driveing" ........i dont know the exact term for the software in his car.......but its hands free 95% of the time includeing lane changes etc ......maybe a super duper cruise control? LOL........and i remember him saying just the software part cost a extra 10k ish...........and i guarantee he is addicted to it...........the whole point to my post was there are reasons this tech is advancing and gaining traction/followers ...i still cant justify in my mind 70-100k cars and pickups

my perception of the "auto-pilot" when i rode with him was much like flying a plane....set course ...monitor fuel....occasional course adjustments......take off and landings etc... but mostly hands free
If you have to take charge of the car five percent of the time, you have to be paying attention 100 percent of the time.

I don't see it working. EVER. AI is a series of binary (yes/no) choices. A complex behavior like driving a motor vehicle is a series of about eight layers of analog decisions, as well as human value judgments (run over the dog, or hit a car full of kids?).

Actually, I could see self-driving trains long before self-driving cars. That could reduce the choices significantly, and have more room for absolutes. And...since we're so excited about **ELECTRIC** we could run power wires along railroad rights-of-way. Yeah, I know, it's not exciting to autistics like a battery car is; but it would infinitely cheaper, and we have 150 years of seeing it work. Put a logic unit in, controlling brakes and throttle speed...and you could easily haul crap across the country, with on-call mobile service/"road conductors" for emergencies.
 

ttazzman

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If you have to take charge of the car five percent of the time, you have to be paying attention 100 percent of the time.

I don't see it working. EVER. AI is a series of binary (yes/no) choices. A complex behavior like driving a motor vehicle is a series of about eight layers of analog decisions, as well as human value judgments (run over the dog, or hit a car full of kids?).

Actually, I could see self-driving trains long before self-driving cars. That could reduce the choices significantly, and have more room for absolutes. And...since we're so excited about **ELECTRIC** we could run power wires along railroad rights-of-way. Yeah, I know, it's not exciting to autistics like a battery car is; but it would infinitely cheaper, and we have 150 years of seeing it work. Put a logic unit in, controlling brakes and throttle speed...and you could easily haul crap across the country, with on-call mobile service/"road conductors" for emergencies.

I do understand your points........i was very negative to the whole EV/auto drive car thing.......and went into it with a very negative dismissive attitude ...i still want to dismiss it ...and yes there are some issues to be refined .....but its comming in spite of us........even a cranky old dismissing never gona change fart like me would certainly see the huge benifit of the current self driving capabilities for people that have a 1hr commute every day in heavy highway traffic like most citys have
 

Voodoo

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If you have to take charge of the car five percent of the time, you have to be paying attention 100 percent of the time.

I don't see it working. EVER. AI is a series of binary (yes/no) choices. A complex behavior like driving a motor vehicle is a series of about eight layers of analog decisions, as well as human value judgments (run over the dog, or hit a car full of kids?).

Actually, I could see self-driving trains long before self-driving cars. That could reduce the choices significantly, and have more room for absolutes. And...since we're so excited about **ELECTRIC** we could run power wires along railroad rights-of-way. Yeah, I know, it's not exciting to autistics like a battery car is; but it would infinitely cheaper, and we have 150 years of seeing it work. Put a logic unit in, controlling brakes and throttle speed...and you could easily haul crap across the country, with on-call mobile service/"road conductors" for emergencies.

This x1,000,000. Otherwise you hit a cop car or something at 100 mph. I'm just not that lazy.

I got my first smart phone at like age 35. I might let the car drive when I'm 70. Still much closer to the former.
 

Casey Jones

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I do understand your points........i was very negative to the whole EV/auto drive car thing.......and went into it with a very negative dismissive attitude ...i still want to dismiss it ...and yes there are some issues to be refined .....but its comming in spite of us........even a cranky old dismissing never gona change fart like me would certainly see the huge benifit of the current self driving capabilities for people that have a 1hr commute every day in heavy highway traffic like most citys have
Here's a writer - who's also a coder, has done AI work, and also writes about cars...here's his take.

He's got some of that Asparger's going on...so his own weekly essays tend to jump around. Even for that, he's very good.


There is a supreme irony at work here. We were told that automation would take the dangerous work and the drudgery away, and that’s kinda-sorta true. The real truth, however, is that automation takes all the easy and livable labor away first, particularly in the service industry, which as you recall is where we all have to work since the factories went to China and the IT work was given to visa-holders. Take four people. Eliminate three of their jobs. Make the last job worse. Yay, progress!


It wasn’t meant to be this way. In the Isaac Asimov future, machines freed us to live more completely as humans. It turns out, however, that artificial intelligence is a sham and computers are, in fact, only good at doing stupid things, albeit quickly. This is why self-driving is Never Gonna Happen the way people think it is. When it Does In Fact Happen, it will be horrifying. They will have to clear all the unpredictable human-operated cars off the roads and limit the speed of the Self-Drivin’ Pods to something well below the velocity at which the occupants would be seriously injured by hitting a concrete barrier. I’m thinking 40mph is probably the maximum. Less in bad weather. So you’ll just be sitting in a pod that takes twice as long to get somewhere as it used to. On the positive side, you’ll be able to watch the new Michelle Obama documentary on Netflix, and by “able to” I mean “forced to”. Keep your expression neutral as you do it, because only a supremacist would frown while watching an Obama documentary. The telescreen will be able to tell if you’re frowning.

Viewed in this light, it’s easy to understand just how predatory our technological revolution has been. We are all Ned Ludd now, looking on in horror as a new machine does all the easy stuff and leaves us the nightmare occupations. The profits, naturally, go to the owner of the machine, who uses them to do things like ridiculous prole-level social engineering and/or buying up all the farmland a la Bill Gates.
 

Unca Walt

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I don't think Tesla will outlive the popping of the Everything Bubble - and that's one more reason Musky Elon is selling his stock in such huge amounts.

As a primary automobile, an electric car simply will not work for most people. Hence, a Tesla is discretionary - and is a New Age fashion accessory, a gaudy way to announce ***I CARE*** to your rich Leftist neighbors.

We aren't going to be there. Between all the sickness, all the death, and all the debt...we're gonna be looking like End Times in ten years, seems like.
You are so spot on. Here is a demonstration right before our eyes:

I-95 in Virginia is locked solid with stuck cars. Snow. A PITA for most, but a fucking disaster of a magnitude not really comprehensible to Tesla owners:

What do they do when the battery runs down... and out? A gas-powered car has the option of pouring some gas in the empty tank, starting the car, and driving off when the road is plowed.

What does the string of Teslas (blocking lanes both ways) do? Why, they have some $30,000 batteries delivered... oop.
 

Voodoo

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You are so spot on. Here is a demonstration right before our eyes:

I-95 in Virginia is locked solid with stuck cars. Snow. A PITA for most, but a fucking disaster of a magnitude not really comprehensible to Tesla owners:

What do they do when the battery runs down... and out? A gas-powered car has the option of pouring some gas in the empty tank, starting the car, and driving off when the road is plowed.

What does the string of Teslas (blocking lanes both ways) do? Why, they have some $30,000 batteries delivered... oop.

That's not really a huge problem. They'll have to get some tow trucks equipped with a big ass Generaic. Or more likely just tow them to a freaking dead-car lot to charge them back up.
 

Joe King

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That's not really a huge problem.
Imo, the "problem" with an EV in such a situation is not how to get the cars outta there, but rather, how long will the battery be able to supply power to heat the car for the occupants stuck inside it?

An ICE powered car can idle for about 5 hours or so on a gallon of gas. That means those stuck in their cars can keep warm for quite awhile, even if they only have a partial tank gas.

How long can a half charged Tesla run it's heater for in sub-freezing weather?
 

Unca Walt

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'zackly.

Aaaaannnd... suppose there are 1000 Teslas on the fargin road -- all stuck in snow exactly like the Virginians are as you read this -- where you gonna get the MOBILE generators to jazz the frozen batteries? And HOW you gonna get them there? Heliocoptators?
 

Unca Walt

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'zackly.

Aaaaannnd... suppose there are 1000 Teslas on the fargin road -- all stuck in snow exactly like the Virginians are as you read this -- where you gonna get the MOBILE generators to jazz the frozen batteries? And HOW you gonna get them there? Heliocoptators?
Uh-ooohhh. I just found out what really happens to a Tesla that nips off its turd: Tesla sez: "Gotta have a special tow-truck." Yuppers. A special one.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"You will need to call a flatbed tow truck, not just a tow truck that lifts one set of wheels. Tesla says you could seriously damage the vehicle if it's not on a flatbed. If you have a AAA membership or if your car insurance policy includes towing, we suggest requesting assistance through them. If that's not an option, the best bet is to search online for a local tow truck for assistance."

"Once the tow truck has arrived, you need to put the Tesla into Transport Mode, which is basically a setting that puts the vehicle in neutral so it can be pulled up on the tow truck. The setting is located in the Service menu in the touchscreen. At that point, we recommend having the Tesla towed to the most convenient charging station, be it your home or a Tesla Supercharger."
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Awright, let's reset to 1000 Teslas and 1000 real cars stuck on I-95 inna snow in Virginia:

That is 1000 FLAT BED tow trucks that have to get on I-95... ONE at a time... whistle::tongue::snow:

LATE EDIT ADD: I just really read the above. You've got to put the Tesla into Transport Mode. You will (not!) find the instructions how to do that on the Service menu located on the DEAD touchscreen. So now WTF do you do? You need a battery (it ded) to get the POS up on a flat-bed-only tow truck...
 
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Casey Jones

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Jeez.

Another glitch.

From another failure of design.

Sure...Tesla is gonna take over the auto market. In fact, CONgress will MANDATE they take it over, with subsidies and penalties for competitors.
 

Unca Walt

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It keeps on a-comin'... Picture this in five years when there is a shitload of these battery cars stuck:


And --

 

hammerhead

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Uh-ooohhh. I just found out what really happens to a Tesla that nips off its turd: Tesla sez: "Gotta have a special tow-truck." Yuppers. A special one.
Be the first on your block to buy one.

Doing the hurricane evacuation of Marco Island, my sis got stuck in Tampa ( I think) with her brand new vehicle. Heading back home, she got a flat tire and went to put on the spare but there wasn't one to be had. She had her son and a few dogs with her. The boy's dad came to get them all. Limited gas stations at the time. They made back home ok.

When she called the place that she left her rig, she was told it was under water. Insurance totaled the vehicle.
 

Joe King

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put the Tesla into Transport Mode, which is basically a setting that puts the vehicle in neutral so it can be pulled up on the tow truck.
They can put a car up on those things even if all four wheels are locked up.
 

Unca Walt

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They can put a car up on those things even if all four wheels are locked up.
Oh, yeah... and when the locked up wheels (EV's wheels are different from real cars' locked up wheels) cause the Tesla to be badly damaged, guess who did not follow the destructions... and who is liable.

It don't make anyway. Get enough Teslas on the roads, and we will have a real circus. The ones that don't blow up in four years will need new batterie$. But them flatbed truck drivers be-gonna gittin' rich. :beer:
 

ttazzman

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.......since my son lives and travels in the cold mountains all the time i had several questions and discussions on the "heating" aspects of a tesla .....

some understandings i have ...not putting them out as facts

#1 tesla batteries do lose capacity in the cold something like 10%
#2 early teslas used resistant heating ........newer teslas use a heat-pump setup
#3 the power required to heat is very small compared to motive energy requirements
#4 a tesla battery has around 100kwh capacity
#5 my fully electric home averages 50kwh a day power ussage year around
#6 teslas are rarely charged more than 80% but it is normal to start every driving day at a full 80% charge

from the above ....a lot can be inferred perhaps in error

i suspect a 50% charged newer tesla with the heat pump setup would far far exceed the heating time of a Std ICE car sitting at idle with a 1/2 tank of fuel if both were side by side left running until "fuel" was exhausted
 

Joe King

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Oh, yeah... and when the locked up wheels (EV's wheels are different from real cars' locked up wheels) cause the Tesla to be badly damaged, guess who did not follow the destructions... and who is liable.
I was talkin' about how they can slide a car up on to a flat bed wrecker with the wheels locked up. Long as the wheels can't rotate, and instead slide up the trailer, how could it cause any damage? They aren't being dragged across the ground.
 

ttazzman

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I was talkin' about how they can slide a car up on to a flat bed wrecker with the wheels locked up. Long as the wheels can't rotate, and instead slide up the trailer, how could it cause any damage? They aren't being dragged across the ground.
i was thinking the same thing.....worst part would be possibly slight tire flat spotting.......certainly no worse than locking brakes up on the highway
 

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Ford EV150 loses 60% to 70% when towing. Sure hope you don't need heat or AC or headlights or radio or......... don't even think about going uphill
 

Voodoo

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Uh-ooohhh. I just found out what really happens to a Tesla that nips off its turd: Tesla sez: "Gotta have a special tow-truck." Yuppers. A special one.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"You will need to call a flatbed tow truck, not just a tow truck that lifts one set of wheels. Tesla says you could seriously damage the vehicle if it's not on a flatbed. If you have a AAA membership or if your car insurance policy includes towing, we suggest requesting assistance through them. If that's not an option, the best bet is to search online for a local tow truck for assistance."

"Once the tow truck has arrived, you need to put the Tesla into Transport Mode, which is basically a setting that puts the vehicle in neutral so it can be pulled up on the tow truck. The setting is located in the Service menu in the touchscreen. At that point, we recommend having the Tesla towed to the most convenient charging station, be it your home or a Tesla Supercharger."
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Awright, let's reset to 1000 Teslas and 1000 real cars stuck on I-95 inna snow in Virginia:

That is 1000 FLAT BED tow trucks that have to get on I-95... ONE at a time... whistle::tongue::snow:

LATE EDIT ADD: I just really read the above. You've got to put the Tesla into Transport Mode. You will (not!) find the instructions how to do that on the Service menu located on the DEAD touchscreen. So now WTF do you do? You need a battery (it ded) to get the POS up on a flat-bed-only tow truck...

Not that unusual. Subaru's have to be towed on a flat bed as well.
 

ttazzman

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Ford EV150 loses 60% to 70% when towing. Sure hope you don't need heat or AC or headlights or radio or......... don't even think about going uphill

dont know about the ford.......but the tesla gains back on the downhill runs .....intresting to go down a mountain and gain 10% charge
 

Casey Jones

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Uh-ooohhh. I just found out what really happens to a Tesla that nips off its turd: Tesla sez: "Gotta have a special tow-truck." Yuppers. A special one.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"You will need to call a flatbed tow truck, not just a tow truck that lifts one set of wheels. Tesla says you could seriously damage the vehicle if it's not on a flatbed. If you have a AAA membership or if your car insurance policy includes towing, we suggest requesting assistance through them. If that's not an option, the best bet is to search online for a local tow truck for assistance."

"Once the tow truck has arrived, you need to put the Tesla into Transport Mode, which is basically a setting that puts the vehicle in neutral so it can be pulled up on the tow truck. The setting is located in the Service menu in the touchscreen. At that point, we recommend having the Tesla towed to the most convenient charging station, be it your home or a Tesla Supercharger."
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Awright, let's reset to 1000 Teslas and 1000 real cars stuck on I-95 inna snow in Virginia:

That is 1000 FLAT BED tow trucks that have to get on I-95... ONE at a time... whistle::tongue::snow:

LATE EDIT ADD: I just really read the above. You've got to put the Tesla into Transport Mode. You will (not!) find the instructions how to do that on the Service menu located on the DEAD touchscreen. So now WTF do you do? You need a battery (it ded) to get the POS up on a flat-bed-only tow truck...
I was racking my brain, trying to figure out WHY this would be so harmful on an electric-drive vehicle...Muskmobiles, IIRC, have the traction motors on the wheel hubs/axles. There is no reason they couldn't spin freely.

Unless...

...one case may be a positive-locking pin to hold the wheel stationary when the vehicle is parked. Like "P" with an automatic transmission...except that four systems are needed, for all wheels. And, electrically-deployed. An issue when the batteries are dead.

The second issue, is traction control. When one wheel is turning faster than other wheels, or one axle set rolling and the other is not...it would enter the logic module as a loss of traction; and (as with modern conventional cars) brakes electrically applied to the wheels turning faster than the other ones. If that doesn't control it, there might be a logic FAIL and a "brick" event - the headless electrical-distribution/traction-control computer schitts the bed, and the whole mess is inoperable.

Until, of course, a ***TESLA AUTHORIZED SERVICE TECHNICIAN*** says the magic words to the logic unit (Flashes it) and it wakes from its coma. Do you know a Tesla Authorized Service Technician? Me, neither. Tesla owners have waited months for relatively-simple repairs.

If anyone OTHER than Elon the Crony had tried to put this crap on the market, he'd have been sued out of existence. Remember Preston Tucker? He probably would have failed in the market, anyway; but for relatively-minor games about waiting lists, the FTC shut him down with about ten Tucker cars built, none delivered.

It all depends on Who You Know, today; and who you own, and who owns you. I submit that Musk has bought the government regulators with money he GOT from government; and the CCP owns Musk because the CCP doesn't give crony cash without very-tight strings attached.
 

Voodoo

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Well I know this guy is a pretty big Tesla fan but he gives a really honest review. And very detailed. So if you want to see what $148,000 will buy here ya go... Tesla is really, really, good at bleeding money from their true fans. I don't see that going anywhere with the general public.

 

gnome

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FWIW
 

gnome

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He disqualifies himself with the pink hair.

How is it that people like THAT, wind up with money?
Maybe you should ignore the pink hair and actually listen to how he became a multi-millionaire at a young age.
The short answer is real estate and stocks.
 

Casey Jones

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I'm not the only value-oriented (former) investor to look at price/earnings and choose to sit this one out.

I didn't believe, until it was happening, that the Fed would openly rig the securities market with printed-up fiat in huge quantities. And I didn't believe it would continue.

Flipping houses, is for lucky fools. There are such types...but I'm neither especially lucky nor a fool. And I was working 80 hours a week - which precludes management of rental properties. I was in Ohio and New York, then, also - and neither are especially friendly, legally, to landlords.

I guess if the Fed Put is still working, and you're just following the crowd, you can make money by BTFD, and by buying any real estate on liar's loans. It works, until it doesn't...