Tesla in ‘Code Red Situation’ as Sell-Off Exceeds 20%

Cigarlover · Aug 29, 2020

Congrats to all who held this long. Pretty amazing run. 300' in March to 2300. It does remind me of the tech bubble in the late 90's. Just buy a stock and wait a couple months for the double. Although this is a 6 bagger on a 300+ dollar stock..
Seems like an obvious short except for the momentum. IMO best to not try and find the top and wait for this to turn down. Jump on it then and ride it down some but don't try to find the exact bottom either. Take a nice slice of the middle and be happy.

gnome · Aug 29, 2020

Cigarlover said:

I caught the bottom on march low almost perfectly at $351...unfortunately, I didn't have enough confidence to go big and ended up chasing.
I was expecting more of a W than V in the broader market.
Can't complain, I've taken profits several times.
Still holding a few "free shares" for a moonshot.

Voodoo · Aug 31, 2020

Well count me in for trying to call the top. Or at least scaling in as I'm now official short 1 share of Tesla. Also added some QQQ puts. I guess I own some AAPL 81.25 puts, that's an odd number.

Edit: 2 shares. Added just under $500. Will consider this a full position for now. got nothing on my Gamestop today though. Long quite a few shares and up 32% today. :2 thumbs up:

That has some real potential if the Robinhooders find out.

gnome · Sep 3, 2020

Voodoo said:

Well count me in for trying to call the top. Or at least scaling in as I'm now official short 1 share of Tesla. Also added some QQQ puts. I guess I own some AAPL 81.25 puts, that's an odd number.

Edit: 2 shares. Added just under $500. Will consider this a full position for now. got nothing on my Gamestop today though. Long quite a few shares and up 32% today. :2 thumbs up:

That has some real potential if the Robinhooders find out.

Hope you made coin on todays move. FYI, I am buyer at $420 or lower.

Voodoo · Sep 3, 2020

I have. Both Bulls and Bears can make money, all about the timing. Not going to boast about it because I complained a heck of a lot lower but at least I didn't throw in till Monday. I'm not going to think about covering until the breakout which was at ~$950 or $180 now.

Casey Jones · Sep 3, 2020

No way you can use rationality against the madness of crowds - who do not even understand the function of corporations.

And there is NO way to know the movement of insiders; or to predict how the Fed Put will be applied.

Caveat Emptor. Caveat Vendor.

Voodoo · Sep 4, 2020

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tsla-tumbles-after-sp-500-shun

Oops. There is no Way they are going to add a company to their index in the middle of a huge bubble. It will just be a giant drag on the index.

MrLucky · Sep 4, 2020

Made a few dineo on this one. Got out though, it's getting too crazy. Would consider a re-entry though at some point.

Cigarlover · Sep 4, 2020

Voodoo said:

I think your going to do very well next week. :).

I am currently playing with a paper money account. Traded this one today and lost 1400 LOL. If I had held I would have broken even. Not worth the risk IMO so i dumped it. Yesterday I had a limit order in on ZM at 350. Figured it would go back and fill the gap around that area. Called it almost perfectly. Dropped to 346. Got my loss back from tala plus turned a profit on the day.. On paper anyway LOL.

chris_is_here · Sep 5, 2020

I just crossed that majic number, 100% total return since I started in mid-March, not bad for 6 or so months of trading.

The month of August was a rut for me, I was trading a lot of NASDAQ small caps and it was hit-or-miss. What has happened? Short sellers are now raping the shit out of smaller companies, the sure sign of encroaching bear market. It took me a few weeks to see and confirm this, so I focused my attention on the one sector that remains hot - the SPAC EV market.

Starting last week, I transitioned money into the SPAC EV market and things have turned around. I believe the drivers of this are money outflow from AAPL, TSLA, NKLA, these issues are played out and the dollars have to go somewhere. Larger cap stocks are fully valued, so the SPAC's are starting to draw the inflow. September and October are going to be great for this sector, with merger dates imminent on several of them. Big money chasing tiny market caps with small floats - you couldn't ask for a better set-up.

Casey Jones · Sep 7, 2020

chris_is_here said:

Ony in nominal terms.

Your "100 percent" will only buy you 60 percent of Real Money, that it would in February. The reality is, you're just seeing the results of inflation (inflating the money-supply, through money-printing) where the blizzard is aimed, first. In Asset Prices - in STAWKS.

Have at it, though. Free money is free money; and there are still some who will take fiat for gold. Just know what you're experiencing and that it has a time-line and end date.

Voodoo · Sep 7, 2020

Casey Jones said:

Inflation isn't running at 200% a year. Not even close yet here in the US. It is possible to have prices or profits that aren't related to inflation.

Casey Jones · Sep 7, 2020

Voodoo said:

Only asset prices are inflating that way, for now. Because that's where the gusher of Free Money has been aimed, first.

The Fed buys T-notes; monetizes it; and makes it available through the Fed Discount Window.

The member Banksters get it at ZIRP - and plow it into the Stawk markets, for their house acccounts. Buy; and with their size, move the market...sell later, for profit; pay back the Fed; re-borrow for ZIRP; buy in again. Commissions paid themselves all the way back and forth. Lather, rinse, repeat.

This inflation of the money supply trickles down into essentials, later...but it does, and that will continue even after the Fed realizes its toxic mistake, or otherwise is forced to stop.

Voodoo · Sep 14, 2020

Tesla bros are back. Probably thinking battery day is going to be something other than sell the news. These people are so dumb/gamblers that I can't even tell if they are for real. The options volume numbers are just crazy. If for real the $1 is probably the $500-$510 call options that expire this Friday. I mean it opened at $380 and closed at $420. They did trade over 40,000 of those contracts today according to Yahoo.

Voodoo · Sep 14, 2020

And not to be outdone Nikola admitted that it's truck wasn't even powered, they just pushed it down hill. Low and behold that didn't even hurt the stock, it was up 11%. :belly laugh:

This is clearly bubble activity.

Casey Jones · Sep 14, 2020

Voodoo said:

They're all trying to front-run the Next Big Thing. The next Unicorn.

Basically, they're trying to front-run the algos. Remember Long Island Iced Tea? A failing startup. Stock was trading for about ten cents a share. Changed their name to Long Island Blockchain, and the stock went up in trading to $10 a share.

That didn't last, but it's easy to manipulate the algos and make a nice payday on a spike.

Cigarlover · Sep 14, 2020

Voodoo said:

Whats 100 x 0? I never learned common core math.
I suppose it is possible to shoot up to new highs by Friday but I wouldn't be betting everything on it.

Voodoo · Sep 14, 2020

Loading up credit cards to buy stock is bad enough. An option is a terrible idea and the most volatile option that expires in 5 days? That's insanity.

Casey Jones · Sep 14, 2020

Voodoo said:

Obviously he's not doing that. He's just goading the Musk fanboiz into doing buying MOAR. He's probably looking to close out, or maybe he's got an option to cover that he bought some time back.

gnome · Sep 14, 2020

Voodoo said:

Nikola is vaporware. They don't have a single factory.

gnome · Sep 15, 2020

Tesla currently offers the lowest-cost residential solar systems in the US - almost half the cost of industry average. They ramping production and hiring at their NY factory, as well as contracting with local installers across the country. SolarCity was a mess when Tesla acquired it, it's gonna grab a lot of market share.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/0...re-expensive-in-1977-tesla-solar-cost-lowest/

Solar PV Panels Were 12× More Expensive In 2010, 459× More Expensive In 1977
September 6th, 2020 by Zachary Shahan

"Average Cost of Solar Power vs. Cost of Tesla Solar Panels

Secondly, looking at the average cost of residential solar in 2020 is interesting by itself. EnergySage notes that it is “about $12,920 after tax credits ($2.91/Watt).” Why is this so interesting? Well, it is dramatically higher than the price of a Tesla rooftop solar panel system.

A rooftop Tesla solar panel system costs just $1.49/watt after federal tax credits. That’s a dramatically lower price than the US average. One reason Tesla can offer a lower cost is that Tesla probably doesn’t include many of the “soft costs” that other companies include. Although it isn’t super clear in that chart above, solar acquisition costs (the cost of getting people to notice you and buy solar panels from you) are fairly high. They’ve also come down in recent years, but solar companies have to spend quite a bit of money attracting solar companies. If you haven’t noticed, Elon Musk could sneeze and it would create 100 headlines. Tesla is perhaps the hottest thing on the planet and millions of potential customers follow tweets and headlines about Tesla for pure entertainment, let alone purchasing considerations.

Also, interestingly, Tesla offers one price per watt across the country. I’ll get to this in the next section, but this is both shocking and a big deal. Also, Tesla has just a few solar system sizes you can choose from. Normally, solar installers come scope out your roof in detail and offer custom designs. If you’ve spent much time in the world, you know that customized products cost more. This is not the same as a mass-produced car versus a unique handmade one, but it makes a difference and must cut Tesla’s costs further.

I will try to explore these differences in coming weeks to try to better understand how Tesla can offer $1.49/watt while the national average is $2.91/watt."

gnome · Sep 15, 2020

I added at $450 (oops), $410, $405, $395, $351.
Sold some at $420.
The bounce off the 50dma looks healthy to me.
I think this going to at least challenge resistance around $500.
Which way it breaks after battery day is anyone's guess.
I'll keep buying the dips and selling rallies, and building a long-term core position to hold for the next 10 years.

Cigarlover · Sep 15, 2020

Not exactly sure how options work but it looks to me that if Arnold did buy those options yesterday he is up big.

Casey Jones · Sep 15, 2020

The Solar City installations, which were to pay for themselves (Tesla now is the successor company) put a rider on homeowners' properties - basically the legal equivalent of an easement, that maintained that the installation was Solar City's and the right to the power was as Solar City determined.

It led to a LOT of legal ensnarement. Remember, Walmart had those installed on many of their stores; some of them started fires, and even a business as powerful as Walmart, had trouble getting the (defective-by-design) solar panels removed, legally.

gnome · Sep 16, 2020

Casey Jones said:

Yes, Solar City was a basket case when they were bought by Tesla.
Prior to that they were a major innovator that help kick off the residential solar boom.
The solar division has been very quiet since the acquisition. We'll see soon if they've turned a corner.

The payback time and lifetime savings look pretty good depending on region and utility.
This is calculated based on $100 electric bill in my area (My bill is closer to $60)

Screen Shot 2020-09-16 at 12.53.51 PM.png

gnome · Sep 16, 2020

This is why Tesla will win. GM is "hoping" to produce 1 million EV's per year by 2025.

Tesla already has a million EV's on the road, and will hit 1 million per year by 2022 at the latest, with the widest profit margins in the industry.

Further, GM thinks they can just slap a battery and drivetrain in their existing chassis and compete... LOL That junk will be obsolete long before it begins production. Nobody will buy them!

Tesla has already re-engineered everything from scratch specifically to optimize for EV cost and performance. They designed everything from chassis, heat pumps, chassis, seats, all the way to their own computer chips and software to be optimized for EVs. They are already way ahead in the race and are innovating faster than anybody else. VW or some of the chinese makers could possibly compete. GM, Ford and Toyota are going to fade fast.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing...esla-slides?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo
"General Motors Shares Jump on 'Ultium' EV Drive System Plans, Tesla Slides
GM outlined its biggest challenge to Tesla's EV dominance Wednesday with a family of five interchangeable drive systems that compliment its new battery technology.
MARTIN BACCARDAXUPDATED:SEP 16, 2020 9:33 AM EDTORIGINAL:SEP 16, 2020
General Motors (GM) - Get Report shares jumped higher Wednesday after the automaker unveiled a family of five electric vehicle drive systems that marks its most significant challenge to Tesla's (TSLA) - Get Report dominance of the clean-energy car market.

GM said its Ultium Drive series of five interchangeable e-axles, along with three battery-powered motors, will be compatible with a wide range of its current vehicle chassies, including pickup trucks and SUVs. Earlier this year, GM pledged to invest as much as $20 billion in its electric and automated vehicle division, which it hopes will ship 1 million cars each year in the U.S. and China by 2025...."

Casey Jones · Sep 16, 2020

Tesla is gonna win because it's the archtypical CRONY corporate scam - and is being propped up by subsidies, by the Fed buying securities, now - and by cultists who lack critical thinking.

/mic drop

gnome · Sep 17, 2020

Casey Jones said:

Tesla vehicles receive no federal tax credits as of Jan 1, 2020. All other automakers still qualify.

They do receive credits from other automakers, who can't figure out how to produce EV's at a profit and would rather pay Tesla to extend their dominance in technology and market share.

Voodoo · Sep 17, 2020

gnome said:

Tesla currently offers the lowest-cost residential solar systems in the US - almost half the cost of industry average. They ramping production and hiring at their NY factory, as well as contracting with local installers across the country. SolarCity was a mess when Tesla acquired it, it's gonna grab a lot of market share.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/0...re-expensive-in-1977-tesla-solar-cost-lowest/

Solar PV Panels Were 12× More Expensive In 2010, 459× More Expensive In 1977
September 6th, 2020 by Zachary Shahan

"Average Cost of Solar Power vs. Cost of Tesla Solar Panels

Secondly, looking at the average cost of residential solar in 2020 is interesting by itself. EnergySage notes that it is “about $12,920 after tax credits ($2.91/Watt).” Why is this so interesting? Well, it is dramatically higher than the price of a Tesla rooftop solar panel system.

A rooftop Tesla solar panel system costs just $1.49/watt after federal tax credits. That’s a dramatically lower price than the US average. One reason Tesla can offer a lower cost is that Tesla probably doesn’t include many of the “soft costs” that other companies include. Although it isn’t super clear in that chart above, solar acquisition costs (the cost of getting people to notice you and buy solar panels from you) are fairly high. They’ve also come down in recent years, but solar companies have to spend quite a bit of money attracting solar companies. If you haven’t noticed, Elon Musk could sneeze and it would create 100 headlines. Tesla is perhaps the hottest thing on the planet and millions of potential customers follow tweets and headlines about Tesla for pure entertainment, let alone purchasing considerations.

Also, interestingly, Tesla offers one price per watt across the country. I’ll get to this in the next section, but this is both shocking and a big deal. Also, Tesla has just a few solar system sizes you can choose from. Normally, solar installers come scope out your roof in detail and offer custom designs. If you’ve spent much time in the world, you know that customized products cost more. This is not the same as a mass-produced car versus a unique handmade one, but it makes a difference and must cut Tesla’s costs further.

I will try to explore these differences in coming weeks to try to better understand how Tesla can offer $1.49/watt while the national average is $2.91/watt."

That's pretty easy. They are playing games and blowing smoke. There are good reasons why most reputable installers have to take a site survey before designing the systems.

Voodoo · Sep 17, 2020

gnome said:

The whole carbon credit system is a scam but that's another story that I won't blame on Tesla. Elon is very good at figuring out how to use government money.

Buck · Sep 17, 2020

gnome said:

that maybe, but, let me ask everyone here, Billions of dollars have poured into the Golden State in the form of Solar Panels, they're everywhere

Some here, in the large cities, they experience daily Brownouts, power outages...why is that?

Because we don't have enough electricity...the amount of panels that have been built, paid for and installed, should have taken care of that - According To Scientists, it should have

listen up here;
It Didn't

Casey Jones · Sep 17, 2020

Buck said:

Scientists? Hardly. Government fake-scientists.

Hopium and unicorn-farts, took the place of science and technology.

Buck · Sep 17, 2020

i took some privilege with that word scientist...

gnome · Sep 18, 2020

Buck said:

that maybe, but, let me ask everyone here, Billions of dollars have poured into the Golden State in the form of Solar Panels, they're everywhere

Some here, in the large cities, they experience daily Brownouts, power outages...why is that?

Because we don't have enough electricity...the amount of panels that have been built, paid for and installed, should have taken care of that - According To Scientists, it should have

listen up here;
It Didn't

One word: Storage.

Voodoo · Sep 18, 2020

gnome said:

What time of day are the blackouts occurring?

Joe King · Sep 18, 2020

gnome said:

How many Decades will it take to build that storage?

Buck · Sep 18, 2020

gnome said:

as mentioned, storage sounds good but:

Potential is all that is stored, the potential to make electricity is stored, etc, and as i mentioned, these building are all over the place, so, with all that storage potential, why is the power still cycled in the middle of the day, all day?

Joe King · Sep 18, 2020

Buck said:

Because your fearless leaders of commiefornia are using that to teach you about the evils of capitalism, would be my guess.

Buck · Sep 18, 2020

Joe King said:

this is going on across the country so, i'm expecting more of you to 'git woke'

gnome · Sep 18, 2020

Voodoo said:

Late afternoon, early evening. After solar production has peaked, but heat hasn't dissipated and people come home and crank the AC.

Tesla in ‘Code Red Situation’ as Sell-Off Exceeds 20%

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