“Put not your trust in money, but put your money in trust.” Oliver Wendell Holmes
• Trust is the basic value of interpersonal cooperation and the cement of our social order. The erosion of our “trust capital” can be observed in many areas of society.
• The breakdown of trust in the international monetary order is manifesting itself in the highest gold purchases by central banks since 1971 and the ongoing trend to repatriate gold reserves.
• Gold reaffirmed its portfolio position as a good diversifier as trust in the “Everything Bubble” was tested in Q4/2018. While equity markets suffered double digit percentage losses, gold gained 8.1% and gold mining stocks 13.7%.
• The normalization of monetary policy was abruptly halted by the stock market slump in Q4/2018. The “monetary U-turn” that we already forecasted last year has begun.
• Recession risks are significantly higher than discounted by the market. In the event of a downturn, negative interest rates, a new round of QE, and the implementation of even more extreme monetary policy ideas (e.g. MMT) are to be expected.
• When it comes to trust in investments, our vote is clear. Trust looks to the future, forms itself in the present, and feeds itself from the past. Gold can look back on a successful five-thousand-year history as sound money
“Gold is ‘clotted’ trust or, if you like, clotted mistrust against all other promises of value. That leads us to the trail of its strange price movements: Its price rises wherever mistrust arises (mistrust of the future, politics, rulers), and it falls or stagnates where trust prevails." Roland Baader
Everything was "over owned" going into 2008. Everything was "priced for perfection"... the net result was that good trades got sold to cover margin calls on bad ones. We have not got the same setup so it will probably not play the same way. People may go short expecting the same but long liquidation should not be as much of a factor. That should translate to any weakness being quite short lived.
I dont see that happening. It has been my contention for years that $14 silver is bedrock and I havent seen anything yet to change that opinion. So there is that. Also - things never repeat the same as last time. If it did - everyone would be rich. So there is that too...
I see the Yuan down this evening and gold up... thats different... granted its only a couple hours of habbening...but it is different.
I doubt so, the mechanics are a lot different today. today we have an unique situation out there that says that mining is lagging and having a hard time catching up with demand. Not many new big discoveries and that's alarming. Now we have countries that are now buying gold and then the Swift system. So many catalysts going forward. This ain't 2008 by any stretch but it propelled gold to new highs in 2011. We will have a magnified glorious run that will outrun the fox.
Gold 30 min Chart. Current move trendline. Running into that 1312 level of resistance level. Support @ ~ 1309/07 needs to hold for the short term picture to stay positive. Lower will probably break trend.
Leveraged loan indexes tracks institutional loans, for buy outs and such. Market is larger than the high yield bond market and has weak regulation. In recent fed notes, LL's have been flagged as "a risk worth monitoring" (ie admission the economy is slowing).
U.S. Officials Meet in Secret Over Junk-Loan Frenzy as Recession Alarms Flash
Updated Jun 1, 2019 11:21 AM EDT Original: May 31, 2019
No details were provided on the gist of the discussion, though according to the statement the panel heard an "update" from Craig Phillips, a counselor to Mnuchin, on recent market developments involving "corporate credit and leveraged lending."
I am close to redemption on my June calls. On more short term push up and I will cash in and consider myself fortunate. It is really tough to be right AND be right at the right time. On the other hand my Sept calls are looking to be in the driver’s seat. My promise to the great casino gods: give me one more strong day and I promise not to blow it by being a greedy pig.
1328 was the high and now we pause. The time scale is a lot more compressed than I'd come to expect. You just get used to the slow grind I guess. A few hours room to slide into trend and then we get to see if it is respected. So far this is a classic trend with multiple points defining it (aka >3), albeit in the 30 min chart... once upon a time you used to see these trends play out on the daily... now not so much.
IMO this is running too hot which reduces the chances of a $1340 break. Best case is we pause between here and there and digest the move before tackling the 1340 level. Second best we retrace from 1340 and then make a solid break. If not we could spend more time bouncing around down in the 12's. I guess this could be a runaway break but they are not very common so don't count on that. We need to catch our breath IMO!
once it's support then risk is reduced and it's tradeable, between the boxes is no man's land (pivot 1305). potential moves are too sharp in no man's land. all about risk. recall how i can hit every target and daily close when it's in the box. predictable.
If gold penetrates 1370, that's a line in the sand and a formidable resistance that stuck me for so long, back to March-April 2014. If that line is breached to the upside, then nothing will stop gold on the way to 2,800???