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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Strawboss

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I am a little bit pissed as I wake up...

Sold 1/2 my LEAPs yesterday (Jan22 65 GDXJ calls)...

The reason is because today is quad witching option expiration and the volatility usually decreases from here...with volatility in the miners are extreme highs - my thinking is that option prices are going to decrease - even if the underlying stays steady...

At least that was my theory...(which I am gonna stick with until at least Monday)...but - I woke up today to gold back over 1500 and my remaining 1/2 position showing a nice gain...

Lamenting what could have been...

By the by - does anyone have any knowledge of what happens to option prices after quad witching is over? Is there usually a decrease in the volatility (which would lower the option prices)?
 

louky

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?

The derivative is down and the underlying is up.

I have no idea on the math here, have not looked, but...

1. You'd have to assume that JNUG had not fully discounted the underlying's price.

2. Or we have a very negative disconnect.

3. Or we are simply scared of leverage in this volatility.


I vote 3.
Yea, the derivative jnug is never cheap. If you go on any trading community, stocktwit, whatever right now all you see is comments howcheap it is before they get obliterated further. Has 80% more to lose before another split is my guess. Stocks can be cheap, derivatives never are.
 

savvydon

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I am a little bit pissed as I wake up...

Sold 1/2 my LEAPs yesterday (Jan22 65 GDXJ calls)...

The reason is because today is quad witching option expiration and the volatility usually decreases from here...with volatility in the miners are extreme highs - my thinking is that option prices are going to decrease - even if the underlying stays steady...

At least that was my theory...(which I am gonna stick with until at least Monday)...but - I woke up today to gold back over 1500 and my remaining 1/2 position showing a nice gain...

Lamenting what could have been...

By the by - does anyone have any knowledge of what happens to option prices after quad witching is over? Is there usually a decrease in the volatility (which would lower the option prices)?
Don't beat yourself up. I woke up today hoping to see my SLV options (short term and LEAPS) juiced a bit with the green activity in silver. Getting next to nothing. Always seems the benefit of the doubt goes the other way when it comes to options...

Don't worry, I'm not bitter!:bang head:
 

hernancortes

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Rip Van Winkle

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Anyone buying TVIX?
 

louky

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louky

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Ggsm took 100% gain on 30% of flip position, will take 30%more off when lying scammers at etrade and tdameritrade remove online order restriction, then the rest at 52 week highs retest. Thanks for the risk free $$$$$ printing press...dont get that opportunity too often
Have to remind myself to stick to plan and sell my flip position on the way up even though pennies coming

IMG_20200320_161034.jpg
 

dpong

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Goldhedge

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Interesting

Jim Rickards: economic freeze is here, get gold, silver if you can and get ready

 

Goldhedge

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Have to remind myself to stick to plan and sell my flip position on the way up even though pennies coming
What's a 'flip position'?
 

Zed

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Bailing out the whole world!
 

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Zed

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Clade X Pandemic Exercise

(Segment 1 of 4) Clade X is a day-long pandemic tabletop exercise hosted by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security on May 15, 2018, in Washington, DC. The exercise simulates a series of National Security Council-convened meetings of 10 US government leaders, played by individuals prominent in the fields of national security or epidemic response. Drawing from actual events, Clade X identifies important policy issues and preparedness challenges that could be solved with sufficient political will and attention. These issues were designed in a narrative to engage and educate the participants and the audience. Lessons learned from Clade X will be distilled by the Center and shared broadly. More information is available at http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.or...






 

Zed

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Gold Open Interest for Friday : 554,591 + 1,413
Silver Open Interest for Friday :158,290 -1,392

Essentially flat, no change to speak of.
 

Zed

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Alasdair Macleod: “By smashing the gold price, bullion banks have reduced their short positions on Comex by $35 to $40 billion. If OI (Open Interest) had continued to rise from mid-Jan some of them would be bust. This is what it is all about. Is the smash over? Maybe. But the paper market game will never be the same.”

We will see about that... hopefully it is a watershed event in that market.
 

Strawboss

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This monthly chart of GDXJ doesnt look very promising...

1584791978955.png
 

JayDubya

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Alasdair Macleod: “By smashing the gold price, bullion banks have reduced their short positions on Comex by $35 to $40 billion. If OI (Open Interest) had continued to rise from mid-Jan some of them would be bust. This is what it is all about. Is the smash over? Maybe. But the paper market game will never be the same.”
I don't know a damn thing, but I'm willing to bet the paper market will be EXACTLY the same. 'Tis nothing but a speedbump
 

Strawboss

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This monthly chart of GDXJ doesnt look very promising...

View attachment 158362
The Weekly chart looks better. I think between now and month end will tell the tale on where we are headed from here...if we get a rally - it might make the monthly chart look a bit better and based on the weekly - it could be a nice rally...but - too soon to tell one way or the other in my opinion.

1584807623078.png
 

dpong

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GDX/GDXJ Miners, etc. I think a historic buying opportunity is right before us. If history repeats, like 1929, 2008. We'll see.

PqWOwoEr.png
 

Goldhedge

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Alasdair Macleod: “By smashing the gold price, bullion banks have reduced their short positions on Comex by $35 to $40 billion. If OI (Open Interest) had continued to rise from mid-Jan some of them would be bust. This is what it is all about. Is the smash over? Maybe. But the paper market game will never be the same.”

We will see about that... hopefully it is a watershed event in that market.
Interesting the timing of all these "event's" don't you think??
 

Goldhedge

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GDX/GDXJ Miners, etc. I think a historic buying opportunity is right before us. If history repeats, like 1929, 2008. We'll see.
I think so too, but not just the juniors... There are 'other' opportunities not related to AuAg... if you want to diversify....
 

Weatherman

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GDX/GDXJ Miners, etc. I think a historic buying opportunity is right before us. If history repeats, like 1929, 2008. We'll see.
I hope you are right. I went all in Thursday.
 

dpong

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I meant soon. But this could be it.
 

Goldhedge

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Traders Dread Getting Sent Home as Markets Move Faster Than WiFi

Liz Capo McCormick, Lananh Nguyen and Stefania Spezzati
Bloomberg
March 20, 2020

(Bloomberg) -- As the old adage goes, “it’s bad to be slow in a fast market.” Asset mangers say they’re living the worst of both as Wall Street traders work from home.

Columbia Threadneedle Investments’ Gene Tannuzzo said completing trades is harder then ever, in part because many dealers working remotely don’t have full capacity to transact. Lon Erickson of Thornburg Investment Management said it’s taking longer to get all parties on the phone to “spot” -- or agree on where a Treasury yield is in order to price a corporate bond.

“It can increase the wait and anxiety because Treasuries move a lot in five minutes in this current market,” said Erickson, a portfolio manager. “And if you are in a knife fight over individual basis points on a daily basis, that will be more anxiety than you maybe want to live with.”

A swath of the world’s traders, analysts, sales personnel and money managers are working from home on makeshift arrays of monitors some have dubbed “Rona Rigs,” for the coronavirus pandemic that’s forcing Wall Street to lock down trading floors to all but the most essential staff. While there are some fans of telecommuting, complaints abound among traders over poor WiFi internet connections, small screens, lack of access to office resources and kids running crazy in the background.

Tannuzzo, whose own issues at home include trying to prevent his children from sucking up the broadband with Netflix, said it’s “taking more time to get trades done, especially in any size.”

In a missive to clients this week, Deutsche Bank AG research strategist Jim Reid rattled off a list troubles doing his job at home, including that his mobile reception died and that his house has no landline phone.

more at link
 

Weatherman

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Bless all.jpg