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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Zed

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What is the lesson here?
The crowd is panicked, don't expect rational until they have had a chance to breath for a while.



 

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Zed

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Silver is on the move in Asian markets right now. What would you need to see GSR fall to in order for your flag/pennant shape to blow up?
I'd be looking @ the big candle, say 50% of the body @ ~111. If we broke below that and the indicators where supporting (crosses etc) I'd read it as a top rather than a continuation pattern.

It's the ratio though, I don't typically treat it as a normal chart.
 

Zed

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Zed

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DXY is forming a flag, projecting 110 with a possible 114 and an outside chance of a run away move to 122. If gold hasn't sorted itself out by the time that push comes we could see that ratio spike!
 

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high quality blue chip will fly
With all these stock buybacks what makes a blue chip 'high quality' anymore...?
 

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Silver always seems to lag. I think it got way behind recently and will play catch up here real soon. Already seems to be bringing things back in line. If silver runs to mid 15's this week then GSR is back down to 100 range. A very real possibility but I'm no expert. :ponder::laughing::don't    know2:
 

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I'm thinking KO cause everyone drinks the stuff...
 

Zed

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With all these stock buybacks what makes a blue chip 'high quality' anymore...?
It is where global capital will run, don't forget that anything priced in USD will be attractive to all of us out here on the fringe of the empire because the USD will be on the up. It will be about being in deep liquid USD markets and gold isn't up to handling all of it. The bond markets dwarf everything so the flows will be big when it turns.

Gold should also fly...

...but more so for us out here than you @ the middle of the empire.

Your turn comes later. --> JMO.
 

stAGgering

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A "C Wave" or not, that is the question.
"Gold to drop like a stone, and shorts to rule again.... some with skid marks".
Savagery Savaging the Savaged Savagers !

 

Zed

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jelly

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Hourly chart showing the consolidation in the miners. Question is, does this break to the upside or downside? I would be inclined to say downside given the move up we had in gold today, and that the miners are still consolidating. HOWEVER, given the move we are having in gold overnight, I'm guess this is going to break UP not down.

gdxj.png
 
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I think that I may have "sort of" have a grasp of what's happening to gold. when there is a Coronovirus curfew it shuts down mining. so if many mines start to follow suit then what happens to gold. It could shoot to 3,000 in a very short time, can't be an April's Fools Day joke.
 

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Zed

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Hourly chart showing the consolidation in the miners. Question is, does this break to the upside or downside? I would be inclined to say downside given the move up we had in gold today, and that the miners are still consolidating. HOWEVER, given the move we are having in gold overnight, I'm guess this is going to break UP not down.

View attachment 158685
Yep... consolidations can be a worrying period after a drop like that!
 

Zed

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The big question is whether global CBs will allow the bond market to crash...
If they become the only buyer interest rates in the real economy will fly while .gov rates stay low. It becomes a pointless money printing exercise that the market will discount as such. They can only manage rates while the market supports them. In a fight they lose. There just hasn't been a fight for a long time.
 

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Strawboss

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I remember the day of the silver bottom when it crashed to an intraday low of like $8 or something...I bought some physical - but the premiums were like $4 an ounce or thereabouts...

Premiums currently are being reported at around the $10 level currently. People are struggling to source silver for anything less than $22 or $23...

To me - based on the last experience - the break between the paper price and the physical price signals a bottom. What it suggests is that the paper market can only manipulate so far before the physical market calls their bluff.

I think that is happening now.
 

jelly

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I posted this in another thread, but I think it deserves to be in this thread too. We here are the chart lovers after all...

Reminds me of 2008. Giant move higher, $65 in one day, the largest $ move in gold in one day up to that point, AND only during the New York session. It consolidated for a few weeks, then made one final move to the low of $680.
Now, with $4 trillion in stimulus waiting to pass the senate, I wouldn't expect us to make a lower low. I only point this out to show that a large one-day move higher doesn't always mean the bull market is going to resume immediately.
veryniceday.gif gold2008.png
 

Zed

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Zed

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ASX Gold tribe +16% it's great to watch but kind of worrying at the same time! 1:12 to trade today. Kind of expecting a slam tomorrow... but Nenner did say gold was due to rally this week and bearish goldbugs is a good sign!
 

Zed

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Keep in mind that it's not a head and shoulders until it completes, i.e. breaks the neck line. A failed head and shoulders is often very bullish.
 

Goldhedge

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Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Explodes! Why Is Dollar Up/Gold Down?


George Gammon
 

Goldhedge

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Physical silver supply squeeze about to get worse warns Keith Neumeyer