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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

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Seriously guys, if you are short BEWARE. The dynamic here is such that once it gets started it will rip your face off. Cover first and ask questions later. There should be a flame out and a new op to short when they are done.

The path to hell isn't straight. It will inflict maximum damage.

2c FWIW.
I don't think anyone is short here now after that strong pulse up but I think new lows are due with a combination of no short sellers left and the rapid rise in Coronavirus cases, it may take nine days (or lets make it a sake that it has nine lives!)
 

Zed

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Been posting this same dollar chart since exactly on C
Yep...well, its a call that way pre-dates that on this thread.

2c

FWIW.
 

Zed

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I don't think anyone is short here now after that strong pulse up but I think new lows are due with a combination of no short sellers left and the rapid rise in Coronavirus cases, it may take nine days (or lets make it a sake that it has nine lives!)
There are shorts that will be caught. This will chop.

2c
FWIW
 

louky

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Yep...well, its a call that way pre-dates that on this thread.

2c

FWIW.
Yep, was my first post practically in 2016, but anyone can call blue skies on dollar. I was just talking about the exact precise pattern it's been following. Haven't edited it since before c and at c.
 

louky

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Just read the thread, no one was bulliah $.
I also posted the drop to C. Then at C, Not a soul was bullish dollar, here or anywhere for that matter. Again, anyone can post 10 years in advance with no time frames that dollar will see blue skies 100+ in a crisis..I'm talking about the precision, the wiggles.

Month Jan 2018 candle, the bottom

Screenshot_20200326-070856_Samsung Internet.jpg


Dollar setup.....no comment

C turn posted in the moment bottom
 

Zed

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Just read the thread, no one was bulliah $.
I also posted the drop to C. Then at C, Not a soul was bullish dollar, here or anywhere for that matter. Again, anyone can post 10 years in advance with no time frames that dollar will see blue skies 100+ in a crisis..I'm talking about the precision, the wiggles.

Month Jan 2018 candle, the bottom

View attachment 159031



C turn posted in the moment bottom
Bullshit.
 

savvydon

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Just read the thread, no one was bulliah $.
I also posted the drop to C. Then at C, Not a soul was bullish dollar, here or anywhere for that matter. Again, anyone can post 10 years in advance with no time frames that dollar will see blue skies 100+ in a crisis..I'm talking about the precision, the wiggles.

Month Jan 2018 candle, the bottom

View attachment 159031



C turn posted in the moment bottom
Although I don't have the time or inclination to go through a 400+ page thread, I can tell you that Zed has been calling for a dollar/gold breakout for a long time.
 

louky

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Although I don't have the time or inclination to go through a 400+ page thread, I can tell you that Zed has been calling for a dollar/gold breakout for a long time.
I already know that, i literally have a post here from years ago that says, " i know zed has long standing dollar call"....for 100 plus or something to that effect. No contention there at all.
 

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As far as the $, 1999 called and said we're going party like its.....um, well, 1999. See chart above. Could continue through 2019 as crazy as that sounds. 2020, wile e coyote moment.
One of my first posts in the thread. Zed (or someone on his behalf) showed up to let me know it's already his long standing call for a dollar blow off all those years ago. It's a special, long.standing, endless time frame call for him. I get it. Again, What i was referring to was the wiggles, exact precise pattern, starting before drop to C and from C. Show me any post that was bearish from peak down to C and bullish at C besides mine. Hint: there's neither, i just read the thead back.


Oh, and party like it's 1999 baby, then $ wile e coyote moment
Monthly-DXY-chart-with-annotations.png
 
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dpong

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Unemployment claims. Talk about lunatic fringe.
(3,283,000)

[The dashed line is the actual. Solid line is the moving average.]

dol.png
 

savvydon

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No doubt about that, and it gets plenty of great contributions from all corners, but at heart this thread it is fueled by Zed's incisive take on macro economics.

I'm not Zed, but I have spent enough time on the lunatic fringe to know that his thing really isn't day trading. He does his portfolio management and doesn't spend a whole lot of time talking specifics about it. What he does do, is dissect the current multilayered economic winds and tries to break things down in a clear fashion that helps shed light on how the various pieces fit together.

There are a lot of complementary approaches here, which is what really makes this place work.
 
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No doubt about that, and it gets plenty of great contributions from all corners, but at heart this thread it is fueled by Zed's incisive take on macro economics.

I'm not Zed, but I have spent enough time on the lunatic fringe to know that his thing really isn't day trading. He does his portfolio management and doesn't spend a whole lot of time talking specifics about it. What he does do, is dissect the current multilayered economic winds and tries to break things down in a clear fashion that helps shed light on how the various pieces fit together.

There are a lot of complementary approaches here, which is what really makes this place work.
Zed is in the elite class that we are peasants. Gold should go up a lot from here but not sure is a 5th and last wave down to new lows and the deadliest one for the markets. gold and cash benefits in that scenario.
 

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ABN-AMRO is forcing their gold holders to sell by end of month. No idea the amount we are talking about. It’s only paper...but still...

Not sure how quarter end window dressing is going to look...
 

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Limitless Bailouts! QE Infinity! Is The Dollar Doomed?

 
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Seriously guys, if you are short BEWARE. The dynamic here is such that once it gets started it will rip your face off. Cover first and ask questions later. There should be a flame out and a new op to short when they are done.

The path to hell isn't straight. It will inflict maximum damage.

2c FWIW.
Seriously guys, if you are short BEWARE. The dynamic here is such that once it gets started it will rip your face off. Cover first and ask questions later. There should be a flame out and a new op to short when they are done.

The path to hell isn't straight. It will inflict maximum damage.

2c FWIW.
I missed his report and thankfully not short but I never short stocks anyway. I'm hoping for a retest to the bottom but I doubt ever get that. my stubbornness not to act early.
 
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Unemployment claims. Talk about lunatic fringe.
(3,283,000)

[The dashed line is the actual. Solid line is the moving average.]

View attachment 159046
And the stock market shoots up!! 4-5% up on record unemployment.

maybe if whole country is unemployed we can hit 40k DOW.

edit: actually up over 6% at close.
 
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Goldhedge

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The dynamic here is such that once it gets started it will rip your face off.
The "Come to Jesus" moment...
 
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once I get my $1,200 adult stimulus check, where I should put my money in? Not pink sheets, OTC, 2x, and 3x risky ETFs; and then hold for the next millennium.
 

Zed

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It's a special, long.standing, endless time frame call for him. I get it.
Again BULLSHIT.

It's a macro call that wasn't popular at the time and hasn't done too badly, it will have a logical end point. Since my call I've seen more and more people in the institutional space come to the same conclusion. That much has been gratifying, it is not very often you are early with a big theme call like that. More often than not it's a call someone else makes that causes my 'penny to drop' and I share it if it makes sense to me.

It isn't "endless", we are just not there yet. USD up first then down if something significant and fundamental doesn't change as a result of the crisis that a very high USD will produce. This is where we MAY see systemic change "for our own good". So the USD big bad bear may never get here, it may be a currency reset with a new crypto issued. I really don't know about that and I think that we are probably still to early for society to make that step. I lean toward the USD bear, but it will become a race to the bottom with competing currencies so I don't see that as long term call, more a series of mid term up and down waves as various strategies are employed to lower currency values around the world.

Anyway, gold up, usd with it... still in play @ the least I think. I can't see the end of it on a macro basis yet... I thought that 120 was the target years ago, I now think that its higher, potentially much higher. I think that the stress really starts to ramp up @ 120 and that is where you will see big steps taken to halt things.

For now I think that the Euro area's 'issues' will drive this to its high... so watch them for some radical moves surrounding banking and currency.

2c
FWIW
and as always JMO.
 
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Zed

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And the stock market shoots up!! 4-5% up on record unemployment.

maybe if whole country is unemployed we can hit 40k DOW.

edit: actually up over 6% at close.
Short covering on re-balancing into month end. A lot of these funds have rules that they just apply regardless of market conditions, under current conditions they are buying stocks. They are "brain dead" formulaic responses tot he market but there may be enough volume to chase the shorts out of positions which will make it a hard and fast rally.
 

Zed

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Perth Mint Email said:
There’s no doubt COVID-19 is having a huge impact on us all. At The Perth Mint, our focus is on the health and wellbeing of our staff as well as the continued service to our customers throughout Australia and beyond.

In the past few weeks, my team and I have introduced rolling shifts across dual sites to ensure safe distancing between our employees as well as adopting remote working options and increased hygiene practices in accordance with current government guidelines.

Right now, we are experiencing unprecedented demand. Our precious metal volumes remain high, though there may be some delays and temporary shortages of specific items we manufacture. Our teams are doing the very best they can, so your patience is greatly appreciated.

The Perth Mint has been proudly operating since 1899 and we take our responsibility as one of Australia’s largest exporters seriously. We fully intend to continue our service to all customers throughout this period. Together, we know we will all get through this.

As a State Government trading enterprise, all our operations are guaranteed by the Government of Western Australia. This is your assurance of trust in us and our unflagging commitment to you.

Our Refinery

  • The Perth Mint is not dependent on funding from any external providers, ensuring there is no risk of default or non-payment for our mining customers.
  • We continue to refine more than 90 percent of Australia’s gold production, our refinery remains open and this volume is not decreasing.
  • Trusted as a partner to the Australian mining industry for over 120 years, we have the knowledge, experience and technology to continue operating in this challenging time.
Our Depository

  • The Perth Mint offers the world’s only government guaranteed suite of tailored storage and investment programs.
  • With the largest network of central bank-grade vaults in the southern hemisphere The Perth Mint is one of the safest places in the world to buy and store precious metals.
  • Please contact your Authorised Distributor should you have any questions. The Perth Mint Depository is currently receiving higher than usual call, email, trade and application volumes so please be patient with our teams and our distributors should you experience delays.
Our Minted Products and Bullion

  • As the inaugural producer of the official Australian bullion coin program, we are experiencing an all-time high-level demand for our products.
  • Our production teams are working tirelessly to meet customer demand. Please be patient if a particular item that you are after is delayed.
Our Shop and Exhibition

  • For your health and safety, our showrooms, guided tours and exhibition are currently closed. Gifts, jewellery and minted products are still available online.
  • Bullion and gold jewellery buy-back services are operating from our East Perth location, Monday to Friday from 9am – 5pm. Social distancing requirements will be required.
From all of us here at The Perth Mint, we want to extend strength and good health to everyone around the world during this challenging time. We thank you for your continued support.

Richard Hayes, CEO of The Perth Mint
 

Zed

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GSR holding up @ the mid big candle level. So far it's looking a little more like a consolidation than a top. Not good for the metals @ this point. I would like to see this level break down.

GSR-D-20200327-1.gif
 

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So - Australia has some of the most secure vaults in the world - backed by the Australian government, eh?

If say....China decides it wants the gold...whats the plan? I mean - they REALLY want the gold...
 

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GSR holding up @ the mid big candle level. So far it's looking a little more like a consolidation than a top. Not good for the metals @ this point. I would like to see this level break down.

View attachment 159144
A change in trend requires a lower low, right?

Perhaps what we are seeing transpire is the 1st low - followed by a rally that fails to make a new high - followed by a lower low...

Gotta happen at some point, right?

Truth be told - we are all guessing at this juncture - trying to figure out if a GSR of almost 130 is the high...

130.

(Insert Twilight Zone music here....)
 

Zed

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So - Australia has some of the most secure vaults in the world - backed by the Australian government, eh?

If say....China decides it wants the gold...whats the plan? I mean - they REALLY want the gold...
They will buy it.

L@@k at what you have to do to 'invade' our country or hold it. It's a logistical nightmare of the highest order and before you got too far you'd have the USA on your back.

Taking it any other way would make it the most expensive gold on the planet!

China wants our resources period, end of story... but buying it works so much better simply because we are cost effective diggers!

As for secure... if they are not operating then there is no gold business worldwide, everything would be shut down and you'd have other things to worry about. Ensuring that the mint operates and is trusted is a top priority for the WA gov. To do anything to that reputation would destroy a big $$$$ earner for the state. Both sides of politics will make sure that it operates and delivers if it is at all possible to do so.

Frankly it is about the last mint on the planet you should be concerned about.
 

Zed

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Perhaps what we are seeing transpire is the 1st low - followed by a rally that fails to make a new high - followed by a lower low...
Could just be the consolidation playing out.

However, if it fails then its extra bearish for the ratio as there will be more broken expectations behind the trade.

I can't conceive that we got to the number we got to let alone higher... but its possible on that chart, in fact more probable for now. 144 is on the table, which is gob-smackingly epic, but there you have it.

144 could prove to be the divergent move into a high. It could be off the back of a strong gold move and lagging silver. That may be a good thing for silver ultimately.
 

Zed

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Here we go!

There is also a spike.
View attachment 159151
High Pole

The high pole warning is given when a chart rises above a previous high by at least 3 boxes, before reversing to give back at least 50 percent of the rise. The reversal implies that the demand that was making the prices rise has given way to supply pressure. The pattern is a warning that lower prices could be seen in the future.