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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Goldhedge

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"Credit is dead"

"This entire explosion will be blamed on CV19 not on the fact of overextension of bad loans or the spider web of derivatives which in fact is the reason for this explosion on Earth." Jim Sinclair (explosion = monetary meltdown)
 

Goldhedge

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Alternate Unemployment Charts
The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.

The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The U-6 unemployment rate is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) broadest unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other marginally-attached workers as well as those forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment.

ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment for April 2020 is 35.4%, 39.6% net of BLS errors (see Flash No. 1435).


"Courtesy of ShadowStats.com"​
 

jelly

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Taking a look at GDX.
I thought I'd compare the current move with what we experienced in 2016 on that huge rise out of the 2016 Lows. I'm surprised I held anything during that time.
The run out of the 2016 lows had several scary moments on the way up, with several sell signals. Looking back with "20-20 hindsight" we can easily say that there was some really good money to be made in that move if you held on. However, you had to ride a bucking bronco, with many potential and sometimes clear sell signals.
Comparatively, the move we're having right now has been easy money!

2016-GDXrun.png
 

Zed

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Zed

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Taking a look at GDX.
I thought I'd compare the current move with what we experienced in 2016 on that huge rise out of the 2016 Lows. I'm surprised I held anything during that time.
The run out of the 2016 lows had several scary moments on the way up, with several sell signals. Looking back with "20-20 hindsight" we can easily say that there was some really good money to be made in that move if you held on. However, you had to ride a bucking bronco, with many potential and sometimes clear sell signals.
Comparatively, the move we're having right now has been easy money!

View attachment 164678
Yeah... nervous market or what!
 

Zed

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nowon

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Yes... He makes my "Lunatic Fringe" numbers look completely conservative.
Thing is that he claims to have used the same method to also make his earlier predictions of $900 and $1650, both of which came true on schedule....

If it comes to pass, and gold does get over $50k, hope a good percentage is real growth and not just inflation.
 

Zed

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Thing is that he claims to have used the same method to also make his earlier predictions of $900 and $1650, both of which came true on schedule....

If it comes to pass, and gold does get over $50k, hope a good percentage is real growth and not just inflation.
Yeah... I dunno.

Also not sure what it would look like out here on the edge of the world.

It seems to imply that the USD is no longer strong enough to be reserve.... so... ?!
 

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Strawboss

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1589194516141.png
 

Strawboss

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dpong

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I caught Sinclair's interview yesterday. Back in 2015 he said we would see 50K Gold by 2020. He does make some interesting points though and he does appear to be in full control of his faculties at this time.
Nice to see you! I finally read the trend following book. That changed things.
 

Zed

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I caught Sinclair's interview yesterday. Back in 2015 he said we would see 50K Gold by 2020. He does make some interesting points though and he does appear to be in full control of his faculties at this time.
Yeah... I just don't like what 50K gold probably says about the world at that time. Not good!

Good to see you again.
 

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Been rustling the hair of the BTC guys on Twitter... they are "block happy snowflakes" that think BTC is an all new special market that behaves like no other! If you don't fully tow the line they block you, reminds me of certain goldbugs 10/15 years ago!
 

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Been rustling the hair of the BTC guys on Twitter... they are "block happy snowflakes" that think BTC is an all new special market that behaves like no other! If you don't fully tow the line they block you, reminds me of certain goldbugs 10/15 years ago!
Oh these millenials really are arrogant and cant handle normal arguements. Somehow they get 100% invested into something and shut anything else down.

I've been thinking and looking for alt-coins that are actually used/useful for transactions. Haven't invested a dime yet.
 

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dpong

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One of my actual purchases, bought Stamps.com on the open. Up 6.57% on the day. #AnythingCanHappen

[Previous aborted trade on this chart was loss of 13.08%]

u02QUWmD.png
 

dpong

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Positive expectancy.

EXtbPuOUMAIQs1u.jpeg


SnP400_Histogram.png
 

dpong

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Tired of making a bunch of money and then giving back even more. About 10 years ago you gave me the book Trend Following. Last year I finally read it. Then I read a lot more. So now here I am. It’s all your fault. True story.
 

Goldhedge

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I caught Sinclair's interview yesterday. Back in 2015 he said we would see 50K Gold by 2020. He does make some interesting points though and he does appear to be in full control of his faculties at this time.
Well, it could be possible.... Still have half a year to go!! LOL

All things being equal... we are in the middle of a financial reset disguised as a viral pandemic. Who knows what could happen?

I'm just happy we have someone who understands business in the WH and not some old hag of a grandmother who would sell you into slavery without much thought as long as she could make a buck!
 

Zed

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One of my actual purchases, bought Stamps.com on the open. Up 6.57% on the day. #AnythingCanHappen

[Previous aborted trade on this chart was loss of 13.08%]

View attachment 164817
Those initial BIG moves can take some digesting, it's not unusual to see the market step back to make sure it is real before proceeding.
 

Zed

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Well, it could be possible.... Still have half a year to go!! LOL
Didn't he basically say by 2032 in that new vid? It looks like he is now using Armstrong's ECM as a time template. Also talked about 2024 or so another ECM date.
 

Goldhedge

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Didn't he basically say by 2032 in that new vid? It looks like he is now using Armstrong's ECM as a time template. Also talked about 2024 or so another ECM date.

Yeah, he's using old school charting... you know how unreliable that can be....
 

Zed

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Zed

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Yeah, he's using old school charting... you know how unreliable that can be....
One thing that all chartists need to understand is how it sows the seeds of it's own destruction. That is to say the more widely a classic charting technique is used the less valid the signal generally becomes. This is because it introduces all manner of ill-disciplined and under educated players that misinterpret the signal, act early, act late, generally screw it up somehow AND you also get the crowd that take to gaming those playing the signal. In a majority professional market like Forex the opposite occurs and signal quality improves as the crowd is educated and disciplined... but in public markets... oy vey!

In the Tech bull market TA that had worked for decades got popularized and totally fucked up. It came back to some degree but still the "in vogue" TA signals are not to be trusted.

This is why I look for things in my private trading that are not followed widely and I keep very quiet about them. It helps filter the noise.

For instance.. read the T/A books about what makes a proper H&S pattern... then look @ how nearly every commentator fucks it up.

A word to the wise... popular is not always good in markets!
 

Strawboss

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we are in the middle of a financial reset disguised as a viral pandemic.
Pretty much puts a bow around all that is happening...

Didn't he basically say by 2032 in that new vid? It looks like he is now using Armstrong's ECM as a time template. Also talked about 2024 or so another ECM date.
Sinclair is the one who originally turned me on to Armstrong many years ago...he said that Armstrong is the go to guy for timing...
 

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