• "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding high finance, politics, constructionist Constitution, and mental masturbation of all types"

The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
2,331
Likes
2,162
Weekend Trend Trader scanner returned 1 stock for Monday purchase. NVDA. Man that doesn't look like a winning trade. Previous trade netted 10.23%. Trade before that was negative 9.52%. What-do-you-gonna-do Mortimer?

[Market order placed.]

PW9YfYCm.png
 

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
2,331
Likes
2,162

Lancers32

New Member
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
95
Likes
95
Location
Down South
NVDA looks a bit overextended but it could go higher if the market catches a bid. Check out the PEG ratio on this. Anything at 1 is fair value over 1 is over valued over 2 is extremely overvalued. Go to Finviz and put in your favorite stock see where it stands on a valuation perspective. You may never buy a stock again as long as you live.
https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NVDA
 

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
2,331
Likes
2,162
QE to Infinity, and beyond.
 

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
2,331
Likes
2,162
Hell if I know if this guy is right or wrong.

 

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
2,331
Likes
2,162
In the day to day stuff he is not bad. Can't wrap my mind around his long term views.
 

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
2,331
Likes
2,162
He said this a month ago:


I didn't believe it then, either.
 

Lancers32

New Member
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
95
Likes
95
Location
Down South
Gary Savage sounds familiar. Quick perusal of his recent stuff seems he was on top of the Feb top and the March bottom. There are just so many prognosticators on YouTube it boggles the mind. Seems to me like the metals are the safest bet mid to longer term.
 

Strawboss

Apocaloptimist
Site Mgr
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
8,068
Likes
15,497
Seems to me like the metals are the safest bet mid to longer term.
The metals (and the miners) are the only market that makes sense to me. Even with the manipulation...because I understand WHY they are manipulated.
 

Goldhedge

Moderator
Site Mgr
Sr Site Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
49,500
Likes
89,013
Location
Rocky Mountains
Can't find any coin to be had nowhere?

Purchase metals using leverage via mining stocks
 

Goldhedge

Moderator
Site Mgr
Sr Site Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
49,500
Likes
89,013
Location
Rocky Mountains
Slow news weekend... got gold?



Goldman Spots A Huge Problem For The Fed

by Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/15/2020 - 19:45

Last week, the Treasury shocked the world when it announced that in the current quarter (the 3rd of the fiscal year), the US will need to sell a mindblowing, record $3 trillion (pardon, $2.999 trillion) in Treasurys to finance the US money helicopter.



This, after selling $807 billion in the first half of the fiscal year, and another $677 billion in the quarter ending Sept 30.

And since it is just a matter of time before Congress has to pass yet another fiscal package which will be at least another trillion dollars, and up to $3 trillion if the Democrats get their wish, one can say that Guggenheim's projection of over $5 trillion in debt issuance this calendar year will be wildly conservative.
 
Last edited:

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
2,331
Likes
2,162

Lancers32

New Member
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
95
Likes
95
Location
Down South
So you see why the greybeards are saying the market might be a tad over valued? Might be the only place aside from the metals to run (equities) if Armstrong is right. I guess if rates start to pop that would be the signal.
 

Zed

Rolling Silver Dice!
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
17,371
Likes
17,300
Location
Peeking out from under the keyboard!

Zed

Rolling Silver Dice!
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
17,371
Likes
17,300
Location
Peeking out from under the keyboard!

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
2,331
Likes
2,162
 

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
2,331
Likes
2,162
If you means the Gates piece, it may be the best piece of actual journalism that I've seen in a long while.

[The opposite of a puff piece.]
 

Goldhedge

Moderator
Site Mgr
Sr Site Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
49,500
Likes
89,013
Location
Rocky Mountains
At least it will not cost much when they end up nationalizing errrr the tax payer ends up investing in them.
Isn't that what we've been doing since the REPO crisis hit??
 

Goldhedge

Moderator
Site Mgr
Sr Site Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
49,500
Likes
89,013
Location
Rocky Mountains
If you means the Gates piece, it may be the best piece of actual journalism that I've seen in a long while.

[The opposite of a puff piece.]
Probably not related to 'investing'... trading talk....?
 

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
2,331
Likes
2,162
It is Lunatic Fringe for sure. :)

[Nassim Taleb says don't be a sucker.]
 
Last edited:

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
9,929
Likes
6,743
Location
Bluegrass
Update here, posted from sub pennies....former $'s stock prior to their quiet period (ie, goldprice collapse). Confirmed revival in progress, going current soon with filings. Straight from the ceo's mouth.

 

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
9,929
Likes
6,743
Location
Bluegrass
In active loading phase here, SLOW and steady....1/16th buys down to 15 if it gets there...company is still actively clearing debt



IMG_20200517_174709.png
 

Zed

Rolling Silver Dice!
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
17,371
Likes
17,300
Location
Peeking out from under the keyboard!
So you see why the greybeards are saying the market might be a tad over valued? Might be the only place aside from the metals to run (equities) if Armstrong is right. I guess if rates start to pop that would be the signal.
The problem is that you can't look at the market alone, you have to consider the currency in which it is priced and it's fundamental issues. To pick an extreme example the Zimbabwe stock market was crap but it still flew against the Z$. I think that these ultra full valuations that have developed over the last 5 years or whatever are saying an increasing amount about the currency.

Soooooo much money in bonds, they just have to be at a cycle high unless you believe we can go seriously negative. A world of decreased opportunity... so where are you going to go if you have serious need for return on captial (pension funds etc) and market moving scale i.e. you couldn't buy certain market segments for fear of blowing them up to silly valuations (gold miners). Or that is to say that you couldn't put a big % in these areas. Scale brings its own problems....

You are a money manager sitting on quite a few billion and in theory you need to return 7% ---> What the heck do you do in today's market that will not get you fired?
 
Last edited:

Lancers32

New Member
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
95
Likes
95
Location
Down South
The problem is that you can't look at the market alone, you have to consider the currency in which it is priced and it's fundamental issues. To pick an extreme example the Zimbabwe stock market was crap but it still flew against the Z$. I think that these ultra full valuations that have developed over the last 5 years or whatever are saying an increasing amount about the currency.

Soooooo much money in bonds, they just have to be at a cycle high unless you believe we can go seriously negative. A world of decreased opportunity... so where are you going to go if you have serious need for return on captial (pension funds etc) and market moving scale i.e. you could buy certain market segments for fear of blowing them up to silly valuations (gold miners). Or that is to say that you couldn't put a big % in these areas. Scale brings its own problems....

You are a money manager sitting on quite a few billion and in theory you need to return 7% ---> What the heck do you do in today's market that will not get you fired?
US large cap stocks. Bond rates have declined since 1980 so any right minded person wouldn't bet on a 40 year bull market to continue. But TLT has been a monster and with negative rates it will go quite a bit higher. This bag of shit explodes it is gonna make quite a mess.
 

Zed

Rolling Silver Dice!
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
17,371
Likes
17,300
Location
Peeking out from under the keyboard!
US large cap stocks.
This is exactly what Martin Armstrong says... the money will run to Blue Chip US stocks. This could be epic, and it should just flabbergast the hard core gold heads. I think that gold stocks will be strong here, but I think for US based investors blue chip might be a better, well safer, play. Out here on the rim, considering weaker local currency and probable weaker local blue chip, gold stocks make way more sense in the near term. You lot, however, have a harder choice in this next phase.
 

Strawboss

Apocaloptimist
Site Mgr
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
8,068
Likes
15,497
This is exactly what Martin Armstrong says... the money will run to Blue Chip US stocks. This could be epic, and it should just flabbergast the hard core gold heads. I think that gold stocks will be strong here, but I think for US based investors blue chip might be a better, well safer, play. Out here on the rim, considering weaker local currency and probable weaker local blue chip, gold stocks make way more sense in the near term. You lot, however, have a harder choice in this next phase.
Its not that hard of a choice...

1589795861752.png
 

Lancers32

New Member
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
95
Likes
95
Location
Down South
This is exactly what Martin Armstrong says... the money will run to Blue Chip US stocks. This could be epic, and it should just flabbergast the hard core gold heads. I think that gold stocks will be strong here, but I think for US based investors blue chip might be a better, well safer, play. Out here on the rim, considering weaker local currency and probable weaker local blue chip, gold stocks make way more sense in the near term. You lot, however, have a harder choice in this next phase.
Take a look at the chart of the World stock indices especially Europe and compare them to the US.While the SP500 was making new highs in Feb 2020 the Total World the one with 23 countries in it was well under the 2018 high.

Safest best might be something like the Permanent Portfolio with an underweight on TLT include a proxy for Silver and find a commodity fund of some sort. Check out a guy named Christopher Cole. Dragon Portfolio.
 

Zed

Rolling Silver Dice!
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
17,371
Likes
17,300
Location
Peeking out from under the keyboard!
Take a look at the chart of the World stock indices especially Europe and compare them to the US.While the SP500 was making new highs in Feb 2020 the Total World the one with 23 countries in it was well under the 2018 high.
Yeah, it's not like I trade a market outside the US is it. Thanks for the egg.
 

Zed

Rolling Silver Dice!
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
17,371
Likes
17,300
Location
Peeking out from under the keyboard!
Safest best might be something like the Permanent Portfolio with an underweight on TLT include a proxy for Silver and find a commodity fund of some sort. Check out a guy named Christopher Cole. Dragon Portfolio.
A bit soon for commodities. The USD is going to kill that trade in the near term. Dollar Milkshake and all that. Watch the commodity currencies for the clue. We are (AUD) likely going lower before higher.
 
Last edited:

Zed

Rolling Silver Dice!
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
17,371
Likes
17,300
Location
Peeking out from under the keyboard!