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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Zed

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Morgan Stanley: Monday's Huge Stock Buying Was One Giant Hedge Fund Short Squeeze

Only one? Does that mean there are 'others'.....???
Oh no, the are talking the hedge funds as a group... definitively.
 

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Deliveries up to Monday.

Gold 9506 contracts delivered with 986 still open in May. That is over 3x the normal inactive month delivery level.

Silver 8870 contracts delivered with 215 still open in May. Heading toward double March and over double last December.

Looking forward to the opening salvo in Gold June, being an active month.
 

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Re: The cheap nasty gold stocks and your gambling $

Bob Moriarty: Okay, very important point. So you could see a target’s coming or a correction that’s coming, and you could bail out too early when stock starts doubling or tripling. But let’s go back to the Lawrence Lepard thing. If we have a $6600 gold price, do you want to buy the best stocks out there or do you want to buy the worst stocks?

Goldfinger: Well, you want to buy the ones that have the most potential to move up, the ones that aren’t owned by a lot of people, and so those are probably the worst ones.

Bob Moriarty: Exactly. You actually want to buy the worst ones.

I picked up about ten stocks that are lower than $.10 per share, and I expect them to go up 20, 30, 40, 50, 100-fold. When you have big moves in any commodity whether it be with gold, corn, oil, anything else, you want to buy the most leveraged positions. If somebody came out and said “gold project” and it requires $2000 gold for it to break even, and gold is $1750, if you think gold is going to go up you’re far better off to buy that than somebody who’s got a gold project that needs $600 gold to be profitable. You want the leverage.

But I would say absolutely categorically we have the greatest opportunity in history. There is going to be an enormous shift of wealth from people who are holding paper assets to people who are holding real assets. That very last refuge, the very last safe place is going to be in resources. Strangely enough, it’s not gold and silver, resources in general are the cheapest they’ve been in 55 years compared to the stock market. So you could invest in anything. You could invest in silver or zinc or whatever, damn near anything and make money. The movement in that cycle, whether it’s a year or two or five, I don’t know, are going to be enormous, and you’re going to see stocks go from 10 cents to 10 dollars. And there will be a lot of them.
 

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Thats some substantial physical being taken delivery off...

If that trend continues for a spell...it could presents some "difficulties"...
Difficulties, hmmmm, yes.... but we need to beware the "response" as they are a long way from helpless... unfortunately.
 

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Difficulties, hmmmm, yes.... but we need to beware the "response" as they are a long way from helpless... unfortunately.
Like every night the past two weeks they've been promoting GDX on CNBC and Fast Money. Refreshing to hear but disconcerting. Still think we try to shake out all this new money to get as many as possible to swear off the sector.
 

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Like every night the past two weeks they've been promoting GDX on CNBC and Fast Money. Refreshing to hear but disconcerting. Still think we try to shake out all this new money to get as many as possible to swear off the sector.
The inflow into GDX and GDXJ are probably not from the sheep...

This is institutional money. They started with GDX (biggest and safest)...which was the first to break to new highs. GDXJ just recently broke out above previous high...whereas GDX did it a month ago. And now SILJ is coming to life...

That is the rhythm in a bull market...it starts with the biggest/safest (think Barrick) and after a while - they branch out into the next tier (GDXJ and its components)...and then the silver miners...and then the explorers and penny stocks...

Currently - Barrick is basing (bleeding off the excess exuberance) while the silver miners are popping...

Make no mistake...every single hedge fund, institutional fund, high net worth individual, etc... is aware that the miners are leading the entire market...

We are in the very, very early stages of this bull market...I am thinking like 2003/2005 area...
 

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"I picked up about ten stocks that are lower than $.10 per share" I wish that I knew what are his picks are.
He isn't saying but... high cost projects with enough cash to stay in businesses until POG vaults their cost. That is going to give you the hyper leverage of a lottery ticket.

Play money mind you... cause if they don't go like a rocket they will burn to the ground on the pad.
 

Zed

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The inflow into GDX and GDXJ are probably not from the sheep...

This is institutional money. They started with GDX (biggest and safest)...which was the first to break to new highs. GDXJ just recently broke out above previous high...whereas GDX did it a month ago. And now SILJ is coming to life...

That is the rhythm in a bull market...it starts with the biggest/safest (think Barrick) and after a while - they branch out into the next tier (GDXJ and its components)...and then the silver miners...and then the explorers and penny stocks...

Currently - Barrick is basing (bleeding off the excess exuberance) while the silver miners are popping...

Make no mistake...every single hedge fund, institutional fund, high net worth individual, etc... is aware that the miners are leading the entire market...

We are in the very, very early stages of this bull market...I am thinking like 2003/2005 area...
They ***should*** be buying sensitively until the excess liquidity dries up... then, beach balls and rockets and silly GIM shit.
 

Strawboss

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I was reflecting earlier today on how fortunate we are to have already gotten the BIG collapse in gold stocks behind us...

Many stocks lost between 2/3 and 3/4 of their value in just a few weeks...we wont be seeing an event like that again for many years...

Having said that though - we will have some 30%-50% "corrections" as we progress along this bull market in gold...

If there are any uninitiated reading this thread...be forewarned that when the volatility picks up - you can get your throat ripped out quickly...

And if you have any sense at all...even a little bit...you will never- EVER - use margin in the PM sector...
 

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Old Ted, still banging the silver drum! Maybe his time is coming?
 

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I was reflecting earlier today on how fortunate we are to have already gotten the BIG collapse in gold stocks behind us...

Many stocks lost between 2/3 and 3/4 of their value in just a few weeks...we wont be seeing an event like that again for many years...

Having said that though - we will have some 30%-50% "corrections" as we progress along this bull market in gold...

If there are any uninitiated reading this thread...be forewarned that when the volatility picks up - you can get your throat ripped out quickly...

And if you have any sense at all...even a little bit...you will never- EVER - use margin in the PM sector...
BTFD will be a valid approach for a time.
 

dpong

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Zed

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Zed

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Yeah, I can’t read Ted.
LOL.

Ted will be right the day that the last silver bull gives up on him... and none of the new crowd will know anything about him or give a fuck what he said.
 

dpong

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Any JSMineset subscribers here?
Can’t do that either anymore. Me and Jim and Ted used to have a lot of fun together back in the day. GATA, too as I recall.

[Jim Willie, same deal.]
 

Zed

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Can’t do that either anymore. Me and Jim and Ted used to have a lot of fun together back in the day. GATA, too as I recall.

[Jim Willie, same deal.]
It's a good sentiment tester... I take the pulse every so often.
 

Zed

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Can’t do that either anymore. Me and Jim and Ted used to have a lot of fun together back in the day. GATA, too as I recall.

[Jim Willie, same deal.]
... although, Mr Willie got impossible to take for a long time. He actually wasn't too bad last time, the frustration level must have lowered significantly or summin.
 

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I was reflecting earlier today on how fortunate we are to have already gotten the BIG collapse in gold stocks behind us...

Many stocks lost between 2/3 and 3/4 of their value in just a few weeks...we wont be seeing an event like that again for many years...

Having said that though - we will have some 30%-50% "corrections" as we progress along this bull market in gold...

If there are any uninitiated reading this thread...be forewarned that when the volatility picks up - you can get your throat ripped out quickly...

And if you have any sense at all...even a little bit...you will never- EVER - use margin in the PM sector...
Spot on. I might add that this is the fastest moving market I've ever seen. Volatility like never before, making it sometimes difficult to trade.
I managed to pick up some long dated call options on the bottom of the plunge, but I only picked up a handful due to how fast things were moving. Usually when markets move that fast we get a double dip before heading higher, so I held off on any major purchases. Boy was I wrong.
Prices zoomed higher and options priced exploded through the roof, making options expensive and even more risky to trade.
Anyway, still have the MAG call options I bought at the lows that are now 900% profits. Still holding for now.
 

Zed

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Yes, but I'm way too busy these days to stay on top of it. Use to be a frequent reader, but I still get the emails.
You do his $120 a year deal?
 

dpong

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Though not perfect, I like Moriarty as good as anyone. Doug Casey also.
 

dpong

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Michael Oliver is one of the best.
 

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You do his $120 a year deal?
Ha, didn't actually realize he had a paid service too. I subscribed to his email list over a decade ago. I guess it was so long ago I don't even remember whether or not he had a paid version. How time flies.
 

Strawboss

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I quit reading most people's analysis quite a while ago...

Interesting for sure - but about as accurate as the dude with the weather forecast...

Nowadays its all about what the chart says...(along with a serious effort to stay grounded/up to date on all things macro as that is ultimately what drives trends).
 

Strawboss

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Spot on. I might add that this is the fastest moving market I've ever seen. Volatility like never before, making it sometimes difficult to trade.
I managed to pick up some long dated call options on the bottom of the plunge, but I only picked up a handful due to how fast things were moving. Usually when markets move that fast we get a double dip before heading higher, so I held off on any major purchases. Boy was I wrong.
Prices zoomed higher and options priced exploded through the roof, making options expensive and even more risky to trade.
Anyway, still have the MAG call options I bought at the lows that are now 900% profits. Still holding for now.
I think the LEAPS is the best strategy for now...

You probably already know this - but on the offchance that you dont...

Never hold an option for more than 50% of the time remaining when you bought it...the reason is that the rate of decay in options is exponential as you get closer to actual expiration...or said in a way that I can make sense of...the option loses most of its value in the 2nd half of whatever amount of time you have purchased...the below chart is applicable to any timeframe...

1589974648523.png
 

savvydon

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I think the LEAPS is the best strategy for now...

You probably already know this - but on the offchance that you dont...

Never hold an option for more than 50% of the time remaining when you bought it...the reason is that the rate of decay in options is exponential as you get closer to actual expiration...or said in a way that I can make sense of...the option loses most of its value in the 2nd half of whatever amount of time you have purchased...the below chart is applicable to any timeframe...

View attachment 165895
Part of that depends on how close to in the money the options are. I had some Call SLV 14 options that expired on 5/15. About a week before they expired they hit a stop for me where I got out break even. On the 14th and 15th silver moved. If I had waited till the eleventh hour I would have made a tidy profit. 2c...
 

BackwardsEngineeer

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Part of that depends on how close to in the money the options are. I had some Call SLV 14 options that expired on 5/15. About a week before they expired they hit a stop for me where I got out break even. On the 14th and 15th silver moved. If I had waited till the eleventh hour I would have made a tidy profit. 2c...
Amen don... if your going to broad market options rather than specific company, you have to have big brass ones cause thats where the $ is..

Or is it where the inside info is... did the few know silver would move, bought your sale and made a short term killing? Back to the hamptons we go........
 

dpong

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Yes, we certainly have the breakage outage.

QAgMdSCB.png
 

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Buying gold and silver is a no brainer considering how much the US$ has already been over printed. But there is another concern to consider:

Crispin Odey says governments could ban private gold ownership

Crispin Odey, one of Europe's most prominent hedge fund managers, has said governments might ban private ownership of gold if inflation runs out of control after the Covid-19 crisis.

The price of gold has rocketed during the Covid-19 pandemic as investors have sought safety with markets crashing and economies heading into deep recession.

In a note to investors, seen by Bloomberg, Odey wrote: “It is no surprise that people are buying gold. But the authorities may attempt at some point to de-monetise gold, making it illegal to own as a private individual. They will only do this if they feel the need to create a stable unit of account for world trade.”

Odey, who is a critic of central bank policies, increased the gold position in his main Odey European fund so that June gold futures represented almost 40% of net asset value at the end of April from 15.9% at the end of March, Bloomberg said. The fund gained 21% in March but was down 9.5% in April.

The US government imposed purchases of private gold holdings in 1933 as it devalued the dollar during the Great Depression. The dollar and other major currencies are no longer pegged to the gold price, leaving less reason for such compulsory purchases.
https://www.sharecast.com/news/comm...ould-ban-private-gold-ownership--7506244.html