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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

louky

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The difference is the ability of one vs. the other to be manipulated. Not to mention the practicalities of liquidity. These types of equities are great for astute punters looking to take a few shots with a limited bankroll. But they are undeserving to be included in this thread as was intended by the OP that started this thread.
Basically you have seemingly successfully hijacked a valuable resource with your esoteric drivel.
Apple one of the most manipulated stocks for that matter via fed hedge fund bailouts and direct injections to wall street. Market participants definitely arent buying that with their unemployment check and stimulus checks.
 

dpong

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I don't like that angle of ascent. You almost know what happens next.

[Fill that gap and then slip on a bar of soap?]

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I see Druckenmiller turned bullish. He's supposedly one of the greatest traders of all time so if you didn't believe this rally off the lows don't feel too bad.
Should be close to a short but not anything to hold for long. I don't even think we see 310 on the downside. Then off to the old highs maybe slightly lower.
 

dpong

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SILJ is still walking the channel.

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Weatherman

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Coupled with yesterday's strange pm market action and today's Gold up Silver down miners eh something stinks here. Not buying.
My Wild A$$ Guess is that the banksters are selling miners short in preparation for a metals dump tomorrow when the FED announces the results of today's meeting, and the FED chair talks about it tomorrow afternoon.
 

FlaGman

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I have never had such a strong position in metals as right now. I do have about 5 years in living expenses set aside in cash, otherwise I am all in basically. I will be disappointed if metals take a big dive as the stock market climbs, but honestly I feel like I am where I want to be at this time. I am not trying to time the daily ups and downs, just trying to be where I think things are going in the next few years. If silver and gold were to go up even 50% I would do extremely well. I actually expect a smallish moonshot, with silver over $50 and gold over $4000, but as a recently retired 60 year old guy in good health I really just want to put myself in as good a financial position as I can, given that I am not bringing in that weekly paycheck like I have for the last 40 years.

I would also rather put my money down on my true instincts. Hopefully I am right, but it would be less painful for me to suffer the consequences of being wrong than for me to be on the sidelines-having been afraid to act, sitting on my little safe 80/20 money market portfolio-while metals take off like I always thought they would.
 
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BeefJerky

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I have never had such a strong position in metals as right now. I do have about 5 years in living expenses set aside in cash, otherwise I am all in basically. I will be disappointed if metals take a big dive as the stock market climbs, but honestly I feel like I am where I want to be at this time. I am not trying to time the daily ups and downs, just trying to be where I think things are going in the next few years. If silver and gold were to go up even 50% I would do extremely well. I actually expect a smallish moonshot, with silver over $50 and gold over $4000, but as a recently retired 60 year old guy in good health I really just want to put myself in as good a financial position as I can, given that I am not bringing in that weekly paycheck like I have for the last 40 years.

I would also rather put my money down on my true instincts. Hopefully I am right, but it would be less painful for me to suffer the consequences of being wrong than for me to be on the sidelines-having been afraid to act, sitting on my little safe 80/20 money market portfolio-while metals take off like I always thought they would.

Welcome to the club.....GOAT
 

Strawboss

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1.44 trillion in new fiat per year - at least...

Me thinks it will have to be bigger than that considering how much .gov is spending...
not to mention what happens if the chins and others sell their treasuries...
got gold?
 

dpong

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The channel is still the channel.

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Voodoo

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They've been getting rich lately too. A whole lot more lemmings in this next generation, and they were given free Monopoly money. A ripe environment for the less ethical.
 

Strawboss

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Clearing the COMEX Decks - Craig Hemke (June 09, 2020)

By Craig Hemke 2 days ago 34414 Views No comments
June 09, 2020
While not the only consideration in forecasting price, it's always important to note the current COMEX contract balance. As the FOMC meets again this week, let's look under the hood to see whether or not positions are at extremes versus recent history.
As you know, this has already been a strong year for COMEX Digital Gold. Price ended 2019 right at our forecast of $1520, and it has already met our 2020 forecast of $1750-1800. See more here: https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/gold-and-silver-2...
So is that it? Will price now fall through the remainder of the year? Last Friday's U.S. jobs report certainly brought many of the permabears out of hibernation, with rushed forecasts of steep price drops ahead. However, a sharp drop in COMEX prices is usually caused by a wash out of overly-exuberant speculators, many of whom had placed unusually large and aggressive positions. Taking the short side of these trades is almost always a bullion bank trading desk. Thus, when Spec positioning gets crowded long, Bank positioning is always heavily short.
To determine whether or not the COMEX trade is getting crowded and due for a "wash-and-rinse" cycle, we usually consult the CFTC and CME-issued market data. The three key items are:
• the daily COMEX contract open interest reports
• the weekly Commitment of Traders reports
• the monthly Bank Participation reports

Let's look at all three to see where we stand on a relative basis versus history and price.
First up is total open interest. After peaking at an all-time high of 799,541 contracts on January 15 of this year, total COMEX gold open interest has consistently fallen. In fact, there's even some speculation that Banks are quickly exiting this market after taking an absolutely disastrous beating on March 23 and 24: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavi...
As of Monday, total open interest has declined all the way back to just 469,893 contracts. From the January peak, that's a drop of over 41%...and this at a time of rising prices, overt QE∞, and market volatility! Perhaps The Bullion Banks really are rapidly exiting this fraudulent sham of a digital derivative market?
But for this post, it's more important to note that the total COMEX gold open interest has retreated back to levels not seen since early June of last year. And where was price back then? It was just beginning its rally that began on May 28 at $1280 and continues unabated today. Thus, from a total OI perspective, the decks have been cleared.

Now let's turn to the CFTC-generated Commitment of Traders report. If total open interest is down, then you can expect Spec positioning to be low, too. And it is. In fact, total Spec positions are also the lowest seen since early June of 2019.
On the most recent legacy CoT report, the "Large Speculators" were NET long about 219,000 COMEX gold contracts. That may sound like a lot, and it is. However, it's nowhere near the all-time high of 353,649 contracts shown on the report surveyed February 18, 2020. Additionally, a Large Spec NET position of 219,000 contracts is the smallest reported since June 18, 2019. And where was price that day? About $1345...a full $380 lower than where it is as I type.
Perhaps you like to dig into the weeds and prefer the "disaggregated" CoT report? OK, then, let's compare the "managed money" positions from that same June 18, 2019 report versus the most recent. As you can see below, this group of traders is actually holding a smaller NET position now than it was a year ago...again with prices nearly 30% higher. There's no "Spec bubble" here:

Finally, let's check the Banks' self-reported positions as shown in the latest, CFTC-generated Bank Participation Report. This monthly report alleges to summarize the positions of the 4-5 largest U.S. Banks trading on COMEX as well as the 20-25 largest non-U.S. Banks.
If you understand the COMEX, then knowing that total OI and Spec positioning is the lowest in a year should lead you to believe that Bank positioning is also relatively low...and it is. After peaking at 225,111 contracts NET short back in January, the total Bank NET position is the lowest seen since last June AND almost identical to every June since 2016. See below:
• On 6/7/16 and with price at $1247, the combined Bank position was NET short 133,296 contracts
• On 6/6/17 and with price at $1297, the combined Bank position was NET short 176,487
• On 6/5/18 and with price at $1302, the combined Bank position was NET short 132,788
• On 6/4/19 and with price at $1329, the combined Bank position was NET short 141,028
• Last Tuesday, with price at $1734, the combined Bank position was NET short 134,326

So, when prices inevitably resume their 2020 rally, you need to know that "the decks have already been cleared" in terms of Spec and Bank positioning as well as total contract open interest. As such, it's time to re-assess and adjust our price goals for 2020. Since this bull market began on May 28, 2019, price has generally moved up in $100 increments, stopping each time at the associated $80 level...meaning $1380, $1480, $1580 and so on. See for yourself:

Thus, it's reasonable to expect that once price clears $1780 later this summer, a move toward $1880 will follow, with perhaps even a peek at the old all-time highs near $1920 before another pullback and consolidation.

So, what's the purpose of this post? Price may do just about anything in the short term and in the aftermath of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday of this week. However, there is no truth to the notion that the COMEX positioning is "extreme" and "due for a washout". In fact, the opposite is true, and the potential clearly exists for another rally to new 2020 highs in the weeks ahead.
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SPY better hold 300 on a close. We got a nice island reversal up top. Might just be a breather here in the SM.
The rejections in the metals and miners don't look right. Might see a real good flush from here in the miners if we don't start to see some bottoming real soon.
 

dpong

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Ruh Roh! Tiny head and shoulder looking pattern falls out of the channel.


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Not like the Fed hasn't been pumping money into the markets here. It just ain't going into the metals or miners.

The SM selloff was long overdue. Looking for a failure around 308 or so SPY then a move into support 265-280.
 

dpong

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A friend of mine bought some SILJ and is looking to add to his position. He asked me if he should buy now. What follows is what I told him. YMMV.

Regarding SILJ below is the chart I’ve been watching of it. I drew the parallel trend channel. Was trying to buy it on a bounce off of the lower line, but I didn’t get that. So I’m in it at $12.01. The precious metals space has been in some sideways pressure for a while now. I don’t know if there will be downward pressure or just some sideways action.

When looking at charts like this I try not to predict too much. So instead of predicting what the market will do I try to think of what I will do if so-and-so happens. That’s point 1. Point 2 is that I don’t like to buy something that is going down. We call that trying to catch a falling knife. Sometimes you lose fingers. So what I usually like to do is to see a “bottom” (presumably) and then a bounce off of that bottom. That makes me happy.

SILJ has violated the channel to the downside, and with PM complex under some pressure right now, it might go down further. Again I’m gun-shy and like to see the bottom before I buy. So I would be tempted to sit back and watch where SILJ goes. As long as it is going lower I would not buy until I see what looks like a credible bottom form. The credible bottom would be due to price going lower first and then a bounce off that bottom. On the other hand (OTOH), if SILJ showed strength, and especially if it climbed back up into that channel that I drew then I would add the additional number of shares.

[I’ve spent a lot of my life the last 20 years on a precious metal trading bulletin board. Frequently the guys are arguing about and trying to guess that *this is the bottom*. It’s called bottom picking, and if you are correct you get some prestige. I gave up on that a while ago. I could care less if I bought the exact bottom. That’s for losers. I don’t want to buy the bottom, I just want to make money. Not pre-buying “the bottom” is a good way to not lose money. End Mini-Rant. ]


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