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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

dpong

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jelly

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This is worth a read. I've been following these guys for a while now, and have to say that they are pretty darn good. They have made some good calls.
https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/all-that-glitters-when-the-world-jitters-is-probably-gold/
Best quote from the article:
We believe the next 15 to 30+ days will prompt a “melt-up” in Gold to levels near $2000 to $2100. Silver will likely rally to levels above $25 to $26 over that same span of time. Once the bigger price breakout begins in Silver, attempting to normalize to the advanced price levels in Gold, Silver will begin to rally much quicker than Gold prices. We believe that will happen as Gold nears and breaches the $2000 price level.
 
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Could be possible we bottomed Spring and topped Summer. March June. 40 years to the day June 1980 Gold bottom on the way to the September 1980 secondary high. Trading CDE and SILJ they both seem to have problems holding gains during the day. Need closed over today's highs I think. Both Gold and Silver gave back a lot today. I guess we'll see but not really convinced we are ready to run unless we can close over today's highs.
 

dpong

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SILJ poked it's head out of the downtrend channel, closed back within it. But check out the volume, Lancers.

8gIeVtEH.png
 

Strawboss

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The big boys are aware that the metals and miners are in a bull market. Smart money is accumulating. Todays volume was impressive and telling...

On another note...came across this and thought it was interesting...

1592863979236.png
 

dpong

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The big boys are aware that the metals and miners are in a bull market. Smart money is accumulating. Todays volume was impressive and telling...

On another note...came across this and thought it was interesting...

View attachment 170108
They don't call it The Everything Bubble for nothing, eh?
 

Goldhedge

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"There is no rush like a gold rush…and miners will likely dwarf the moves in physical!" Bill Holter
 

oldgaranddad

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"There is no rush like a gold rush…and miners will likely dwarf the moves in physical!" Bill Holter
Zero Hedge has an article about China buying up the miners
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/chinese-gold-miners-continue-gobble-gold-companies

Problem for China is that they are sinking money in places that will nationalize their mines when their economies go down. Buying politicians may not help them when governments get tossed aside in those areas as they usually do.

Most places are a logistical nightmare to supply from China if they even think they’re going to send their army in to reclaim the mines. Their only other option in Columbia is have FARC do their bidding but then kiss those mines goodbye since FARC will never give them up.

Though, that seems to be one lesson China never learns, that their lapdogs always turn on them at the worst time and become resource leeches. Just look at the NorKs and the Vietnamese.
 

dpong

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SILJ: A higher low back inside the downtrending channel is a buy. Anticipating that.
 
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I see all that stuff on Twitter. Everybody getting all bulled up. Common sense would tell you the metals and miners will be higher over the long term and I am playing it that way but I would like to see a little more strength from the miners. I know a lot of the penny stocks have run a lot but I ain't interested in that space.
While it might be different this time around and the big money might flow into this space in the coming years I'm not so sure. Heard the same thing the last time around.
Little CDE ran from around 2 to 16 in 2016 on a move in Silver from c. 13.65 to 21 and change in a matter of months. Currently this stock is stuck in the 4-6 range. Need to see some moves that stick.
 

dpong

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SILJ is stuck to the top of the channel like fly-paper. Sure it's going lower, but it doesn't want to. Also, volume is healthy. Still looking for a higher low within the channel. The bounce off that is a buy, imho. I'm guessing of course.

MDiw2koz.png
 

Varmint Hunter

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Uglytruth

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I have thought for years now that they are all around ZERO they can reset to some global currency or something...........
 

dpong

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Gary Savage says the intermediate cycle is getting a little long in the tooth.

 

Varmint Hunter

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Great & detailed explanation of the dow to gold ratio & the future:
 
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No Ted Butler articles to post? Big up or down this week. I wonder what effect a cratering stock market would have on miners? Tested lower Friday and crept higher into the close. SILJ under 10.70 and CDE under 4.30 indicates to me that this upleg is over and we see further weakness.
 

dpong

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SILJ. To make a lower low we have to trade below about 10.25. To make a higher high we have to trade above either 11.59 or 12.14 depending on how you see this chart. We are certainly at an awkward moment that makes it difficult for anybody to get it right. Markets, eh?

[Look at those downward pointing wicks, L]

5jdfedMU.png
 
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dpong

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SILJ. In 2016 we needed a bear trap to clear everyone's mind.

chart-7.png
 

Strawboss

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Strawboss

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With the CBs doing what they are doing - I am not convinced that ANY historical "signal" will be reliable. In fact - I think we are entering an era where ALL assets rise in "value"...stocks/bonds/gold/real estate/art, etc...

I think the trick will be to figure out WHICH asset class will outperform the others...

A rising tide lifts all boats...