• "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding metals, finance, politics, government and many other topics"

The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

GOLDBRIX

'SUSH, MY NEW SAFE HOUSE"
Midas Member
Midas Supporter ++
Joined
Apr 4, 2010
Messages
18,938
Reaction score
29,193
If ya gonna play with gold GET the Physical Gold.
I'm buying physical every chance the wallet lets me.
I'd rather have the physical PMs than wanting the physical PMs. YMMV
 

GOLDBRIX

'SUSH, MY NEW SAFE HOUSE"
Midas Member
Midas Supporter ++
Joined
Apr 4, 2010
Messages
18,938
Reaction score
29,193

Zed

Back to the Future!
Midas Member
Sr Site Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
20,590
Reaction score
23,362
Location
Eying off the bunker.
The US Treasury has basically withdrawn 1.2 Trillion USD of the Fed's mega $ dump in what amounts to a sterilization exercise and is holding it on account. Whatever is withdrawn by the treasury is effectively withdrawn from the system. The Treasury is sitting on a 1.2 Trillion USD war chest and nobody can/will say why. The only assumption we can make is that it will be used to support markets into the election if (when) needed. Given that sort of fire power sitting in the background it is hard not to be bullish risk assets on any major dip. Gold would appear to win all ways going into this scenario. If this ends up extremely deflationary or inflationary it would seem that the only thing that the smart folk, that I've been listening to, agree on is that gold is one of the big winner. Martin Armstrong say's gold and the stock market rallying together is signalling loss of faith in government. This is what we appear to be setup for.

While on the subject of Armstrong's thoughts... he is still openly discussing the idea that CV19 is being used by a group of very powerful people as a way of deeply damaging the global economy and forcing an economic reset that they are pushing to be "the green new deal". They have fundamentally swallowed the C02 climate scare and want to force change as they think it needs to happen. Read "Green Totalitarianism", all for our own good "off course"!

As apart of this process they appear to need/want Trump gone.

My speculation is that the idea is to force a market crash into the election period and this is what the 1.2T sitting @ the Treasury is all about. Trump & Co know that this is coming and the 1.2T is the war chest to fight it.

The second half of 2020 is looks to have the raw ingredients for an epic show down.

BTW my bet is that Biden is gone by election time, even the media are now calling him the presumptive candidate. Given that you have to think that Old Hills will pop up in his place toward the end, perhaps playing the Super Hero to rescue the USA card.

Pure speculation on my part but IMHO it looks like something big is going down this year... or maybe I've been drinking too much again!

Be careful this next few months.

See you in a while.
 

Zed

Back to the Future!
Midas Member
Sr Site Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
20,590
Reaction score
23,362
Location
Eying off the bunker.
download (1).png
 

Uglytruth

Midas Member
Midas Member
Sr Site Supporter
Joined
Apr 6, 2011
Messages
15,749
Reaction score
34,939
YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Zed's back!:2 thumbs up::oriental::dancing guy

Next time you get enter5ed into the hall of shame you can't just run away with the huge check & party for a month or two.......
Let alone at a time like this!
 

Lancers32

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
3,042
Reaction score
4,226
Location
NC
Armstrong. I actually went for his $15 a month paid service for a couple of months to read the private blog stuff and I gotta say I have less respect in his or his computer model to forecast than I ever did before.

Dow would go no lower than 21-22 thousand went to 18. Bear market rally Naz new highs daily SP and Dow 30 knocking. Thinking about devising a new index to catch swings. Now thinks instead of a low in this time period we get a high. Cycle inversion. Anyone following him lost out on the greatest quarter in history or damn close.

As for the metals don't bother.

Be your own guru.
 

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
3,195
Reaction score
3,797
Weekend Trend Trader: 100% long and strong.
 

Voodoo

Midas Member
Midas Member
Platinum Bling
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
4,887
Reaction score
7,678
Location
Deep Underground Bunker
Armstrong. I actually went for his $15 a month paid service for a couple of months to read the private blog stuff and I gotta say I have less respect in his or his computer model to forecast than I ever did before.

Dow would go no lower than 21-22 thousand went to 18. Bear market rally Naz new highs daily SP and Dow 30 knocking. Thinking about devising a new index to catch swings. Now thinks instead of a low in this time period we get a high. Cycle inversion. Anyone following him lost out on the greatest quarter in history or damn close.

As for the metals don't bother.

Be your own guru.

Lots of manipulation going on here. The very fact that they used his model to announce this virus and told people to sell their stuff tells you that much. I've long thought they are using his numbers. He would post a Dow has to close above Blank to show strength and they would gun it to just above the number in no time. The cycle inversion thing is valid but it's happening way too often to really make sense of the model.
 

GOLDBRIX

'SUSH, MY NEW SAFE HOUSE"
Midas Member
Midas Supporter ++
Joined
Apr 4, 2010
Messages
18,938
Reaction score
29,193

GOLDBRIX

'SUSH, MY NEW SAFE HOUSE"
Midas Member
Midas Supporter ++
Joined
Apr 4, 2010
Messages
18,938
Reaction score
29,193

Voodoo

Midas Member
Midas Member
Platinum Bling
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
4,887
Reaction score
7,678
Location
Deep Underground Bunker

Lancers32

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
3,042
Reaction score
4,226
Location
NC
Lots of manipulation going on here. The very fact that they used his model to announce this virus and told people to sell their stuff tells you that much. I've long thought they are using his numbers. He would post a Dow has to close above Blank to show strength and they would gun it to just above the number in no time. The cycle inversion thing is valid but it's happening way too often to really make sense of the model.

They did not use his model to go long in March though. So when do we see the slingshot if making highs around here became so bearish? Too obtuse to follow.
 

nowon

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
2,677
Reaction score
8,595
Location
Now-here
Production can respond to the prices and I think that chart shows you some of that response. I'd really love to see a total Proven and Probable Reserves chart from the same time frame.

Higher prices combined with lower fuel costs also make some previously uneconomic resources move into the proven category. There are a lot of shut-in mines coming back into operation.
 

Strawboss

Apocaloptimist
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
8,829
Reaction score
18,055

Varmint Hunter

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Sr Midas Supporter +++
Joined
Apr 10, 2010
Messages
2,746
Reaction score
10,331
Hemke on why silver is lagging:
 
Last edited:

perry

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Oct 16, 2010
Messages
541
Reaction score
375
Some of the smaller stocks are moving. I guess they think Sprott is gonna buy then all. :bomb:
Sprott is making a killing in the markets. I wonder what's his net worth. He's all over the map doing cash infusions or investing in commodities.
 

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
3,195
Reaction score
3,797
SILJ to open considerably higher, if nothing changes in next 15 minutes. [I meant 45 minutes, duh!]

[Currently making higher highs and higher lows. AKA, walking up the stairs.]

[I have just updated the chart @ 10:52 AM]

ZwUgHpMb.png
 
Last edited:

jelly

Silver Miner
Seeker
Joined
Dec 6, 2010
Messages
1,281
Reaction score
1,485
Scratching down some thoughts on silver. I'm no Elliot Waver, but it looks like we are starting a "wave 5" in Elliot Waves. Rough target $21.50?
Just some thoughts, someone who actually knows elliot wave could give a better idea on what's actually going on.

silver.png
 

Strawboss

Apocaloptimist
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
8,829
Reaction score
18,055
Gold now resting above 1800 and silver still well below 20, big question here is how much of a bargain is silver right now. I began my venture into the PM's when silver was ~22 and gold was 1400+, IIRC.
If the GSR ratio declines to 70...which would still be a historically high number - silver would be close to 30 with gold about 10% higher from here.

Now that COMEX has become a physical clearinghouse - keeping silver suppressed becomes a losing game. Taking physical delivery is becoming the new game in town...
 

jelly

Silver Miner
Seeker
Joined
Dec 6, 2010
Messages
1,281
Reaction score
1,485
Don't forget - physical silver premiums are still extraordinarily high right now. This is usually a good gauge of where we are in the cycle. Silver isn't going to hit a medium term top until physical premiums get down to where they normally are. As long as premiums remain high, the trend is higher.
This is a simple view, but it works simply because it highlights the real demand for the metal.
 

Lancers32

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
3,042
Reaction score
4,226
Location
NC
Put it this way. We are far from the lows. I can remember buying Engelhard 10 oz bars when Silver was trading sub 10 for pretty close to spot.

Not saying we don't have a long ways to go yet but I wouldn't use that as a timing mechanism.
 

Lancers32

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
3,042
Reaction score
4,226
Location
NC
Kinda high.
 

Attachments

  • Bull Bear.png
    Bull Bear.png
    66 KB · Views: 43

Zed

Back to the Future!
Midas Member
Sr Site Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
20,590
Reaction score
23,362
Location
Eying off the bunker.
The Great Reset & Election 2020

I'm more concerned with Treasury inexplicably sitting on 1.2T in liquid assets more than anything else. Things are not normal here, they are expecting a 1.2T sized problem. A plausible explanation would be a good thing, Armstrong's exposure to the worlds wealthy and his ideas help to put a frame around one possible reason for the growing cash stash @ Treasury. Come up with a better idea and I am all ears, the brightest financial minds that I have access to are all scratching their heads. They won't go where I will, they are not that adventurous and that leaves them with a fat zero on the explanation side. At least nothing they will put on record other than the fact that this is 'highly irregular'.

IMO it appears that "the great reset" is a real agenda with some considerable sponsorship.

Comex Delivery & Soft Default Potential

April Comex Gold deliveries were big, May was huge for an off delivery month, June was off the charts, July has slowed back a bit but still not to shabby for the dog days of summer. Now we have the very real possibility that the delivery trend into August grows by a similar % that it grew from April to June, about +71%. +70% from July implies that we MIGHT see as high as the mid 90K contracts standing for delivery. If we have ever seen a month that offers real potential for a "contract modification" (aka soft default, cash settle etc) it is August. Given that the Internutz noise level re "Comex default", check the forum if you need to, is comparatively low. Those of you who were here through the last "Comex Default" Internutz frenzy will remember just how loud it got. I remember being flamed for saying it will not happen simply because too many people expect it. Now here we are with a very real tidal wave of delivery demands bolstered with some quite strong evidence that the make up and intent of the long side of the gold contract has changed and .... "crickets" are the loudest thing coming from the old default crew. Yup sure there is the odd mention, but they are the ones that are never very far way from the subject on a normal day. The crowds are quiet.

Not a prediction, just an observation that the odds of a Comex 'event' are higher than I have ever seen in my trading career.

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Comex Default
 

Attachments

  • A Potential Crisis In Comex Gold.pdf
    322.8 KB · Views: 25
Last edited:

Strawboss

Apocaloptimist
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
8,829
Reaction score
18,055
I have been burned a few times trying to short this POS...but man is it tempting to not take another shot at it at the right time....

1594255321272.png
 

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
3,195
Reaction score
3,797

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
3,195
Reaction score
3,797
Or watch this very slick propaganda video. These people are professionals.

 

Strawboss

Apocaloptimist
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
8,829
Reaction score
18,055
We are getting close to a technical breakdown in the GSR...
94 will cement in 102 on the high side as a reversal...and 92 will confirm the breakdown from the previous low...
1594296649452.png


Notice that yesterday - the low was 94.14...(close but no cigar...)

1594296719567.png

1594296782438.png