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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

dpong

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SILJ. ... We are certainly at an awkward moment that makes it difficult for anybody to get it right. Markets, eh?
Steve Saville in his weekend update said recent price action in the miners has been "inscrutable." Yeah, that's about right.
 

Strawboss

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Considering the recent volatility in almost every asset class recently - it would make sense to think that the miners are due for a big drop...

I dont think so - and here is why I think that...

They would have already. We have essentially been going sideways since May.

Instead what I think is happening is that those that did well buying near the bottom are selling - but there is a larger amount of buying interest than in years past- so that selling is being absorbed - resulting in a fairly tame sideways move while overbought conditions continue to be bled off...

On a chart - it manifests itself as a bull flag and is more indicative of a 1/2way point in a larger move.

Not to mention we are about to have the end of 2nd quarter - and there are many, many fund managers out there that want to be able to say they have a position in one of the leading asset classes of 2020 thus far. Can you imagine having to explain - as a fund manager - why you have no exposure to the best performing asset class? They arent gonna have a choice...especially in this upcoming quarter...

And then there is the interesting fact that significantly more contracts are standing for delivery on the COMEX. Throw in the QE to infinity, plandemic, multi-trillion dollar bailouts, depression level unemployment, civil unrest, etc...

I just dont see how in this environment where a significant decline in the miners is gonna happen. We would need to move up much further before we are in overbought territory...
 
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Steve Saville in his weekend update said recent price action in the miners has been "inscrutable." Yeah, that's about right.
I think we are about to see some action in the miners. Gold and Silver have been banging on the tops now. We had that little shakeout. Should be ready to run. Trying really hard not to overthink this now. Picked up more CDE pre.
 

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Goldhedge

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Chesapeake Files For Bankruptcy, Wiping Out $7 Billion In Debt And Any Existing Equity Value
After years of melting, the Chesapeake icecube is finally history: at exactly 350pm on Sunday afternoon, the company that launched the US shale boom, finally gave up and filed for a pre-packaged bankruptcy in the Southern District of Texas. In so doing, the company with roughly $9.5 billion in debt has become one of the biggest victims of a spectacular collapse in energy demand from the virus-induced global recession, and follows the collapse of another high-flyer in the US oil patch, Whiting Petroleum, which filed for Chapter 11 at the start of April after championing what was once the premiere U.S. shale field, the Bakken of North Dakota.

 

jelly

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I don't like the hesitancy in gold & the miners yesterday.
In my mind, this is "do or die" time. Gold SHOULD be breaking out here. If it doesn't, I would expect another 3 month correction.
Today is the end of the quarter, so I can understand them wanting to keep a lid on gold temporarily. If gold doesn't bust a move by the end of this week, I think it's done for.
 

dpong

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Did Powell say something interesting? Not sure when he speaks today.
 

dpong

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SILJ made a higher low and a higher high. Appears to now be walking up the stairs. Buy the next higher low?

Wap5NzWS.png
 

dpong

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Gold: Highest Quarterly Close Ever. (Unless after hours screws it up.)

N84v7tdB.png
 

dpong

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Silvercorp Metals (SVM) showed up on my Weekend Trend Trader stock scanner today. If it continues to qualify by Friday's close, it will be a buy on Monday.
 

dpong

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Gary Savage is very cautious on gold.

 

dpong

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dpong

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SILJ. This last support line is highly tentative. (So far, so good.)

aqntaMSq.png
 
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That is pretty impressive. Perhaps I should be buying up junk electronics. I have quite a pile started here in my office. Thanks.
If you have military grade electronics from 1960s that have gold on them, they may be more valuable. I saw a gold "missile" card sold on ebay for $300.00, possibly from a nuclear sub.
 

dpong

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SILJ is still walking the line. Surprisingly resilient.

OFQPocq2.png
 

dpong

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Upward pointing wicks in my miners today.
 

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WHAT POWELL AND LAGARDE TOLD THE G7?
July 2, 2020

by Egon von Greyerz

Here is a joint statement from Lagarde and Powell at a secret G7 meeting with all Leaders and Finance Chiefs of the seven nations attending as well as the IMF and BIS:

“The financial system has been on the verge of collapse since September 2019 when we started Repos and QE. And since then it has only got worse. The coronavirus hit us at a time when the banking system was almost down and out.​
We had enough problems saving the banks. But now we must save big corporations, small companies, individuals, local municipalities and states, the Federal State and this on top of rescuing a financial system which is deteriorating by the day. The whole system is leaking like a sieve and we are struggling to keep it all afloat.​
Fortunately we have printing presses and that helps to keep it all going but only just. Our big fear is that the market will realise that all the money we are printing is worthless. And it is of course but we can’t tell anyone. But if the world wakes up to this one day soon, the financial system could implode in a matter of days. And we would be totally helpless to stop it………”​
 

Varmint Hunter

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WHAT POWELL AND LAGARDE TOLD THE G7?
July 2, 2020

by Egon von Greyerz

Here is a joint statement from Lagarde and Powell at a secret G7 meeting with all Leaders and Finance Chiefs of the seven nations attending as well as the IMF and BIS:

“The financial system has been on the verge of collapse since September 2019 when we started Repos and QE. And since then it has only got worse. The coronavirus hit us at a time when the banking system was almost down and out.​
We had enough problems saving the banks. But now we must save big corporations, small companies, individuals, local municipalities and states, the Federal State and this on top of rescuing a financial system which is deteriorating by the day. The whole system is leaking like a sieve and we are struggling to keep it all afloat.​
Fortunately we have printing presses and that helps to keep it all going but only just. Our big fear is that the market will realise that all the money we are printing is worthless. And it is of course but we can’t tell anyone. But if the world wakes up to this one day soon, the financial system could implode in a matter of days. And we would be totally helpless to stop it………”​
This is not fact as Egon states in the last section of his article.
https://goldswitzerland.com/what-powell-and-lagarde-told-the-g7/
Check the red PS at the end.
 
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Minor inflection point here. IF you are a long term bull and don't care if you suffer a large drawdown I guess holding is fine. I think we get better buying opportunities in a while. Too many bulls crowing about the major outsized gains in juniors. Might see a bit higher first but I can see major pain coming. Not like its a surprise the Fed is printing out of control.