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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

savvydon

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I'm debating with myself wether or not we get a short term pullback here, or if we're heading straight to $1935 gold and $45 GDX.
I think we will have an answer as we swing into London and the Comex later this morning.
 

savvydon

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The next visible price catalyst is the fomc meeting next week on the 29th, just saying fwiw
Yes, but there are some very important invisible catalysts, such as the number of contracts that will stand for delivery, and the short position of the bullion banks and how much today's move will squeeze them.
 

Zed

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I'm debating with myself wether or not we get a short term pullback here, or if we're heading straight to $1935 gold and $45 GDX.

Hmmmm... given the DXY looks like it has a little more downside I'd hazard a guess that we might tag the old high before the pull back. Gold stocks might be done now though, the ASX gold tribe are not that enthusiastic about the move so far today... losing steam.
 
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Zed

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savvydon

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Meanwhile back at the ranch silver spot just jumped over $23 as we head into the Comex open. The dollar is down and taking on a 94 handle... GSR threatening to break below 80.

Whole lotta shaking' goin' on
 

jelly

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Hmmmm... given the DXY looks like it has a little more downside I'd hazard a guess that we might tag the old high before the pull back. Gold stocks might be done now though, the ASX gold tribe are not that enthusiastic about the move so far today... losing steam.
I noticed something similar in miners yesterday. Gold up 1.46% and miners (GDX) up 1.31%. Typically this lackluster performance is what we see at the final stage of a move, before a correction. When the miners stop following the metals, that's normally a sign of correction coming. GDX should have had close to a 5% gain on a 1.3% move in gold. If we get the same story today, my guess is we are close to a correction.
 
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Voodoo

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Well it was bound to happen but the last few days have attracted Portnoy and the day traders. He's on NAK today, Northern Dynasty Minerals.
 

Goldhedge

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jelly

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Sold many of my positions, but still have a large position. I don't feel comfortable holding positions with the markets moving as fast as they are. I feel like I'm holding a bomb in my hands.
What goes up fast, goes down even faster.

Regardless, if silver can keep the gains overnight, I think we have a little more upside left before we get a correction.
 

dpong

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Behold AG, this weeks TSLA.

2fXgHobU.png
 

dpong

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Sold many of my positions, but still have a large position. I don't feel comfortable holding positions with the markets moving as fast as they are. I feel like I'm holding a bomb in my hands.
What goes up fast, goes down even faster.

Regardless, if silver can keep the gains overnight, I think we have a little more upside left before we get a correction.
Did you ever consider using stop losses, either mental stops or stop orders? Anyway that's how I like to do.

[I try to ride it higher.]

[The reason I mention it is because I used to have that same hair-on-fire feeling that you described.]
 
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savvydon

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Did you ever consider using stop losses, either mental stops or stop orders? Anyway that's how I like to do.

[I try to ride it higher.]
I did really well this week with some SLV LEAPS I was holding. I rode it up with stop losses and eventually got stopped out of just enough options to pay for the cost of all of them. I am now holding the rest free and clear. If we continue parabolic on towards 26 this week I may sell the rest. Eventually a move that extends so far so fast should retrace somewhat. If we don't go any further this week I'll just hold. Plenty of time left.
 

Au-myn

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Well it was bound to happen but the last few days have attracted Portnoy and the day traders. He's on NAK today, Northern Dynasty Minerals.
I was on NAK back in March when it bottomed at 36 cents. Started accumulating shares the past four months and stopped last week.

Built up a nice block dirt cheap. Waiting on the FEIS Friday and then the ROD 30-45 days later. :blew up:
 

dpong

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Yes! So the miners are even starting to show up on my Weekend Trend Trader stock scanner.

[They will be getting increasingly more attention moving forward. The breakouts and technicals will bring THE OTHERS.]

Window_and_Scan_Results___StockCharts_com-12.jpg
 

dpong

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I was on NAK back in March when it bottomed at 36 cents. Started accumulating shares the past four months and stopped last week.
:blew up:
CONGRATULATIONS, Chief!!
 

Zed

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Well it was bound to happen but the last few days have attracted Portnoy and the day traders. He's on NAK today, Northern Dynasty Minerals.
I find myself wondering... Could this get really silly if all the kids get involved?
 

Zed

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Did you ever consider using stop losses, either mental stops or stop orders? Anyway that's how I like to do.

[I try to ride it higher.]

[The reason I mention it is because I used to have that same hair-on-fire feeling that you described.]
Trailing stops. Nick should have something to say about that, it was always a hotly debated subject back when... :popcorn:
 

dpong

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Trailing stops. Nick should have something to say about that, it was always a hotly debated subject back when... :popcorn:
Why sell your winners (that feel too hot to handle) and keep your losers (the ones you feel are sane) when what you should be doing is sell your losers and let your winners run.

For trend following, trailing stops are essential. IMHO calling tops and bottoms is a suckers game (unless you are extraordinarily good at it, I'm not).

So why shoot your babies while they still may be in their cradle? Watch them grow and keep a trailing stop. The stop loss will tell you when to sell.

Here is my current distribution of trades histogram. The 2 rightmost positions are still alive. I won't sell them until they surrender.

[This method also does a great deal of psychological good to my trading. No more hair-on-fire. Worked for me. I recognize that emotion because I used to live it. Everything said is in spirit of trying to help, only.]

[This histogram is built almost exclusively by selling losers and letting winners ride. It shall improve over time.]

Dist_Trades_20200722png.png
 
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dpong

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Over time, if practiced relentlessly, it should begin to look more like this:


XP_Outcomes.png
 

JayDubya

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I find myself wondering... Could this get really silly if all the kids get involved?
I do not have a premium subscription so I cant access the article, but saw this headline on Seeking Alpha...

A silver miner towers above the sector as Robinhood traders front run the silver ETF SLV
 

Zed

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Why sell your winners (that feel too hot to handle) and keep your losers (the ones you feel are sane) when what you should be doing is sell your losers and let your winners run.

For trend following, trailing stops are essential. IMHO calling tops and bottoms is a suckers game (unless you are extraordinarily good at it, I'm not).

So why shoot your babies while they still may be in their cradle? Watch them grow and keep a trailing stop. The stop loss will tell you when to sell.

Here is my current distribution of trades histogram. The 2 rightmost positions are still alive. I won't sell them until they surrender.

[This method also does a great deal of psychological good to my trading. No more hair-on-fire. Worked for me. I recognize that emotion because I used to live it. Everything said is in spirit of trying to help, only.]

[This histogram is built almost exclusively by selling losers and letting winners ride. It shall improve over time.]

View attachment 173558
Yes, exactly. Let winner's run.
 

Zed

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Zed

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I do not have a premium subscription so I cant access the article, but saw this headline on Seeking Alpha...

A silver miner towers above the sector as Robinhood traders front run the silver ETF SLV
It's small step for the young USD hating crypto crowd!
 

Strawboss

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I find myself wondering... Could this get really silly if all the kids get involved?
Why yes it could...

And it will...

Only a matter of time...
 

Voodoo

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It's small step for the young USD hating crypto crowd!
Well whatever they are buying we know that Citadel is buying it first and front running them. The more the merrier.
 

Zed

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The gold top callers are moving in...

The more of them we see the higher the probability of a runaway breakout --> 2c FWIW.
 

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Zed

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Well whatever they are buying we know that Citadel is buying it first and front running them. The more the merrier.
Kids chasing bubbles... never grows old.

 

Zed

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ASX Gold tribe have gone from +1% to -1% so far today... soft, soft, soft.