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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Zed

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Thing this move may take us into the area of $26 resistance.
Yep... and in the next ten minutes!

She seems to have woken up and sat bolt up right, normally that means she is set on going somewhere!

 

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Note that BTC is also challenging its 10K resistance area.
 
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Zed

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513 pages.

20,481 posts.

714,336 views!

I wonder when they will make the mini series?

That's a metric shit ton of hot air, I think that maybe we are causing global warming, errr, cooling, errr, climate chaos!

 

Zed

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Remember folks that typically jubilation @ this level normally brings retribution!

Don't be surprised if a serious effort is made to end the party soon.

Perhaps a handle for our cup?

 

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Zed

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Been tryin to wake @axstone up... apparently he still has the hump.
 

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Zed

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Good Night kids... don't get too hammered before morning!

Have you seen Silver, she is on a rampage again! We might never be welcome back to the Comex @ this rate!

 

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So far it's "The Night They Drove ole DXY down!"

jzhO9R7D.png
 
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Strawboss

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Don't forget, FOMC meeting this week. I wouldn't expect this rally to continue past Wed.
The Fed is gonna announce curve control - but probably not at this meeting...more likely at Sept. meeting...

Might get either a relatively modest correction or consolidation over the next month or so...
On the other hand - usually when there is a break to new all time highs - it typically pushes higher - especially after a successful backtest of the breakout...which doesnt always happen...(the backtest I mean)...
 

dpong

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Just yank the margin requirements higher. Problem solved. [Maybe?]
 
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Raised last week from 8 to 9 I believe. Regardless of margin Silver wants a number in the short term before reversing 25 or a little higher. We will see.
 

dpong

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I've heard 27 mentioned.
 

dpong

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Interesting chart here, maybe.

The upper chart is the price of gold. The lower chart is the momentum chart of Monthly Gold vs. SPX charted against the 36 month moving average. In the lower chart the 36 month moving average is represented by the zero line. I have circled each instance where the Gold/SPX chart had been below the 36 month MA and closed the month *above* the average. I tried to circle the price of gold chart in the same locations.

This happened in 2001, 2005, and 2020. [Actually it looks like 2019.] In 2016 it threatened to close above the zero line but did not.

Look at the performance of gold (long term, even) after the Gold/SPX relative performance chart moved above the zero line. Where are we now? Is 2020 the new 2001 or 2005? It could be. Maybe.

[Gold is expected to outperform the SPX going forward.]

HEOvA1NZ-1.png
 
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dpong

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dpong

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Here's the original chart showing Gold/SPX monthly with the 36 month moving average. Same momentum chart below.

yDdpGSmC.png
 

dpong

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25
 

dpong

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27 is as good a guess as any. Beginning to wonder if they want to do any more than just test the breakout around $21.25. Bull markets can remain overbought for longer than you would think. Actually a show of strength middle of the move. Dow went up from 770 to 1296 in just 4 months in 1982. Anyway this guy was stunningly wrong. Would not read guys like this ever.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-golds-new-all-time-high-will-have-to-wait-2020-07-14
 
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so close, $34.50 to 2,000 usd gold in extended hours

$1980 is an EW target and that big fat round number is up above. These futures jockeys backed by the banks ain't afraid to sell $2000. You can't sell that number the first time up you don't have the gonads to trade. :robber:
 

Zed

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Here's the original chart showing Gold/SPX monthly with the 36 month moving average. Same momentum chart below.

View attachment 174217
That's not a bad baseline indicator i.e. When to trade aggressively v cautiously or long v short bias. One of those indicators you use to answer the first question "What environment are we trading?"
 

Zed

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27 before the pause. I'm guessing.
I have the strong resistance kicking in @ 28 odd on the monthly chart but it gets congested from say 26 up the way I look at it.
 

Zed

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The bullion banks are NOT going to want to see a monthly close up here! .... but if first notice this Friday is BIG we may be in one of those rare period where what the bullion banks want to see doesn't matter so much.