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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Zed

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+++ the DXY looks to be close to a bounce. Initially that should slow gold until they sync up again.
 

Zed

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The ASX Gold Tribe are in the ~+2% range so far today. Not overly excited but not selling off... yet. 4:30hrs left to trade today.
 

Zed

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SI July delivery = 16239 contracts to date. Waiting on OI numbers.
 

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jelly

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I gotta say, I have no idea what to think about this market. The move in silver has become pure parabolic, which normally means we are due for an intense correction. Yet, physical premiums have not eased up, which is the opposite of what I'd expect at a market top.

Only thing worth noting is that many dealers have put their 'secondary market' silver up for "pre-sale." I have never seen secondary silver go up for "pre-sale" before. This should be a big red flag. This tells me they think silver is just a hot potato, and want to get it out the door before it comes in. Meaning: they don't want to be a bag-holder.

I'm bearish. I don't know where this tops out, but I don't see the correction being easy.
 
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Zed

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This was our first argument. You were probably right back then. ;)
It has to be a red flag...no? The only question is how far to we get?

It is possible that it is a runaway breakout but how rare is that in gold? That said, if we have ever had the ingredients for a runaway breakout it is now more than ever before.
 

Zed

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I'm bearish. I don't know where this tops out, but I don't see the correction being easy.
If we correct it should be 4-5 months worth.
 

Zed

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With the current premium on silver eagles, I'm seriously considering selling out of some of mine. Never seen this before.
 

Zed

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With the current premium on silver eagles, I'm seriously considering selling out of some of mine. Never seen this before.
Buy some Puts on SLV and maybe sell some Calls... Don't give up the metal but buy some insurance.
 

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Cigarlover

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Call me crazy (Many of you already do :) ), but this action is seriously bullish. Gold making new highs. Does a move like that typically stall? Seems to me that is the perfect time to buy. I see 2600 in gold before a pause and then onto 5k. Thats by years end.
Silver is powering up and firing on all cylinders right now. 50 by end of Aug is possible and if silver powers through 50 and onto new highs then 100 by years end is possible.
 

savvydon

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I gotta say, I have no idea what to think about this market. The move in silver has become pure parabolic, which normally means we are due for an intense correction. Yet, physical premiums have not eased up, which is the opposite of what I'd expect at a market top.

Only thing worth noting is that many dealers have put their 'secondary market' silver up for "pre-sale." I have never seen secondary silver go up for "pre-sale" before. This should be a big red flag. This tells me they think silver is just a hot potato, and want to get it out the door before it comes in. Meaning: they don't want to be a bag-holder.

I'm bearish. I don't know where this tops out, but I don't see the correction being easy.
Even dealers are still paying crazy premiums. $5 and $6 bucks wholesale per coin for monster boxes of Eagles. There doesn't seem to be much available on the supply side. This is the single most important factor, imo, that makes it tough to know where this parabolic rally ends.
 
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Call me crazy (Many of you already do :) ), but this action is seriously bullish. Gold making new highs. Does a move like that typically stall? Seems to me that is the perfect time to buy. I see 2600 in gold before a pause and then onto 5k. Thats by years end.
Silver is powering up and firing on all cylinders right now. 50 by end of Aug is possible and if silver powers through 50 and onto new highs then 100 by years end is possible.
You skipped right to the last chapter.
 

savvydon

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With the current premium on silver eagles, I'm seriously considering selling out of some of mine. Never seen this before.
I sold some today. Trying to pay off my new pickup truck...

Premiums for silver Eagles are so high right now that the actual ratio between silver and gold eagles is 65:1, not the current spot calculated 75:1.
 

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Even dealers are still paying crazy premiums. $5 and $6 bucks wholesale per coin for monster boxes of Eagles. There doesn't seem to be much available on the supply side. This is the single most important factor, imo, that makes it tough to know where this parabolic rally ends.
I don't see eagles as being the true measure of physical prumiums right now. The reason eagles are so freaking high is due to production issues at the mint. I keep an eye on generic 1, 10, and 100 oz bars as a measure of real premiums.
 

savvydon

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I don't see eagles as being the true measure of physical prumiums right now. The reason eagles are so freaking high is due to production issues at the mint. I keep an eye on generic 1, 10, and 100 oz bars as a measure of real premiums.
Many dealers sell eagles to customers as part of IRAs, so they remain a big, important part of the market.

Even generic bullion is still getting $1-2 over spot wholesale.

Hell, even 1000oz Comex bars are selling for 50c-$1 over spot.
 

Cigarlover

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It has to be a red flag...no? The only question is how far to we get?

It is possible that it is a runaway breakout but how rare is that in gold? That said, if we have ever had the ingredients for a runaway breakout it is now more than ever before.
This really has been the only question i have wondered about since 9/11/2001. If the thesis for owning gold was always central bank foolishness in the midst of political and economic crisis, how could you really tell "this was it." If I recall correctly Sinclair read the balance sheets in 2011 and declared "it" really just based on math. Reality has now caught up to some extent and can anyone even believe that there is any credibility whatsoever in the math, data or reporting of any of our institutions? Does a contract still mean something or anything today? There are effectively no controls on govt spending and accounting anymore.

Aside from the threat of govt price controls and properly controlled risk + technicals, on what basis could I justify going short that does not assume that past behaviour is indicative of future behaviour?

I am likely wrong on a long enough time line ( 5 mins to 5 years) but is this market not exactly what you would expect in "uncharted territory? "
 

Zed

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I am likely wrong on a long enough time line ( 5 mins to 5 years) but is this market not exactly what you would expect in "uncharted territory? "
Possibly... but typically things get off the leash toward the end. I don't see we are there yet so using some puts on SLV, or what have you, can soften the pain of a correction.

IMO it would be healthy to take a breather here, even if it is sideways for a time, too much, too fast is rarely good.

That said this has the raw ingredients of a squeeze! Which would be fun while it lasts but the hangover could be a doozy.
 

Zed

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Gold making new highs. Does a move like that typically stall?
Sometimes you have to fight for them, so we could pop to 2K then pull back to 1920 and only when it becomes support do you move on. That is like a 2 month pull back (more of a consolidation) theme. Also a real option here.

I think the the USD will rally and suck the air out of the room for a short while.
 

Zed

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I'm hearing big dealers whispering about product delays out into October.
Well at least no one is posting beach balls or rockets!
 

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This is what I think of lately.... think 'Silver' instead of 'Space'

 

Zed

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*pop*
The rug just got pulled from under the market.
whats the action like in your neck of the woods, zed?
This could get choppy... like I said they will not want a print up here for EOM.

We opened medium to strong in the ~+3% area but have sold down all day. ~-1% right now, could end up ~-2/3%.
 

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Call me crazy (Many of you already do :) ), but this action is seriously bullish. Gold making new highs. Does a move like that typically stall? Seems to me that is the perfect time to buy. I see 2600 in gold before a pause and then onto 5k. Thats by years end.
Silver is powering up and firing on all cylinders right now. 50 by end of Aug is possible and if silver powers through 50 and onto new highs then 100 by years end is possible.
Whatever it is you are smoking is probably detrimental to your health at your age...
 

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Zed

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SI July delivery = 16239 contracts to date. Waiting on OI numbers.
OI now 1,264 +233 contracts!

We could get into the 17K range on delivery this month!