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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

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Charts look near parabolic on some issues and overbought but I am not so sure about the sentiment currently. Most are looking for a correction and while it is obviously overdue the thing most think unlikely is a continued move up. Probably be best to at least tag the breakout 21.25 Silver but that might have to wait.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/guest/guest080120.html
 

Strawboss

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Rising price into a declining OI is strong evidence of a short covering rally...

Looking at your chart - it looks like the last few weeks - OI was increasing - which would suggest the BBs were trying to absorb the demand with fresh digital gold...but last week they capitulated.

If my interpretation is correct - that would suggest that the strength of the money flowing into gold combined with the historic demands for delivery off the COMEX have the BBs scared to be on the wrong side of this move and they are working to stand aside...

A good analogy is the 3gourges dam...think of that as the BBs and the rain and flood waters as the demand for gold...the dam is under tremendous pressure and there is growing concern whether it will be able to hold back the waters...so - in an attempt to buy time - they opened the flood valves in an attempt to bleed off the excess... I think that is what is going on currently.

It remains to be seen whether this will continue - or whether we will get intervention from CBs via 3am beatdowns, increased margin requirements, etc...
 

dpong

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dpong

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AAPL refuses the momentum chart narrative. Beats earnings. Announces 3 for 1 stock split.

[Thus, humility is restored to the universe.]

J0SJr5W6.png
 

dpong

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SPX Monthly new all-time high on a closing basis. Strong looking monthly candle.

[I'm glad to be in this market. Double-glad to have an exit plan.]

hTLGGeXt.png
 

dpong

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Dollar (DXY) closes the month below annual momentum structure at the zero line. Theoretically this is LT bearish.

[Not that we don't deserve a ST bounce.]

cnq0aymA.png
 

dpong

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Maybe the US will beat earnings estimates (GDP) next quarter and announce a 3 for 1 split on the $$$.

[Or did they already do the 3 for 1 split...?]

[I got my check. Didn't you?]
 
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He may very well be right but this is what I mean by the sentiment despite what the charts look like not being wildly bullish at this point. IF he's right maybe Silver dives to 20-22 then goes sideways for a fairly short time then runs to 35. Then we get the real correction down into the mid low 20's and everyone who missed the move jumps on and we go off to the races.
 

dpong

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dpong

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SilverCity

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Michael Oliver – No Correction For Gold Until At Least $2,100, Gold Price To Hit $2,600-$2,900 By End Of Year

Our expectation for gold is that it probably won’t get any serious wobble until the price gets to at least $2,100. But realistically we are looking for at least $2,600-$2,900 by the end of this year. We thought that silver would be $30 at that point but we changed our mind. We don’t know where silver might be when gold gets into that high $2,000s zone. We suspect silver will be way up into the $30s.


https://kingworldnews.com/one-of-th...r-no-correction-for-gold-until-at-least-2100/

SC
 
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Zed

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Zed

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Hold metal. Trade paper.
I remember having my skin peeled and being rolled in salt for saying as much not so many years ago! .... but YES, use the tools that the market gives you, the big bad bullion banks certainly do!
 

dpong

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That sounds as crazy as Kashkari.

[Gold to $80,000 in 2025. Hmmm... maybe there is a connection.]

[The crazier the Kashkari's are, the less crazy 80K becomes.]
 

dpong

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Kashkari did not say, but might has well have said: The debt doesn't matter because we owe it to ourselves. He almost said that.

[What he did say is that an increase in the personal savings rate gives us a "cushion" to help the less fortunate. What voodoo is this?]
 
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Zed

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My gold target for this run has gone from being laughably high to laughably low...

Apparently 5.4K is passé!

Sinclair is on for 2025 but still @ 50K, although I thought I heard a higher number. I thought I hear 80K ... @dpong is that Sinclair or some other pundit?

Don't know how many remember Joe from Gold Eagle and the other pm boards from back in the day but here is his latest on Gold Eagle.

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-inverse-us-dollar
The US has to fundamentally change the structure of the dollar to hyperinflate otherwise the debt expansion would just be too insane to deal with politically and internationally. Maybe they do but if they unhook UST's from the USD real interest rates would fly and the USD plummet. (JMO) I can't see that they'd blow off reserve status that abruptly and then what fills the void, nothing is ready in terms of supporting financial system.

I just don't see how they pull off hyperinflation.
 

dpong

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This is from the Gold-Eagle Goldrunner post that Lancers posted. So I didn't hear Jim say it. Goldrunner said he said it.

"Shortly after the onset of “Covid”, the Fed started printing massive amounts of US Dollars all over the place. Soon after that, Jim Sinclair came out with a video and stated that with so many Dollars being printed to uphold the economy that Gold would eventually rise up to his top target of $80,000 an ounce."
 

dpong

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Once you start talking numbers like 50K or 80K how could you possibly guess what the actual number would be? [Things would be too crazy to predict anything at that point.] But if you are JS you have to have *some* BIG number to make splashes. Any really big number will suffice.

[It's all about persuasion.]

[Persuasion 101. Step 1: Get their attention. That is always step 1. Reference Scott Adams, persuasion expert.]
 
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Uglytruth

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Sinclair did an interview with I think Hunter a few months back the number for Gold was around 80K maybe 78K. Years back he said Gold goes up there and stays up there.
So jewelry would not be made of gold at that point.
 

Zed

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Once you start talking numbers like 50K or 80K how could you possibly guess what the actual number would be? [Things would be too crazy to predict anything at that point.] But if you are JS you have to have *some* BIG number to make splashes. Any really big number will suffice.

[It's all about persuasion.]

[Persuasion 101. Step 1: Get their attention. That is always step 1. Reference Scott Adams, persuasion expert.]
@ 80K you'd have to question the validity of measuring price in USD, may as well be $Z really... you know, what is a loaf of bread worth?
 

Zed

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Zed

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Gone to stage 4 COVID restrictions down here, it's not making much sense to the people. If I follow the law I am probably @ greater risk.
 

savvydon

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Gone to stage 4 COVID restrictions down here, it's not making much sense to the people. If I follow the law I am probably @ greater risk.
This COVID stuff is off the chain. It is real, and a player in the mix for sure, but from where I sit, it is not the 800lb gorilla in the room that media and politicians are making it out to be.

I'm still alive, fwiw... one day at a time.