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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Goldhedge

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What a mess the banks and these psychopaths have created.
Most people don’t even comprehend banks and what they do and have done.

The eyes glaze over at any mention of monetary policy... even though their life depends on it....
 

Zed

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Flat but green down here today! Waiting onna bunch of crazy yanks to decide what they are gonna do!
 

jelly

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Northern Dynasty caught in a political battle and taking it on the chin today!

For EXK it's do-or-die time. Resting on support at the gap. It either cracks hard or it rallies. Volume has been steadily decreasing, so it supports the rally perspective. Keeping an eye on this one, looking to buy in if it cracks.
exk.png
 

d-lod

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Northern Dynasty caught in a political battle and taking it on the chin today!

For EXK it's do-or-die time. Resting on support at the gap. It either cracks hard or it rallies. Volume has been steadily decreasing, so it supports the rally perspective. Keeping an eye on this one, looking to buy in if it cracks.
View attachment 177990

Conventional wisdom, it will fill the two window gap between 2.9 to 3.5.
 

Voodoo

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NAK is really taking it on the chin. Surprising that Trump would block the Pebble Mine.
 

Voodoo

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Hoping the silver miners will crack here so I can scoop up more at discount prices. :lashing:
Agreed but I need some time to figure out my stink bids and start getting those into the market.
 

Goldhedge

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Northern Dynasty caught in a political battle and taking it on the chin today!
What political battle is that?
 

Strawboss

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Hoping the silver miners will crack here so I can scoop up more at discount prices. :lashing:
The silver miner index broke trendline support today...Also note that the bottom Bollinger band is declining - opening up a downtrending move.

1598306597037.png
 

Lancers32

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What do you figure the miners have another 10-15% down in them? Since they didn't run the last little bit with the metals I would think the downside would be fairly subdued.
 

Strawboss

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What do you figure the miners have another 10-15% down in them? Since they didn't run the last little bit with the metals I would think the downside would be fairly subdued.
Speaking of the miners generally - as a class...IF the upside move has completed...and the fibonacci retracements on many of them look indeed like a top is in place for the moment...then I would expect the miners to decline to one of the retracement levels...38%...50% 62%...

There are a couple that look instead like bullish pennants are forming - Pretium being one of those.

Same thought process applies to gold and silver too. I would expect a retracement of the entire move from the March lows if we have indeed put in the top for the move...

Whether that top has indeed been put in place is not yet decided...and so we wait to see.
 

Strawboss

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Adding to the above thought...in a bull market - the miners sometimes lead the metals at turning points...

We recently saw the miners not really going up much even with the metals continuing to climb higher...I would expect to see the same sort of behavior once we complete the correction - i.e. the miners leading the metals higher.

Another possibility is that the corrective low may happen on a single day - leaving a big wick...

The positive sentiment for gold is a very real thing and its showing up on the charts...it almost feels like gold wants to correct/digest the move from March...but - the strong buying isnt allowing that to happen just yet.

And as an added bonus...here is a random thought that just crossed my mind...

A lot of the gains we have seen in gold have been accomplished with very little increase in the OI on the COMEX. Normally - you see OI expand with price rises...and yet that hasnt really happened here the way you would expect...that suggests a short covering...

So now onto the thought...

In order to open a new long gold futures contract - there needs to be a seller. What happens when there arent sellers? OI cannot expand...

There is no more hedging going on from the miners themselves...they arent selling future production - so that is no longer a source of supply the way it once was...

You would expect the Large Specs to have greatly increased their positions...and yet they havent. You would expect the Commercials to have ramped up their selling...and yet they havent. At least not in a way visible on the COT reports...

Is it possible that the banks are afraid of being on the short side of naked futures contracts?
 

Voodoo

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Zed

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Conventional wisdom, it will fill the two window gap between 2.9 to 3.5.
... and fast if that support breaks.
 

Zed

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Zed

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.. these should be lows with divergent internals (STO etc...) if my idea plays.
 

Lancers32

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I just looked at the gold chart. I'm not sure which way it will break. I know Maund is bullish. I'll take his word.
You might want to read the past few articles he wrote in which he suggested much lower targets for CDE and HL. So it is always 50/50 with most of these guys. some are better than others but do your own due.
 

ErrosionOfAccord

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Buckle up and put your head against the head rest!!!?

Powell set to deliver ‘profoundly consequential’ speech, changing how the Fed views inflation
PUBLISHED MON, AUG 24 20204:06 PM EDTUPDATED 3 HOURS AGO

Jeff Cox@JEFF.COX.7528@JEFFCOXCNBCCOM




KEY POINTS
  • Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak Thursday during a virtual version of the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming, conference.
  • He is expected to outline what could be the central bank’s most active efforts ever to spur inflation back to a healthy level.
  • “Average inflation” targeting means the Fed will allow inflation to run higher than normal for a period of time.
  • The effort will be the reverse of former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker’s rate hikes instituted to quash inflation in the 1980s.

Jerome Powell, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, speaks during a Senate Banking Committee hearing in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Wednesday, Feb. 12, 2020.
Andrew Harrer | Bloomberg | Getty Images
History will remember Paul Volcker and Jerome Powell as standing on the opposite ends of the inflation canyon, with the former taking desperate actions to try to tamp it down and the latter expected this week to announce an unprecedented effort to crank it back up.
Volcker, the Federal Reserve chairman from 1979-87, ushered through a series of inflation-busting interest rate hikes that dragged the country into recession but won the fight against pricing pressures and spurred a powerful economic recovery.

Powell, the central bank chief since 2018, is likely to detail a set of measures aimed at pushing inflation higher amid a coronavirus pandemic that has dragged the U.S. economy into one of its darkest hours.
While the average consumer might find it absurd to want to raise the cost of living, central bankers and economists see too little inflation also as a problem. It often reflects a slow-moving economy with a low standard of living. On top of that, the accompanying low interest rates give policymakers little wiggle room when crises happen and there’s a need to loosen policy.
That’s why Powell, who will speak Thursday during a virtual version of the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming, conference, will outline what could be the central bank’s most active efforts ever to spur inflation back to a healthy level. The speech is titled “Monetary Policy Framework Review” and wraps up a yearlong examination both among central banks officials and with the public, during a series of open events, on what policy should look like in the future.
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“The expectations are pretty high to get something meaningful on Thursday,” said Tom Graff, head of fixed income at Brown Advisory. “This is probably a historic speech.”
One phrase Powell is likely to use is “average inflation” targeting.

Simply, it means that the Fed, which has pegged 2% as a healthy level, will let inflation run higher than that for a while if it has spent a considerable time beneath that level. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge has stayed below that level for all but two years since the Great Recession ended in mid-2009.
It’s a mirror-image reversal to Volcker’s inflation-busting and sets the stage for a pivotal policy move.
‘Consequential and risk-friendly’
“Heading into Jackson Hole we are confident Chair Powell will use his speech Thursday to tee up a profoundly consequential and risk-friendly move to soft inflation averaging at the Fed’s upcoming September meeting,” wrote Krishna Guha, head of global policy and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI. Guha and his team expect the Fed to “seek a moderate inflation overshoot during the recovery phase of this cycle” as a way to avert “Japanification,” or an extended period low growth marked by weak inflation.
Along with the inflation move, the Fed also, as indicated by the minutes from its July meeting, appears likely to reinforce its commitment to full employment. The unemployment rate currently sits at 10.2%, down from the 14.7% peak in April but well above the 3.5% pre-pandemic level in February.
Powell’s speech could include a vow as well to keep policy as accommodative as possible until inflation and employment are both stabilized.
To fulfill both pledges, the Fed will need to commit to keeping rates anchored near zero until the goals are met. Where the move to what it calls the “zero lower bound” had been previously considered unusual, it now will become standard practice at least until the Fed meets its mandate.
“Central bank credibility is crucial. Currently, they don’t have any credibility that they can or are willing to allow inflation to be higher than 2%, and that’s a problem,” Graff said. “Actions are going to speak louder than words. The market’s going to have to see them not hike interest rates even as unemployment gets much lower before they’ll believe it.”
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Why the need for more?
One question Powell and the Fed may have to answer, though, is why is it necessary to keep making aggressive policy moves.
After all, stocks collectively have recovered all of their pandemic losses, the jobs market is continuing to recover while still well away from its previous levels, and the economy, while slowed by a reduced pace of reopening, also is expected to rebound smartly in the third quarter.
“Considering what the market’s doing, and as each day goes by that we are getting closer to an effective vaccine and effective therapeutic, the Fed should be focusing more on taking steps back from what they’ve done rather than continuing with the pedal to the metal,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “With accusations of the Fed blowing bubbles again, it’s time that they rationalize the continuation of these facilities that may have been necessary in March but are no longer necessary now.”
Still, the market appears to be counting on more Fed help.
When the July minutes were released Wednesday, markets took a step back as anticipation that they would disclose more about inflation measures as well as potential actions to control the yield curve, a movement that now appears dead. The Fed’s multiple liquidity and lending programs instituted during the current crisis, while lightly utilized compared to their potential, helped stabilize markets and instill confidence that the central bank would backstop the economy as it fights through the Covid-19 pandemic.
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The minutes “did not provide the hand holding that investors were expecting on future Fed policies,” Michael Wilson, equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, said in a note. Further disappointments could fuel “a growth scare followed by a rate scare over the next several weeks/months that could finally give us that first tradable correction in the US equity indices.”
Powell, then, has a tight line to walk as he both outlines the Fed’s future and provides justification for continuing the institution’s extraordinary intervention in the markets and the economy.
“It’s historic for the Fed to announce a different way to approach monetary policy,” Graff said. “I don’t think they should do more than what they said they would do. Anything that would be aimed at goosing the financial markets probably doesn’t have much upside to the real economy, and could create stability problems down the road.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/24/pow...ech-changing-how-the-fed-views-inflation.html
 

Strawboss

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Goldhedge

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dpong

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And a new lower low. Reference AG and SILJ.

[Walking down the stairs.]
 

Lancers32

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Gold and Silver flat miners down a bit more than a bit. damn these guys are good. Miners leading the metals down now or is this a big buying opp? I think we go lower SILJ AG CDE HL but not that much.
 

Lancers32

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Nice rallies off today's bottoms. When these miners bottom with large daily hammers expect to pay up if you are going to buy that day's close. I got stink bids in they go below that I hold the bag for a while. SILJ 12.50-13.50
 

dpong

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Reference AG, SILJ: That might have been a low. Next we might make a high. Whether it is a lower high or a higher high might tell us something soon.

[If that was a low.]
 

Zed

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