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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

dpong

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dpong

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There was no sell signal: SILJ

chart-17.png
 

Strawboss

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5% of $16 billion is $800 million.

$800 million / $1975 oz is 405K ounces of gold...

On the COMEX - that would be 4050 contracts standing for delivery...

And thats just one small pension fund...

Imagine the potential...

The fly in the ointment is they will probably "buy" paper gold instead of the real thing...
 

Zed

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August Gold closed out with 49,026 contracts delivered. Not shabby but not a record!

September predictably opened with 1928, OI sits @ ~ 3070 so it's a slow month.

October is @ an OI of 63K so it is a little more interesting.... but December is the big game with OI @ 403,976, hmmmm December, I wonder?!

These next two months the paper shorts have the least real risk and the biggest window for recovery by selling December, if they are going to open up and try an overwhelm the long side it should be in these 60 days. It should start in earnest very soon if they are going to allow for the longest possible period to cover any newly opened shorts prior to December delivery.

IDK but I'm guessing that if they don't defend hard here they basically can't and that means the bulls will have to run the course much like in 2011.

JMO

2c

etc...
 

Zed

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The fly in the ointment is they will probably "buy" paper gold instead of the real thing...
Those that advise on the gold side in the institutional space seem to fall on the conservative side as they are selling a defensive play, hence the high delivery rate this year. While they may not get it delivered to the office they could well get it vaulted privately as they have the scale (unlike us) to do it. There are many in the gold space that will get in their ear over it. Don't be surprised if they do it properly, this isn't a short term long speculation for them, this is insurance and they have every incentive to make sure it is solid.

Again JMO...

... and December delivery has the potential to change a lot of attitudes to futures, could be HUGE.
 
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Zed

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September and October tends to be dreadful months to own gold. If we have a sideways pattern then the upside is going to be enormous.
Yes... the gap to December in the delivery schedule is the culprit IMO.
 

Zed

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The next buy signal at 30 fiats will pressure that first resistance line.
View attachment 178877
I had a FIAT once, it was a lot better than the local "wisdom" said it was! For a 4 it went like a cut cat, the V8 boys did me on the straights but in the corners they could not touch me and it was ALL corners where I grew up. Man that pissed them off, beaten by a little "wog box"!

FIAT 124 Special T ... basically the 124 Sport shoved into the sedan body. In 71 it was a bit of a sleeper with almost 95hp, as funny as that sounds these days! It was good car... then they sold the tooling to the Russian's.... lada de da!



Sorry! As you where, carry on!
 

Zed

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Off -2% on the open here, nervous trade.
Gone +~1% with 2:40 hr left to trade, they are cheering up with the tick up in POG today.
 

Voodoo

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Interesting talk on Bloomberg TV, for a change, on Tesla. ZeroHedge is starting to get recognition for the good work they actually do. Pay attention guys, that's what real journalism looks like.
 

dpong

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SILJ: The higher high was short-lived. [But we made one.] Now let's see if we can make a higher low.

[Walking up the stairs.]

2BuON5vR.png
 

Lancers32

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If you are not leveraged this might be a time to turn off the streamer. I think unless spot Silver can manage to close over $28.50 we might get the last leg down here into the final shakeout lows. We manage to turn this around here today I think we can make a run to $35 silver. Miners acting strange but could be a shakeout attempt. We'll see.
 

jelly

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Looks like a bounce off 2000.
Regardless, volume in the miners hasn't been as strong as I'd like to see, if this was indeed a breakout of a consolidation.
 

Cigarlover

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If you are not leveraged this might be a time to turn off the streamer. I think unless spot Silver can manage to close over $28.50 we might get the last leg down here into the final shakeout lows. We manage to turn this around here today I think we can make a run to $35 silver. Miners acting strange but could be a shakeout attempt. We'll see.
I noticed the same thing. I was expecting some nice follow through with the miners today and didn't get it. My conclusion thus far is we are staying in the trading range of 26-29. I wouldn't mind seeing a leg down to the 21-23 range before the next pop. No idea if it will happen but it's what I would like to see. :).
 

Zed

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dpong

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Some times even Ringo gets to sing.
 

Strawboss

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Uncle bucky looks like it wants to attempt to come out of the basement for a bit. The downtrend (dotted line) isnt gonna give it a lot of room to manuever - but if it gets a close above it - we could be in for a significant rally in Uncle Scams currency unit. The bollinger bands make me think more of a sideways move is likely in the next couple weeks...

Gold seems to be locked into the USD inversely at the moment...

1599006408942.png
 

Strawboss

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Gold usually has a pretty strong correlation to real rates (I am using TIP as the proxy)...but not always...I have been trying to identify signals within the relationship to see if there are any that are reliable for trading purposes...this chart is simply a hypothesis and not really usable as a trading indicator...posting it for feedback and hopefully some further analysis...

Analysis that is definitely relevant as real interest rates are a very strong driver for gold...

1599007640053.png
 

Zed

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jelly

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The set up in gold, the short term consolidation which is projecting a move higher, was just too easy. Making money in gold is never that easy. The set up says we should be going higher. It hasn’t failed yet, but knowing Gold, I would not be surprised if we get a few more weeks of correction Instead of a breakout higher.
I’m on the fence. Just waiting for Gold to decide which way it goes.