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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

dpong

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Gary say: BUY THE DIPS.

[NASDAQ. We'll see.]
 
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A low this month makes sense for the pm complex. IF A equals C we should see a move down to the $1800ish level. If C extends it could get pretty ugly. Not sure if the conviction of the bulls has to be tested to that extent or not. This month marks 40 years from a very important high in Gold. Right around the Equinox.
I like that chart. if gold can't decline below 1900 or have shadow declines lower than that that would be extremely bullish if the dollar rallies at the same time.
 

dpong

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As a person long the general stock market, I got to practice my sphincter muscle exercises today.
 

Lancers32

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I hear dat. A deer in the headlights day for me. Ever know something was going one way but as you watch the day unfold you know you are wrong. Ended up FOMOing in at half the daily range CDE HL. Best to just turn the frickin computer off for a few years.
 

dpong

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I hear dat. A deer in the headlights day for me. Ever know something was going one way but as you watch the day unfold you know you are wrong. Ended up FOMOing in at half the daily range CDE HL. Best to just turn the frickin computer off for a few years.
Can't blame you. The miners were very tight today.
 

dpong

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WTT system sold a loser last week (VIVO) so we get to buy a new stock at next week's open (BLMN). Bloomin' Brands owns several large restaurant chains including Outback, Carrabba's Italian Grill, Bonefish Grill, and Fleming's Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar.

[Large restaurants likely lost some Mom & Pop competition, assuming this shite show ends at some point.]

[Meh, who cares what they do. Just buying the chart.]

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Lancers32

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Your loss is my gain. :D
SP bottomed in 1974 the Dow in 1982. While we have had major selloffs these markets have been in bull mode for 46 and 38 years respectively.
Some say the pm bull rally is getting long in the tooth after a 5 month move. I think odds favor larger gains in Gold and Silver than in the SM. So no I do not choose to play in that sandbox.
 

Lancers32

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When even Adam Hamilton is looking for more downside it might be time to load. Gold has closed over the old highs for 5 consecutive weeks Silver closer to the local highs than the $23.50 flash bottom. Miners are bought up on every dip. Rather be a few weeks early than a day late. We SHOULD correct but it doesn't seem like the pm complex wants any more of that.
 

jelly

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SP bottomed in 1974 the Dow in 1982. While we have had major selloffs these markets have been in bull mode for 46 and 38 years respectively.
Some say the pm bull rally is getting long in the tooth after a 5 month move. I think odds favor larger gains in Gold and Silver than in the SM. So no I do not choose to play in that sandbox.
Oh I understand now, I thought you meant shorting the general markets.
 

Goldhedge

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I sure miss Louky's charts...
 

dpong

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NASDAQ, SPX, and market leaders all have long wicks pointing down.

58v38YiX.png
 

Zed

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I sure miss Louky's charts...
Yeah, I dunno where he is @. I would like him to join in a little more fully and openly, respond to PM's etc and get a little more real with us. So far he has seemed to have an agenda, maybe that is all he was here for.... I dunno. Interesting guy anyway, time will tell.
 

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When even Adam Hamilton is looking for more downside it might be time to load. Gold has closed over the old highs for 5 consecutive weeks Silver closer to the local highs than the $23.50 flash bottom. Miners are bought up on every dip. Rather be a few weeks early than a day late. We SHOULD correct but it doesn't seem like the pm complex wants any more of that.
Yeah, maybe... still expecting a gut check soon with around $100 down in gold... a short sharp affair.
 

dpong

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dpong

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From about a week ago:

 

dpong

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Hmm... I wonder what gold is thinking...
:ponder:

[Me, I'm thinking bullish triangle.]


chart-18.png
 

Zed

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@Lancers32 keep an eye on the ratios between asset types. Here we have junior miners generally strengthening against seniors while gold pulls back. It paints a picture of correction/strength in my mind. I figure that anyone who is on the hook short comex gold is busy soaking up as much long side leverage as they can to offset any losses on the comex. So if we look where the high downside risk should be when gold corrects and we find buying instead of selling we can infer that some decent size is confident where you'd normally expect nerves.

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Since the panic low it has taken more and more GDX to buy GDXJ and now GDXJ is ticking up against GDX while gold is soft.

To me this speaks to strength.

IDK but...
 

Zed

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Zed

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Yeah, maybe... still expecting a gut check soon with around $100 down in gold... a short sharp affair.
... and it may not mean much for miners! 2c FWIW.
 

dpong

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In Mike Oliver's interview he has a hunch that gold will be in the upper 2000's, just below 3000 by the end of this year.

[PS. US has labor day, Monday holiday.]
 

Lancers32

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@Lancers32 keep an eye on the ratios between asset types. Here we have junior miners generally strengthening against seniors while gold pulls back. It paints a picture of correction/strength in my mind. I figure that anyone who is on the hook short comex gold is busy soaking up as much long side leverage as they can to offset any losses on the comex. So if we look where the high downside risk should be when gold corrects and we find buying instead of selling we can infer that some decent size is confident where you'd normally expect nerves.

View attachment 179652

Since the panic low it has taken more and more GDX to buy GDXJ and now GDXJ is ticking up against GDX while gold is soft.

To me this speaks to strength.

IDK but...

Long CDE and HL from Friday. I initially thought we would go lower but these shares don't seen to want to cooperate. Bull market early in the run these prices should appear cheap down the road. Or not.:bombs 8:
 

Zed

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Long CDE and HL from Friday. I initially thought we would go lower but these shares don't seen to want to cooperate. Bull market early in the run these prices should appear cheap down the road. Or not.:bombs 8:
They are cheap given the historical relationship to gold, HUI was @ this level when we cracked $600 Gold!
 

Zed

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In Mike Oliver's interview he has a hunch that gold will be in the upper 2000's, just below 3000 by the end of this year.

[PS. US has labor day, Monday holiday.]
That'd make me happy for Xmas.
 

Zed

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ASX Gold Tribe ~+2% this AM. Apparently we are over Friday nerves and feeling better about the week ahead!
 

Zed

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Gold Daily --> Looking @ the width of the Bollinger Bands, the red line is where you tend to see reversals hit and new moves tend to start from the green line. The grey line in the middle is where you'd expect more of a corrective move to develop. It still really just looks like a big fat old consolidation that has a little more time to run but really could resume trend @ any point. That said I don't discount a hard day or two with long tails probing the 1800's. IMO that is probably going to be a hold the nose and buy event.

BTW. If we look @ this as consolidating the move from the COVID crap out it targets 3K @ 100% (traditional target) and @ 161% we hit 3.5K (the over run target in a strong move)... so, it could be a Merry Christmas indeed.... or a Happy New Year. Probably New Year, you know, it is 2020 and all.

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Strawboss

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Zed

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~+1.8% EOD here. A smidge down on the 2% but OK for a Monday with no really strong lead.
 

Zed

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Hearing some buzz about this concept, the next big thing, the tokenization and trading of basically anything using the block chain. Capital raising without the stock market, possibly the end of the stock market. A promising F1 driver could tokenize their career path to fund their start in the sport, a developer could tokenize an apartment building. No naked short selling, no uncertainly over who holds the certificate to your stock, trade anything and everything from your phone. Raise capital for ANYTHING that the market will support.

If it catches hold, and I think it will, it will be huge.

 

Zed

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PS> OverStock is looking to list through tZERO, ex Patrick Byrne the naked stock short selling guy. He is no longer @ OverStock but it is interesting that they are involved.
 

Zed

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Off ~1.3% EOD, cautious trading, we close then gold gets a woody. Classic stuff!

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