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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Strawboss

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How about a basket of CDE HL SILJ and AG for those who don't have the stomach for a lot of risk?
Yeah - like investments that leverage the price of silver dont have risk...

:Out::dduck::dduck::dduck:
 

jelly

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First majestic has always been my favorite silver miner, but their performance since the March lows has been disappointing. I made good money in call options on them, but as for buying actual shares lately, I've been buying AXU instead. Seems to be more leveraged than AG.
 

Zed

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Zed

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The Tribe are giving back ~1.75% off the bat this AM. It will probably get worse into the close being Friday and all!
Off ~-1.6% EOD so we didn't get too much more nervous as the day progressed. Friday's have become soft again after this run up, not insanely nervous like they once where but a little cautious since we bested 2K.
 

dpong

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Tupperware Cup & Handle update:

[It doesn't look so outlandish, does it..?]

JZScLbgK.png
 

dpong

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dpong

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jelly

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S&P really struggling to stay above the 50-DMA. Really looks like it's going to fail and fall from here. Waiting to see how this closes....
I think gold is waiting to see what happens to the general markets before it finds direction - up or down.

spy.png
 

dpong

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I want it too bad for it to close below the 50.
 

dpong

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If the weekly SPX had closed below it's 10 week moving average (like the 50 dma) my system would have pulled all stop losses up to the 10% level, and buddy I am ready for that to happen.

[Unfortunately: "No"]
 

dpong

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Strawboss

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I am probably early - but I am now 95% in...picked up some CDE, AG, PVG call options today.

Only 3 more weeks til end of quarter...and 3rd quarter results for the miners are gonna be stellar. I would expect the miners to rise in advance of that.

I have been expecting price to correct the move from the March lows...but - so far it has refused to do so and has instead consolidated mostly sideways...

Another consideration is that the few weeks that entailed the March low will be coming off the 200dma in the next 3-4 months...which means the 200dma is gonna start rising swiftly as they fall off resulting in a steeper incline...and that will put a rock solid floor to any potential deep corrections.

Seasonally - we are entering a pretty good time of year for goldies...

The upcoming election debacle and the fallout from that is gonna be EPIC and its anyones guess how that plays out.

Once flu seasons kicks into high gear - I am sure we will get round 2 of the lockdowns and all the other BS...

I am keeping about 5% liquid in the off chance we do get a waterfall move in gold. I will use that to buy shorter term call options and play the rebound...

So thats the situation...the strategy...the rationale...and the plan B...
 

dpong

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I'm holding.
 

Lancers32

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I am probably early - but I am now 95% in...picked up some CDE, AG, PVG call options today.

Only 3 more weeks til end of quarter...and 3rd quarter results for the miners are gonna be stellar. I would expect the miners to rise in advance of that.

I have been expecting price to correct the move from the March lows...but - so far it has refused to do so and has instead consolidated mostly sideways...

Another consideration is that the few weeks that entailed the March low will be coming off the 200dma in the next 3-4 months...which means the 200dma is gonna start rising swiftly as they fall off resulting in a steeper incline...and that will put a rock solid floor to any potential deep corrections.

Seasonally - we are entering a pretty good time of year for goldies...

The upcoming election debacle and the fallout from that is gonna be EPIC and its anyones guess how that plays out.

Once flu seasons kicks into high gear - I am sure we will get round 2 of the lockdowns and all the other BS...

I am keeping about 5% liquid in the off chance we do get a waterfall move in gold. I will use that to buy shorter term call options and play the rebound...

So thats the situation...the strategy...the rationale...and the plan B...

We'll find out a lot about the next moves Monday but I think you might be early. Gold and Silver held up fairly well today but the miners look like crap right now. We'll see whichever way it goes is fine with me.
 

Strawboss

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Lancers32

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Looking like crap and being completely washed out are two different things. Now I see CDE is a dime above the 50 day MA. You got a couple of bottoms coming into play around $7.20. But I think given enough time I would agree that 7 and a half bucks for this stock is a good gamble. With you I own this stock.
 

Varmint Hunter

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Savage
 

Lancers32

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Silver. Maneoc64 had Michael Oliver on the other day he mentioned the $25.90 level in silver as important. Quite a few Ellioticians are eyeing the $25.80 as the area of a breakdown. IMO the way the miners traded on Friday it not short term positive but that is what makes a market. The correction is just a bit over 4 weeks long.
 

Zed

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Everyone who is open long popular US stocks needs to keep in mind that we are coming into the season where money managers get very protective of open profit... year end bonuses depend on that as yet unrealized profit. Any shift in sentiment is greatly amplified by this tendency to protect this pool of at risk profit. Keep a very close eye on the shifts here...


...because...

...you know...




2020.
 

Goldhedge

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Housing Market - Has The Housing Crash Started?!
Aug 22, 2020
Neil McCoy-Ward
 

Lancers32

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Most people will find it impractical to sell their house. First off you need someplace to live and if housing prices don't crater you gotta feel stupid as hell buying back in. Selling isn't free and I don't plan on moving again. All I have to worry about from here on out are property taxes. That might be a big bite in the ass though.
 
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The Feds are going to keep base interest rates low into 2023. By the time we get there houses will appreciate by 6%+ based on 2.1% inflation long term. I think interest rates are going to stay low into 2030s, Feds can't pay back debts that easily if its in 2 trillions $$$. Some housing areas in US is too pricey.
 
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Strawboss

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Big Picture perspective...

1600079329567.png
 

BeefJerky

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Voodoo

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Those property taxes are shameful.
Agreed, but look at the assessed value. Those taxes are 10% of the assessed values. Yikes. And that is a far out suburb.
 
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Agreed, but look at the assessed value. Those taxes are 10% of the assessed values. Yikes. And that is a far out suburb.
my house was assessed at 1.5% increase and then the house across my street was assessed at 26.5% increase with an addition on the house. one city nearby couldn't pay for the rising sewer costs so they are planning a 25% hike on property taxes (not school or local taxes) yikes!
 

Lancers32

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Waiting on that kind of thing. They reassess every 3 years and we just got one this year. Successfully appealed the assessment. Not gonna be so lucky next time. Hope there is nothing in the charter that would allow an assessment to be done sooner but the way this is going nothing nothing would surprise me. Raise the local sales tax and raise the state sales tax for starters then a VAT if Mighty Joe and his crew of misfits gets in. All I can say with his VP pick I am glad as all hell I was born white.