• "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding high finance, politics, constructionist Constitution, and mental masturbation of all types"

The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Zed

The Bullish Bear.
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
17,960
Likes
18,504
Location
Watching the Sideshow!

Zed

The Bullish Bear.
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
17,960
Likes
18,504
Location
Watching the Sideshow!
Gold Daily- The trends, consolidation pattern and breakout I've been watching. Looks like we are on the way to 2.5K to me. Maybe cautious until we hit new highs... but I find it hard to be negative here.

Untitled.jpg
 

Zed

The Bullish Bear.
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
17,960
Likes
18,504
Location
Watching the Sideshow!
Add to the "we must protect profit" EOY mentality...
 

Attachments

Zed

The Bullish Bear.
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
17,960
Likes
18,504
Location
Watching the Sideshow!
Ten Year Note - Yield Monthly! BBand width is @ the widest it has been in my life, by no small margin, and since the great bond bull market began. Watching that down trend line (red, right of chart)... we look due for a big rally, a big one, maybe next year. Maybe the USD blows off high in the interim. It all looks closer than it has ever been... 2021?!

Untitled.jpg
 

Zed

The Bullish Bear.
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
17,960
Likes
18,504
Location
Watching the Sideshow!
The End Game Ep. 7 - Edward Chancellor

September 15, 2020

Bill and Grant welcome historian, journalist and author Ed Chancellor to The End Game.

Ed’s remarkable book, Devil Take The Hindmost, chronicles three centuries of bubbles and manias and, in this wonderful conversation, he shares his thoughts on how and why they end, the historical parallels previous bubbles share with today and the likely problems the world faces at it moves through The End Game.

Entertaining, insightful and packed with historical relevance, this is a conversation you won’t want to miss.
 

Zed

The Bullish Bear.
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
17,960
Likes
18,504
Location
Watching the Sideshow!
^^^^^^^^^^

When rates rise it will be despite all actions to the contrary.


They have created a monster and it will turn on them... JMO.

 

savvydon

Site Supporter
Site Supporter
Platinum Bling
Joined
Dec 14, 2010
Messages
3,781
Likes
4,093
I'm trying to understand the process and how it affects gold prices.
I think the point of the article was that there has been a sharp increase in delivery of the metals from the Comex this year. That points to the possibility that physical demand is way up, meaning that many parties out there want their physical in hand. The implication is that Comex deliveries are a proxy for measuring demand for metal. If demand is up, and supply is static, or even down, the natural path for metals prices to take is up. Of course that assumes the numbers are real and actually reflect what they are being represented to mean.
 

Varmint Hunter

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Midas Supporter ++
Joined
Apr 10, 2010
Messages
2,288
Likes
8,403
Silver at the 17 mark.
 
Last edited:

Strawboss

Apocaloptimist
Site Mgr
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
8,614
Likes
17,294
^^^^^^^^^^

When rates rise it will be despite all actions to the contrary.


They have created a monster and it will turn on them... JMO.

True.

However - what you are describing is the end, end, end, end game...

Rates will only rise when no one is willing to hold US Treasuries at any price...

Until then - the Fed will buy any Treasuries offered in order to keep trading within their acceptable band...

1600347066835.png
 

Lancers32

Silver Miner
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
709
Likes
856
Location
Down South
Impressive day for the miners. Share prices were actually lower early this morning with Silver down a quarter than they were a bit later with Silver down $.70. By quite a bit. Big move coming soon I think it will be up but as crazy as the past month has been who knows?
Bears say the bulls are running out of time the bulls say the bears are running out of time.
 

Zed

The Bullish Bear.
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
17,960
Likes
18,504
Location
Watching the Sideshow!
Good news. Only 860,000 people filed for unemployment last week. At this rate in 4 years no one will have a job.
Well, the people who count the people who need a job will always have a job!
 

Zed

The Bullish Bear.
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
17,960
Likes
18,504
Location
Watching the Sideshow!
Slightly up EOD for the Tribe ~0.75% expected mildly down to be honest, begin Friday and all and the soft lead from the US.

?!
 

Varmint Hunter

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Midas Supporter ++
Joined
Apr 10, 2010
Messages
2,288
Likes
8,403
EiMWAh8WAAEjRfs.jpg
 

D-FENZ

Gold Chaser
Midas Supporter
Platinum Bling
Joined
Jan 24, 2011
Messages
2,934
Likes
7,109
The pennants in both the gold and silver daily charts don't look right to me either. The breakouts are a little too close to apex to be able to make any sense of them. In fact they both did the same thing about a week or so ago and seem to have formed another longer pennant within the same formation. Both times the bars snuck out at the apex. Could be the start of a trading range or worse but who knows...
 

Zed

The Bullish Bear.
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
17,960
Likes
18,504
Location
Watching the Sideshow!
The pennants in both the gold and silver daily charts don't look right to me either. The breakouts are a little too close to apex to be able to make any sense of them. In fact they both did the same thing about a week or so ago and seem to have formed another longer pennant within the same formation. Both times the bars snuck out at the apex. Could be the start of a trading range or worse but who knows...
The breakout is weak. That is not ideal! Still expecting a gut check pre December.
 

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
2,657
Likes
2,699
S&P Weekly chart closed below the 10 week moving average. So for my Weekend Trend Trader strategy I pull the stop losses from 40% up to 10%.

Below is SPX and also AMZN with the new stop loss applied.

6z7IA0Ad.png


b0OgrQNN.png
 

Uglytruth

Midas Member
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Apr 6, 2011
Messages
11,268
Likes
21,750
The pennants in both the gold and silver daily charts don't look right to me either. The breakouts are a little too close to apex to be able to make any sense of them. In fact they both did the same thing about a week or so ago and seem to have formed another longer pennant within the same formation. Both times the bars snuck out at the apex. Could be the start of a trading range or worse but who knows...
Please help us less educated. No one knows what the future holds and in these times it has never been truer.
I keep seeing people / chartists read the tea leaf's to see the future. I under stand news affects stock proces, volume, bollinger bands and such but people are always talking about shapes and pullbacks. That is the part that I always get lost as I don't see how anyone can "predict the future" except those with insider trading knowledge................ Is it just nothing more than a huge guess?
 

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
2,657
Likes
2,699

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
2,657
Likes
2,699
Tupperware was in a bullish pennant before it began screaming higher.

[Good Mojo.]

[I predicted good things for TUP. I drew that red arrow on the chart way before it happened.]

[If it hadn't happened, I would not be showing you this chart, so... You decide.]

ZmXPMdoR.png
 

Goldhedge

Moderator
Site Mgr
Sr Site Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
52,852
Likes
99,932
Location
Rocky Mountains
I'm no chartist, but this was on JSMineset... yesterday.


Screen Shot 2020-09-18 at 4.58.24 PM.png
 

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
2,657
Likes
2,699

Lancers32

Silver Miner
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
709
Likes
856
Location
Down South
It was actually a fairly narrow day just looks bad when you factor in the afternoon dump. Seen it before never know which way it goes. Could just be profit taking. I could live with an early morning low on Tuesday.
 

Strawboss

Apocaloptimist
Site Mgr
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
8,614
Likes
17,294
This afternoons swoon in gold happened after the COMEX close at 1:30p. The volume dries up on the GLOBEX and makes it much easier for them to attack price...

What that tells me is that they cant do it during normal market hours and resort to this...that is evidence that they are weak - and that their attempts to push price lower are not working...it simply creates a dip that gets bought into.
 

Lancers32

Silver Miner
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
709
Likes
856
Location
Down South
I'm no chartist, but this was on JSMineset... yesterday.


View attachment 180898

I watched the latest Bill Holter on Palisades Radio. He made it a point to say we should get our money out of the system and hold physical Gold and Silver then goes on to say the miners should return many multiples over the course of time. Many multiples of a currency that will become worthless? You can't have it both ways can you?
 

Lancers32

Silver Miner
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
709
Likes
856
Location
Down South
Silver and the miners bottomed March 16th topped give or take August 7th. So that's like 144 days right? So why would a less than 5 month old bull need 3 months to correct?
 

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
2,657
Likes
2,699
Gold began the bull market in late summer 2018. So the bull market is 2+ years old. Silver is just catching up. It will consolidate as long as gold is consolidating.

NSytf9V2.png
 

Cigarlover

Midas Member
Midas Member
Midas Supporter
Joined
Dec 18, 2011
Messages
8,752
Likes
17,681
be thankful for the pause. Good time to refine positions.
 

dpong

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
2,657
Likes
2,699
If you were to mentally disregard the silver crash of 2020, just take an eraser to it, then silver started its bull market at the same time as gold's. Summer 2018.

[But the crash did happen, of course.]

Jk9cGXAW.png