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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Goldhedge

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If you fold a piece of paper 50 times how thick would it be?
Truth is you can't fold it more than 9 times....
 

Lancers32

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So I guess it is a given the correction is not over and we will trade at $1776. :robber: WTF knows if Gold can recapture $1920 on this move we are done I would think and will head higher.

Not too much on the miners I watch except for one. CDE HL SILJ not up much MTA up a bit more. I know Casey owns the stock but I love this one.

Would be funny is Sinclair is right in the end and Gold goes to $50K or wherever and just stays there while Silver runs with Gold till near the end and shits the bed. Would be fitting. :winks2: Miners for the first few years of this then PSLV then PHYS.
 

Zed

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Looks like the ASX Gold Tribe will be ~-0.5% for the day down here.
 

Zed

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Buying time is approaching, dust off those buy lists and start looking at the charts daily!

Zeal092520B.gif
 

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Zed

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dpong

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Lancers32

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Same pattern yesterday which ended up resolving to the upside. Gold/Silver up miners basically flat. Into basically the fourth day of rising prices. Not feeling that lucky.
 

dpong

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SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG). WTT and I bought at 150.04. Currently trading at 231.41. Up 54.23% currently.

Trailing stop loss @ 10% off the weekly highs.

gxLeobXR.png
 
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dpong

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By and large, Lancers, the system works. ["In this environment..."]

[Currently I'm holding 11 winners and 1 loser. The loser is down -6.33%.]

Stats from yesterday:

2020_Positions-5.jpg
 
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dpong

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By and large, Lancers, the system works. ["In this environment..."]
In the crash it did not work so good. It did stop the bleeding from going on forever, but ouch.

[You can see the crash in this chart.]

PercentageChart.png
 

gnome

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By and large, Lancers, the system works. ["In this environment..."]

[Currently I'm holding 11 winners and 1 loser. The loser is down -6.33%.]

Stats from yesterday:

View attachment 182304
Nice trading! I assume most of those positions were entered after the march lows?
Might want to keep some of that SolarEdge for the long term. After a long consolidation, solar is entering a mega trend. Currently 2% of electricity gen worldwide, and could easily go to 40% or more in 20 years...that's 20x, not even counting growth in power demand as switch to electricity vehicles. Low interest rates for foreseeable future will help boost it, as solar costs are all up front.
 

gnome

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In the crash it did not work so good. It did stop the bleeding from going on forever, but ouch.
Stop loss orders?
 

dpong

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Stop loss orders?
@gnome I am trading a non-discretionary trading system called Weekend Trend Trader. It was published in a book by Nick Radge.

It is a weekly system, so we only buy and sell at the open on Monday. It is low maintenance in terms of time and effort.

Every trade is mechanical meaning if A and B happen to stock X you buy it on Monday's open. If C and D happen to stock X you sell at the open on Monday.

The reason it works is because 1) you are always buying stocks in an established trend. 2) You always trim the losers before they are big losers. 3) you always let your winners run higher.

Because it is a weekly system, the trailing stop losses are mental. If you get a mid-week crash, you don't sell until Monday. So there's that.


EWp3VSuVcAAoTYW-2.jpeg
 
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savvydon

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Miners not believing the rise in metal prices.
Neither am I. I would have liked to see a little more blood in the streets for this last metals sell off. We are still moving more or less in reverse correlation with the dollar. I won't really believe that we are off to the races until that trend flips. At any rate, I won't complain if we see another green day tomorrow. I have some more options that are getting close to ripe for profit taking. They are far enough out, though, that if we reverse at this point I'll bag hold for a bit.
 

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My oscillator is headed to buy territory, looks similar to this period last year.

Untitled.jpg
 

Zed

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Risk taking is creeping back into the gold miners with GDXJ starting to strengthen on GDX.

sc (1).png
 

Zed

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Gold found the gas pedal!

Good night and do try and keep it going!
 

Lancers32

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Flip from yesterday Silver miners showing a decent amount of strength considering the drop in the price of Silver. First Majestic making a marginal new low but hanging around $9.50. Hmm.
 

dpong

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Strawboss

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Patience my fellow deplorables...it is perfectly ok to have a month (or even 3) of consolidation/correction...we had a LOT of excess exuberance to bleed off...and so far - we have been able to do it with gold correcting about 10% or so? So might there yet be a few % of downside remaining? Sure. Does it matter in the big picture? Probably not.

The miners are not yet confirming...me thinks that we are gonna see a day with gold down and the miners up on BIG volume...might be too obvious of a signal...but - it might happen...

Speaking of big picture...this looks pretty nice...

 

Zed

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I'm gonna get a bit more excited when AUD Gold hits what is a well defined trend. Not far now... looks like about Nov 3!

:dduck:

Hmmmmmmmmm.

Untitled.jpg
 

Zed

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Patience my fellow deplorables...it is perfectly ok to have a month (or even 3) of consolidation/correction...we had a LOT of excess exuberance to bleed off...and so far - we have been able to do it with gold correcting about 10% or so? So might there yet be a few % of downside remaining? Sure. Does it matter in the big picture? Probably not.

The miners are not yet confirming...me thinks that we are gonna see a day with gold down and the miners up on BIG volume...might be too obvious of a signal...but - it might happen...

Speaking of big picture...this looks pretty nice...

Way back when I did my spreadsheet to project the likely targets for gold and silver I used Fibo projections. For this leg I came up with a best case of $5400 and a likely target of $4300. This was well before we had the 2011 high which from memory the method under cooked the gold projection but nailed the silver one.

Treating this as a big flag and using the Fibo tools for projection (they didn't exist when I built my original spreadsheet) these are the possible numbers going forward. Coincidentally $5400 comes up at the level I would call the max potential, even though that now sounds conservative. BTW it is also around the same ballpark multiple that gold achieved in the 70's bull from soup to nuts. I was considered nuts when I first talked about that target, then the pundits went further, now it is considered laughably low. I think it is realistic.

BTW I also had a similar experience in the 90's tech wreck, early 90's I was considered mad, mid 90's I was considered slightly conservative, late 90's I was a dinosaur that just didn't get it.... then BOOM! I learned a lot. :-)

Anywhooo, yeah he is right, basically it is a big flag/pennant type consolidation and break. We are looking like a firm target of $3750 with and outside chance of $5400. My take is that if we correct from $3750 we are probably in for one more leg up. If we hit $5400 it is probably over.

I may change my mind on that but I have the sense that crypto ends this gold bull when government gets involved, and that isn't so far off.

Untitled.jpg
 

Lancers32

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Your last statement I am not sure I understand. I think the governments will go with digital currencies but why would that end the Gold bull? Would that also end Bitcoin and the like?
 

Zed

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Your last statement I am not sure I understand. I think the governments will go with digital currencies but why would that end the Gold bull? Would that also end Bitcoin and the like?
I'm not exactly sure because I have no way of knowing how they will play this... but going crypto implies they fix the currency and it develops a secure real rate of return. That ends the bull market, no reason to own gold if you can get a good real return elsewhere.

.... and yes, it should kill the reason to own BTC. The one caveat is the development of lending platforms that can secure a rate of return on BTC that you can't get on gold. These things are developing but where that goes?! Legislation etc could kill it all.
 

Uglytruth

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^^^ That's funny!