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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

dpong

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I'm buying 8 positions Monday for the WTT. Randy is buying 9 positions so he is buying one I am not. And Randy is the lucky one of us.

AVNS here I'm showing it as P&F with box size of 1.27 (ATR 20) setting. Nice looking chart.

[That Randy is so lucky, I think.]

chart-28.png
 

Zed

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Micheal Oliver Interview.

He appeared on RealVision, behind the paywall, last week. It was a good interview, he discussed his techniques and how they differ from mainstream T/A. Basically a more kind of statistical approach to momentum.
 
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dpong

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Micheal Oliver Interview.

He appeared on RealVision, behind the paywall, last week. It was a good interview, he discussed his techniques and how they differ from mainstream T/A. Basically a more kind of statistical approach to momentum.
I'm a fan of his work, because it is so effective. My brother-in-law was his business partner for 20 years, I discovered by accident. Another of my good friends was his hairdresser while he lived in NC. Recently moved to Colorado. I had dinner with him once and he gave me a copy of the one book he has written. It is called The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism. So he is even my brand of libertarian.

When I went to dinner with him he told me to buy GDX (his shorthand for the gold sector) in early 2016 I think. So I made money in 2016, who didn't? In return for his favor I sent him a check for $100 out of the blue in appreciation. When I did that he put me on as a permanent subscriber and told me "not to tell anyone" because it was the cheapest subscription anyone had ever gotten. What a great guy. I am very up to date on his work. His techniques plus his market experience make him a major force for understanding the markets and their interplay.
 
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dpong

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dpong

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He is saying that if the DXY trades below 91 this year (about 92.40 next year) expect a *rapid* drop to the mid 80's.

NghxZv8z.png
 

dpong

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I'm a fan of his work, because it is so effective. My brother-in-law was his business partner for 20 years, I discovered by accident. Another of my good friends was his hairdresser while he lived in NC. Recently moved to Colorado. I had dinner with him once and he gave me a copy of the one book he has written. It is called The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism. So he is even my brand of libertarian.

When I went to dinner with him he told me to buy GDX (his shorthand for the gold sector) in early 2016 I think. So I made money in 2016, who didn't? In return for his favor I sent him a check for $100 out of the blue in appreciation. When I did that he put me on as a permanent subscriber and told me "not to tell anyone" because it was the cheapest subscription anyone had ever gotten. What a great guy. I am very up to date on his work. His techniques plus his market experience make him a major force for understanding the markets and their interplay.
[Name dropper.]
 

Lancers32

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Going with these two dogs. Was last week a fake out and we get strength in the $? Wouldn't surprise if we get a trading turn early in the week if we head higher tonite/tomorrow.
 

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dpong

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Micheal Oliver Interview.

He appeared on RealVision, behind the paywall, last week. It was a good interview, he discussed his techniques and how they differ from mainstream T/A. Basically a more kind of statistical approach to momentum.
Thank-you for that!
 

dpong

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SmartBombStudios-justice.jpeg


[No reason.]
 

Strawboss

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Gold has clearly broken out from the 2 month downtrend. It has sufficiently corrected down to the upper fibonacci retracement level. I would imagine that we will soon be retesting the all time closing high - unless we have another major leg downwards (which we will have to wait and see)...

1602450067386.png


Of interest to me is the fact that the miners are even stronger than gold...whereas gold was able to move down and bleed off the excess and touch the fibonacci level...the miners didnt. Not even close. Usually - if gold retraces 38% of a move...the miners will retrace 50% or even 62%. As you can see...they only retraced about what...20% or so??

See for yourself...

1602450464489.png

My original thesis was that the miners would lead gold higher - but it is the other way around.

Below is a weekly view of GDXJ using the 9 thingie...if it keeps rising - I am gonna need to figure out how to add additional vertical space to the chart...

1602449409006.png

Looks like a re-test of $63 is up next. I think if we can get a close above it the next target will be $72.

And since gold seems to be inversely trading pretty much in lockstep with the dollar for the moment...here is where its at...

1602451083403.png


On balance...it definitely seems like we are gonna have a nice rally in the metals and miners over the next few weeks. 3rd quarter earnings are on deck in the next few weeks and they are gonna be very nice...and if gold does stage a nice rally to retest the previous highs - the miners should have a nice wind at their backs...

And that isnt even taking into account the sheer madness this country is about to enter into in the coming weeks with the election debacle, riots, flu season/COVID remergence (whether real or imagined), another couple/few trillion in emergency spending by .gov, yada yada...

Of the gold miners - Eldorado is first out of the gate leading the pack higher at the moment...

1602451824042.png


And on the silver miner side...MAG Silver is leading the way...

1602451882166.png
 

Lancers32

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Zed

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Down here today we have a really Luke warm response to Friday's action in the US. +~0.5/9% generally.
 
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Zed

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Just listened to a Real Vision interview with Jeffrey Gundlach. Smart guy... likes gold, likes cash, waiting for a very cheap opportunity in equities (PE in single digits!) in the next 24 months (sooner or later, has no clue). Says "dance near the door" if you are in equities! Doesn't hate BTC but isn't a fan at all.
 
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Zed

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~+0.5% EOD ---> The gold tribe are not convinced by Fridays action. Ran up in the AM with the keen kids and sold down in the PM with the pros. Like me they are feeling a little cautious here.
 

Strawboss

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dpong

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SunRun (RUN) was a sell for 144% gain.

[I didn't own it.]

mbG4vMwz.png
 

gnome

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SunRun (RUN) was a sell for 144% gain.

[I didn't own it.]

View attachment 184107
Very nice move!
RUN is about 5% of solar etf TAN, so I own a tiny wee bit.
At risk of being repetitive, I think solar is easily a 20x market in 10 years.
Would love it if this falls back to 50dma, but don't think it will for a while.
Screen Shot 2020-10-12 at 9.29.54 AM.png
 

dpong

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Very nice move!
RUN is about 5% of solar etf TAN, so I own a tiny wee bit.
At risk of being repetitive, I think solar is easily a 20x market in 10 years.
Would love it if this falls back to 50dma, but don't think it will for a while.
Still holding SEDG which is under some pressure today. Sitting with 96% gain.

The future does look bright for solar.
 

gnome

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dpong

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Nice. I like their sound.
 

Zed

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Gold Daily... I'm thinking sideways this week, then a breakdown into the lower line of the flag and support. Once there I'm hoping to see divergence with the various oscillators, RSI, Stoch... mine etc. That timeline is about a week or so shy of the election. That gives us a week to lick wounds and get on with it. Hopefully the next run up will look more convincing.

Perfectly happy to be wrong on this one, but, its a US election so there will be oil poured on the water at the very least.

Untitled.jpg
 

Goldhedge

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Zed

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Gold 4HR - Suggests that the 1915 to 1900 area has to hold IF we are to rally from here. By Friday any break below current levels will be short term negative.

As per the current up trend and support.

Untitled.jpg
 

Zed

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Oh shit...

I just had a closer look at the NASDAQ and where we are in terms of nutty overboughtness....(yeah it IS SO a word).

So...

It seems...

We are @ about Oct 1995....

... much to my SHOCK this implies that a NASDAQ target of 110K is possible by about 2024!

Don't shoot me, it is just the numbers.

Maybe getting long tech is a decent play.

I dunno.
 

Zed

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Oh shit...

I just had a closer look at the NASDAQ and where we are in terms of nutty overboughtness....(yeah it IS SO a word).

So...

It seems...

We are @ about Oct 1995....

... much to my SHOCK this implies that a NASDAQ target of 110K is possible by about 2024!

Don't shoot me, it is just the numbers.

Maybe getting long tech is a decent play.

I dunno.
... it was also during a period of DXY strength. So there is that. A tech blow off may be a feature of this crack up boom sort of scenario. After all the money going to the US in a dollar strength scenario has to go somewhere and who wants bonds @ these rates?

Armstrong said the money would flow to bluechip stocks, tech royalty appears to be the new blue chip.

As a tech wreck veteran and survivor all I can say is prepare for some extreme insanity! Assuming this is the case.

Watch the USD and play the tech stocks?
 

Cigarlover

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... it was also during a period of DXY strength. So there is that. A tech blow off may be a feature of this crack up boom sort of scenario. After all the money going to the US in a dollar strength scenario has to go somewhere and who wants bonds @ these rates?

Armstrong said the money would flow to bluechip stocks, tech royalty appears to be the new blue chip.

As a tech wreck veteran and survivor all I can say is prepare for some extreme insanity! Assuming this is the case.

Watch the USD and play the tech stocks?
With my play money accounts all I trade is the nasdaq futures. Crazy buying today. Just when you think it's up enough for the day it keeps adding another 100 points.