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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Zed

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With my play money accounts all I trade is the nasdaq futures. Crazy buying today. Just when you think it's up enough for the day it keeps adding another 100 points.
If the USD runs up the best play inside the US may be just that.

Gold might be on fire for us lot out here but not so much for you.
 

Cigarlover

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If the USD runs up the best play inside the US may be just that.

Gold might be on fire for us lot out here but not so much for you.
I don't have deep pockets so I cant really play these the way I would like to. I like the leverage you get but it can work against you pretty fast as well.
Lets see what Dec brings in the metals markets. Could be lucrative. I do watch the futures on those but very difficult to play them with real money IMO. Unless you have deep pockets and can weather the volatility. Compares o the indices they are very thinly traded and I imagine thats why they move so rapidly when they do.
 

Zed

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I don't have deep pockets so I cant really play these the way I would like to.
IF it goes to 110K you might end up with deep pockets along the way!
 

Zed

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I'm asking myself what will drive the NASDAQ to 110K when TLSA is ALREADY @ insane multiples NOW.

One answer I have is "fractional share ownership" via RobinHood and the like. I'm listening to a guy be interviewed who was talking to his son for an hour about what he was long and short etc, a list of a few dozen companies basically. He got down to tin tacks and asked... so son, how much do you have in the market? ---> $25 was the answer.

Just think about it. How many idiots have $25 to put to work. It's all play money, nobody gets hurt if it goes tits up so you don't DYODD and you buy whatever seems trendy @ whatever price and whatever multiples. It simply doesn't matter much! Once you have a 100m people sticking spare change into the market, because you know savings banks suck wind, you are talking real money.

This could get REALLY, REALLY, REALLY STUPID. It was bad enough in the 90's with cheap online trading coming on line. Now we have free trading from a phone with fractional share ownership ---> What could possibly go wrong?

This is going to generate silly momentum... prepare to suspend ALL belief and just go for the ride.... do remember to jump out before the car hits the wall!
 

Zed

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Shit... I think I just turned bullish on TSLA and APPL, because you know, STUPIDITY has come to town.
 

Cigarlover

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I'm asking myself what will drive the NASDAQ to 110K when TLSA is ALREADY @ insane multiples NOW.

One answer I have is "fractional share ownership" via RobinHood and the like. I'm listening to a guy be interviewed who was talking to his son for an hour about what he was long and short etc, a list of a few dozen companies basically. He got down to tin tacks and asked... so son, how much do you have in the market? ---> $25 was the answer.

Just think about it. How many idiots have $25 to put to work. It's all play money, nobody gets hurt if it goes tits up so you don't DYODD and you buy whatever seems trendy @ whatever price and whatever multiples. It simply doesn't matter much! Once you have a 100m people sticking spare change into the market, because you know savings banks suck wind, you are talking real money.

This could get REALLY, REALLY, REALLY STUPID. It was bad enough in the 90's with cheap online trading coming on line. Now we have free trading from a phone with fractional share ownership ---> What could possibly go wrong?

This is going to generate silly momentum... prepare to suspend ALL belief and just go for the ride.... do remember to jump out before the car hits the wall!
At 110k I could finally afford a Koenigsegg :).
If there's nowhere else to go then the rest of the world runs to the US. real estate and stock market. Maybe we get hyperinflation in both. Hard to imagine 110k though when I look at the charts and it looks like 6500-7000 is where it should be.
 

Zed

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At 110k I could finally afford a Koenigsegg :).
If there's nowhere else to go then the rest of the world runs to the US. real estate and stock market. Maybe we get hyperinflation in both. Hard to imagine 110k though when I look at the charts and it looks like 6500-7000 is where it should be.
I know what you mean!
 

dpong

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DXY up big today.
 

Lancers32

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Two curious news items. Goldman calls for $30 Silver. Trump makes a negative comment about Bitcoin on Twitter. The first not so curious but the second...
 

dpong

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Here is something "awkward" about the WTT system. EBS is trading below my stop loss. But per the rules, I must wait until next Monday to sell. That's bad because it could go much lower by then. And that's good because it could pull itself back up above the stop loss by Monday.

[It's the waiting, man...]

CAIsRZB8.png
 

dpong

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That would kill me to see that kind of drawdown but rules are rules.
As best I can figure, that is a feature because the system always swings for the fences. Always shoots for a home run.
 

dpong

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Look how close the system came to selling SEDG.

tVl3Kbaf.png
 

Strawboss

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As best I can figure, that is a feature because the system always swings for the fences. Always shoots for a home run.
It reminds me of poker...You want to play hands that have the ability to crack stacks...and sometimes - you dont know if you are best or not until the river...and it can cost a chunk to find out...

Being diversified though within your trading system keeps the losses manageable and of course there is no way to know whats gonna happen between now and Friday...
 

dpong

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It reminds me of poker...You want to play hands that have the ability to crack stacks...and sometimes - you dont know if you are best or not until the river...and it can cost a chunk to find out...

Being diversified though within your trading system keeps the losses manageable and of course there is no way to know whats gonna happen between now and Friday...
Exactly right you are!
 

dpong

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Here's another one we almost sold: TREX.

[Waiting until Monday worked out on this one.]

[During the 2020 crash, waiting until Monday was not good.]

0C2exY7z.png
 

dpong

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I bought SleepNumber Beds (SNBR) on Monday. It feels about as silly as buying Tupperware.

[We'll see.]

Tur2riNH.png
 

Lancers32

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Either the dip buyers know something the metals don't or they know less than nothing. Metals should rally a bit short term very but last week's Gold breakout is in jeopardy now. The miners never reached washout levels today.
 

dpong

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Speaking of WTT and the crash... Reference here the S&P 500. WTT sold almost everything on Monday, March 2nd. It started back buying on Monday, April 20th with 1 share of AMZN. It took many weeks to build the full portfolio of 20 stocks.

[The first week of the crash felt like a very long week to me.]

05tR06Xg.png
 
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dpong

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Here's how the 1 share of Amazon is doing. [+44% currently.]

[OK, I'll stop now.]

dLTapipd.png
 
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Lancers32

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Either the dip buyers know something the metals don't or they know less than nothing. Metals should rally a bit short term very but last week's Gold breakout is in jeopardy now. The miners never reached washout levels today.
That was a little harsh didn't come out quite right. With other than new money I don't see how you could have bought the 1st half hour today. Definitely good for a flip but you probably should have been long already don't ya think? I think PSLV might be a good bet for a flip but the miners look toppy in the short term. Might get a move back to 25 Silver in the short term. I think the guys who were looking for a C leg down and gave up on the breakout Friday could look pretty foolish. At any rate it has been tough trading this for sure.
 

dpong

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This is going to generate silly momentum... prepare to suspend ALL belief and just go for the ride.... do remember to jump out before the car hits the wall!
Ha ha... EMBRACE THE STUPIDITY!!!

[It might just make you rich.]
 

Lancers32

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Speaking of WTT and the crash... Reference here the S&P 500. WTT sold almost everything on Monday, March 2nd. It started back buying on Monday, April 20th with 1 share of AMZN. It took many weeks to build the full portfolio of 20 stocks.

[The first week of the crash felt like a very long week to me.]

View attachment 184284
IF you were long it was an eternity.
 

dpong

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Zed

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Interestingly the ASX gold tribe have opened flat and stayed flat today.
 

Zed

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Up ~+1% for the ASX gold tribe as we head into the last hour.
 

Cigarlover

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dpong

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When it comes to Bitcoin I'm Warren Buffet.

[Old fogey.]
 
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dpong

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*Gold* miners are bid higher in pre-market trade. Silver miners appear to be about flat.
 

Strawboss

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I remember when gold was a couple of hundred lower than current - and we were trying to figure out Louky's 9 thing in relation to the 1899 price level.

1+8+9+9 = 27

I am thinking its a significant level...and am thinking the weekly level will be more meaningful than a daily...