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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Au-myn

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I'm not that familiar with P&F charting. Does it give a target on this move?
Targets / price objectives (horizontal or vertical count) in the Three Point Reversal of Stock Market trading method are used at final tops and bottoms. A new vertical or horizontal count may be taken after another sell signal is given and the final low made. When this pattern is complete a vertical count may be taken.

In the case of this chart the first PO was calculated in July 2019 at 1,360 on a Bullish Signal formation. PO 2020. The second PO was March 2020 on a #2 Double Top formation buy signal at 1,560. PO 2120.
 
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Strawboss

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Anyone seen a credible source on this idea that the blank ballots mailed out where micro-dotted?
I actually did some checking on that.

I was curious to see if I could figure out who supplied the rolls of paper to the ballot printers - or if I could find some RFP or something that would have the specifications. I did find a curious NY Times magazine article on the ballot creation process - and there were a couple of inferences of "security" - but nothing defined.

So - I cant say it isnt true...but - I dont think it would be the paper they would target. I think it would be the ink. If they were putting some sort of radioactive marker in the watermarks - it would be in the ink - not the paper.

Thats about as far as I got in my "research" if one can call it such...
 

Strawboss

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What can I say I'm a sucker for a good sales pitch and EB Tucker always delivers the goods. Bought a few months ago.
Real time intelligence sharing would be nice...

Just sayin'

For a friend of course...

:beer:
 

Zed

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I actually did some checking on that.

I was curious to see if I could figure out who supplied the rolls of paper to the ballot printers - or if I could find some RFP or something that would have the specifications. I did find a curious NY Times magazine article on the ballot creation process - and there were a couple of inferences of "security" - but nothing defined.

So - I cant say it isnt true...but - I dont think it would be the paper they would target. I think it would be the ink. If they were putting some sort of radioactive marker in the watermarks - it would be in the ink - not the paper.

Thats about as far as I got in my "research" if one can call it such...
I think microdots can be placed in ink...

We can buy this...

https://www.microdotaustralia.com.au/product-page/microdot-spray-can-medium

So they can be that small.
 

JayDubya

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5 Important Gold Charts to Watch Right Now
by Marin Katus
From Doug Casey's International Man

In such volatile times, let’s see if gold is whispering anything to us.

Chart 1: The Gold to S&P 500 Ratio

In this chart, you’ll see how the price ratio of one ounce of gold to the price level of the S&P 500 has varied over the years based on the monthly high closing price of gold.

The higher the ratio, the "more" expensive gold is relative to the S&P 500. The opposite is true when the ratio is below one.

A return to the 50-year average ratio would mean a gold price of $2,176.84, which would be a 14% increase over the current spot price of gold. This means gold is undervalued by 14%, relative to its 50-year average ratio to the S&P 500.



In other words, gold has a long way to run before it gets to its multi-generational average level with the S&P 500.

Even at an all-time high price of $2,063.02 an ounce:

  • The Gold/S&P 500 ratio is still lower than the 50-year average, and
  • it’s still 4.5–9.6x lower than it was during periods of double-digit inflation.

While the S&P 500 continues pushing its own all-time highs, it’s worth noting that only 239 of its 500 components—less than half—are up year-to-date.

Only 72 of the S&P 500 companies have outperformed gold, and only 52 have outperformed the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX).

Miners Freeport-McMoran (NYSE:FCX) and Newmont (NYSE:NEM) are the 50th and 51st best-performing stocks in the index, both up over 39% year-to-date. They are the only two base and precious metals mining companies in the S&P 500.

Chart 2: Inflation-Adjusted Gold Price

When gold hit its nominal all-time high of $2,063.02/oz on August 6th, 2020, it was only its 24th best closing price when adjusted for inflation (indexed to 2012 dollars).

Real, or inflation-adjusted, prices can be calculated simply by using an inflation indicator.

The most well-known measure is the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

In this case, we’ll use the GDP Price Deflator, which is considered a more robust measure of inflation.

If we look at gold’s top 10 daily closing prices after adjusting for inflation, we can see that they were all either in January 1980 or between August and September 2011.



In 2012 dollars, spot gold would need to hit $2,349.01/oz to match its inflation-adjusted all-time high set on January 21, 1980.

At the recent gold spot price of $1,867/oz, gold would need to rise $443.31, or 23.3%, to match that previous all-time high.

This chart might superficially suggest that gold’s current prices aren’t all that impressive.

But inflation measures have their limitations.

That point is worth noting any time asset prices hit all-time highs—even in nominal terms.

In either case, the difference between previous inflation-adjusted highs means that gold still has plenty of additional price upside.

Chart 3: Relative Valuation of Gold Miners

It’s no secret that mining stocks provide great leverage to the underlying metal they produce.

But are gold miners still a bargain in this market?

The short answer is yes, they are, when compared to almost every other industry in the stock market.

This is especially true when you consider that the long-term outlook for gold is bullish.

In the chart below, we look at Price to Forward Cash Flow Per Share (Forward CFPS) multiples, which tell us where stock prices are relative to the cash flows they’re expected to generate over the next 12 months.





Gold miners, and especially senior producers, have benefitted greatly in this bull market.

Yet, the multiples for the GDX and GDXJ, the VanEck Gold Senior and Junior Gold Miner ETFs, haven’t shot up as much as the other major market indices.

In fact, GDXJ is below its 10-year average.

When you hear the words "frothy market," just look at the NASDAQ and how its Price/Forward CFPS multiple is almost double its 10-year average; or how the big six tech stocks (FAANMG) make up 42% of the NASDAQ Composite’s market cap and 25% of the S&P 500, as of this writing.

Chart 4: Gold Price vs. Fed Balance Sheet

It’s not the most correlated data set, especially since the Federal Reserve hasn’t changed its gold holdings since April 2006; but the growth in the Fed’s balance sheet shows the extent of the massive stimulus packages.

Unlimited QE drives down yields. Thus, the Fed’s exploding balance sheet can be viewed as a key supporter of increasing gold prices. Gold becomes a more attractive safe-haven investment when Treasury’s have historically low yields.




While the Fed has continued to disappoint many investors by not committing to a policy of yield curve control and rejecting a negative interest rate policy, low rates will likely persist until the end of 2022 at the earliest.

The Fed has staked its entire credibility on that timeline.

As a gold investor, it’s worth keeping an eye on central bank balance sheets as well as inflation expectations and real yields.

Chart 5: "Paper Gold ETF Fund Flows"

It’s been a record year for gold and also a defining year for gold-backed ETFs like the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) or Sprott Physical Gold Trust.

In a year of economic devastation, rampant speculation in financial markets, rock bottom yields, and unprecedented changes to monetary policy orthodoxy—gold ETFs have been the vehicle of choice for major hedge funds and individual investors to de-risk and also benefit from surging gold prices.

With less than two months left in the year, gold ETFs across the world have already surpassed the previous annual record of gold ounces purchased, 20.7 million ounces (set in 2009), by over 45%.

In fact, that record had already been surpassed mid-way through the year, by June 30th. The additional 11 million ounces purchased since then have been icing on the cake.




Going for Gold

Based on all of the charts we’ve shown so far, all signs point to a bullish long-term outlook for gold and gold companies in the coming years.

Of course, that doesn’t preclude a reversal and consolidation of gold prices in the short-term.

If that does happen, there will be an incredible opportunity to build up your portfolio for the upcoming gold bull cycle.
 

Zed

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HUI to gold ratio....

Untitled.jpg


This chart implies that gold miners could be over 4x higher with gold priced as it is right now and not be outside historical precedent. In other words, without gold going much higher there is 400% + potential here. So that is a rough bottom line bench mark. Double the gold price and take this to the ratio high of ~0.6 and we are looking at 800%+ gains in gold shares. All within sober predictive range considering what is out there in terms of gold price predictions! Not forgetting that this is the index and individual stocks will kill that performance.
 

Zed

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Can you 'splain that for a simple fella?
The Juniors are stronger that the majors when that chart ticks up, when that happens gold stock risk appetite is higher.
 

Lancers32

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Silver - Not yet confirming gold or "broken out" as I see it.

View attachment 187657

I agree with you 100%. I see some charts on Twitter that show Silver has broken out but I prefer your chart. We still have resistance $25.80-$26.00. Doesn't mean we can't gap through resistance Monday but I think we go lower first. I would be surprised if the miners gave up more than 25-33% of move from the previous week's lows to Friday's highs. So a stock like CDE might be a buy $8.30-8.50 something like that.
 

dpong

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All major news sources have called it a Biden win. NewsMax states they will await the litigation efforts.
 

Zed

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All major news sources have called it a Biden win. NewsMax states they will await the litigation efforts.
It is gonna be a shit storm if the courts pull this away from the Dem's.

Given 2020's extremes I could imagine that happens, the country goes NUTS violence, the military steps in a says we will run the joint because you kids are fighting and there it stays for a while.

My tin foil hat wearing alter ego wonders if this isn't "kabuki theatre" with a destination in mind and already mapped out!

This whole thing, year in fact, has been bizarre. The things that this virus have allowed have been so convenient for so many in the various bureaucracies it truly has me wondering about the true state of the world.
 

Lancers32

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I hear Don Jr. wants to make another run with Pop in 2024. In other news the Red Sox are planning on thawing out Ted Williams.
 

Lancers32

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It is gonna be a shit storm if the courts pull this away from the Dem's.

Given 2020's extremes I could imagine that happens, the country goes NUTS violence, the military steps in a says we will run the joint because you kids are fighting and there it stays for a while.

My tin foil hat wearing alter ego wonders if this isn't "kabuki theatre" with a destination in mind and already mapped out!

This whole thing, year in fact, has been bizarre. The things that this virus have allowed have been so convenient for so many in the various bureaucracies it truly has me wondering about the true state of the world.
Biden won however he did it. Courts won't do a thing.
 

Zed

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Zed

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Lancers32

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I am amused reading some tweets on Twitter from people who I thought understood WTF is going on. Climate change and all that crap as if humans have anything to do with it. One guy who is a decent macro trader is relieved Biden won now his children will have a planet. Seriously? WTF are you smoking.

The Democratic party has a handful of Progressives who bend to the will of Pelosi a Dem in name only. Cheering bungholes in the streets of Phila. thinking these two will give them $20 an hour to work in Mickie D's. Two sides of the same coin they just do not get it. Nothing will change. Country was locked down under Trump the middle class was decimated under Trump. This contested election is just more misdirection and theater.
 

Zed

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2.5% on the open with that begin solidly across the board today. No real outliers up or down... this isn't typical for my portfolios. I dunno what that says, maybe it is more professional than private buying? The Biden bump is in play for the gold world?! BTC looks pretty solid.
 

Zed

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Zed

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2.5% on the open with that begin solidly across the board today. No real outliers up or down... this isn't typical for my portfolios. I dunno what that says, maybe it is more professional than private buying? The Biden bump is in play for the gold world?! BTC looks pretty solid.
2% EOD after a swing low.
 

savvydon

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Wha happen? Shakeout before the breakout?
Thats what I'm betting. Happened in a flash with no change in the dollar. Has all of the markings of a pro shakeout. Seems like a desperate move to me. The only thing they will shake out of me is more buys if this thing gets ugly enough.
 

Lancers32

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Bang zoom to da moon on Friday today maybe we go to $20. :2 thumbs up: Purty charts instincts not so much. One problem which could be rectified quickly is breakout in Gold not Silver. Miners holding fairly well in pre but that might not mean much. IF you believe BTFD.
 

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savvydon

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Makes sense to me the miners holding up well so far. That would be a confirmation that this morning’s PM beat down is just noise... we c.
 

savvydon

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This is pretty impressive. Gold down over 3%, silver off nearly 5%. You could see where that might bum a mining shareholder out. I'm going to try and not lose the faith here. That's what this is all about.
 

dpong

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S&P futures up 4.51% currently. And that's like, a lot.